Scoring chances summary: Game 76 - Game 82

by ToddtheFox on Apr 18, 2011 9:00 AM EDT in Philadelphia Flyers Game Recaps - 10-11

If you weren't aware, Carts and X were pretty awesome over the last seven games of the regular season.

Given that I haven't been able to publish any of the scoring chance results for the first two playoff games as the script used hasn't been providing the information needed, I decided to look back at the results from the last seven games of the regular season.

The chances have been broken down into even strength, powerplay and penalty kill. Due to the small sample size, strong conclusions shouldn't be drawn from these results, but it's at least interesting to see individual performances at the end of the season when the team was not performing as well as expected.

A massive thanks to Neil Greenberg who tracks the Washington Capitals scoring chances for Russian Machine Never Breaks for helping with data compilation. His results for the Capitals regular season can be found here. Also, thanks to Vic Ferrari for writing the scripts.

Charts after the jump (there seems to be some interesting formatting with the table border unfortunately).

Even strength chance summary

	#	EV CF	EV CA	Sum of EVTOI	CF/60	CA/60	Chances +/- /60	Chance %
D. Syvret	26	17	7	51.3	19.9	8.2	11.7	70.8%
N. Zherdev	93	27	15	63.2	25.6	14.2	11.4	64.3%
C. Giroux	28	42	28	103.0	24.5	16.3	8.2	60.0%
J. Carter	17	43	29	109.2	23.6	15.9	7.7	59.7%
M. Carle	25	57	42	140.2	24.4	18.0	6.4	57.6%
A. Meszaros	41	41	38	128.6	19.1	17.7	1.4	51.9%
D. Briere	48	29	27	71.8	24.3	22.6	1.7	51.8%
S. Bobrovsky	35	65	62	240.1	16.2	15.5	0.7	51.2%
Team		574	552	1971.5	17.5	16.8	0.7	51.0%
S. Hartnell	19	29	28	97.7	17.8	17.2	0.6	50.9%
D. Carcillo	13	10	10	47.9	12.5	12.5	0.0	50.0%
V. Leino	22	26	26	85.0	18.4	18.4	0.0	50.0%
B. Boucher	33	30	31	88.8	20.3	20.9	-0.7	49.2%
M. Richards	18	22	23	87.5	15.1	15.8	-0.7	48.9%
J. van Riemsdyk	21	22	24	89.5	14.7	16.1	-1.3	47.8%
N. Boynton	24	7	8	25.8	16.3	18.6	-2.3	46.7%
K. Timonen	44	29	34	106.6	16.3	19.1	-2.8	46.0%
K. Versteeg	10	18	23	82.6	13.1	16.7	-3.6	43.9%
S. O'Donnell	6	13	17	85.3	9.1	12.0	-2.8	43.3%
B. Coburn	5	29	39	124.1	14.0	18.9	-4.8	42.6%
D. Powe	36	8	13	55.3	8.7	14.1	-5.4	38.1%
B. Betts	11	3	7	25.9	7.0	16.2	-9.3	30.0%
A. Nodl	15	7	18	52.9	7.9	20.4	-12.5	28.0%
B. Holmstrom	34	0	3	9.3	0.0	19.4	-19.4	0.0%

Syvret (70.8% of scoring chances while on the ice), Zherdev (64.3%), Giroux (60.0%), Carter (59.7%) and Carle (57.6%) were very good in the final games of the season.
Betts (30%), Nodl (28%) and Powe (38.1%) were all pretty bad, but given their role I don't think we should be too hard on them.
Coburn, O'Donnell, Versteeg, Richards, JVR, Boynton and Timonen were all below 50%, but hopefully would be better of the full course of the season.

Powerplay chance summary

	#	Sum PP CF	Sum PPTOI	PP CHANCES/2MIN
D. Briere	48	13	15.3	1.7
J. Carter	17	17	24.1	1.4
A. Meszaros	41	14	20.9	1.3
N. Zherdev	93	8	12.4	1.3
C. Giroux	28	15	26.4	1.1
K. Timonen	44	11	19.6	1.1
Team		155	276.2	1.1
M. Carle	25	12	21.4	1.1
S. Hartnell	19	10	18.5	1.1
B. Coburn	5	2	3.9	1.0
K. Versteeg	10	4	8.4	1.0
M. Richards	18	10	22.2	0.9
J. van Riemsdyk	21	9	20.7	0.9
V. Leino	22	4	13.9	0.6
S. O'Donnell	6	0	1.2	0.0
B. Betts	11	0	0.0	0.0
D. Carcillo	13	0	0.2	0.0
A. Nodl	15	0	0.3	0.0
N. Boynton	24	0	0.1	0.0
D. Syvret	26	0	0.1	0.0
B. Holmstrom	34	0	0.1	0.0
D. Powe	36	0	0.5	0.0

We all know the powerplay is bad, but it still seems to be generating chances. Compared to the Capitals PP chance results for the entire season, the Flyers chances/2mins for the last seven games appear to be lower.
There also seems to be a difference in chances generated between the two units that Laviolette usually runs with.

Summary of penalty kill chances

	#	Sum of SH CA	Sum of SHTOI	SH chances/2min
S. O'Donnell	6	6	13.0	0.9
M. Carle	25	5	10.8	0.9
A. Nodl	15	1	2.1	1.0
C. Giroux	28	8	16.7	1.0
B. Betts	11	7	14.1	1.0
M. Richards	18	9	16.1	1.1
Team		130	226.7	1.1
K. Timonen	44	14	24.2	1.2
A. Meszaros	41	9	14.9	1.2
D. Powe	36	15	23.6	1.3
B. Coburn	5	17	26.7	1.3
N. Boynton	24	1	1.2	1.6
K. Versteeg	10	12	13.0	1.8
D. Carcillo	13	0	0.6	*
J. Carter	17	0	0.5	*
S. Hartnell	19	0	1.7	*
J. van Riemsdyk	21	0	0.8	*
V. Leino	22	0	0.1	*
D. Syvret	26	0	0.0	*
B. Holmstrom	34	0	0.7	*
D. Briere	48	0	0.7	*
N. Zherdev	93	0	0.7	*

Less Versteeg, more Nodl on the penalty kill!

I'll say it once more for emphasis, but the small sample of seven games shouldn't be used to draw any hard conclusions. If you see anything else interesting in the results, or would like me to look at something else with the data, let me know in the comments.

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Comments

Can’t wait to have this for a full season next year Todd.

Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!

by DLJr on Apr 18, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed again 2 in 1 day holy !@#$%

by chrislanci on Apr 18, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Fantastic work.

And it is always nice to see the numbers match up with my eyes. Even when my eyes saw Nodl was struggling.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 18, 2011 9:28 AM EDT reply actions

holy shit, giroux’s face is creepy in that photo

by BobbyDucati on Apr 18, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

That’s all I wanted to post. I’m glad someone else caught that.

by OriginJM on Apr 18, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Glad we’ll have another Eastern conference team tracked.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

Blogger for Russian Machine Never Breaks (RMNB) and WaPo's Capitals Insider
I also log the Caps scoring chances for 2010-11. The summary spreadsheet is posted on Google Docs.
Follow me on Twitter @ngreenberg

by NGreenberg on Apr 18, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

Which reminds me I can send you the PHI vs WSH, PHI vs NYR and I think vs FLA games too if you want. You may have to re-load them into Vic’s script for the indiv chances but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

by NGreenberg on Apr 18, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

That would be great. The more I can add to this the better.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Apr 18, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Guys with 24 per 60?! No wonder we stink.

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Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
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by George E. Ays on Apr 18, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

One of whom can’t even crack the lineup!

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 18, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s entirely possible that I’m too generous at giving out scoring chances.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Apr 18, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Ovechkin’s line generates ~20 EV chances per 60. Semin’s ~17-18. You have a sample size issue so I wouldn’t be too worried about it.

It may be helpful to chart one of the NYR-WSH games so you can compare what you have to George and I – not because we’re awesome, but because we are usually within a few chances of each other independently.

"Shots aren't the important thing. Scoring chances are way more important than shots." - Bruce Boudreau

by NGreenberg on Apr 19, 2011 7:04 AM EDT up reply actions