Thursday Morning Fly By: Let's Not Spot Them a 3-0 Lead Again
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 6:00 AM EDT
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Today's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers news and notes...
- The Flyers will face the Bruins in the second round: [SB Nation Philly] [Philly Sports Daily] [CSNPhilly] [Inquirer] [NHL.com]
- Full schedule for the second round: [BSH] [SBN Philly] [delcotimes.com] [In the Room] [Flyers Faithful] [The700level.com] [Philly Sports Daily] [Inquirer] [Flyer Files]
- Schedule for the Capitals-Lightning series: [Washington Times]
- Reasons things look good for the Flyers: [Daily News]
- Filed under "Obviously": The Bruins want to make up for last year: [NHL.com]
- The team was given the day off, but still was looking forward to seeing who they would play: [CSNPhilly] [Frequent Flyers]
- Now, they can focus on the Bruins: [Inquirer]
- James van Riemsdyk = boss: [Philly Sports Daily]
- Peter Laviolette answered some questions: [Flyer Files] [NHL Hot Stove]
- Chris Pronger proved valuable in Game 7. Did we link this yesterday? Well, it's still a story: [SBNation.com] [NHL.com] [delcotimes.com] [Inquirer]
- Danny Briere has some unkind words for the Sabres in his recent diary entry: [Flyer Files]
- Disputing a report from Tuesday night that Michael Leighton left the Flyers: [Philly Sports Daily]
- Unsung Series MVP? Dan Carcillo. Probably not, but... maybe: [Flyers Goal Scored By...]
- Greenville is out of the playoffs, but Andrew Rowe, Shane Harper, and Marc-Andre Bourdon were impressive in the ECHL: [PostStar.com]
- FGSB eulogizes the Sabres: [Puck Daddy]
- Former Flyer R.J. Umberger was voted Team MVP by the fans and Most Courageous by his teammates: [The Cannon]
- The three finalists for the Selke are Ryan Kesler, Pavel Datsyuk, and Jonathan Toews: [NHL.com] [Puck Daddy]
- And looking at just how good Pavel Datsyuk has been: [Hockey Prospectus]
- Was no suspension for Milan Lucic the right call? [SBNation.com]
- Were you critical of the NHL's deal with NBC? Well, shame on you: [SBNation.com]
- Because they always generate arguments: Hypothetical NHL realignment should a team move: [Washington Times]
- And this comes about as a result of the Winnipeg Mayor hinting that the Thrashers could be moving before Phoenix: [TSN.ca]
- Uh, Jack Edwards goes on a rant. Again. He. Is. Crazy: [Puck Daddy]
- A league-wide look at Fenwick with the score tied during this year's playoffs: [Behind the Net]
- Lastly, a Round 1 update on Hartnell and Versteeg "Hartnell'ing" [Down Goes Spezza]
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Scoring chances for Game 7
Flyers 23-16 Sabres.
Even strength 19-12
By period: 10-2, 8-7, 5-7.
Mourning Gagne forever.
So this is what it has come down to? Sad state of affairs Todd, sad state.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
The FGSB eulogy for the Sabres isn’t that good.
Simon Gagne may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home, but at the end of the day, he will always be a Philadelphia Flyer.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Apr 28, 2011 7:08 AM EDT reply actions
I glazed over into the second paragraph.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
Meh writing at best. Apparently there was a joke in there about serious health concerns, with the equivalent I’d imagine being if the Sabres made fun of Pelle Lindbergh’s death and accident
Geoff should’ve written the Eulogy, citing a bunch of numbers, then composed of clean jokes that we the commenters couldve provided, some of which would be discussing Buffalo’s women, the lack of championship, so on and so forth
I hate when comedy isn’t done right
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate when people make fun of the city, making fun of the fanbase or the weather is one thing, but when you just write something about how some city is a shit hole you’re just being an asshole. Also, I don’t like when you make fun of stereotypes of people in them. It’s one thing to say Pitt’s fans abandon the team or something, it’s quite another to say Pitt fans are dirty or the women there are ugly. I much prefer when they make fun of the team and what has happened to the franchise than the city and its people.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah I was about to say jay, don’t piss on my parade. I said the jokes would’ve been clean
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 11:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
haha, you think I can properly eulogize? Last year, Ben and Travis nailed the Devils one without me. I think I had one line make it in.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You do a fantastic job at making people feel inferior…not that buffalo needs anymore of that
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 11:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
haha, ouch?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh, you tell it like it is. Maybe you should only drop someone a couple of pegs down a ladder instead of just pushing them off a ladder, but it works regardless
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
haha that is a very fair critique.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Like I said, I hope you do the next eulogy
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Not exactly the matchup I wanted, but if we play like we did at the end of the Sabres series, and our goaltending has no implosions, we should be fine. I hear that Ference is having a hearing today for the hit/collision with Halpern. It immediately reminded me of the hit/collision between Steckel and Crosby in the Winter Classic.
Sarauj, Latvija!
I fully expect Boucher to be lock down from here on. This series will hinge on our ability to get to Thomas and not get sucked in to the chickenshit crap with Lucic and Horton. In reality the Bruins are a two line team, a good defense and Thomas.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
Do you mean with DLR and Travis and Geoff and maybe Pardini?
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
Actually that is a joke running between Don and I regarding him actually scheduling Tee times for the group. Seriously.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
Hm. Given that the first one I saw was
I’m not saying thevsky is falling because there is more to life but sleepwalking backwards through the last month of the season usually spells early Tee times.
I always assumed your “tee times!” posts were predicting Flyers doom and gloom.
Not that I wasn’t really concerned by the way we were playing for the last two months of the season, but once the season was over I re-centered myself and put everything behind me and started fresh for the post season. I am less concerned about this series then I was about the Buffalo series. And Boston is better but I believe this team is just better then Boston and now they have some lead out of their asses. And I truly believe Boucher will be unquestioned in this series.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
I thought this was more intentional. I’m not saying Ference tried to hurt Halpern, but Ference knew he was there and leaned into the hit. Steckel and Crosby weren’t even facing one another.
Also, did anyone hear the Boston fans jeering after the hit? Why didn’t ESPN report on that?
Defending Carter until 2021...
Steckel was facing Crosby when he “ran into him”. Whether there was intent to injure is a debatable point, but I’d be surprised if Steckel didn’t realize he was about to collide with Crosby. With regard to Ference, I think he knew it was going to happen and did nothing to avoid it. The booing of Halpern after the hit was despicable, especially assuming that they saw the replay on the big screen in the arena.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUQziwabMKk
Sarauj, Latvija!
I was assuming they didn’t show the replay…giving the fans the benefit of the doubt here as much as possible.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
That might be true, but still, you know if that happened here it would lead ESPN.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Steckel was skating up ice and it looks like he even tried to avoid Crosby as much as possible after Crosby turned into him. Crosby wasn’t even paying attention, which is incredible because I generally assume Crosby knows where everyone is on the ice, at least in his immediate vicinity. Ference leaned into a guy not ever looking at him.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I don’t buy it. I think Steckel was aware and had no problem with the fact that he was going to atleast run into Crosby, but whatever, no punishment was doled out to him. Not really worth arguing since my point was only that the hits were visually very similar; unsuspecting victim, shoulder to the helmet, head on a swivel, etc.
Sarauj, Latvija!
Are the people at home the only ones with HDTV’s at thier disposal? I really hate these debates but if you look at the hit Ference is looking at halpern out of the corner if his eye, looks down the ice (probably for a ref), looks back at Halpern, and moves into his path all without moving his head an inch.
by The Karl Hungus on Apr 28, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as I can tell, Briere said nothing unkind. He was actually complimentary toward them.
by 92-74-99-96 on Apr 28, 2011 8:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yea! The Sabres can toss his salad!
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
Exactly right. The mental picture of Kaleta french kissing Briere’s rim is fairly horrible… haha…
by 92-74-99-96 on Apr 28, 2011 9:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let alone Dustin Bufflen kissing yours!
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
I truly can’t stand that over rated bum…
by 92-74-99-96 on Apr 28, 2011 10:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, I’m kind of curious what exactly Geoff is referring too.
Geoff, care to elaborate?
"Chris Pronger sneaked in the back door...banged it home."
Flyers Television Play-by-Play Man: Jim Jackson
Yeah, the headline.
I said “unkind”, not “mean” or “vitriolic” or anything. Just unkind.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
As much as I do like Tampa I was rooting for the Pens last night…and then Boston scored to win in OT and then it was carnage time, I wanted to see Pittsburgh lose at home in front of their fans…blow a 3-1 series lead and lose 2 of the last 3 at home…epic.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Lesson #1 Never root for Pittsburgh.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
True that…I didn’t want to do it, but to me it was all about the lesser of three evils…I did what I thought was best at the time, when the parameters changed, it was time for Pittsburgh to go down in a blaze of agony.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I was pulling for them. Have good friends from pittsburgh. I’ll typically pull for them until a) we play them or b) one of their fans says something completely illogical regarding the sport of hockey, which is usually a good amount of the time
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I was torn on the rooting. First, I was afraid of Pitt if Crosby came back, so I didn’t mind them losing, but Tampa has our number. Until Boston won I was pulling for Pitt.
Second, I couldn’t really focus on the Pitt game for any extended period of time because NHL network had the Pitt feed. Those guys are AWFUL. “Pittsburgh is really outhitting Tampa!” Which is another way of saying TB had the puck.
In the end it doesn’t matter, sooner or later we’re going to have to beat the second best team if we want to be the best.
Defending Carter until 2021...
You should check out Fenwick score tied for that series…it’s another way of saying the Pens had the puck for a majority of the series when cores effects were taken out.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Duh, they were gaming the system.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I was referring to a specific moment of last night’s game, not the whole series. I didn’t watch the whole game so I’ll trust you.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Well I disproved the whole teams they were playing were gaming the system given the seeding of the match ups they had to finish the season post Winter Classic. Absolutely nothing in there to suggest they were consistently playing teams where both were gaming the system (1/3 of the teams were bubble teams, and that was being generous). And of the non bubble teams they played, half were seeded 5 or higher, half 11 or lower, and then they played NJ 4 times, who were pretty damn good in the 2nd half.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Define Bubble Team. If you’re in 12th place and not eliminated from the playoffs, as you are not about to be contending with the pens for a playoff spot, it’s in your best interests to get 1 point and take your chances in OT shootout as often as possible.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I did…did you read what I wrote yesterday. I defined it as 6 through 10. Minnesota was 12th in the West and ended up 11 points out, Atlanta was 12th in the East and finished 13 points out. That’s too far out IMO. And if it isn’t, then I would argue via your logic that every team games the system from game 1 on because it’s in every team’s best interest to gain 1 point and take your chances in OT and the SO…which renders your point irrelevant.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
by DLJr on Apr 28, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Show me three point games are divided equally across all months of the regular season and I’ll agree.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Ok so you just ignored my first point, moved on to the flaw in your logic, and you once again want me to do the leg work despite being the only one bringing analysis to the table. You realize I’m at work right?
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Roughly 30 per three weeks. But if you click on random pages, you’ll see: 30 games in 18 days in April, 30 games in 22 days in January, 30 games in 16 days in December…
His theory doesn’t hold up on a cursory search.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
They knew they couldn’t win the cup, so they just tried to load up on what hockey nerds considered the key statistic.
Heart and grit?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Corsi doesn’t mean much when you don’t have players that can score
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
If you are going to be snarky, at least get your insult right. We are talking about Fenwick.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Both are nice ways to make yourself feel better after a loss. These stats are pretty good at showing me what a team is good at, or where it’s weaknesses may be, but if you want to say you’re better consistently having more shots launched at the opposing net than your opponent doesn’t mean much.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Both are the best way to predict the future. Goals are not.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
From a statistical point of view. We do this in Logistics all the time. From a real life point of view, if you want to say you’re a best team you have to win the championship.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Hey goal posts, we were over here.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
by DLJr on Apr 28, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I got nothing but love for ya, but can this argument stop one day please? Pretty please with cherries on topp?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Only when every time someone on this site has an opinion other people can evaluate it without demanding statistics.
But with cherries involved…hmmm…maybe.
Defending Carter until 2021...
If I have statistics that can make an opinion fact or fiction, why wouldn’t I look at it…it grows the knowledge base of the community. hence the point of the back and forth.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
They support one side, yes. But stats do not make anything fact or fiction. Statistics exist for their predictive value. They are a way to minimize error.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Statistics exist for their predictive value.
False. maybe in your line of work. But a lot of the advanced stats in hockey are used to go back and show how players were used, the competition they faced, etc. Some are used to predict forward, some to analyze the past. You are limiting statistics to one type of analysis. The fact that you are doing that confirms that you are paying just enough attention to be a pain in the ass but to not actually add anything productive.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
And by confirms, I mean that’s my opinion at this point.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
A professor of mine at PSU has been enlisting the help of me and a few other graduates in launching new statistics to market to professional sports franchises. It started out as an independent study for fantasy sports, namely football and baseball, so we haven’t done nearly as much in hockey. If this works out I’m guessing your heads would explode.
The first thing I do when I see a stat is look for the flaws. The merits are easy to trumpet.
Do you guys read the Journal of Qualitative Sports? There’s a lot in there that’s been useful for stat analysis. Like I said, I haven’t looked at hockey much in it.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I doubt my head would explode. My grad degree is based heavily on advanced statistics and forecasting models. All of the techniques are relatively meaningless for these types of analysis. I always look at the flaws when lookis at a model, but I also understand what the flaws are and how relevant they are when I’m applying a stat. Sometimes the flaw is completely irrelevant to the application of a stat that it doesn’t matter…that’s the point you are missing.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I get that. It’s all a definition of “relevance” though. Considering my stat background is meant for determining decisions involving money, and ideally large amounts of money, small flaws are likley much more “relevant” than in something like shot %.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I understand…if you want to try your hand in the commodities market, let me know, I have an excellent, but specific, forecasting model that I have built over the years…though it could probably use updating.
The thing is I know how to separate out the applications as I’ve worked in several different industries with the research I have done. When I’m here, I keep it simple/stupid for a lack of a better term because that’s where we are with these stats still in comparison to others.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I wish there was a way to measure the effect of a coach on a playoff series, but I have no idea what i’d do…a coach’s career playoff record vs corsi/fenwick predictions? That just sounds like something I would do if I owned and NHL team or if I were a GM, but good god that would be a pain in the ass and only useful for veteran coaches…most of whom we already know about.
But god it would be funny to read Boudrea’s numbers.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Don’t you think Corsi/Fenwick’s significance can vary based on the team? The Penguins are solid defensively and have solid defensive forwards, most of which don’t have a ton of finish. So, simply controlling the play doesn’t result in as many goals for them as it would for a more highly skilled offensive team
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Since shooting talent is shown not to be persistent over the course of a season, no I don’t over the course of a season. In small samples, being “clutch”, getting “lucky”, having guys that are “finishers” or whatever you want to say obviously helps because there is a ton of noise in small samples.
This isn’t black and white, I am not trying to make it that way.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
The Penguins season shooting percentage was 8.1%, the same as the Capitals.
So, this is perception bias. But also, what Don said.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
The Caps are a defensive team now. Boring as hell to watch, ton of shots coming from the outside. They play like the Penguins, except they can eventually outlast teams and score
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
So… more perception bias.
The Caps and Pens have a higher shooting percentage than such defensive stalwarts as the Sharks, Thrashers, and Canadiens.
They are one-tenth of one percentage point behind such defensive stalwarts as the Sabres, Rangers, and Red Wings.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
/nod
mantis, you don’t want to go down this road. Another way of looking at it is that 8.1% is pretty darn close to the league average 8.3%, so their Fenwick/Corsi was pretty darn close to league-average-level indicator of goal scoring.
And we can look up the shooting distance…I bet your claim that the Caps’ shots all come from the outside won’t stand up either.
I’d be willing to bet they have siginificantly less shots from a close distance than last year
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Average shot distance for the Capitals this year: 36.7 feet.
Average shot distance for the pass-too-much-to-get-the-perfect-shot, lead-the-league-in-shooting-percentage Flyers this year: 36.9 feet.
Average shot distance for the Capitals last year: 35.9 feet.
Significance of that 0.8 foot difference from this year: minimal.
by Eric T. on Apr 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That tells me nothing about how many shots were taken in close, which is what he was arguing,.
Defending Carter until 2021...
So if I take way more 15 foot shots and way less 5 foot shots than last year, i could have the same average.
Defending Carter until 2021...
That’s true. I don’t have my scripts to analyze the play by play here, so we’ll have to rely on the average numbers behindthenet provides for now.
Do you think that your scenario is likely to be what happened? Or are you just pointing out that there’s a very slim outside chance of it?
Also, the goalposts have moved dramatically. The original claim was that Corsi/Fenwick wasn’t a good predictor of goal scoring for the Penguins because they don’t have good finishers. But as has already been shown, their shooting percentage is right near the league average, so this claim is false.
Now somehow that argument has been turned to a discussion of whether Washington got a lot fewer close shots this year but somehow did it in a selective way so that their average shot distance didn’t change much.
I’m not even in this argument, I was just pointing out the flaw in stating an average distance when the question regarded the number of shots from a certain distance from year to year.
Defending Carter until 2021...
You realize average distance accounts for close v. outside shots, right?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, You do realize that If I take a 181 foot shot and 19 one foot shots my average is the same as if I took 20 10 foot shots, right?
He said “They took less shots in close.”
Had he said “Their average shot was from further away” then that stat would be accurate.
Defending Carter until 2021...
And when you can prove to me that this is a problem over the course of 2,000 shots, I’ll believe you may be onto something.
Until then, you are picking a fight using obscure, strawman arguments that are ridiculous.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No, if I want to know if my team took more or less shots from “in close” i first need to define “in close” and then I need to count that number and compare it to last year.
The average tells me nothing about this.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Then get right on it, champ. Find those 2 shots out of 2000 that show they took more shots “in close”.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not my argument. I’m just pointing out that giving me the average is a useless stat for arguing the original comment.
Defending Carter until 2021...
It’s only useless if you have any reason to believe the shape of the distribution has changed.
Personally, I’d assume the shape stays roughly constant from year to year until proven otherwise, but you don’t have to make that same assumption. And since neither of us is going to do the legwork to prove it right now, we’ll just disagree.
What’s amusing is I actually agree with you. I haven’t said a thing about agreeing or disagreeing, I’m just saying that using an average doesn’t tell me about a specific number of shots from a certain distance.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah, and I’ve said a few times now that I think that’s too strong a statement.
The average doesn’t address that if there’s a reasonable chance that the shape of the distribution has changed markedly. I think that chance is slim. Given that they took about the same number of shots from about the same distance, it seems very unlikely that the distribution changed dramatically.
In other words, the average doesn’t prove that it didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean it tells you nothing about it. The numbers here, while not proving there were fewer shots from close, dramatically reduce the likelihood that that was the case.
If I had to place a gentleman’s bet, based off the information I’ve been given, I would say mantis is wrong. Going off what I’ve seen from the Caps, I would say Mantis is wrong. If I had to bet my house on it, I’d decline the bet based off the information I have.
Defending Carter until 2021...
by Pardini36 on Apr 28, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I can’t say I disagree with that. I hate statistics
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
And that was the point…not sure why you fought it so much.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Because losing arguments four arguments at the same time is deflating
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll admit defeat on the first point. But there’s a reason the Caps aren’t scoring more this year, and it isn’t regression to the mean
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow. It really, really is.
http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/1/29/1963458/this-is-getting-too-complicated
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Regressing to the mean may be accurate, or it could be that they aren’t doing some things as well as they used to be. Not everyone is average. Some people and teams do some things better than others. Is Tiger regressing to the mean (90% of golfers never break 100, average US handicap is 17) or is he better than most people, but not as good as he used to be?
Not saying you’re absolutely wrong, I’m just saying you’re not absolutely right either.
Defending Carter until 2021...
The article Geoff linked to had the following table of Washington’s yearly shooting percentages:
2007-2008: 8.1%
2008-2009: 8.2%
2009-2010: 11.0%
2010-2011: 8.2% (at the time, ended at 8.1%)
Had they been 11.0% three years in a row, a talent argument might be reasonable. But it’s hard to look at that table and call them the Tiger Woods of shooting talent.
Pst… he obviously didn’t read the link. He just wants to argue an incorrect point.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not discussing the article at all, I’m pointing out the flaw in using averages.
Defending Carter until 2021...
And while it may be a flaw, as Eric admits, you are ignoring that the large sample size will minimize the flaw in averages, because you are more stubborn than a mule.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
No, I agree with that, but this isn’t a question that involves sample size. For average, absolutely. Couldn’t agree more. For a specific region of the ice an average is as useless as me saying “they took more shots from the right side” and you said “the average distance is 36.9 feet.”
Defending Carter until 2021...
But the average distance is pertinent over a large sample size when you are comparing the two seasons in question. The average distance, if similar, should give you a good idea that there wasn’t much deviation between where the shots were coming from. It’s not like we are talking about 10 shots from each season, we are talking about the average of about 2600 shots from each season. Hence that should give you a good approximation that there is not significant evidence of a difference of # of shots from a particular shot distance.
It’s about an approximation to give a person an idea that the quickly available evidence doesn’t suggest any significant difference. And that 2600 shots are enough to assume that they were spread about fairly evenly.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Does who?…all this data is available from NHL game data. It’s a matter of writing scripts to summarize an analyze it.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Ah. I wasn’t sure if that was coming from a specific site. Obviously it’s from your own work. Nevermind.
Defending Carter until 2021...
We use behindthenet.ca for a lot of stuff that is already summarized. Some of us have collected our own data as well for specific team analysis.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I didn’t know if you wanted to be singled out and bothered with people requesting it.
Didn’t mean to try to take credit away from you. And I was also including other writers from other sites…not me…I just steal it from hard workers like you.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Like I said, I wasn’t saying you were right or wrong, I was just saying that you can’t just say any improvement or worsening is automatically regressing to the mean. Is Alexander Ovechkin “regressing to the mean” because he had a down year in the goals department? He’s actually an average player who was getting lucky??
Defending Carter until 2021...
Well first you have to define what the mean was. And when you realize the Caps were 3.4 SD above the mean last year, but this year they were at their mean (and Ovechkin was below his mean this year), you’ll realize that this is just a very lazy objection.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
It sounds like the confusion is about what “regression to the mean” means.
It’s not a claim that everyone will regress to league average over time. It’s a claim that they will regress to their own true talent level.
Ovechkin’s true talent is well above league average, and he was unlucky with the shot quality randomness portion of save percentage this year despite being right at his average for the talent-driven shot distance portion. The prediction is that he will regress to his mean and score 50+ goals again next year if healthy.
Agreed. But does this mean you’re assuming every team (as a whole) has overall average offensive talent? Or just that the difference between 90% of players is so slight it doesn’t matter?
Defending Carter until 2021...
Ovechkin’s 32 goals this year is certainly not a regression to his mean, and I have to believe part of that is the change in the way the Caps play. Their team shooting percentage may have regressed, but that’s not the the sole reason behind their lack of scoring, which, even when their % was 8.2 at ES in 08-09, was at 3.27 per game.
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovechkin’s true talent is well above league average, and he was unlucky with the shot quality randomness portion of save percentage this year despite being right at his average for the talent-driven shot distance portion. The prediction is that he will regress to his mean and score 50+ goals again next year if healthy.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
To amplify further, here is Ovechkin’s average shot distance, and shooting percentage by year:
2007-2008: 34.2 feet, 8.7%
2008-2009: 33.8 feet, 7.1%
2009-2010: 35.3 feet, 10.3%
2010-2011: 35.1 feet, 6.0%
Did he really shoot from farther away this year because of a new system? Or did he just get less lucky on whether those shots went in?
I don’t understand what this is supposed to prove to me
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Claiming that they took less shots – which, if they shoot the same %, but score less goals, is what would likely have happened – is a lot different than claiming that they are taking them from further out, along the perimeter.
But why do you have to believe that Ovechkin’s decrease in scoring is a system change? I just mean, why?
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
You don’t think the Caps have played differently this year?
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
So your answer to my question is a question…
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Geoff, I just want to say, your argument continually ignores his original point, which is what I keep trying to tell you. Mantis said the caps have taken less shots from in close. He didn’t say their average shot was from further out, nor did he say they took less shots.
I’m done with this as I don’t even agree with the original point. I just don’t see how an average can be proof. Saying sample size doesn’t really hold water because all it does is make the average more accurate, not the absolute nature of the claim.
Based off of the average and the sample size I would “guess” that there is not a statistically significant difference in the total number of shots they took in close, but I wouldn’t say it’s a fact.
Defending Carter until 2021...
You mean an argument I never entered?
Glad you spent 3 paragraphs and entered into arguments with Eric and Don trying to prove a point that I never made, while directed it at me.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Claiming that they took less shots – which, if they shoot the same %, but score less goals, is what would likely have happened – is a lot different than claiming that they are taking them from further out, along the perimeter.
I was responding to that quote, sorry if I misinterpreted.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Do you want a statistical analysis of different forecheck systems? Cause I don’t have one
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to know why your explanation for Ovechkin’s decreased scoring is a shift in team strategy.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Because they’re strategy in general involves less offensive zone pressure, which leads to less scoring chances. 367 is the fewest number of shots Ovechkin’s taken in a season (368 more last year in 7 less games played).
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
(368 more last year in 7 less games played).
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
- 367 shots from an average of 35.1 feet, 8.7% went in
- 368 shots from an average of 35.3 feet, 13.6% went in
The number of shots was the same and the average distance was the same.
So if you think it’s a system difference, then that means either a very strange skew in the location distribution that didn’t change the average, or it means a real and persistent shot quality impact, which nobody has ever been able to find evidence of despite lots and lots of trying.
That was more of a “for what it’s worth” response than something I felt was definitive. I read your average distance/% stats when you posted them earlier.
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn’t? You thought they were going to continue to shoot 3.4 standard deviations better than the mean this year and forever after?
Uh, they changed their system.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to jump in here.
07-08 and 08-09, the Caps had Sergei Fedorov at 2C (plus, I think, a much better work ethic and better attention to detail). They scored a lot because they shot a lot and had a strong power play. They were an elite team by Corsi.
09-10, the Caps were not an elite team at ES. They still shot a lot, but gave up more and more shots. They just shot an abnormally high percentage, led a lot (which increases your sh% slightly), and had a strong power play again.
This season, the Caps had a strong power play by shots, but the goals weren’t going in. They have been more recently. On the season the’re an average team at ES, but with better goaltending than in years past, and since the trade deadline they’ve been a solid above-average possession team.
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by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
ES% or shooting percentage in general?
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Even-strength.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to argue something about power plays, but the Pens’ has been pretty bad the past two years as well. So…I’m not going to
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Pens’ special teams don’t implode, they win the series.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And by “implode”, you mean “get really unlucky”.
5-on-4 SF/60 regular season: 47.5; Sh% 11.0
5-on-4 SF/60 playoffs: 51.6; Sh% 2.0
4-on-5 SA/60 regular season: 44.3; Sv% .899
4-on-5 SA/60 playoffs: 46.2; Sv% .742
For the SV%, yes, but if shot percentage includes blocked shots it would explain the dropoff. I’m guessing it’s shots on net. Wow, that’s failure.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah, the Buffalo Sh% is the same as the Flyers Sv%, so if one is just shots on net, the other has to be, and I can’t imagine Sv% including shots that don’t hit the net…
Agreed on SV%, but shot % could include shots that miss or get blocked…though I doubt it.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Not blocked shots, but BtN does (I think) include missed shots in individual shooting percentage.
But if the team shooting percentage matched the opposition save percentage, then they must not have included missed shots there.
Haha wow, if missed shots are counted into shot % that would have a pretty large effect, right? If I remember correctly, and I may not, the average NHL top 6 forward misses over 25% of the time, right? Is there a place I can find this stat? I’ll check BtN
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah, including misses is what some people call “true shooting percentage” or whatever, and it’s what BtN gives on their player numbers, I think.
Look at this list of individual player shooting this year. Briere is listed at 12.0% based on 28 G, 164 SH, 41 MS. The only way I can come up with 12.0% is 28 / (28 + 164 + 41), so I think “SH” means saved shots (rather than total shots), and shooting percentage here is the less-common “true” shooting percentage that includes misses.
I wish BtN were more clear about this kind of stuff.
Some times it lags for whatever reason.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
no big deal, I was really just trying to see what each flyer’s missed net % is compared to the league average. Not really something I’m too worried about.
Defending Carter until 2021...
It lists 82 games played for some Flyers, so I don’t think it’s behind.
I can explain things like Carter being listed with only 26 goals on BtN but 28 ES goals elsewhere because this is just 5-on-5, and maybe he had two goals at 4-on-4.
I can’t, however, explain why Hartnell is listed at BtN as 21 5-on-5 goals when NHL.com has him with 24 total goals, 4 on the power play. Anyone have a guess?
Eh, both. Color me unimpressed with the Pens’ PKing, and their puck movement on the PP was pretty terrible. It’s a wonder they can score at all like that. I’m sure that over time the coaches would iron those issues out a bit, though. Fluke of small sample.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
There both +/- for different types of shots. Regardless, what I said is true.
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually it’s not true, as shooting talent has been shown not to be persistent through season data.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Corsi doesn’t mean much when you don’t have players that can score
That is certainly a true statement
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I had to! If you control play but never score, Corsi doesn’t mean much. How is that wrong in a literal sense?
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If you control play but never score, Corsi doesn’t mean much. How is that wrong in a literal sense?
Because if you own Corsi, you will score. It’s been proven. Goal scoring is inherently clouded by luck and not a good predictor of future performance. If you want to know whether you will score in the future, you use Corsi, not past goal scoring. That’s how it is wrong in a literal sense.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If my high school team out-corsi’d another high school team with an NHL elite goalie we aren’t likely to score as much as their team if we have a squirt goalie.
Defending Carter until 2021...
It’s surely true that exceptions could exist. A team could decide to just start putting the puck on net from the red line and end up with a huge Corsi and no goals.
But within the historical framework of all NHL-level talent and all NHL strategic systems, Corsi has consistently proven to be a better predictor of goal scoring than past goal scoring has.
Hey goalposts! I know you were here a minute ago…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
For example, killing all the fleas on a cat is very easy without the usually unstated condition that the cat remain alive and in good health.
For example, killing all the fleas on a cat is very easy without the usuallyunstatedunnecessary condition that the cat remain alive and in good health.
Fixed.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on, now. Cats are awesome.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
by doubleh on Apr 28, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Some women don’t like cats at all. I just happen to love them and mine are great. They are low maintenance, unlike dogs. Dogs require too much care for my liking. I already have too many ppl to take care of…
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Cats are awesome
… with Asian BBQ sauce.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Dogs have more meat.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
True, but they aren’t as gamey, so you don’t need the sweetness of the Asian Q. A standard dry rub or Kansas BBQ sauce works just fine.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I find cajun spices work well.
On a more serious note, I can totally understand why people don’t like cats if they’ve only ever owned/encountered a farm cat or a non purebreed. Farm cats are very solitary and can be quite mean (many are feral). My pure bred cats are like dogs in kitty fur without the hassle.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Yeah, a lot of non-cat people think cats are too independent and solitary. Then they meet mine, who are both very affectionate and social. I actually think one of mine is pretty dog-like. He follows me all over the place, watches me brush my teeth morning and night, greets me at the door when I get home, sleeps at my feet, and is very happy if you just look at him. But still self-cleaning and doesn’t have to be walked.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Yep, agreed. My cat fetches and growls when you play tug of war with her. She also scratches at the storm door when you are outside and she wants to join you (although, can’t allow this, because thems mean streets for cats outside—we have foxes, hawks and some killer dogs in the neighborhood).
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
My wife’s cat is like that – he plays fetch and whatnot. He actually comes when called, and is pretty good all-around … except he’s still a CAT. Cats generally shit in the house (and you can spend zillions on kitty litter – it still stinks), shed too much (I’m allergic), and simply do not have the sort of blind obedience (some may say ignorance) that dogs have.
I miss my dog. :(
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I get you. But that’s what I like about cats. I am a very independent person who doesn’t need that unconditional love. I feel sorry for those who are allergic and that is awful—totally understand why you would’t like them much in that case.
I have a basement that we hardly use so I’m fine with the litter. ;-)
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
No, it’s not. If you own Corsi and literally never score, it’s meaningless. The statement was correct in a literal sense. I was obviously being difficult, and there was no point in incorrectly refuting it
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, so we are taking this argument to lala land where a team has never scored.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Thank you.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Are two players going to drastically improve the shooting percentage of an entire team? Sounds doubtful. The Pens dominated Tampa at ES like the 07-08 Detroit Red Wings, who posted a clinic from October to June.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
See Geoff’s response.
I should have said you aren’t entirely correct, because of the error we’ve pointed to in your statement when you look at larger sample sizes. Or I could say you aren’t right. So you pick. I agree, in small sample sizes, unexplained variances that help a team score are more helpful than Corsi in winning a game. But over the long term, Corsi will be more indicative of the outcome than unexplained variance.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Also, I misread “cores” as a spelling mistake for “corsi.” Still my fault though, context clues
by mantis toboggan on Apr 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Does this mean we have to put up with what’s her face again.
She is the main reason I didn’t want to see the Bruins play the Flyers in the 2nd round.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Yeah Marissa, better known last year as BestBostonSports. She seems to be better and all, but I still have no interest in seeing her around.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
That girl is literally 14 years old. If we ban her, is it statutory or something?
by philiafan14364 on Apr 28, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I think she might be slightly older than that, but you do bring up an interesting point.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
No, shes not
For some reason, John Sickles inexplicably let her onto his blog.
by philiafan14364 on Apr 28, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Now I feel bad for being mean to her. Thanks.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Wow. I always wondered why her stuff read like it had been written as part of a book report … now I know.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
So, she’s like Katie Baker, except instead of being witty, literate, and propositioned by older men, no one likes her.
Too mean?
Works for Deadspin.com
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I tried to google her, and that got ugly quickly. Too many people with that name.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Both long and worth it: http://deadspin.com/#!5697455/the-confessions-of-a-former-adolescent-puck-tease
I also thought she was older. Here’s a video she posted of her interviewing a lacrosse player.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_HyHxacwmA
Sarauj, Latvija!
Ok, if she’s 14 I don’t have nearly the same disgust for her. I’m pretty sure I was a lot more annoying at 14 than I am now, and I’m still pretty fucking annoying.
Defending Carter until 2021...
rec'd for truth
(sorry, it was too tempting not to say it)
Bob.
by The Dark on Apr 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You could just release the Kraken.
I could make sure she never comes by again.
by BroadStreetBully on Apr 28, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I was 15 when I started posting on SBN…standards should be the same.
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If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, so you’re only like… what, 17 or 18?
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by Travis Hughes on Apr 28, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I see what you did there.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Apr 28, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately…
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
Behindthenet quick link to QoC/QoT/Corsi/PDO/Zonestarts
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a bad thing.
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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Two goalies*, One Cup.
by Travis Hughes on Apr 28, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, I’m 15. (you all seem to think 16, but I haven’t corrected you so sorry to lead you on I guess?) Does it really matter how old? She obviously loves her team, but you could warn her to cool it on other teams’ blogs.
Does it matter to you I’m about the same age as her? Treat it as it is, 14 yearolds are a tough bunch (rather annoying, but it wouldn’t crush her soul if you banned her)
Soon to be Sestitos Stache
by Cillo stache on Apr 28, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
She was banned once. Because of what she said, which was the issue. Not her age since we all just figured that out now.
To answer your question, it doesn’t matter how old she or anyone is, so much as what they say. Though I will say, her being 14, and obviously 13 last year makes the things she said seem somewhat age appropriate.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
^
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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Two goalies*, One Cup.
by Travis Hughes on Apr 28, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
not to make a loaded question, but out of curousity, how does my age reflect here?
Soon to be Sestitos Stache
by Cillo stache on Apr 28, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I don’t want to speak for everyone but I don’t have an issue with your age.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Inflection and tone of voice are so important here.
“I don’t have an issue with your age…”
/grin
Seriously though, it’s really not about age at all, it’s about content. You might like my contributions or you might not, but it wouldn’t matter whether I’m a 92-year-old great-grandmother or a 3-year-old savant.
by Eric T. on Apr 28, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
im confused, i dont think i was on here when this person was on our thread…savard seeking missile girl? anyone want to explain, or link to the thread we are talking about?
"I'm not going to get into a he-said she-said with the refs....I'm the "he"" - Chris Pronger
It was the entire series. For some reason she quieted down as the series went on.
Can’t remember why.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
by boknows71 on Apr 28, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
haha that seems like a doozy to figure out
ok, i must not have been on here for much of that series then. thanks
"I'm not going to get into a he-said she-said with the refs....I'm the "he"" - Chris Pronger
She famously commented “Na na na na hey hey hey, good-bye!” after the Bruins went up 3-0 in game 7. (On SCOC) They even got pissed at her.
I'm kind of a dick.
For those who were not here last night, here where the anti-Savard missile meme started. The girl, bestbostonsports, is apparently 14 and now has a new account, Marisa Ingemi.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Keep Hope Alive
Goodness.
"We didn't do it the easy way. We took the hard way to do it. But we are part of history now."
I feel kind of bad for having started it, now that I look back.
Oh well.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
I don’t care how old she is—if she tosses grenades and acts a fool, she will be treated as such. Life’s a bitch, sweetheart.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
We’ll show her the same hospitality we show our own when they talk nonsense.
No special treatment.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
I agree. I got particularly nasty with her last time we played the Bruins in the season. However, if I had known she was that young, I wouldn’t have used the language I used. Maybe.
I'm kind of a dick.
you’d be supprised the language 14 yearolds have. Its basically their second year of cursing, but they find new "better"words to use. Hardcore, man
Soon to be Sestitos Stache
by Cillo stache on Apr 28, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s not even what I was getting at. I certainly cursed when I was that age, but there’s something about me being 31, and cursing out a 14 year old. I could have gotten my nasty point accross without the vulgarity.
I'm kind of a dick.
Hmmm… haha
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if she’s realized that savard is really nothing special yet lol
Say hi to the bad guy.
Yankees/Flyers/Gunners
I wasn’t home last year for this series so I’m even more excited right now. And there will be all out wars between my friends and I.
I remember being in Philly during game 4 of the Flyers/Bruins game. I went with my wife and two friends to see a Phillies/Braves game. Moyer threw a Complete Game Shutout. It was incredible. We got in the car and as we were driving down 95 towards the turnpike the Flyers scored to win it, I said to my friend that it was too little too late…boy was I wrong.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
haha… I’m applying to jobs and trying to contact Comcast so I’m reading the CEO’s bio, and of course the Flyers and 76ers are mentioned as “owned by Comcast” and then it says “and a large multipurpose arena in Philadelphia.” I guess that’s one way to reference the WFC.
Man, I don’t know how I ever got a job. I didn’t do any of this “researching the company you’re interviewing with” stuff. And most of my resumes just went into a black hole, I never heard anything from anyone. The only interview I got was a company who found my resume on my school’s career center website and they contacted me. But I didn’t do any prep at all. I just went in, answered everything they asked me, and asked a few questions about the work and daily life around the office. And then they hired me. I’m told I didn’t seem nervous at all, like most interviewees. Which is funny because in my mind I was sweating bullets.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Actually, I should clarify. I did try to find a website for the company after they called me for the interview, but we have an incredibly generic name, so I never found anything. So I just shrugged it off and went in blind.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Hey, have you heard it’s cool to donate to charity. Do it now!!!! Even if it’s just a $1, if every member gives $1, that’s a ton of cash for a good cause.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
by DLJr on Apr 28, 2011 9:03 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Updated with new links.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 9:05 AM EDT reply actions
BtN Fenwick
This is exactly what I was saying yesterday as to why the Penguins still scared me. That’s extremely impressive, even though it’s a tiny sample size, with their two studs in the line up.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Exactly. But, the better team won :)
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Seriously though, that’s extremely impressive. That team/coaching staff earned a ton of respect from me.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I’ve always liked Bylsma. He grades players on a 1-5 scale.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
But that’s unfair and mean.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
And lacks emotion like humans would have. No wonder Geoff likes him.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
by hintzy64 on Apr 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Humanist AND an engineer??? Perish the thought.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Am I humanist? I have no idea what that means. And wikipedia isn’t helping:
The term “humanism” is ambiguous.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
You’re ambiguous?
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
Precisely – being ambiguous is so anti-engineer! (And so is stating that being ambiguous is precisely what was meant …)
Emotions other than misplaced sexual desire for inanimate objects usually aren’t ascribed to engineers. Like I say, I should know – I are one.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Richards will be on WMMR in the new few minutes…..
The Flyers are the deepest team in the NHL, the Phillies have four aces. Man is it great to be a Philly sports fan right now.
the bachelors don’t like hockey?
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s my best friends party, and no, he hates hockey. It’s an outdoor event, so I’m not sure I’ll have access to a TV. Just have to take this one on the chin. I’ll DVR it, and hopefully noone will ruin it for me by telling me the score. It’ll make for a fun hungover Sunday morning to watch the game….
I'm kind of a dick.
Ah sounds like a bummer, but booze and boobs will cure the ills of a missed playoff game
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
At least it’s a game 1?
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Could be worse it is not a game 7 or anything. I am in a wedding that day as well and completely blacked out from the game. Could luck dodging the score with all the media technology now a days. You pretty much have to go completely underground where they keep the launch codes to not get a tweet, text, facebook wall post, email or most aggravating a friggin cab with the ESPN scroll on top. It really sucks.
I’ve missed all four wins last series because of various thing going on.
I DVRed them, and watched them like it was live. I had to turn my phone on Airplane mode, and do my best to avoid any talk. The hardest was Monday when I was at the Phillies game.
Eagles next starting QB: "East-West Shrine Game Legend" Mike Kafka
Flyers: Waiting for The Marquis DSOD's first goal
Phillies: starting off well.
That sucks. I have to work a baseball game that starts at 6:30 so I might actually get to see the first period.
Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.
by KreiderDesigns on Apr 28, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Were the Bruins fans booing Halpern when he was trying to get up, or was that just residual noise?
I'm kind of a dick.
They were booing. And chanting “Bull$#!t” as well. I guess they thought he dove….
The Flyers are the deepest team in the NHL, the Phillies have four aces. Man is it great to be a Philly sports fan right now.
Very excited for this upcoming series. Let’s hope the regular series’ games are an indicator of how this matchup will be. Flyers v. Bruins games have been very fun and gut-wrenching to watch.
It’s K-K-K-Ken! C-c-c-coming to k-k-k-kill me! How you gonna c-c-c-catch me, K-K-K-Ken?
I'm kind of a dick.
WANDA!!!
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait, what? The Thrashers are the ones (maybe) moving to Winnipeg? I’m confused.
And the “Whyno Theory” is the only one that makes any sense. Moving Pittsburgh to the SE Division in the “Make the Red Wings Happy Theory” is beyond stupid.
Here’s an idea, let’s just break the whole thing into two divisions, and call them “Leaders” and “Legends.” What do you think?
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Worst idea the Big Ten has ever had.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Truth. It makes the “Atlantic” and “Coastal” divisions of the ACC almost sound like a good idea.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Sad truth.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
For the record, I still don’t like the ACC expansion. I want my double round-robin basketball schedule back. And playing everyone in football every year. 9 teams was perfect.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Nine links to the schedule? That’ll come in handy if I think maybe the first eight were lying to me, I guess.
/apparently still in that mood
by Eric T. on Apr 28, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ass
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m enjoying this back and forth quite a bit.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
TWSS
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
by hintzy64 on Apr 28, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You start by thinking Edwards is doing a parody of Colbert. but no
by flyersfaninchicago on Apr 28, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
OFF-TOPIC
FiOS has arrived in my South Philly neighborhood providing an option besides Cable (Comcast) for the 1st time in Philadelphia History.
Either way I am going to be paying out my ass most likely FiOS is slightly cheaper but for those of you have FiOS is it any better. My main hang-up is changing my email that I had for the past decade. Also I am an old school loyal customer who is afraid of change and I have been with Comcast since I was 18. I am in need of advice to boost my confidence and face my fears to make the switch. Thanks.
For whatever reason cable companies don’t operate on customer loyalty. You’ll get the best deals switching back and forth or threatening to switch. I’ve had FiOS for a while. It’s fine, and was slightly better than Comcast when I had it previously. The people I’ve dealt with on the phone have been slightly better. I would say it’s a marginal difference, but to work the system you have to through loyalty out the window…it’s the exact opposite of insurance companies.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I had Comcast for a long time (in three different counties in Maryland, so I dealt with three different Comcast “franchises”, if you will), and the service itself was mostly fine, but the customer service always irritated me, though it got slightly better in each county. But it was little stuff (like making me drive 45 minutes to Rockville to pick up a refund check when they screwed up my bill, assholes, it’s called the POSTAL SERVICE), and there was no other option at the time, so I just ignored it.
And then, about a year and a half ago, my internet dropped dead. I called, sat on hold forever (as I did on every call during this ordeal), and was told my cable modem must be dead. So I got a new one, same result. They said oh, this one must be dead too. So I returned it and got a third one, same result. They said this one must be dead too, and I said bullshit, get your ass out here. Meanwhile, my TV signal was slowly getting fuzzier too. A week later, a guy finally came out and found that the signal to my house was extremely weak, and that the maintenance tech for my neighborhood had noted several weeks earlier that the underground line to my group of townhouses was bad and needed to be replaced, which is why the signal was weak. The guy that came out added his readings to that report, but there was nothing else he could do. A few days later, my signal had degraded so far that I could no longer watch TV at all, all I got was static. I called and asked for a refund dating to my original support call, since I’m no longer receiving the service I’m paying for and there was a known problem with the underground line. I was told there was no record of any problem with the underground line (bullshit), but they would send someone out to look at it, and they would not give me a refund until service was restored (to make it easier to know how long it was out, which I suppose made sense). I called a few times a week for a month, and nobody would ever give me any status on the underground line. So I got fed up and canceled my service. When I called to cancel, and asked again for the refund, the guy had the stones to tell me the service outage was my fault and that he wouldn’t give me a refund. I shot down his argument and several more blatant lies he tried to sell me as a reason why it was my fault my signal was dead. (The best one was telling me that President Obama had gone on TV and told people they needed to upgrade their equipment because of the digital transition, and that’s why my TV was out. Of course, as I told him, that transition only applied to over-the-air TV and had NOTHING to do with my cable.) He was clearly getting more and more frustrated with me, and starting to develop and attitude, while I kept cool and calm. I asked to speak to his supervisor and he got very offended, refused, and demanded to know why I wanted that. I calmly explained that all I wanted was to cancel my service and be refunded for the time I had paid for that my service did not work, and all I was getting was resistance, excuses, flat-out lies, and an unfriendly, uncooperative attitude, therefore, since he was unwilling to help, I wanted to talk to his supervisor. There was silence on the line for a long time, and he finally said he processed the order to cancel the service and the refund. That night, I received a bill in the mail for the next month, so the next day I called to ask what I should do with it, and found that the guy had lied once again, he hadn’t done anything to my account. So that was it. I was done. Never again will I use Comcast Cable. (And they finally did show up to replace the underground line, nearly three months after my original call.)
I switched to FiOS and I love it. I get faster internet and way more HD channels for the same price, and they bundled the service with my cell phone to give me an additional discount. There were a couple issues with the bill early on (installation fees showing up in three installments when they were supposed to be free), but every call was answered quickly and the answer was “you’re right, sorry for the mix-up, we’ll fix it right away” without any argument or hesitation. The wireless router Verizon supplied died earlier this year, and when I called tech support and told them the steps I had already tried, they didn’t make me go through a scripted process, they made one attempt to connect to the router from their end, said “yup, that sounds dead” and a new one was on my doorstep the next day free of charge. Needless to say, I’ve been very impressed.
Sorry for the long, rambling story. I still hold quite a grudge against Comcast for the way they treated me, and want people to know about it so they hopefully can avoid the same problems. I’m usually a loyal customer too and afraid of change. I debated FiOS hard and long, even while I had zero service at home. But I finally made the leap and it’s been worth it.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
btw jay, the appropriate response is td; dr
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
tl;dr
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
too dull; didn’t read?
harsh, dude.
Bob.
by The Dark on Apr 28, 2011 12:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
nopes. Read it
too tired to comment more on it though
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This is standard operating procedure for Comcast. Every time I call with an issue, if I don;t get what I want or know I need I just tell them to cancel the service.
That gets results.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
OT
Drunk grocery shopping is hazardous to your bank account. Went out to get a steak and some dog treats yesterday, but stopped at the bar first. 4 hours later, I had the largest bag of pistachio’s in history, 3 bags of Runts, Buffalo mozzy sticks, and god knows what else, and I’m $120 poorer. And, I never got the steak.
But I digress…..
I'm kind of a dick.
Yeah – I’ve made that mistake before. Hit happy hour after work, with every intent on just getting ‘the basics’ at the supermarket afterwards … and woke up the next morning to several bags of half-melted frozen Mexican food sitting on my table.
The super-duper bag of pistachios sounds like sound investment though.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
So go get drunk again, then donate to the cause.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
by DLJr on Apr 28, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jack Edwards makes Charlie Sheen look sane.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Courier Post writer Chuck Gormley (Jen’s favorite) is having a live chat in an hour, here: [Flyer Files]
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
Anyone else having problems with the reply button? Mine isn’t working. Is this someone’s way of telling me to shut up?
I'm kind of a dick.
No, we’re not that passive aggressive. Most of us will just tell you to shut up. Geoff will ridicule you and break your argument down by the sentence and post gifs meant to make you feel inferior until you just get tired.
It’s like arguing with Dino from the Flintstones. After about 5 minutes it’s not even words anymore.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Ah, I refreshed several times, and now it works.
Well, he is going to be a lawyer. And he’s usually right. I may be irrational on here towards the stats guys after a loss, but that’s just because I’m angry and need to attack something.
I'm kind of a dick.
Happy to oblige :)
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s a huge difference between coming up with a model that predicts more accurately than the previous model and “being right.” I can come up with Monte Carlo simulations for various portfolios all day long based on what has worked well in the past, but no matter how good a model is it is almost never right.
Defending Carter until 2021...
So what you’re saying is: you aren’t a stats guy.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually what I’m saying is I’m a stats guy who understands their limitations. It’s a model, it’s not reality. If I were gambling I’d certainly use Corsi and other stats during the regular season.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Maybe because in small samples (playoffs) models cannot predict that the better team actually wins? But in the regular season, it does?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m also a stats guy that understand their limitations. You are also a guy that likes to throw out claims with out proof, then put the onus on other people do the leg work to prove/disprove them, then change the goal posts when the claim is proven incorrect. It’s seriously irritating as hell dude.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I don’t care if you do the legwork or not. I don’t believe stats are the end all, they’re predictors for a perfect world. It’s irritating that I see a flaw or disagree or have an opinion that some stats that I don’t trust don’t back up, it’s not stubborn. It’s just as stubborn to claim a team is better after they’ve lost to another team in the playoffs.
Defending Carter until 2021...
…because a 7 game sample (at most) is a better predictor of future behavior than an 82 game sample, apparently. So you’d obviously rather rely on 7 months of financial reports for comparing two funds than the 7 years before that, because all that deep background stuff doesn’t tell you which fund will perform better in the future.
Bob.
by The Dark on Apr 28, 2011 12:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m assuming this is sarcasm. And if my assumption is correct,
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Your strategy is perfect for mutual funds rather than individual stocks. For my own money I always prefer mutual funds because of the sample size, but if I’m choosing between which stock i believe will give a greater rate of return in the near future there is more than just stats involved.
I would look into the assets invested and try to learn about what’s going on within the firm, evaluate this information and make a decision based putting far more weight on the current situation than the previous 7 years. I would look at how the company responded to situations similar to today in the past, consider management and philosophy changes, and then use experience and opinion to make a decision. Stats would be about 80% of my decision.
However, it’s much smarter to invest in mutual funds because you don’t have to do any legwork. And as Don noted, if I’m not getting paid to do it, I rarely do the legwork.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Of course, there’s really no such thing as “insider information” on a hockey team unless you consider the injury report, or gameplanning, or any of a number of things that aren’t really measurable.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah, OK. Not literal inside information in the go-to-jail-for-acting-on-it sense. But certainly just as useful for investing.
Haha well, no, it’s not AS useful, but it’s much more valuable than a common knowledge statistic haha
Defending Carter until 2021...
Meh, that depends on how valuable the statistical predictor is and how major the injury report/game plan/etc is.
In the playoffs a coach gets to game plan for a team NFL style, and gets up to 7 attempts to get four wins. It’s a whole lot different than the regular season. You actually get to break down how to defend each player and then to make adjustments from game to game. I don’t know how you come up with a stat for it, but I think this has a huge affect on most series. Maybe not on Detroit-PHX, but a great coach has an effect on a playoff series.
Defending Carter until 2021...
To an extent, I see a team as somewhat like a mutual fund, with the individual players as stocks. The players’ performance is extremely volatile, but the team’s performance is generally less volatile. And yes, I realize it’s not a perfect analogy, but I’m an economist by training – approximate models are as good as it gets.
Bob.
But the flaw you brought up is irrelevant int he way it’s being applied, but then you counter with, “it’s not my argument”, and the opinions of certain stats you don’t like are fine, but when you offer a counter statement, that can be backed with stats/facts, I’d appreciate that fact rather than just the claim. It does nothing to further anyone’s knowledge by just throwing out claims. Which is why I’ve spent the time doing the legwork…because you are so stubborn about your logic, but don’t want to give the facts, just staements (like gaming the system etc.) that I then have to go chase them down.
I participate in these so my knowledge of the game from a stats perspective is increased. You just keep throwing out claims and say it’s my job to disprove them. Seriously, it’s irritating, and if you haven’t seen yourself do that yesterday, then go back and read your own comments.
The stats community’s first disclaimer is that we recognize the short comings of the metrics we currently have, and that we appreciate a back and forth so we can continue to improve them.
Frick.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I’m actually working on that OT thing. I’ll put it up either way. like I said, if there are the same number of OT games each month throughout the year amongst teams of all places in the standings, I’ll concede that teams don’t try to play for the charity point later in the season.
Actually, the easier way to do this is to look at points per game per month. Would you agree to that?
Defending Carter until 2021...
The thing is, here is my argument. There is no way to say 100% what a team and the opposing team is doing entering each game (meaning mindset, approach, person vendettas, whatever you want to throw out there). My assumption is, there is enough of a sample over that time span to say that, regardless of how each individual minute is played in a game, we are looking at enough games for the strategy’s effect on Corsi to be normalized. You are trying to say that some pattern persists, in particular, “gaming the system” solely in the second half of the season.
I’m already pulling regulation/OT/SO games for the season for all teams as we speak. So we’ll do it that way.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
October: 79% of games end in regulation
November: 80% of games end in regulation
December: 74% of games end in regulation
January: 76% of games end in regulation
February: 78% of games end in regulation
March: 70% of games end in regulation
April: 79% of games end in regulation
There is an error of missing 3 games out of the 1230 played, I’m not going to go find them.
You have 2 months on the lower side, March is the obvious one, but December is low as well. I doubt teams are gaming the system in December. Also, if they chose the end of the season to game the system, why are the amount of games that end in regulation so high for April?
There isn’t much evidence of gaming the system. March and December are the months with the highest % of 3 point games, November and April are the months with the lowest % of 3 point games. So you have an early month, and a late month in each.
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by DLJr on Apr 28, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Like I said, in march teams play for the charity point more than earlier in the season. It obviously starts a bit later than I thought it did, I always figured it to be the final 6 weeks or so of the season, but February doesn’t support that. I won’t ask you to do it, but when I have some time I may look at this from 2006 onward so we have less of a chance of a one time variant.
December is 74%, the (non-weighted) average is 76%, so is December really out of line?
Also, I didn’t include April because there are far fewer “bubble teams” in April as teams have been eliminated.
Do you have an arguments with these observations?
Defending Carter until 2021...
You’re literally saying you’re right based on October and April being the same? More OT games in December than any other month?
Nowhere in there does it prove you right. At all. It shows a one-month outlier that you’re claiming is proof that you’re right.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I predicted late in the season there were more OT games, April has so few games and less teams in the playoff chase, so yes, I would think April is less likely to be accurate. I didn’t weight it by month, i don’t know if there are more games in December than March. I was asking if he agreed.
Defending Carter until 2021...
You are saying: There is one outlier, which just so happened to be where I predicted it would be. Oh, and April, where my theory is proven wrong, uh… it’s a small sample and therefore, I’m not wrong.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
In fairness, he did say he wanted to look at more years to see if it was an anomaly.
I did a quick count, and I believe that last March, 52/226 (23%) of games went to overtime. So 77% ended in regulation last year, which suggests that this year’s 70% might indeed be an anomaly.
More over, how many playoff game go to OT? Just a question. Could it be just as much of regular season becoming more like playoffs as it does gaming the system towards the end of the regular season? Just throwing that out there to stay on the Pardini flow of logic on this.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
First I still need an explanation as to why gaming the system effects Corsi…more so, how it would make Corsi rise…as you suggested for the Pens.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Please answer this
Because this has been your claim, and the reason why I’ve done this, but I still don’t get the argument. Wouldn’t a team, who is gaming the system have a lower Corsi. that’s what makes sense in my head…so I’m looking for your rationale.
You owe me an explanation of this thought process at the very least.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I thought I just posted somewhere, maybe on a different thread on this page, that I don’t have a reason to disagree with your Corsi argument after that. Or maybe the post didn’t go through properly.
My argument was that since the teams they played in the second half of the season had more incentive to go to a three point game, they were less likely to fire a lot of shots at the Pens during a tie game where both sides want the free point than they would have been earlier in the year when they were trying to come back on the Pens with Malkin and Crosby in the lineup. Teams playing from behind fire more shots, you know.
Defending Carter until 2021...
But you said the Pens were gaming the system as well, so wouldn’t the Pens be less likely to shoot pucks at the opposing teams net as well?
So those effects, even if present, would offset in your way of viewing it?
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Yes, but if teams from behind fire more shots, wouldn’t you expect a rise in corsi if a team that was consistently ahead for the first half of the season was consistently behind in the second half?
Maybe I’m misunderstanding the stat.
Defending Carter until 2021...
So now it’s not “Penguins game system, try to stay in tied games to get overtime point”, but “Penguins impressive Corsi isn’t impressive, because they trailed all game, only to get an equalizer near the end, forcing OT and gaming the system.”
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you aren’t, but you are over estimating the effect of that given the increase in Corsi. Their Corsi rose so much, that even if you wanted to discredit them for your hypothesis (you’d need to give me a breakdown game by game of time spent tied), it still wouldn’t level out the rise. You are basically not looking at how much their Corsi rose, that even when normalized for anything in the 1st half, still would have risen. There just isn’t a substantial amount of data missing that would explain that entire rise.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
More break downs for you...
October to December, 437 games, 77% end in regulation
January to April, 495 games, 75% end in regulation
No significant difference.
October to January, 577 games, 77% end in regulation.
February to March, 355 games, 74% end in regulation.
No significant difference that would cause Corsi to suddenly rise.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Fair enough about Corsi, I can’t come up with any evidence to support that.
It definitely shows an increase in OT games late in the season. March is the only month more than 2.8% off the non-weighted average.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yes I know, March was a dip…hence why I combined it to show the break down.
577 out of 749, or 77%, are regulation wins in the first 2/3’s of the season.
355 out of 478, or 74%, are regulation wins in the last 1/3 of the season.
That doesn’t show much evidence of gamin the system towards the end of the season anyway.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
And it’s frustrating that you argued a raised in Corsi is meaningless because teams game the system, but had no logic behind that.
All this BS is a result of that statement. So maybe you can take the Pens Cumulative Corsi steady rise for what it is…impressive.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Could it be because they were in more tie games, while earlier in the year they were in the lead more?
Defending Carter until 2021...
It would reduce sample size early in the year if that were the case. But it would not account for the entire rise. That’s what you fail to recognize, that even if these small effects were helping the numbers, they don’t explain anywhere close to the whole thing. It was such a huge rise, that those other effects can’t possibly explain it all…sometimes a team is just really good…maybe they aren’t to the extreme because of some other effects, but they are far closer to the peak than they are to the valley.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Not sure how it would reduce sample size early in the year if I’m comparing pre Jan 20 to post Jan 20…
I’m assuming I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Yeah sorry. So if the Penguins spent less time tied earlier in the year because they were always ahead, that means they would have less time to accumulate shots while tied. But even if that is the case, which we don’t know (because we don’t know the game by game breakdown of time spent tied) their rise in Corsi was so large in the 2nd half, that normalizing for any of those kind of effect would not level it out.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Sheesh, first SCH, then JR. now BSH? Everyone’s feeling in the anti-stats mood.
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"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
In the playoffs the stats aren’t nearly as valuable as evaluating the regular season. There are things like heart, execution, will to win, and desire to make Geoff’s head explode to take into account.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I’m just not sure how you predict when those factors will become relevant…for all of Toews’ heart, there were 15 other teams that didn’t show much “heart” in the first round.
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If you don't know how to use Timeonice, read this.
Behindthenet quick link to QoC/QoT/Corsi/PDO/Zonestarts
"Numbers don't lie, they just don't agree with you"--George E. Ays
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh…well, I won’t argue against people saying heart was why so-and-so won the game. It’s all that small sample luck unpredictable stuff.
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Behindthenet quick link to QoC/QoT/Corsi/PDO/Zonestarts
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Apr 28, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Is the model better than random guessing over the long term? If so, it’s a decent model, especially for something involving human behavior, which is not an objective, repeatable thing the way chemical reactions are.
Bob.
by The Dark on Apr 28, 2011 12:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Kind of like http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2011/1/29/1963458/this-is-getting-too-complicated
Yeah, it does a pretty good job of proving general guesses wrong.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
things i want to see all over again
/sad trombone
/sad trombone
/sad trombone.
also wouldn’t mind jack edwards getting throat chopped.
Eat what the monkey eats, then eat the monkey. -U.S. Navy survival guidance
these are amazing.
thank you.
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by coheedandtbs on Apr 28, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d love to see this again.
Is it horrible laughing at children crying because we beat the crap out of their team?
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Good bye #12, you will always bleed Orange and Black.
by Lindbergh 31 on Apr 28, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Because we beat the crap out of their team? Certainly not.
Because they are simply victims of bad parenting? Yes.
Say hi to the bad guy.
Yankees/Flyers/Gunners
I went to school in Pittsburgh and, as luck would have it, became best friends with a girl whose family lives and dies with the Pens, Steelers and even the Pirates. I was invited to spend Easter weekend with her family- by this time her dad knew I was from the Philly area and a huge fan of the sports teams. Sitting at Easter dinner with the entire family her dad asks me (jokingly) “How does such a nice girl like you wind up being a Philly fan?” My response with a completely serious face “My dad raised me right”. The look on his face = priceless. He laughed. Then continued to (and still does to this day) rib me for my love of Philadelphia teams. With the help of the rest of the family…
See I hate Duke, but I can’t watch a little boy cry. Grown men, absolutely.
I remember when the Phils beat the Mets in 2007 to win the division and the back page of the NY Post had a picture of that little Mets fan bawling his eyes out. I was feeling so smug and full of delicious schaudenfreude until I saw that photo and then I felt just awful. Still glad that the Phils won, mind you, but had I seen my own son that upset…well, you get it, I’m sure.
Ever watch the LLWS? It’s heartbreaking sometimes.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
by doubleh on Apr 28, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Anyone else go over to Pensburgh to read the commiserating? Or am I the only 1 that gets some slight pleasure out of their misery and excuse making?
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
I don’t need read that any more than Geoff needs to watch a game
Defending Carter until 2021...
by Pardini36 on Apr 28, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hehehe.
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Broad Street Hockey.
by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 28, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope….
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Apr 28, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
New planet of the apes movie looks good
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions
FTFY
New No planet of the apes movie looks good
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
negative. This one looks good. Franco seems to be leading the cast
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I do like Franco a lot, so chances are I will see it, and by see it, I mean illegally download it and hope Comcast doesn’t send me another nastrygram.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I wish i downloaded more and had the patience. But with an epic amount of stuff on netflix, I can’t bring myself to sacrifice the bandwidth
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I have two computers at home…I download stuff on my home computer and then use my laptop for other internet browsing…I should do it differently but with the laptop I can “borrow” someone else’s internet feed…wow I am such an a$$hole.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
they will find out, sooner or later
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
What about the first one? Or the musical version from The Simpsons even?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
break dancing monkeys
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZfwO5oxO0A
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 28, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m a fan of the original POTA movie with Charlton Heston. Not a fan of most remakes of movies. The beauty of the original movie is the fact that it’s from 1968 and is considered classic SciFi. Best not to mess with it just because we have better filmmaking technology than they did back then.
Sarauj, Latvija!
I disagree. It looks stupid. It’s an attempt to cash in on the prequel and origin stories 5 years after they became stale.
by BroadStreetBully on Apr 28, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Accurate.
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by Travis Hughes on Apr 28, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. Somewhat surprising, but not entirely. I have a number of friends in Boston and they’re so used to listening to Jack Edwards that they really have come to believe that their team can do no wrong, and all teams the Bruins play are a combination of divers and cheaters. This decision will do nothing to dispel them from continuing this thought process.
Sarauj, Latvija!
We are SO spoiled here with our announcers. He’s so bad he makes the Pittsburgh guys look good.
"In fact, it is probably safe to say, the statement "I am a hockey fan" is the same as "I hate gary bettman."- bfrank27
Chara, Lucic, Krejci, and Bergeron
I’m gonna hate those guys in about one week. Kaberle doesn’t scare me even a little. Anyone else notice him pull his own team offsides twice in one powerplay last night?
Defending Carter until 2021...
Wow
That realignment article would start some arguments…would they really break up the rivalries of the Pens-Flyers-Rangers and the Bruins-Habs to make room for Detroit?
Defending Carter until 2021...
From Flyers FB feed...
Per Flyers GM Paul Holmgren. Jeff Carter is day-to-day with a lower-body injury; Andreas Nodl is day-to-day with an upper-body injury; Michael Leighton is day-to-day with a lower-body injury and James van Riemsdyk had a maintenance day today…
Lower body injury for Leighton? Does he keep his pride that low? Is it from getting his ass handed to him in Game 6? Does his five-hole hurt? There are WAY too many jokes that can be made about this….
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
Ryan Miller
Miller admitted today he was playing with concussion symptoms.
Defending Carter until 2021...
He missed four games leading up to it. Remember how when we were playing against Buffalo at the end of the regular season Miller came in off of the bench in the third?
Defending Carter until 2021...
Oh, so from before the series when Enroth was in net at the end of the regular season. Not sure why he’s going public now. Seems like his ego was bruised so he feels he’s got to say something. Perhaps he’s pissed at the local fans who were giving him a hard time.
Sarauj, Latvija!
Recording tonight. Geoff.
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by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 28, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
VAN-CHI & Corey Crawford, Round 2. Should be fun.
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Broad Street Hockey.
by Ben Rothenberg on Apr 28, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean where you apologize and paint a picture of you bowing down to me?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, guiltyyyyyyyyyy.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 28, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
As was pointed out elsewhere, the Canadiens got 9 points in the last series and Boston only got 8. So why did Boston advance?
Does anyone follow Richards’ twitter? Just browsing his tweets and came across these gems:
MRichie18 Michael Richards
Carts says I should if too a pic and posted it. Sorry maybe next time.
MRichie18 Michael Richards
Carts says I should OF TOOK a pic of the guy and posted it. Sorry still getting use to the I phone and cant type
Er…..or use proper grammar or spelling or whatever that even falls under…
I'm kind of a dick.
Vote csnphilly.com poll
Now. Which team do you want to win a championship:
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Flyers leading by slim margin over Eagles. Vote now!
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
By the DGS numbers
Hartnell Hartnell’d on 32% of his shifts (48/149), or one Hartnell every two minutes he played (48/114min).
Versteeg Hartnell’d on 16% of his shifts (26/157), or one Hartnell every four minutes he played (26/103min).
Mourning Gagne forever.
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