Listen To What The Man Said: Peter Laviolette’s Coaching Record. (Alternately: "Step Away From The Ledge!")

by mikefive on Apr 6, 2011 1:45 PM EDT

Peter Laviolette is known as a demanding coach who instills an up-tempo, puck-pursuit system in his teams. His system emphasizes conditioning because players are expected to keep their feet moving all over the ice. Players are expected to hit the blue line with speed, battle aggressively for pucks along the wall, actively cycle the puck in the offensive zone, win races for loose pucks all over the ice, back-check aggressively as they fore-check, and so on.

While I am not a professional athlete, I am very active in terms of working out. I usually engage in various forms of exercise six days a week, but I make sure to vary my routines. This is because I have learned firsthand how repetitive exercises – in which one pushes one’s body to the limit – can have negative consequences. At best, it leads to fatigue. At worst, it leads to injury.

Given the Flyers’ severe drop-off of late, I could not help but wonder whether or not it had to do with fatigue brought on in part by Peter Laviolette’s very demanding system of play. So I decided to look at his record as a head coach in the NHL and see how his teams started out each season (Games 1-47) and how they finished (Games 48-82).

The results may surprise you. The good news: We may get to step back from the ledge after all.

Before you go racing over to hockey-reference.com and tell me that my numbers are wrong, let me explain how my standings system works. It is basically the same system Geoff uses when he calculates Power Rankings.

First Column: Wins in Regulation and 5:00 OT Period.
Second Column: Losses in Regulation and 5:00 OT Period.
Third Column: Ties (2001-2004) / Shootout Appearances (2005-Present).

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how everyone has done under Laviolette.

FIRST 47 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON:

2001-02 NYI: 24-16-5
2002-03 NYI: 21-19-5
2003-04 CAR: 7-9-1 *
2005-06 CAR: 29-14-4
2006-07 CAR: 24-20-3
2007-08 CAR: 21-24-2
2008-09 CAR: 11-12-2 #
2009-10 PHI: 9-11-2 $
2010-11 PHI: 30-13-4

FINAL 35 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON:

2001-02 NYI: 18-14-3
2002-03 NYI: 13-15-7
2003-04 CAR: 13-17-5 *
2005-06 CAR: 15-14-6
2006-07 CAR: 16-17-2
2007-08 CAR: 18-12-5
2009-10 PHI: 17-16-2 $
2010-11 PHI: 14-15-6

PLAYOFFS?!?!? PLEASE, DO TALK ABOUT... PLAYOFFS:

2001-02 NYI: Lost 3-4 to Toronto in Conference Quarterfinals
2002-03 NYI: Lost 1-4 to Ottawa in Conference Quarterfinals
2003-04 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2005-06 CAR: WON STANLEY CUP
2006-07 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2007-08 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2009-10 PHI: Lost 2-4 to Chicago in Stanley Cup Finals
2010-11 PHI: Lost 0-4 to Boston in Conference Semifinals

KEY:

* : Mid-Season Replacement for Paul Maurice; first-half record is from Games 31-47.

# : Fired 25 games into Regular Season.

$ : Mid-Season Replacement for John Stevens; first-half record is from Games 26-47.

WHAT’S GOIN’ ON? (In Marvin Gaye Voice)

Peter Laviolette has coached six complete seasons. In three of them, his teams started strong and then dropped off - 2001-02 NYI, 2005-06 CAR, and 2010-11 PHI. Rate of occurrence: 50%
For two of the other complete seasons that Laviolette has coached, teams that started off mediocre slightly dropped off - 2002-03 NYI and 2006-07 CAR. Rate of occurrence: 33.33%
Only once during a full season coached did a mediocre Laviolette team improve – the 2007-08 Carolina Hurricanes. Rate of occurrence: 16.67%
During his two seasons as a mid-season replacement, one team improved slightly (last year’s Flyers) and one pretty much stayed the same – the 2003-04 Carolina Hurricanes. In fact, those ‘Canes were probably his most consistent team. Fancy that.

If we look at all eight of the seasons where Laviolette coached into the post-season (not including 2008-09):

Five of the teams dropped off to varying extents during the last 35 games. That’s 62.5% of the time.
Twice, teams improved during those last 35 games. That’s 25% of the time.
Once, a team remained consistent. That’s 12.5% of the time.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Laviolette’s up-tempo system may have something to do with the Flyers’ struggles. Given the fact that 62.5% of all Laviolette’s teams drop off over the last 35 games of the regular season, I don’t think it’s that far off to suggest something like this. Physical fatigue leads to injuries and mental mistakes, and we’ve been seeing both in spades lately. The mental part, in particular, may be why the Flyers can’t explain themselves after bad losses.

One more bit of hope: If the Flyers win their last two games this year, they’ll have the same record over their last 35 games that the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes did, and they turned out okay.

What do you all think?

Poll

What does the Flyers' record over the final 35 regular-season games mean for the playoffs?

Loss in the Conference Quarterfinals (Happens All The Time!)

12 votes

Loss in the Conference Semifinals (A Rarity in the Flyers' Overall Playoff History)

8 votes

Loss in the Conference Finals (Usually What Happens If The Flyers Make It Past Round One)

9 votes

Loss in the Stanley Cup Finals (A Seventh Straight Time?)

0 votes

"Ladies and Gentlemen... The Flyers! Are going to WIN! The STANLEY CUP!"

33 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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Comments

Good eye opening post. Thanks for looking all of this up.

by James Cox on Apr 6, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

*Makes me feel slightly more comfortable going into the playoffs

by James Cox on Apr 6, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m surprised most people think they’re going to win the Cup.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 6, 2011 9:15 PM EDT reply actions

I’m not. I’ve learned a lot about the attitudes of many Flyers fans this season.

Really interesting read though, Mike.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Apr 6, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks. It’s something I’ve been thinking about ever since the 4-game losing streak in the beginning of March. I just never got around to researching it.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 6, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Hah

So true. If anything, I’m happy to see us “regress to the mean” so to speak, in terms of fan attitudes. Optimism just doesn’t suit Philly fans.

Mourning Hartnell's hair

by Toomin on Apr 6, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Seven straight losses in the Finals is like, almost Buffalo Bills bad.

I think if they make the Finals, they win the whole thing. If they make the Conference Finals, they win the whole thing. If they’re gonna be eliminated, it’s going to come early. They either have IT or they don’t, you know?

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Broad Street Hockey - SBN's Philadelphia Flyers blog. 2010 Eastern Conference Champions.

by Travis Hughes on Apr 6, 2011 10:51 PM EDT reply actions

couldn't agree more

I’m pretty sure we’re going to find out pretty early what’s what with this bunch. If they are saving it, it’ll show in the first couple of games. If they really are a changed (for the worse) team, then they we’ll see the same old crap we’ve been seeing the last 20 games or so.

Cutting down the mightiest trees in the forest with herrings since 1981 and channeling my inner Hextall since '87

by goldomatic on Apr 6, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Nothing is ever going to be Buffalo Bills bad like that. Losing the championship game four years in a row?

I used to like those teams. I loved Jim Kelly throwing the ball to Andre Reed, and I enjoyed watching Thurman Thomas do his thing.

They should have beat the Giants in the first game at the very least. I can understand losing to those Cowboys teams twice in a row, but the Bills should have won ONCE.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 7, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Great read, Mike.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 7, 2011 9:16 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 7, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Addendum:

As I said to Todd above,

[The topic of this article is] something I’ve been thinking about ever since the 4-game losing streak in the beginning of March.

I’d been thinking about this since then because of Laviolette himself. After the Flyers’ loss to Ottawa at the end of February, the team had a chunk of time off and Laviolette ran a series of very intense practices. The purpose was to up the team’s conditioning level and get them ready for the stretch run, so that by the playoffs the team would be in top physical form.

At the time, Laviolette admitted that the practices would take their toll on the players, and that the team would regress as a result. I’m not sure if he ever said this on-camera, but he did say it to the play-by-play guys, who in turn repeated it on their respective broadcasts. I remember Jim Jackson repeating this several times after the Flyers started winning again.

Since then, I figured that Laviolette was speaking from experience – he had always taken this approach with teams as the playoffs drew near and had some success with it. He coached the 1997-98 Wheeling Nailers to the ECHL Eastern Conference Finals; he led the 1998-99 Providence Bruins to a Calder Cup championship; he won the Cup with Carolina in 2006.

So Laviolette’s words and prior experience led me to wonder whether or not most of his teams regressed in the latter stages of the season… and indeed, most of them did (and still do).

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 7, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions