Monday Morning Fly By: Why Trade Draft Picks When You Can Just Not Sign Them?
by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 6:00 AM EDT
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Today's open discussion thread, complete with your daily dose of Philadelphia Flyers news and notes...
- The Flyers lost the rights to center Dave Labrecque and goalie Nic Riopel: [Philly Sports Daily]
- A nice article asking if Paul Holmgren is still the right guy to be GM. No, it's not a witch hunt, and no it's not saying he should be fired. It's calm and rational and worth the read: [Flyers Faithful]
- This article is from a week ago, but looking at what Mike Richards probably went through while playing with his wrist injury: [Philly Reign]
- Donald Brashear won his MMA debut... in 21 seconds: [Puck Daddy]
- Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final saw some pretty poor ratings after posting some of the best in Game 1: [Puck Daddy]
- Testing the theory that some teams are built for the playoffs while others are built for the regular season: [Objective NHL]
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Looking at our garbage heap of lost prospects I can’t even say “Stanley Cup or bust” anymore; it’s more like “Bust whether or not we win the Stanley Cup.” I’m not saying we’re going to be terrible in a couple of seasons, but the thought of a long bout of mediocrity looms over my future predictions. Channeling my inner Chris Pronger, I’d say Karnak might need some Prozac if asked to prognosticate for the Flyers.
I also don’t see how Holmgren retains his position past this upcoming season without a Cup win. And even then, damage done.
It seems a good time for to pose this question (which has been no doubt already been posed): If we win the Cup, are you OK with several seasons of mediocrity following it?
by A Flyers Phamily on Jun 6, 2011 7:28 AM EDT reply actions
To give my opinion on your question, it would honestly depend on how long the mediocrity lasted. Say we win the Cup next season, I’d be fine with not winning one for a couple years, but I would get annoyed after a while if it took another 30+ years to win again.
The Flyers are 2011 Atlantic Division Champs, the Phillies just keep winning pennant after pennant. Great time to be a fan of those two teams on Broad Street.
That doesn’t really mean mediocrity. We haven’t one a cup since 75 but I wouldn’t define the last 36 years as mediocre. Haha, I wonder how many other teams can say that
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I would take a Cup even if it meant three seasons of 0-82 to follow.
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by Ben Rothenberg on Jun 6, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
At this point, I think I would to, though 0-82 might be stretching it a bit…
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by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Uhhh, didn’t they loose Joacim Eriksson not Riopel?
Following Dan Carcillo where ever he may go
Giving up isn't an option
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The Flyers are 2011 Atlantic Division Champs, the Phillies just keep winning pennant after pennant. Great time to be a fan of those two teams on Broad Street.
We apparently have a blatant disregard for goalies that play out of their mind in the Memorial Cup.. We draft them but then let them walk. I really feel like we didn’t give Riopel much of a chance.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 8:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I feel that way too. Last year, the team decided it would rather sign John Grahame than let Riopel be the AHL starter for two months. I said as much last August:
This might all be the fault of John Grahame. Or Michael Leighton, depending on your point of view. Last year, when Ray Emery went down, the Flyers recalled Johan Backlund to sit behind Brian Boucher. On December 12th, the Flyers signed John Grahame to an AHL contract, presumably to split time with Nic Riopel in Glens Falls. But on December 15th, the Flyers claimed Leighton off of waivers.
This then created a logjam of goalies, with Boucher and Leighton in the NHL and Backlund and Grahame in the AHL, while Ray Emery was still hoping to return. As a result, Riopel was sent back to Juniors. Now, had Grahame never been signed (and really, would anybody have noticed?), the Phantoms would have likely kept Riopel on their roster, at least until Emery returned. Rather than sending Riopel back to Moncton – where he had nothing left to prove, after winning the league’s player of the year award the year before – the Flyers would have let him start a few games until Leighton arrived in Philly and Backlund returned to Glens Falls.
If Riopel was behind Backlund all year, he would have conceivably gotten up to 25 additional starts in the AHL – accounting for Grahame, Jeremy Duchesne, Michael Lee-Teslak, and Carter Hutton’s starts. Assuming Riopel the pro stayed healthy like Riopel the amateur, the Flyers would have kept Duchesne and Teslak in the ECHL and not signed Carter Hutton – who also sat on the bench for the Flyers.
Instead, the Flyers pushed back his AHL tryout at least a year. As if anyone needed another reason to dislike John Grahame, this is it.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. And then we let DeSerres walk too, and he had that incredible shutout streak last year then after we let him go, he was the MVP of the Memorial Cup tournament this year.
I hate that we have a whole mess of new contracts on our 50 man roster that are guys I know nothing about, but that guys like DeSerres and Riopel aren’t even given a chance.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m inclined to agree, but I’m not going to get upset over DeSerres and Riopel. It’s frustrating that the Flyers continually decide to have older, crappy goalies play in the AHL instead of younger goalies, but I don’t think DeSerres would have made the NHL. Riopel was a longshot. But Riopel should have been given an AHL job last year rather than forced to go back to Juniors.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I’m not saying so much that I thought they would make it, I think I’m just annoyed that nobody seems to be getting a fair shake.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Just as a related question – which prospect rankings/ratings do you guys trust most? Maybe Homer is reading a different one? (Possibly written by Glen Sather for exclusive release to the Flyers …) But seriously, how did DeSerres and Riopel compare to other goalies? And isn’t it pretty common around the league for teams to lose draft choices after a couple years in the minors?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
This isn’t about DeSerres (who I’m okay with letting go) or Riopel (who I’m more upset he wasn’t given a chance in 09-10), at least not for me.
It’s Eriksson. It’s not having draft picks, then not signing the ones you keep. It’s having no prospects in the system, and saying the ones you do have aren’t worth retaining. It’s purging a system that’s already barren. I’m not up in arms (though I am for Eriksson), but it’s just incredible to see the Flyers say only Eric Wellwood was good from 2009.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t they just sign Matt Read, who everyone thinks is a great prospect? Aren’t they moderately well-loaded as far as defensive prospects with Marshall, Bourdon, Gustafsson, Lehtivuori, and Lauridsen? Sure – the cupboard is a bit bare; I can’t argue that. But I think you’re taking this too hard, possibly because of the eternal Philly fear of lacking the goalie. Maybe the team has that much confidence in Bob, no? And at the NHL level, you don’t need replacements for your top three (arguably four) centers for eons, with Briere, Richards, Carter, and Giroux under contract until 2014-15 at a minimum.
So I see your point – I just think everyone is over-reacting.
And I am serious – what prospect ranking system do you guys figure is most reliable? from http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl_organisation_rankings/?start=24
Strengths: The Flyers have mined the free-agent prospect pool and invested late picks judiciously to augment their ongoing lack of early-round draft selections. In addition to the recently graduated goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, three of the Flyers’ top ten prospects were free-agent signings. Of the other seven, none were first-rounders and only one was a second-round selection. They possess respectable depth on the wings as well as the blue line to complement a relatively complete team bursting with talented centermen at the NHL level. Weaknesses: Philadelphia has been in win-now mode, adding big-ticket veterans to a young core of players on the big club. That approach has left them with few assets to invest in highly bankable prospects in terms of both their long-term ceiling and their immediate ability to contribute. Despite the development of Bobrovsky and their top-rated prospect Joacim Eriksson, lingering uncertainty in goal casts its shadow over the present and future of the organization. Top 5 Prospects: 1. Joacim Eriksson, G, 2. Eric Wellwood, LW, 3. Erik Gustafsson, D, 4. Brendan Ranford, LW, 5. Joonas Lehtivuori, D. Lost to Graduation: Andreas Nodl, Oskars Bartulis, Sergei Bobrovsky. Lost to Trade: Patrick Maroon.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Does Matt Read make up for not having a prospect from the first 5 rounds of 2009? I hardly think one “great prospect”, if you even want to say as much about Read, makes up for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round pick.
Yes, they have some good defensive prospects, mainly Kevin Marshall and Erik Gustafsson. But Lehtivuori is essentially done, Bourdon has concussion problems and hasn’t shown any offensive skill in the AHL. Lauridsen’s ceiling is a #6 defenseman.
Further, I don’t see how you can ever say a team walking away from their #1 prospect is overreacting. I don’t care about Bob, since Eriksson wouldn’t have been in NA until Bob’s final season of his ELC, at the earliest. Plus, while the team doesn’t need any top-9 centers, they certainly need top-9 wingers, and they have very, very few of them.
As far as which ranking system, Hockey’s Future is pretty much the only one I know of.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Alright – so I looked in Hockey’s Future for prospect goalies. Of the top 50 prospects, only four are goalies (I’m discounting Bernier – he’s not a prospect in my eyes, he’s an NHL player). And of those four, only Braden Holtby (#33) and Jake Allen (#42) had decent years. So perhaps the goalie market is just that weak? I mean, no one knew where Bob came from last season, right? Eriksson isn’t in their top 50 prospects at all – is this REALLY cause for concern then? If the team is so close on their contract numbers (as DG points out) then you definitely want to retain only people that can contribute – and Eriksson doesn’t sound like he would have done so. Furthermore, HF points out that the team is, in fact, stocking the prospect pool via free agents and trades, not drafting. (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/12990/free_agent_signings_headline_philadelphia_flyers_ncaa_and_european_prospect_pool/) So again – is this so horrible???
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Here’s how I look at it:
If losing your #1 prospect isn’t a big deal because he isn’t very good, the “distress” simply shifts from: “They didn’t sign their #1 prospect” to “They’re #1 prospect is as good as most team’s #13.”
You may be trying to look on the bright side, but restocking the prospect pool with undrafted free agents is the only thing they can do. Saying it’s a good thing is inherent, since the only alternative is to sign 12 Denis Hamel’s. I don’t see how they should get positive points for signing the Harry Zolniercyzk’s of the world instead of the Kris Kolanos’.
So yes, it is that horrible. Either you look at it as the Flyers letting their best prospect walk for nothing, or you look at it as their best prospect was so bad he wasn’t worth retaining. Pick your poison.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess i’m going with #2 – their seeming disdain for high draft picks means that their highest prospects aren’t worth keeping. But I don’t necessarily think that it is to the detriment of the on-ice product.
I mean, there are five goalies under contract for next year already (Bobrovsky, Leighton, Backlund, Hovinen, and Stewart). That’s too many NHL goalie contracts, so someone has to get moved – hopefully for prospects or picks. The team raped the farm system in getting the current NHL lineup; we all agree on that point. Now they should look at restocking, perhaps at the risk of reducing the depth at defense or center. If Holmgren can get a former third-round pick prospect for Leighton, isn’t that adequate?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Stewart is a Restricted Free Agent. There are 4 goalies under contract for next year, only 3 of whom will be playing in North America.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
RFA means he is under contract, but they need to tender a qualify, no? I guess I’m splitting hairs on that one. But is there any reason Hovinen can’t come over? Some oddity about the transfer agreements?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
It doesn’t mean he’s under contract, it means he’s a free agent, but the Flyers can match the offer he accepts.
And Hovinen won’t come over. It’s not that he can’t, it’s that he won’t.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
No, RFA means you need to give him a new contract or let him walk. He is not included in the 40 contracts signed, but rather he would take up one of the 10 open spaces.
And 5 goalies under contract is not way too many, it’s just barely the recommended minimum.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmm. I thought as long as you tendered a qualifying offer at the current contract plus 10%, you had the player under conditional contract, barring another team tendering an offer.
And yes – I misspoke about the number of goalies. What I meant was ‘too many NHL-contract goalies’. The only minor-league contracts are Hovinen and (potentially) Stewart.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, RFA means they’re not included in that count of 40. So neither are Powe, Nodl, Carcillo, or Sestito.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
So realistically, the team could tender those five, and only have room for five more contracts? That DOES suck. The contract number makes the whole roster situation harder than I thought. Especially considering the UFAs certainly don’t count, and there are 5 of those on the NHL roster as it stands …
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. And there are no exceptions to the 50 contract limit; so just because Lappy is probably never going to play again doesn’t stop him from counting towards that 50.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Slide Rule?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry. But that would only apply if we had guys who were subject to it; there are no exceptions for the 40 we have.
We just have to move them by giving up more in trade that we take back.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
haha, right. But there are exceptions, they just don’t apply to the Flyers because they don’t have draft picks.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I was just trying to say there’s no way we can circumvent what we have now. LTIR, sending people to Europe, etc, that doesn’t get rid of them.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
And why I want Jen to write that fanpost
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by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, if he’s tendered, it’s a conditional contract. But like you said, as of now he’s not under contract.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
But your point about the number of contracts would still stand until he’s tendered, I suppose – so you’re stil not wrong.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Once we give him a qualifying offer he takes up one of those 10 open spots until the offer expires 2 weeks later, yes. But is he really the best use of one of those 10 spots?
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
What Jen said.
And good luck getting a third round pick for Leighton when nobody in the NHL wanted him for free, AND at a 50% discount.
But like I said below, no, it isn’t adequate. The team doesn’t have a 1st or 2nd round pick in the organization covering the last 4 years (12, 11, 10, 09 drafts). Getting a third round pick (i.e. Jacob DeSerres, Simon Bertilsson, Marc-Andre Bourdon, Oskars Bartulis, Adam Morrison, Michael Chaput, Garrett Klotz, Jon Matsumoto) doesn’t make up depth at all.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, somebody might take him this year since they’d actually play him. I still have a sneaky suspicion that nobody may have been able to claim Leighton this year because they would have needed to have the cap space to do so, and not everybody did.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
They only needed $800k in cap space, and by the time he was waived, half the teams were out of the playoffs. Then a quarter of the teams needed backups for next year (Detroit, particularly), so at least 75% of the league decided they didn’t want a backup next year at $800k at no cost to them.
Now people think teams will pay him $1.6 million AND give up something to get him? I don’t buy it.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
No, no, I meant somebody might claim him off reentry waives if it happened this year.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
haha, oh. Yes, that I agree with.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Why not? Compared to some of the other albatross goalie contracts around the league, it’s not a bad deal.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet the League showed it didn’t want that contract at half price, for nothing, for one year.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t put too much stock in that, though. At the end of the year, a lot of teams are cutting it close on their 50 man limit. So finding teams with the cap space for the claim + the open contract spot + interest wasn’t going to be as likely as it may have been earlier in the year.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
19 teams had at least $800k in cap space last year at the end of the season.
And as many as 25 teams had room on their 50-contract limit (I don’t feel like figuring out whether players slid or not).
In other words, your worries are legit, but I believe over stated. Plenty of teams were capable of taking on Leighton’s contract.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Of those teams, which had a demonstrable NEED at the time? And which wanted to keep that money and/or roster space open for just-in-case? I say he’s more marketable now, regardless of anyone taking him last season. The off-season is far more flexible than the end of the trade deadline.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s more marketable despite being twice as expensive and not free? All because teams couldn’t look ahead 2 weeks?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, true. But that was, again, LAST YEAR. For example, the Calgary Flames have TWO goalies under contract as of today, with one RFA. That seems like a much greater need than the Flyers’, no??? I think if Leighton is marketed well, perhaps in a package with another player, they could definitely move him.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but those teams weren’t claiming him for LAST YEAR, since he couldn’t have played for them LAST YEAR. Those teams knew he couldn’t play for them in the 10-11 season, so if he was claimed, it would have been for 11-12 season.
You’re essentially saying: Calgary was unable to foresee – after they had been eliminated from the playoffs – that they would only have two goalies under contract for 11-12. Further, Calgary was unaware that Leighton was signed for next year. As such, they didn’t claim him because they didn’t know he’d solve their issues.
But saying that the Flyers could move Leighton if they package him with another player is entirely different. The Flyers won’t get anything for Leighton. They may be able to get rid of him, but nobody is going to trade for Michael Leighton when they passed on him for half price, with no cost to their organization.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Whatever.
You start speaking in absolutes, I start tuning out.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutes? You’re claiming Calgary didn’t consider that they only had 2 goalies under contract when Leighton went on re-entry, but now they’d be willing to trade for a guy at full cost when they could have had him for free at half cost because they couldn’t look ahead when their season was already over?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
But, um, Calgary was at the contract limit already… http://www.capgeek.com/reserve_lists.php?team_id=9&year_id=2010
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
And there were 25 other teams who weren’t.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I get that, but it just completely invalidates any discussion about Calgary; which I realize he brought up and not you.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. And there are teams like Columbus, Dallas, Colorado, NYR, etc. who had roster space, cap space, and a need for a backup goalie in 11-12.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Which is all well and good, I was just refuting the Calgary example.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
:)
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s too many NHL goalie contracts
For the record, we had, I think, 7 under contract in 2009-10 and still needed to use professional tryout contracts to get us through the year.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
OOOH – I get to play Geoff, and chide you for small sample size!!! :) But yeah – shit happens. That was just ridiculous.
And the #1 prospect organization according to HF is Los Angeles, which has the same 4 goalie contracts with 1 RFA goalie situation as us.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
But the #2 organization has 3 under contract, 2 RFA, and 1 UFA.
SMALL SAMPLES FOR ALL!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
As far as small sample size goes, I just counted the 50 man lists for all 30 teams. Only 11 had just 4 goalies on their list. 8 of those 11 have what they would consider a franchise-level goaltender. The other 3 missed the playoffs.
Is Bob a franchise level goaltender?
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The way the team is gambling, they seem to think Bob definitely IS that franchise goalie. Otherwise letting the other prospect goalies walk seems even more strange, no?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that they seem to think so; and I want Bob to turn out to be that good, but he’s not a Lundqvist, Brodeur, Vokoun, or Miller yet.
The scary part for me is we have 3 goalies who will be in North America, 2 of whom have a fairly significant injury history, at least recently. Signing replacements if one of those gets hurt requires one of the 10 contract spots.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
So where is the real problem? Is it too many minor league contracts that can’t be ignored (as I understand the slide rule)? It can’t be (almost be definition) the number of NHL contracts, can it?
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
These are all NHL contracts. A two-way deal where the player is playing in the minors is still an NHL SPC. So they cannot be ignored, because there’s no distinction between them and JVR’s contract. The slide rule only applies to certain situations where the player is 18 or 19 years old; and we have zero players signed who are under 20.
An actual ‘minor-league’ deal is where the player is on an AHL one-way contract, and is not eligible to be called up to the Flyers. Those players are technically property of the Phantoms, and not property of the Flyers. In some cases we may own the right to sign them to an NHL contract, but they actually are contracted to Adirondack.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
As always, thanks for the clarification. Learn something new every day … and yes, that does make a difference in how I’m thinking about all this.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
LA, by the way, has a pretty high calibre goaltender in Jonathan Quick and has up to 19 available spots, not 10.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Eriksson got overlooked a bit by HF (he doesn’t even have a rating in their system). He was considered pretty darn close to Markstrom, the #11 prospect, for talent. Obviously, we can’t say where he should be, but I think if he was in the Juniors or AHL, he’d be on the list.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jun 6, 2011 12:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it’s more upsetting because of the philosophy it illustrates more so than the actual player we lost. There’s really no rational for it and that’s frightening.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
What’s weird for me is that a lot of the new contracts on the 50 man list aren’t our draft picks, but I guess undrafted free agents. Jason Akeson, Harry Zolnierczyk (who I know played with the Phantoms for a bit this year), Tyler Brown, Brandon Manning…. None of these guys are our draft picks. Plus Matt Read, even though we actually know something about that one.
That’s choosing a lot of undrafted free agents over your draft picks.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
So at least they’re consistent – the team doesn’t value draft picks and trades them away constantly, nor do they care much about keeping those few they get the chance to exercise.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup. The problem is how unlikely it is that those guys pan out. The team says they’re “proven”, I say they beat up on younger or worse players. Draft picks turn pro by the age of 20. Undrafted college guys turn pro at 22. So while the “most recent season was successful”, it came while the guy was 21 playing against 19 and 20 year olds, or other guys who won’t be turning pro.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. And they’re all older, none of them are subject to slide rule or anything else that stops them from clogging up the 50 man roster.
We’re probably going to find out about more picks we’ve lost soon, because there is absolutely no room to sign anyone. The one draft pick we did sign was Lauridsen. We have 10 spots left to fill in any of the RFAs or UFAs we want to keep. To put some perspective on that 10, we have 8 UFAs and 9 RFAs that expired this year. While I know alot of those will not be back, it’s still not much breathing room because we don’t really have a full NHL roster right now.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
none of them are subject to slide rule or anything else that stops them from clogging up the 50 man roster.
This is the biggest issue a lot of people don’t realize that not having draft picks causes.
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Yep. And you can never fill all 10 of those spots, because you need to have at least 1 or 2 open in case you need to grab a free agent or pick somebody up off waivers midseason.
Oh, and out of those 40 filled spots, there’s only 4 goalies.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Hit post too soon….
One of whom is Hovinen, who we already know is staying in Europe for 2011-12. So at least 1 of those 10 spots is needed for an AHL backup, unless we want somebody on an AHL one-way deal (meaning they cannot be called up), the way Riopel was this past season.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Duh, Carter Hutton. :)
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure, so when we have goalie injuries, we’re going to break out record number of goalies used from 2009-10? We could go a month and having a different goalie on a one day tryout contract for every game!
It would help with the cap though, since those guys don’t get paid.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
haha, nah, you just use re-entry waivers to get rid of contracts :)
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Pretend like that isn’t proof of how terrible of a contract it was in the first place.
/Leighton’d
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
If you have time, I’d recommend putting together a fanpost highlighting the importance of this. It’s something I don’t think a lot of people think about or even know about.
Not to try to make your days an busier or anything hahaha.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
That’s a good idea. I’ll try to do it tonight, but no guarantees.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay Don, it’s up; let me know if it’s not coherent, I don’t write very well when I have a headache.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
haha…now I feel horrible for having you do it.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
No, writing it was still easier than having the same argument every day for the rest of the summer
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s been rec’d
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I had rec’d it too.
DG for a masthead spot?
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I’m just glad she brought it up. I was going to mention the rule but didn’t have the CBA block quotes to make it legit. She brought it up and had the homework done, so I’ll nominate her for spot just because she saved me from doing work.
Seriously…signing these undrafted guys is handicapping the team in ways people don’t understand yet. That fanpost will be a big help as to understanding why it does handicap the organization.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
It’s why I love this place. I’ve been watching since the year before the lockout, but never regularly until a few years after the lockout. And never this detailed until I found BSH and started lurking last season, then joined during the playoffs. I understand a ton more now.
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
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Definition: Bad-assery on skates
A lot of times you can link to CapGeek’s FAQ, they do have short explanations for things like the slide rule there. But the context of the team was important today, I think.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I just went through and counted it for the fanpost I’m going to try to write later, but I’ll post this now…. no other team has painted themselves into a corner as much as we have by only having 10 open spots on our 50 man contract list. The next closest team has 14 open spots, and only a handful out outstanding RFAs, and that’s Detroit. Nobody else has less than 15, and most have far more than that. Egad.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but look at all those late bloomers! We’re set.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Example: At age 19, Andreas Nodl was a ppg player in college.
Recent undrafted free agent signing Harry Zolniercyzk wasn’t a ppg player in college until age 22, when Nodl was already 38 games into his NHL career.
The difference between a 2nd round pick and an undrafted free agent… Essentially, you’re putting all your cards in the basket of “late bloomer” and “if he can beat up on younger guys in college, he can beat up on younger guys in the AHL.” And yet that doesn’t always work out: Harper, Shane; Pither, Luke; Rowe, Andrew.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
And how about Leino, Ville??
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
It happens, just not nearly as frequently to make it a sustainable replacement strategy.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
So you’re going to build a strategy around having failed NHL projects (does nobody remember Leino’s miserable NHL career up to that point??) fall in your lap, then turn out to be first line players?
Good luck with that.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
No – I’m going to say that the core of the team is signed for the next foreseeable future, and I’m going to build around that. Sure, that means you need to get some lucky breaks like Leino. But so does every team in the salary cap era. Whether its a drafted prospect or a late-blooming free agent, what’s the difference?
You’re starting to get beyond the point. It is NOT like the team has no one playing that was drafted here. Who drafted JVR? Giroux? Bartulis? Dare I say Rinaldo? Not to mention the likes of Carter and Richards themselves – that core that the team is built around. But yes – Backlund and Bobrovsy are both undrafted players. So???
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, that’s the whole point. We have no one like Giroux, Richards, or Carter coming through the system for the foreseeable future. Those players are actually the argument that what the Flyers are doing is wrong.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Shhh! They’re the core, so we don’t need any more of them.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha, I’ve actually perpetuated this exact argument with more complicated rationalizations. I have a more optimistic view of the Flyers future, but it’s almost entirely based on the hope that the cap will continue to rise and that management will defy the sample size I have and make more efficient decisions regarding draft picks and prospects. I’m grasping at future straws, but you can convince yourself of pretty much anything when your sanity depends on it.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. People can say it’s not going to be a problem, so long as they acknowledge the difficulties in fielding a competitive NHL team without 1st round picks based on finding value contracts on the free agent scrap heap.
You can build around a core, but that’s usually done – as the Flyers have done for the last 4 years – with 1st round picks (Giroux, JVR, Sbisa, etc.) and lucky finds (Leino, Bobrovsky, etc.). But without 1st round picks, you’re relying solely on lucky finds (Testwuide, Wellwood, Read, etc.), which is a dangerous course.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly right. You want to build around your core players (also known as “depth”) with other good players, but you have to be able to afford them as well. Hence the need for a good prospect pool, and their sexy ELCs.
by A Flyers Phamily on Jun 6, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Your “foreseeable future” must only be 11-12 then, or your “core” is really small. You have Briere, Richards, Carter, Giroux, Hartnell, Shelley, Pronger, Timonen, Meszaros, Bartulis and Bobrovsky signed in 12-13. Three of those guys will be 35 or older.
Whether its a drafted prospect or a late-blooming free agent, what’s the difference?
The difference? Those drafted prospects are a lot more likely to succeed. Those “late-blooming free agents” clog up the 50-contract limit. That’s the difference.
Who drafted JVR? Giroux? Bartulis? Dare I say Rinaldo? Not to mention the likes of Carter and Richards themselves – that core that the team is built around.
If you want to say Bartulis and Rinaldo are “core” players, by all means, go for it. But you know what’s great about JVR, Giroux, Richards, and Carter? They were first round picks who cost less than $1.5 million when they came to the team. And produced as top-9 players for cheap for multiple years.
Undrafted players? Not top-9 players. And the Flyers don’t have any over the course of 4 years. That’s a large gap to bridge with only long-shot free agents.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Uh – no. The ‘core’ is Carter and Richards, very small indeed. And they’re signed until the end of time. Add to them some mixture of free agents and promoted Phantoms, be they drafted or not, and you have a competitive team. One could argue that some teams are built around one player as a core – like Buffalo being built around Miller, or Calgary around Iginla. The Flyers have two ‘cornerstone’ players, and just have to assemble the rest around them. And before you argue that doesn’t work, I suggest you see how many Cups Crosby already has.
In the salary cap era, you can either be a competitive team (like the Flyers have been) forever and never have the extra bit, or you can sell your future for a win-now philosophy (like Chicago did, and they did alright last season). I can’t decide which is worse. You apparently think the ‘win-now’ philosophy is morally bankrupt somehow – good for you, and my instincts tend to agree. But then the team should NOT have signed Carter, and traded him away for draft picks or prospects to restock the system. You cannot have your cake and eat it too. Even Detroit has gaps – you never have a fully deep lineup from top to bottom, even though most would say their team is deep as hell. Conversely, the Penguins have as much NHL depth as a kiddie pool – and yet they managed to pull the Cup out of their ass in 2009. You choose.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t say the Penguins have no depth at all, their AHL call-ups this year certainly pulled their weight. And they called a lot of guys up, to the point where they depleted Wilkes Barre/Scranton. Even accounting for how many guys were called up, the baby Pens were still had the highest points total in the AHL by a huge margin.
I’m not going to say they’re the deepest team in the NHL or anything, but I think their farm system deserves a little bit more credit than a kiddie pool.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok- that’s fair. But we also can admit that they overperformed significantly this season. I was more referring to their Cup team of ’09. My misstatement.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Giroux and JVR are included in that core. Hartnell and Timonen’s money will go right to them.
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Are they really? How many ‘core’ players can one team manage to have? I would argue three or four AT MOST – and until their contracts expire, the other two in Philly are Pronger and Timonen. The team isn’t building around G or JVR, they’re building around Richie and Carts.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The team isn’t building around G or JVR, they’re building around Richie and Carts.
You think the Flyers are taking calls on Giroux’s availability right now?
Yeah, they’re not. I remember an old news article from when Gagne was a rookie, and people would call about his availability…. and Clarkie would laugh and hang up the phone. That’s what I think Homer is doing now.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely not – but that doesn’t make them the ‘core’ either. Merely indispensible.
/splitting hairs
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I cannot believe how hard it is to find that picture. Hmm.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
This?
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
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How?! Where?! I just googled for a solid 20 minutes and couldn’t find it!
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
I searched “WTF cat” haha.
And then I also searched BSH for “FlyerRob Cat” and found this: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/1/28/1960498/friday-morning-fly-by-why-dont-you-write-a-headline#57948956
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You apparently think the ‘win-now’ philosophy is morally bankrupt somehow –
Not at all. But you seem to think the Flyers aren’t in “win-now” and that they will be fine mortgaging the future. As the lineup below suggests, you’re relying on a 35 year old Briere, 31-year old Hartnell, Wellwood, and Nodl, to consist half of your top-9.
If you think that’s a competitive team, by all means. I think you’re hoping upon hope that it’s competitive.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Geoff, Geoff – remember who you’re talking to here. I’m NOT counting on Briere or Hartnell; if anything, I think they’re the premier trade bait on the team. I DO think the Flyers are in ‘win-now’ mode, they HAVE mortgaged the future to do so, and if that’s the decision so be it. I definitely prefer a team that promotes from within rather than hunts free agents endlessly, especially considering the cap ramifications. We’re not the damn Blueshirts, are we??? But now that the team has gone down that path, you have to go all the way – half measures either way don’t work. You either suck it up and build from within, hoping for enough developing players to spark you to a championship OR you take it all and put it on the table. Chicago had developing players, and timed their emergence with the acquistion of free agents in an all-or-nothing bid for the Cup … which you may remember that they won. Even before that everyone chastized them for poor cap management – but they won. Now, they’ve had to disassemble that team, and they got stopped in the first round this year. But THEY WON a Cup! It practically justifies everything. Compare that to the Lindros era, where the Flyers traded so much for E … and never won shit. You choose.
That all said, you are definitely being uncompromisingly negative. Sure, someone has to step up every year. Last year, it was Giroux and Leino. This year it was JVR and Bob. Note, one of each pair was drafted here and one was a free agent of some sort. Risky? Sure. You’re putting tons of pressure on your scouts to find unseen gems in the rough – remember how we all slotted Thoresen as a top-six forward, just because we desperately needed a winger on those lines?? So yeah – this season, someone else needs a breakout season. I don’t care if its Read, Wellwood, or Luuko – someone needs to fill the spot. And then they also need an overachieving free agent to fill a winger spot as well.
Touchy and risky? Yep. But what else would you have them do? Realistically, how many high draft picks have gone for naught over the years? Where’s Mike Ratchuk now? There are risks either way. And since a pretty big portion of the team is set in stone for the next foreseeable future with Richie and Carter, you have to tailor your expectations and move forward with that assumption.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
You’ve essentially argued my entire point. I want to say “low five” but I feel like that’s not accurate.
I’ve never said the Flyers are doomed and will miss the playoffs. In fact, I’ve repeatedly argued against “win-now” mode, but I accepted that this year. It is why I am against trading Carter, Carle, Coburn, or any of the other names people have advocated for moving to get a goalie.
But those people who are saying “what’s the big deal? They’re prospects” are ignoring the fact that the Flyers have been competitive for the last 3 years because they had:
Coburn: $1.2 mil
Giroux: $822k
JvR: $1.16 mil
Leino: $800k
Bob: $1.8 mil
There’s three top-9 forwards, a top-4 D, and a #1 goalie combining to cost $5.6 million. So why do prospects matter? Because the Flyers aren’t betting on a former 1st round pick contributing like that (Coburn, Giroux, JvR), they’re betting on more undrafted free agents coming in and putting up 50 points or a 0.923 ESSv%.
That’s a risky gamble, one that people are ignoring. Wellwood, Testwuide, and Read are not JvR, Giroux, and Nodl.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Homer.
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by Chemistry66 on Jun 6, 2011 9:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
All this ratings stuff is driving me batty, because so few people are using any context when they talk about it. Game 1 this year was on a Wed as opposed to a Sat, which is a better date, while game 2 this year was on a Sat and last year it was on a Monday (albeit a holiday). US TV watchers so rarely give Sat a second look, but Canadians are used to watching hockey on Sat nights. I just feel like people are whining too much over it.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 8:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I should say that Puck Daddy did mention the context; but their article is the only one I’ve seen that did.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 8:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was a little annoyed that they didn’t mention the context of the 2010 NBA Finals game 1 when they compared it to the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals game 1.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
What would the context be? Sorry I know nothing about the NBA. The fact that it was on at 9:00 at night on a Thursday, or the fact that Wikipedia says Boston was outplayed for basically the entire game? Or do you have more than that?
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s all I have as well and I’m not trying to make a point about it either way. I just would’ve liked the article to mention it so I didn’t have to look it up and fill in that blank myself.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll tell you what was annoying. Settling in for what I expected to be a fierce OT period in Game 2 only to have the game end 11 seconds later.
Sarauj, Latvija!
Yup. I prematurely shot my wad, so to speak, on what was supposed to be a dry run.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s crucial.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t get a FlyBy birthday mention?
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by Chemistry66 on Jun 6, 2011 9:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Shit, I haven’t looked at that document in weeks. Sorry.
Happy Birthday
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s okay, Jeffie. I know you were too busy figuring out where Boosh was.
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
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by Chemistry66 on Jun 6, 2011 9:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thank you for your forgiveness.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Happy Birthday, Chem… Sorry, I didn’t look at it either and failed to double check for Geoff.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Your wonder woman.
Following Dan Carcillo where ever he may go
Giving up isn't an option
by Cillo stache on Jun 6, 2011 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I actually recognized that last word.
Even though the reason I recognized it was from something Lithuanian.
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
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Definition: Bad-assery on skates
Lithuanian is quite similar to Latvian. Not enough so that speakers of either language can understand the other, but a number of words are pretty close.
Sarauj, Latvija!
I don’t make a ton of comments on here, its not that I don’t like to, it really because I am usually in work or on the train. Reading the FlyersFaithful article I can shake the feeling that this isn’t all that different than the Flyers of the late 80’s. Sure you can’t really compare pre cap and cap eras but the Flyers were a team who had success during the mid to late 80’s in a similar way to the current team. The one difference is that the 80’s front office just drafted really really bad between 85-89 (not having a first rounder in 89) but drafting bad is to me, just as bad as trading away picks to win now. Both teams had rosters with key veterans who helped lead the team to 3 Prince of Whales Conf Finals and 2 cup finals that started to break down Kerr and Howe come to mind. So to me its not that crazy to think the this team could be heading to a few years of hard times not unlike the early 90’s because of no real talent in the system to replcae aging vets or now and days terrible cap unfriendly contracts. Sorry if this not very concise typed it on my iPhone suring the train ride.
I cannot wear my Pelle Eklund jersey anymore because of hockeybuzz and its creator Eklund.....
Hey Norm, if you were a hot dog would you eat your self??
Semper Fi...
haha, no worries. I hope it’s not that bad, but I worry it will be.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
But we did have a #1 goalie with Hexy, but those first 5 years in the 90’s were horrible and I guess what makes them worse is really what happend with the Lindros saga and how that ended..
I cannot wear my Pelle Eklund jersey anymore because of hockeybuzz and its creator Eklund.....
Hey Norm, if you were a hot dog would you eat your self??
Semper Fi...
Bob!
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s quite as dire as that (missing the playoffs for 5 straight years) but it doesn’t look great right now. At least we have a good young core of Richards, Carter, Giroux, and JVR (still on a relatively cheap contract but we’ll retain him), Coburn, Carle, and Meszros, something the late 80s teams lacked. We’ll get a better picture of the what the team will be able to do after the new CBA.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference is that three of those 7 need new contracts next summer.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
True, and Meszros doesn’t even exist. The more players we can’t retain due to the salary cap, the more frustrated I get that we didn’t win a Cup when there wasn’t one. Bobby Clarke gets retroactively worse each year.
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
ture this team is deeper but the cap has an impact and its not like you can just add guys to compliment the core of Richards, Carter, Giroux and JVR. Also if the team does something dumb like sign is goalie one of the core may have to go. Or one or tw of the d-men you mentioned won’t be signed. Then to me your introuble because if it takes 2 or 3 years to recover picks then that core is suddenly old and you need to win now thus back in the same spot.
I cannot wear my Pelle Eklund jersey anymore because of hockeybuzz and its creator Eklund.....
Hey Norm, if you were a hot dog would you eat your self??
Semper Fi...
I really don’t think it’s going to be as bad as the ‘89 to ’94. I don’t see the Flyers turning into the Maple Leafs
by mantis toboggan on Jun 6, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it outrageous to say that Atkinson and Ranford are basically 2-3rd round picks—-at worst—- if they were in the draft this year?
Seeing as how Ranford was a ppg player over the final 42 games of the season (42 points in final 42 games), just like he was the year before (65 points in 72 games), when nobody knew his name, I don’t think 44 points in 26 games would sway anybody to bump him from a 7th round pick to a 2nd round pick.
Essentially, the only reason anybody knows Brendan Ranford’s name is because he had a good 26 games in between a mediocre 114 games.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure, but his high point totals (108 points in 67 games) are largely due to 84 assists. His goal totals were the same as last year (24), so either he got a lot better as a playmaker, or his teammates got better.
But he also won “Overage Player of the Year”, so maybe he’s the next Chad Larose. Or maybe he’s the next Martin St. Pierre.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
When do these guys project to a) become age-eligable to play in the AHL b) have until we have to sign them before we Eriksson them (BTW—-someone needs to add that to our Flyers urban dicitonary. Eriksson v. To draft late, show potential, but not sign) and c) pose any threat to crack the NHL roster?
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
A) Not sure, but Rinaldo played in the AHL at age 20. Ranford is 19, Akeson is 21; B) Akeson is already signed, Ranford has until June 1 next year; C) Ranford is at least 2 years away, Akeson is a possibility for 12-13.
Both are long-shots though.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Long shots as far as NHL potential or the dates? Also, I looked up NHL conversions for the CHL leagues but had trouble finding them. Any idea where to find the conversion factors?
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Long shots for NHL potential.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/translations.html
But as Gabe explains:
Only 18- and 19-year-old players were included in the AHL to NHL analysis. Note that the AHL league difficulty (~0.68) is higher for 18- and 19-year-olds than it is for players of all ages. This is because young players tend to improve substantially from one year to the next, while older players have reached their peak level of ability. Young players, as a group, will do much better in their next year in the NHL, which makes the AHL appear better than it actually is.
So Akeson’s will be higher than it should be because he’s much older. Ranford’s would be on the high end of accurate.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re either showing tremendous faith in Bob or we’re morons. Could go either way.
"It's not just linebackers. This is Penn State linebackers, man. We're a certain type. We've gotta be aggressive, relentless, focused. Don't talk. Don't talk at all. We don't showboat or anything. We just play hard and get the job done." -Khairi Fortt
…or its not July 1st yet and we have a major deal in the making
/whoknows???
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Cap Geek has a list of group 6 UFA’s and Syvret is not on it. I remember DGirl’s post saying that Syvret was possibly group 6.
yeah, CapGeek had him as an RFA last year too, but he wasn’t. Not sure why not.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m figuring they just missed him. I’m going to send them an email today.
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Just ran a few calculations… assuming:
Richie 6
Carter 5
Giroux 5
JVR 4
Steeg 4
Nodl 2
Mez/Coby/Carle 4
Other defender 5
Bob/Goalie 3
Cap: 62
We need to sign 12 guys and have 16 million left. Three of those are backups and wont cost the 1.25 per (13th Forward, 7th Defender, 2nd Goalie). Then its two third-pairing guys, 3 more top 9’s and 3 4th liners. I just dont see how we are that handcuffd for the future considering I overestimated every player (Carle is 3.4, Coby 3.2, I gave Steeg 4 not 3, JVR 4, Giroux 5, and Nodl 2). We can find role players to fill in the empty spaces on our depth chart. Our “core” is one of the best in the NHL behind probably the Pens. Giroux, Carter, JVR and Richie will be studs for 10 years. With that kind of firepower up top I just dont see how we can be bad with all 4 of them—-assuming they all progress reasonably.
What? You don’t have Briere, Pronger, Timonen, or Hartnell. What year are you calculating?
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
in 2013-14 Shelley, Timo, and Harts come off of the books.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Young James ($3.750m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m)
2-Way Andreas ($2.000m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / 2nd Liner ($2.000m)
3rd Liner ($2.000m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Eric Wellwood ($1.500m)
Zac Rinaldo ($1.000m) / Darroll Powe ($1.000m) / Tom Sestito ($1.000m)
DEFENSEMEN
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Big Braydon ($4.000m) / Hot Carle ($4.000m)
Kevin Marshall ($1.000m) / Erik Gustafsson ($1.000m)
/ Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.800m)
GOALTENDERS
Bob Bob ($3.000m) / Jokeem Eri-LOLJK ($1.000m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $59,244,156; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $2,755,844
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
As far as $$ are concerned—- that is a legit NHL-level roster in 3 years (assuming the Phantoms progress a little bit) and 2.7 left in cap space is pretty good. Harts takes his last contract at 2 mil a year to be the “third liner” with Briere. The only guys Locked In are Giroux(last year)/Richie/Carter/Prongs/and Mez (last year)/ and briere. Everything else is assumed.
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Just for confirming that you can make a legitimate NHL-caliber team out of what already exists on the roster, plus a few spare parts. Maybe not a Cup favorite, but a competitive team.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Rinaldo and Sestito on the same team? Oh, lordy, lordy, lordy.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jun 6, 2011 12:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Anyone except G/Rich, carts, prongs, mez and briere—-the number is what matters, ot the mane.
by OrangeNblacK on Jun 6, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
So you’re assuming: Wellwood and Nodl are top-9 NHL talent, despite neither one scoring 35 points in the AHL. You’ve essentially put together a two-line team. Rinaldo and Sestito can’t play defense, or kill penalties. Briere will be 35 years old, and he will need to be sheltered in the offensive zone with… two guys who aren’t going to score much.
Your defense is relying on Gustafsson and Marshall, while seeing small raises to your two biggest dmen.
This is a very optimistic team, and one that is really, really shallow.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think he said it was a cup contender, just that it was a legit NHL roster. And presumably he can pick up some other 4th liners for 1M if you don’t like Sestito and Rinaldo for some crazy unfathomable reason.
I think his point was that we’re not looking at a complete 0-82 implosion down the road, just a loss of the depth that made this team great.
I agree the Flyers aren’t looking at an Edmonton Oilers future either.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Its the numbers not the names. You know how much turnover there is in hockey—-three years down the line these names wont matter. Briere’s contract sucks, we all know that.
1. Wellwood/Richards/Nodl would be a formidable shutdown 3rd line next year (11-12). This projection is for 13-14. If Nodl and Wellwood don’t project then you can sub in any name for the combined 3.5 + 2.5 million in space.
Rinaldo and Sestito—- if we pay them a million each that means they’ve showed some ability to play hockey. If not them, I’d be fine with any Betts/Powe type. We can find them for under a mil easily.
Its the numbers, not the names. 2.5 in cap space + maybe a cap increase and there is another big name. All I’m saying is that we are not in horrible shape for the futre.
$7.5 million for half of your top-9. The numbers aren’t the issue, because we have no idea what the cap is in 3 years. The issue is finding inexpensive talent capable of producing.
This year, the Flyers got 125 points (Giroux and Leino) for $1.6 million. Next year, that’ll be $6.7 million. Because the Flyers don’t have a Downie, Giroux, or JVR coming up for at least 3 years, that low-cost production is a problem. It doesn’t mean the Flyers will miss the playoffs, it means the Flyers will have to be finding trash and polishing it up to look capable.
That means Matt Read (undrafted), Mike Testwuide (undrafted), and Eric Wellwood (6th round). That means Ville Leino (dumped for nothing), Blair Betts (training camp invitee), and Tom Sestito (trade more picks).
I’m not saying the Flyers will be the Oilers for 4 years, I’m saying they’re putting all their money into 10-11 and 11-12, and hoping they hit on the Cash 5 lottery for 12-13, 13-14, and 14-15.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I just think that with the cap-era being so young, it is premature to call this strategy poor. If we really do tank—-then yeah, we can look back and say ‘how dumb are we’ but what if (big what if) we hit big on a Matt Read or Testwuide, Ranford, Akenson, Pither, future FA pickup, future Zherdev-like aqusition… then Homer is going to look like a genious for locking up the sure talent for long, good value deals and filling in the holes. It is very hit or miss and only tell.
Absolutely. But that’s a giant “Who knows?”. And I’m not willing to give undrafted, overage players equal weight as first round picks in terms of what’s a better strategy.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Geoff—- I’m disapointed in this line from you:
So you’re assuming: Wellwood and Nodl are top-9 NHL talent, despite neither one scoring 35 points in the AHL.
You have led the Nodl charge, for you to say he’s anything but top-9 is contradictary to everything you’ve ever said about him.
Someone pissed in Geoff’s cornflakes this morning, I think.
Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.
by MaximumTalbot on Jun 6, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a true statement. I included the point totals because I was talking about top-9 point producers. That wasn’t clear, and that’s my fault.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Yay, Vancouver! Sweep, please.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
In semi-related-to-the-SCF news
Peter Cambor, an actor in NCIS:Los Angeles (Dr. Nate Getz, the psychologist), was asking people about the SCF and the NBA playoffs yesterday on Twitter. He then said he thought it would be Vancouver in 5 or 6.
I replied “No Canucks sweep?” And he replied back. YAY! (Allow me the slight fangirl-ing as an birthday present, haha.)
“@ItsAFez66 I’ve got a soft spot for Boston (went to grad school there) so I gotta think they’re gonna pull a game or two outta this…”
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun
Definition: Bad-assery on skates
Nice.
FYI, I am pop-culturally-illiterate, but don’t underplay that factor for the NHL. Heard some current TV star (can’t remember who) on NHL Home Ice a few weeks ago extol the game. But what many of you may not remember is the buzz the NBA got in the 90s from all the music stars and such who followed hoops. I am all for publicizing heavily any pop stars following the game. Note that many film productions are now done in Vancouver, so this may even be more realistic now.
FYI, as I recall from the Home Ice interview apparently Keanu Reeves plays goalie in pick-up hockey. And Cuba Gooding Jr. (!) is a strong defensive forward in these games.
This is my Cerberus .sig, while the regular one is on the DL.
Whaddaya know, I got the reference for Cuba Gooding (from a couple of years ago).
From what it sounds like, he might even be lurking on the Jewels from the Crown!!! Who is Quisp, anyway??!!! :-))))
This is my Cerberus .sig, while the regular one is on the DL.
Who was the Hollywood big-wig who gets all of the people from his movies to come play pick up hockey? Was it Jerry Bruckheimer? They did a segment on Hockey Day in America about it
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Kevin Smith? Dennis Leary?
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yes, them too. But who was in the hockey day in america segment?
by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 6, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
No idea
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 6, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s quite a few of the actors/actresses I’m following that watch hockey. Helps that some of them are Canadian (and actually some FROM Vancouver) and they keep talking about the game. It’s awesome. Celebrities are real people too. Who knew?
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun
Definition: Bad-assery on skates
Well, some of them are—the ones that aren’t entirely made of silicon, that is. :-)
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Prospects? We don’t need no stinkin’ Prospects!
Will I ever get to where I'm going?
If I do, will I know when I am there?
FTFY (well, pretty much)
Prospects? We don’t needhave no stinkin’ Prospects!
I'm the Pronger. DUH, WINNING.
Chem and Gus to the restaurant.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun
Definition: Bad-assery on skates
Grr. I had a lot to say today, but commenting wasn’t working at all for me earlier, neither was the z key. The one thing I remember was that I step away from the computer for the weekend and come back to 4 less prospects. That’s pretty awful. As has been said many times, trading draft picks or prospects is one thing, but just outright losing four of them for nothing is completely incomprehensible.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
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