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Grading the 2011 Philadelphia Flyers: Matt Carle

We continue our annual, player-by-player look at the 2010-11 Philadelphia Flyers. In no particular order, we'll analyze one player per day (or so) over the next few weeks. Up today, a member of the trade rumor mill, defenseman Matt Carle.

Matt Carle

#25 / Defenseman / Philadelphia Flyers

6-0

205

Sep 25, 1984

10/11 Salary: $3.5 million

11/12 Salary: $3.8 million

11/12 Cap Hit: $3,437,500

Partner: Chris Pronger (44.13%)

Depth Chart Ranking: No. 3 D

Basic Stats GP G A P +/- PIM SOG PPA BkS PPTOI TOI/G TkA
2010-11 82 1 39 40 30 23 117 2 157 2:18 21:59 33
Adv. Stats (key) TOI/60 CorsiRelQoC CorsiRelQoT Pts/60 GF/60 GA/60 OZ% Fen% Corsi% CorsiRel Sh% Sv%
2010-11 17.57 (1)
0.585 (4)
0.827 (4)
1.37 (1)
3.50 (1)
2.33 (4)
47.8 (5)
52.3 (1)
51.1 (1)
6.0 (1)
10.14 (2)
0.922 (4)

Star-divide

Expectations: While nobody would mistake Matt Carle for the #2 defenseman on the team, he was expected to face first and second line competition due to playing alongside Chris Pronger. From there, expectations would be that Carle outscore top competition while getting average zone starts, playing on - and contributing to - the power play, while chipping in some points. In other words, Carle was expected to be a two-way defenseman with an emphasis on offense (contrast with Coburn's two-way game, with an emphasis on defense).

***

There's a lot of disdain around for Matt Carle, and just about all of it circles around the perception that he's nothing without Chris Pronger. In his first full season in Philadelphia, he was paired with Pronger, and the two quite simply had a phenomenal year. Let's look back on what we said about Carle in his grade last year:

It really is amazing what Chris Pronger can do.  Yes, this will be Matt Carle's season review, but since you can't look at his season without mentioning - maybe even crediting - Pronger, let's just get it out of the way.  Pronger helped Carle go from an above average defenseman into a stud.

The two are attached at the hip, and the general consensus is that without Pronger, Carle is useless. The playoffs went a long way towards proving that. We haven't quite finished our goal-by-goal analysis of defensive breakdowns in the 2011 postseason, but we do know that Carle was personally at fault for a lot of them. 

He looked lost, and a lot of folks will jump to the conclusion that it's because he's without Pronger. I even jumped to that conclusion at times, too. But a quick glance at Carle's numbers with Pronger and without Pronger (thanks, Eric T.) show that he was actually a slightly better player without Pronger during the regular season.

2010-11 Matt Carle Corsi% Goals For Goals Against Fen% Shot% OZ%
with Pronger 50.4% 32 24 44.5% 53.7% 50.5%
without Pronger 50.9% 50 33 51.6% 53.2% 44.7%

There's an uptick in all the offensive stats for Carle when Pronger leaves -- basically, Carle helped push the play up the ice more often without Pronger. It's a relatively small difference of just .5 percent - and is offset by a .5 percent decline on shots on goal, but what it does help to prove is that Carle isn't any worse without Pronger by his side, like so many of us (including myself) wanted to believe. And it all comes while Carle is starting in the offensive zone substantially less often.

When it comes to what we've grown to expect out of Carle, the 2009-10 season put some lofty goals in our heads. He's a two-way defenseman that chips in offensively, and while he only scored one goal on the year -- goals scored by Flyers defenseman were down across the board this season, from 32 to 22 -- he increased his point total from 35 to 40. Offensively, Carle's game was improved from last year.

Defensively, Carle saw his opponents shift from first and second line competition down to second and third line, mostly because Braydon Coburn and Kimmo Timonen stepped up in Pronger's absence. Yes, Coburn and Timonen stepped up to fill the void. Carle still did a great job of preventing shots from reaching his goaltender, while seeing an average number go in. He's not the best defenseman on the team in his own zone, but he absolutely holds his own.

Grading criteria: We assign grades on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being the best. We base our grades on expectations, execution on those expectations and a player's overall potential. A 10 means that the player had a fantastic, expectation-surpassing season. A 1 means that he was horrible and needs to go. Like, yesterday.

The Grade: Travis wrote most of this, then had to go. So he told us to "put a bow on it", but neglected to put a grade on it first. So what does that mean? A lack of parallelism in Travis' grades. Carle gets a 7, not because he exceeded expectations as much as Carter, but because two different people assigned the two grades. Maybe Travis puts his grade in the comments, or maybe he just changes this. Who knows.

While Carle didn't have a great year offensively, he did lead all defensemen in ES points by a large margin. The team could have used some of that on the power play, but he still produced offensively better than any other blueliner. He provided top-4 defense as expected, and he even performed as well, if not better, once Pronger went out with injury. Carle is continuously dismissed as a lightweight, but he also showed that he's an extremely underrated defenseman this year.

So how did Carle perform relative to your expectations?

Poll
How would you grade Matt Carle's 2010-11 season?
10
3 votes
9
21 votes
8
70 votes
7
81 votes
6
70 votes
5
39 votes
4
9 votes
3
6 votes
2
2 votes
1
8 votes

309 votes | Poll has closed

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I still wouldnt shed a tear if he was traded =P

Gus Supporter.

by sa cyred on Jun 8, 2011 6:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Good god, I would. Especially with Pronger and Kimmo each growing older, I don’t want our young defensemen going anywhere.

"We didn't do it the easy way. We took the hard way to do it. But we are part of history now."

by ww2b on Jun 8, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah seriously. Being as good as he is naturally PLUS being mentored by Pronger? He’s only getting better.

"All we want is to be treated like human beings, not to be experimented on like guinea pigs or patronized like bunny rabbits. "
"I don't patronize bunny rabbits."

by Mike B on D on Jun 8, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neither would I, but I’d probably be pissed off.

What can't Giroux do?

by tmurder on Jun 8, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

gotta squeeze this one out because he might get traded

that’d be a shame

do you poop on parties professionally, or do you just do it as a hobby?

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 8, 2011 7:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Nah, we squeezed it out to show that those advocating for him to be traded are severely selling him short.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Geoff, Just curious if Mez and Carle switched roles and Carle was technically the #5 would you be okay with trading him then as the “overpaid 5th defensmen”.

by chrislanci on Jun 8, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Am I okay with trading Meszaros now? No.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shouldn’t you still be careful of who you write about at certain times? You had a run there where the guy got traded within 24 hours of the grade being posted

Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.

by DragonGirl0583 on Jun 8, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s a reason I told Travis to do it. haha, then he had to leave before he finished.

/TWSS

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

someone must be sacrificed to the God of Overpaid Goalies

do you poop on parties professionally, or do you just do it as a hobby?

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 8, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

And I vote for the guy who can’t skate.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

that contract was a mistake

i have a feeling ill be saying that a lot over the next couple of yrs with the Flyers

do you poop on parties professionally, or do you just do it as a hobby?

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 9, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah. Like Randy Jones’ contract.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

mike rathje

do you poop on parties professionally, or do you just do it as a hobby?

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 9, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Derian Hatcher.

The man whom Autocomplete wants to call Defiant Catchers…

Bob.

by The Dark on Jun 9, 2011 12:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I vote for the Overpriced Goalie being sacrificed.

by Snevik on Jun 8, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

From the guy who wants to trade him I think Carle deserves an 8.

by chrislanci on Jun 8, 2011 7:59 PM EDT reply actions  

the guy?

I think half the commenters want him gone. Maybe more. And I think most don’t even care what we get in return.

by Eric T. on Jun 8, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

a guy…..

I want high level prospect in return not a draft pick but some high level prospect that is closer to NHL ready. 7.5C rating or better on Hockey Futures, preferably a forward.

by chrislanci on Jun 8, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t want him to be, but I think he will and be an unfortunate cap-hit casualty.

Will I ever get to where I'm going?
If I do, will I know when I am there?

by jello44 on Jun 8, 2011 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just lightly browsed a few more “popular” sites and it looks like a majority of people think Carle is a total bum.

What can't Giroux do?

by tmurder on Jun 8, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

The majority of people are ignorant assholes, too. Just sayin’.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Jun 8, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, obviously, they are Philadelphian’s after all.

What can't Giroux do?

by tmurder on Jun 8, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

They don’t just live here, unfortunately.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Jun 8, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really wanted to dismiss Carle as a slightly above average D-man with forward aspirations (not unlike my opinion for Mike Green).

But looking at the hard numbers has put me in the uncomfortable position of realizing he’s better than I thought he was. Yes, he makes inopportune turnovers and sometimes got flat-out beat. But he’s not unique in this. Yes his playoff performances as a whole were not good. Also, he was not unique in this.

For whatever reason I wasn’t seeing the good outweighing the bad. I gave him a 7, because looking at his numbers he did pretty well outperforming my expectations.

I hope we can hold onto him, and Coburn, and Mesz. And we’ll need them to be their best in the very near future.

by A Flyers Phamily on Jun 8, 2011 9:53 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

You honestly have no idea how happy this makes me.

And it’s not even that you agree with me. It’s that you kept an open mind and were willing to change your opinion at all.

Plus-1 for you.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was in the same position as you. After the playoffs, I wanted to blame Carle for the damn recession. But he doesn’t deserve it.

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Got goaltending? Searching since 1987.

by Travis Hughes on Jun 8, 2011 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean, he did stand out as terrible in a team that was atrocious… it’s completely understandable why anybody had that reaction.

But I wish we saw more of that Defensive Breakdowns series. That was a good way of assigning blame.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 8, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know, I picked up where Eric left off but I haven’t had a chance to finish it. Hopefully when the Finals are over I’ll have the time.

Visit the BSH Store :: Get us on Twitter :: facebook, too!
Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Got goaltending? Searching since 1987.

by Travis Hughes on Jun 8, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing about Carle though is that he typically had the most scoring chances (I know I’m a data hog) for of any defenseman, while allowing a lot of scoring chances against, at least in the playoffs.

You might consider that he was more likely to be directly responsible for the chances against than the chances for, but if he’s replaced with a defenseman who provides an equal number of chances for/against, the team doesn’t benefit.

Mourning Gagne forever.

by ToddtheFox on Jun 8, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I noticed that he was a scoring chance machine. I’d love to see those numbers over the full season, because something tells me him being a equal chance defender in the playoffs was a good thing.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2011 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stop saying "Trade Carle"

Trading him gets us a little cap room back. It’s 3.4 against the cap according to HockeyGM.

Carle is worth that much. When he’s up for resigning, I’d pay him closer to 4 million at that.

Who on defense would I get rid of? For the sake of cap space, it’d be Timo. Not because I don’t like Timo, but because he’s the biggest cap hog on this team, with a contract that shouldn’t happen in hockey until the cap expands. Only Briere is paid more (ugh). He’s a big 6.3 against the cap, and would be replaced by someone probably making under a million. That’s REAL cap room.

In the process, you don’t lose a young defenseman who will be able to play at a high level for a long time AND you get enough money back to actually improve the team in other areas (as obviously it’d hurt the defense.)

But since we are, apparently, useless on defense without Pronger – what’s it matter? I say dangle that NTC away and trade him.

It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.

by Dr. Steve on Jun 8, 2011 11:29 PM EDT reply actions  

The problem is that you’re replacing Kimmo—one of the twenty best defensemen in the league, still—with Gustavsson, who has proven exactly dick.

I get the process, but I think the idea is to lose nothing on the back end, or at least make a move that can be defended as parallel and saving costs. Losing Kimmo more than offsets the impact of whatever goalie you want to get in this league.

by Snevik on Jun 8, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kimmo is going nowhere.

This is my Cerberus .sig, while the regular one is on the DL.

by Bud in TN on Jun 9, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Partly because he’s good, partly because he’s aging, and partly because he’s expensive. Its not terrible to consider moving him, however, it’s unlikely that a beneficial deal could be struck.

What can't Giroux do?

by tmurder on Jun 9, 2011 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

If it wasn’t for that playoff performance, Carle easily scores an 8 from most people. His regular season performance when Pronger was out actually looked BETTER – I was mildly disappointed when Carle’s security planket showed back up in the playoffs, because he wasn’t playing like he could … he was playing like he wanted Prongs to cover his ass. NOt good for the guy, if we consider him a still-developing talent.

Maybe it should read "reformedpenguinsfan" since I have retired my Lemeiux jersey ... and purchased an Orange and Black Pronger jersey.

by MaximumTalbot on Jun 9, 2011 1:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Would have been an 8.5, playoffs make it a 7.5…I’m rounding down because Boston won last night and I’m in a crappy mood.

Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!

by DLJr on Jun 9, 2011 8:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Are 10 options not good enough for you? You need 20 grading options?

Hipster.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, I just wanted to emphasize that I’m in a bad mood (even more so now that people keep referencing the GWG in last year’s finals), and I really could give him a 7 or 8.

Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!

by DLJr on Jun 9, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

So I’ll be nice today.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m just more so frustrated by the SCF series. I was screaming at the TV. The only positive is the whole stud goalie argument for the cup now has a hole in it…but then I’m sure those people will just say Lu isn’t clutch…and then I spiral in to a fury again.

Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!

by DLJr on Jun 9, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hear ya. But it doesn’t matter who wins, the “stud goalie” argument will be alive and well. Ignoring the fact that both teams are built really deep in all three areas.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jun 9, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll believe it when I see it.

by Eric T. on Jun 9, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  


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