Signing Ilya Bryzgalov: A Numerical Analysis
by RoadRaider3 on Jun 8, 2011 3:40 PM EDT
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PrintLast night the Flyers traded for the rights to negotiate with goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, and at risk of losing yet another pick for absolutely nothing, GM Paul Holmgren needs to find a way to get this man signed, now theres no doubt that we will need to trade somebody, but here and now I can see the Flyers fielding a team next year that still has the core in place, lets start with a worst case scenario, my thanks to capgeek.com for the cool cap calculator they have.
Worst Case Scenario: Bryzgalov wants 6 million, cap only goes up to minimum 60.5 million
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Ben Holmstrom ($0.750m) / Michael Testwuide ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) / Ilya Bryzgalov ($6.000m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,709,432; BONUSES: $2,085,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): -$1,209,432
this would not be a good situation for the Flyers, we knew we couldn't go on with this expensive defense for much longer so Matt Carle has to go either way, hes the defenseman most feasibly traded, in this worst case to get Bryzgalov signed we would have to trade Versteeg or Hartnell along with Carle, I say one of those two because it would maximize cap dump and not lose too much goal scoring, if we trade Hartnell we might be able to fit in a new forward, like if we want to risk Simon Gagne (rumored to possibly return). or we could always try and talk Bryz down to 4.8 million and just barely squeak under the cap, but that would not be a good situation.
Best Case Cap Scenario: Cap goes up to max 63.5 million,
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($1.000m)
Darroll Powe ($0.950m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) / Ilya Bryzgalov ($6.000m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $63,500,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,009,432; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $1,490,568
an optimal situation for the Flyers as simply letting Carcillo walk (good riddens) sending Jody Shelly to the minors (no ones gonna claim him) and trading just one piece of our very expensive defense corps gives us almost 1.5 in cap space, plenty to work with for the upcoming season.
in short these are just a couple situations where we could field a very good team while still paying Bryzgalov big bucks, now we're not likely to give him his wanted 6 million and the cap will likely be in the middle of those two numbers so going by the numbers we could make this work and field a cup contending team next season.
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I am asking out of curiosity, not suggesting in any way so please do not jump all over me, but is it at all possible that Bob gets traded and we resign Boushe as our backup?
I heard that you can expect Breezy to play 65-75 games (I think Seravelli said this on DNL), if that is the case, can Bob really grow and develop into our future Goalie if he is getting 10-20 games with the big club?
(I am assuming that he wouldn’t clear waivers, again I think Seravelli said this on DNL today).
Love to hear what everyone thinks. Thanks, Reddgie
That’s a bit of an exaggeration on Bryzgalov’s workload — he started 67, 69, and 63 the last three years.
What we do with Bob is indeed a key concern right now. If the plan is to start Bryzgalov 65 times a year for the next 3-5 years, then Bob probably ought to be traded — he has a lot more value to a team that has more than 17 starts for him, so we ought to capture that value (not to mention save >500k by signing a cheaper backup).
Of course, I hate that plan. But that’s a separate point.
re: projected workload, I thought the same thing, I was just quoting Frank from DNL.
I am assuming that this (trading for Breezy) is ultimately going to be the 1st in a series of moves, with the end result being part salary cap relief/part youth movement. If that is the case, then I would think that we would easily be able to move Bob and get back some decent value, maybe try to replace 1 or 2 of those draft picks that we have traded away. Does that make sense?
Yeah, I think that’s a reasonable outcome of this first move. But a plan that starts with signing a 31-year-old goalie to replace a 23-year-old goalie and ends with a youth movement and draft picks doesn’t seem like a cohesive plan.
In other words, I agree that that’s probably where it should go from here. But I doubt “youth movement” is going to be any part of what we see — I’m guessing the team gets older and more built for this year.
And that sucks, because instead of being positioned to have Richards-Carter-Giroux-JVR-Coburn-Carle lead a very strong team for five strong years, we’re positioned to have a cave-in next year when we can’t afford to keep Coburn or Carle and Pronger (38) and Timonen (37) can’t carry a defense and we haven’t picked in the first round in four years.
I’ve looked more closely and it’s not as dire as I feared, but assuming we sign Nodl and Powe to multi-year deals this year, we’re looking at something like this for ’12-13:
Carter (5.3M)-Giroux (3.75M)-JVR (3.75M)
Hartnell (4.2M)-Briere (6.5M)-Read (0.9M)
Nodl (1M)-Richards (5.75M)-TBD1
Powe (0.85M)-TBD2-Shelley (1.1M)
Wellwood (0.58M)
Timonen (6.3M)-Meszaros (4M)
Pronger (4.9M)-TBD3
Bartulis (0.6M)-Gustafsson (0.9M)
TBD4
Bryzgalov (5.5M)
Bobrovsky (1.75M)
There’s CBA uncertainty, but let’s pretend the cap goes up 3M this year and 3M next year, so we have 65.4M to play with. If we pay the 3rd line winger 2M and the 4th line center and 7th defenseman 1M each, we have 3.8M left for the top-4 defense spot, which I doubt will be enough to sign Coburn or Carle. I think we’re looking at a 3M UFA at that point.
Which looks OK right now, but if you think about Pronger being 38 and Timonen being 37, that defense starts to look shockingly weak. And unless Read turns out to be darn good, the 36-year-old Briere probably isn’t leading an elite second line.
If Briere chooses to retire and walk away from a 7M salary, or to waive his NMC for some reason, then maybe it’s OK. If Timonen and Pronger still somehow perform at an elite level as they approach 40, it’s probably fine. But those aren’t things I’d want to be betting on right now.
if we trade Bob, and god I hope we don’t, we haven’t had a great young goaltender since Hextall, one can only hope we don’t sign Bryzgalov to the 5 year 30 mil contract he wants, maybe 5 mil for 2-3 years, but I don’t see that happening, anyway back to my point if we trade Bob I don’t believe we will sign Boosh, I think hes done in Philly, maybe another cheap goaltender to back him up, I think that Bryz will likely start about 60 games, get Bob some time or maybe a Luongo-Schneider type schedule, where Bob relieves Bryz for about 20-25 games and both goalies and the team benefits. If we trade Bob I do weep for the future of the Flyers because we will have let go of a good one, and they’re not the easiest thing to find, but hopefully it all works out.
Having a great young goaltender is ideal, but more importantly is just having a great goaltender.
I am having trouble seeing how Bob can benefit from being in 55 games (I am guessing on the number, but I am sure it is pretty close) this year and then being in possibly less than half of that next year, and the year after, and the year after that, etc… If Breezy was a 1 or 2 year rental, then maybe Bob could learn from him while being the backup and come out on the other end an improved goaltender. But all signs are pointing to Breezy wanting a LT deal, my guess would be at least 5 years.
I don’t see how having Breezy for the LT meshes with Bob staying a Flyer. I would love for someone who is more in touch with the situation to show me how.
well sometimes you gotta look at a situation like pittsburgh, they had a great young goaltender and after about a year he became a great goaltender, for all intents and purposes im hearing that holmgren wants to have both, as hes said well have the best goaltending tandem if we get bryz signed.
and yes I feel the same way, I don’t see Breezy getting a LT deal and Bob staying a Flyer, if we do keep him around he’ll be gone as soon as the contracts up and will be a star in NJ or something, which by the way would be a great place to trade him if we choose to, overall it’s a sticky situation, I’m hearing some crazy things about what Bryz wants, some say that he wants 4-5 years, some say just 4, but all say he wants north of 6 mil, some say he wants King Henrik money, some say he wants to be the top paid goaltender, we’ll see how this plays out but this is gonna be a tough signing, a tough signing indeed….
I am really, really, REALLY hoping that Homer has already had some discussions with other teams as to who he can move and what he can expect in return and made this deal with a plan in place.
To make this deal without having some sort of tangible way of fitting him into the cap and doing so without affecting the core of this team would be a mistake of epic proportions.
Also, and again I am asking out of curiosity, was Breezy going to be that widely pursued once FA started that we needed to make the deal to get the chance to sign him before a bidding war started?
the main guys that holmgrens been talking about are Carle and Versteeg, just adding more fuel to the fire about how bad the Versteeg trade was, freakin terrible, so most likely Carle and Versteeg are gone and Car Bomb not resigned, thats what I’m hearing
Versteeg can go pound sand for all I care. Useless asshat, and keep the damned mouth piece in your mouth you freakin poser!!!!
Sorry, I didn’t mean to yell, I get a little excited at times.
/deep breath
Carle is a little more worrisome, as I thought he played very well as the presumed #1 D man while Prongs was hurt and is a guy that can contribute offensively, especially on the PP, which is an added bonus (like finding an onion ring in your Burger King french fries).
I am hoping that they can find a way to sign Breezy and keep Carle.
One thing to remember is that teams normally field a roster of 22 or 23 players, so you’d need to add a couple more players who can be healthy scratches.
Cap Geek is great, isn’t it? You get a much better feel for how precious a couple hundred thousand dollars can be when you’re trying to figure out what you can piece together.
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