The Butterfly Effect: How tiny decisions shape the face of the Flyers

hahaha. My tone is often not my attitude. Especially on the internet.

Vokoun has NHL playoff experience. And international experience. He didn’t carry FLA last year, but he sure did carry the Czech Republic to gold.

(need an edit button)

I think his Nashville days had him in a similar situation as Bryz had in Phoenix (with similar first round exits) but I think his best years are behind him and that had something to do with why he wasn’t as sought after in free agency. He’s going into a similar situation where he shouldn’t have to do as much heavy lifting in Washington but it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

I still stand by Detroit being a team that will put an incredible amount of offensive pressure against a team that already gives up more shots per game a no win situation for the Yotes. I don’t see how that’s “opinion” either because:

Detroit had the second best shots on goal at 33.6 per game. Phoenix has the third worst shots against allowing 32.6 per game. How is this opinion?

Good point.

Behind the Net (Now Arctic Hockey) FAQ
Another link from BtN
An Objective NHL post on Corsi with the score close, adjusting for schedule difficulty, showing both the Coyotes and Flyers in the top-5.

on point #2 I should have started with “My logic here is faulted” I did not specify that the argument on a whole of just examing scoring is a faulted argument.

Bryzgalov has 3 playoff series as a starter, Vokoun has 2.

1) No, games played isn’t the best way to frame my counter argument. But if I went with the starter argument Fehr went with, that would have discounted his SC year, which is obviously a major selling point. I didn’t want to divert the argument that way, and I didn’t want to frame my point to ignore his time in Anaheim, since… that’s mostly your point.

But again, like Fehr said, you’re giving Bryz credit for being a backup goalie on a Cup winning team. How much of that is the Ducks, and how much is that Bryz? I really don’t want to get into that, hence the “If that’s much more, okay. I disagree, but okay.”

2) Okay, going to have to break this down. You said “Phoenix doesn’t exactly score a ton of goals”. Of course, this is all relative, but when you follow it up with “so Bryz had to be more perfect than most just for them to survive”, I’m going to compare it to Vokoun and the Panthers.

If you want to compare Bryzgalov to other playoff teams, by all means. But I’m going to stick with the Bryz v. Vokoun argument, which is where this all started. Phoenix scores a ton of goals compared to Vokoun, so Vokoun had to be damn near perfect compared to most just for the Panthers to win 10 games this year. Crediting Bryzgalov for his team’s weaknesses while ignoring that Vokoun’s team was so, so, so very worse is aggravating to me.

You call it disingenuous of the Coyotes scoring ability, but you’re taking their 14th out of 30 ranking and saying “most” applies to only half the league.

If we were discussing Bryzgalov v. leage average, it would be different. But in the Bryzgalov v. Vokoun debate, how team factors come into play at all in favor of Bryzgalov is baffling to me. And how you can pay for a better chance at playoff runs on two goalies who have nearly identical numbers for their careers, is beyond me.

That should read “the 7 goaltenders who faced the most shots” but I’m sure you got my drift.

You can say they called him the MVP, but they just paid Yandle and let Bryz walk. The AAV difference was less than a half million, though the total dollar value may have been a concern for that franchise.

I’m not saying Corsi Tied it’s a complete representation, I’m using it to dispute the complete representation you’re offering of shots against per game. I’ve said as much in the paragraph you quoted.

And again, Fehr comes through with the “Phoenix let Bryz walk for less than half a million more than they locked up Yandle for. How about that for MVP?” statement.

Also glad you bring up the top-7 goaltenders in _.

If you look at the top-6 highest paid goaltenders, none of them made it out of the first round either. It’s a pretty telling number. Lundqvist, Ward, Miller, Backstrom, Kiprusoff, Huet… None of their teams were able to ice a competitive team that could win as many games as Bobrovsky/Boucher/Leighton did.

Also, the 19 most recent goalies signed average $1.8 mil. Only 4 got more than $2.25 mil, and only 1 more than $3.8 mil. Guess who?

Those are even more telling numbers, to me.

Geoff is a big fan of normalizing goalie save variances by listing things in terms of 5 on 5 hockey. So the stats he listed would eliminate PK%, etc.

This is the last comment I’m replying to in my rapid fire response, so let me start out by saying: Thank you for engaging in the discussion, avoiding the feeling of being attacked, and coming back with evidence to support your theories. I’m frequently told I scare people away, but if they all responded like you, I would be so much happier. haha

Yes, it doesn’t hold true this past season. Bryzgalov had a career year last year, while LaBarbera… didn’t.

But in 2009-10:

Bryzgalov: 0.928 ESS%, 0.920 Sv%
LaBarbera: 0.932 ESS%, 0.928 Sv%

In 08-09:

Bryzgalov: 0.918 ESS%, 0.906 Sv%
Tellqvist: 0.926 ESS%, 0.912 Sv%

The obvious response is “his backups didn’t play much, thus their numbers came in a small sample”. Yes. It isn’t demonstrative, and I’m not saying LaBarbera is as good as Bryzgalov. But Bryzgalov’s backups, over the last three years, stopped the same percentage of shots as Bryzgalov.

That’s telling, even if you don’t want to take that step – as I don’t either – into saying LaBarbera is as good as Bryzgalov. But at the very least, Phoenix’s backup goalies did not put them in a worse position to win each and every night simply because Bryzgalov was on the bench. Maybe the coaching changed, maybe the players minds started going haywire, maybe it was luck, maybe a lot of things.

But over the last three years, Bryzgalov stopped a lower percentage of shots than Jason LaBarbera and Mikael Tellqvist did playing behind the same team.

But again, you’re crediting Bryzgalov for playing on a Stanley Cup winner and punishing Vokoun for playing on non-playoff teams.

It’s like saying CC Sabathia wasn’t as good an option for the Brewers in 2008 as Derek Lowe would have been, because Lowe won a World Series with the Red Sox in 2004.

Derek Lowe is playoff tested and the last time Sabathia even played a playoff game before going to the Brewers … It ignores far too much just to give “playoff tested” weight it doesn’t deserve.

Rosty Olesz? Ladislav Smid? Keenan McArdle? Gilbert Brule? James Sheppard? Cam Barker?

These are guys you compare to Briere and Richards?

Seems ironic doesn’t it? We could have paid back then like we are so willing to now and things might have been different. Also, no salary cap!

Sorry, due to the Gagne trade last year I think most of us think that the Flyers would do exactly that without a NMC.

If you’re looking to buy a house and you see one you like that’s been on the market for six months, you make an offer that’s way below the asking price because they’re probably desperate. You don’t know for sure that they’re desperate, but you assume it is, especially if their realtor is giving hints that they’re motivated sellers. If they turn you down, you move on and buy another house.

The other GMs don’t have to know for sure exactly how far over the cap the Flyers are. They know the Flyers are already at the cap and have traded for Bryzgalov’s rights and made public comments about fixing the goalie situation. They know what Bryzgalov’s contract situation is. When the Flyers call and say “what would you give us for Scott Hartnell”, they will make a lowball offer, and if they don’t get him, they will move on and find another Hartnell.

Richards and Carter are less prone to the lowball offer because the other GM knows he won’t easily find another Richards or Carter somewhere else.