FanPost

Why Jagr may not be such of an overpayment, and why Talbot is


I'll get right into it.

 

I am firstly comparing Jaromir Jagr's contract to Nikolay Zherdev. Both were one year deals for enigmas coming out of the KHL that have had a history of locker room issues and strange fears of the defensive zone. Both also had their last NHL contracts with the New York Rangers. When it comes to a one year contract the idea is you're on a tryout, so age and future potential isn't really a major consideration.

Zherdev got 2 million. Jagr got 3.3 million.

If you consider the cap went from 59.4 million to 64.3 million; that's an increase in 8%. If you apply the same increase to Zherdev's 2 million, you get to 2.16 million. Then there's the fact that Jagr still is a better player by his KHL numbers. We'll just be really crude here and look at points. Jagr's last KHL season he scored 50 points in 49 games at 1.02 points/game. In Zherdev's last KHL season before he came to us he scored 39 points in 52 games at 0.75 points/game. Now I know this isn't how contracts work, but we often see analyses on this website of how a player performed in a certain stat per $ so along that line of thinking I'll point out that the ratio there is 1.36 on points/game. Apply that to the 2.16 million and you get up to 2.95 million. Consider the remaining 0.35 million that Jagr got a combination of him being one of the leading offensive players in the history of the NHL and the apparent need to annoy Pittsburgh and break their fans' hearts. I'd say Jagr at 3.3 million and Zherdev at 2 million aren't that different; and Zherdev at 2 million would have been a bargain if Lavvy had played him.

Of course while Jagr's contract may be acceptable, the fact that he is a Flyer is still something I don't quite have my head around. I imagine I won't be able to fully work out how I'll feel until I see him actually wearing orange.

 

Now to Maxime Talbot. 1.8 million per year for 5 years is what this man received. Over his past 5 NHL seasons he has played 340 games and scored 100 points. That would mean that in an 82 game season just by basic math he would be projected to score 24 points. Looking at his season-by-season stats that seems about accurate. For a comparison, Ian Laperriere in his final 5 NHL seasons (that's kinda sad) played 389 games for 132 points, projecting 28 points/82 games. Lappy was wonderful for our fourth line. What I'm trying to say is, Talbot's good for our fourth line, but I would like some decent offense coming out of our third line even if that line is primarily a shutdown line to put out there against Crosby and Ovechkin. Talbot's not providing that offense. And even as far as a shutdown defensive minded center role is concerned, Talbot was 7th on the Pens in terms of Quality of Competition based on Corsi Rel QoC and started in the offensive zone 54% of the time. I don't think relying on him to be our main defensive minded forward while the likes of Briere and Jagr are enjoying the offense on the other lines is prudent.

Talbot on the Flyers should be a fourth liner. And 5 years 9 million is not appropriate for a fourth liner in my opinion. But hey, it was a crazy crazy day.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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