FanPost

Carle and Coburn's Next Contract

 

With all of the changes that have affected our roster over the past few months most people have forgotten how stable our defense has been over the past four years. In the Eastern Conference Finals loss to Pittsburgh both Brayden Coburn and Kimmo Timonen were on the roster (and hurt for the majority of that series…). Early the following year we traded for Matt Carle and after that season we acquired Chris Pronger. The four of them are now going into their third year together making up the top-4 with Andrej Meszaros playing the role of the fifth man in the top four for the second year in a row. I have grown to be very comfortable with these guys back there and I have no issue with that big-5 staying in tact until Kimmo retires. With that said, both Brayden Coburn and Matt Carle are in the least year of their contracts and due for possible raises. With JVR and Jake Voracek also receiving potential raises next year, money will be tight once again this offseason. Let’s take a realistic look at what kind of figures Coburn and Carle can expect based off of their play last year.

When I correctly predicted Ville Leino’s contract (or at least ball parked it) it was pointed out to me that I used some faulty logic. I looked up guys with similar numbers, averaged their contracts and there you have it. The average contract of those guys who matched up was 4.77, and if I included RFA’s the average goes down to 4.3. Ironically Ville got 4.5, but I’m going to try to strengthen my logic when I do the same predictions for Coburn and Carle. Because both defenders should fall in the 3-5 million range I found every UFA aged 26-32 who signed a deal worth roughly 3-5 over the past two years.

Player Age Last Yr New Yrs New Salary
Wiznewsky 26 3.24 6 5.5
Bieksa 29 3.75 5 4.6
Hamhuis 27 2.5 6 4.5
Daley 26 2.3 6 3.3
Martin 29 4.5 5 5
Morris 31 3.3 4 3.75
Tallinder 31 3.25 4 3.375
Leopold 29 1.75 3 3
Pitkanen 28 4 3 4.5
Volchenkov 28 3.2 6 4.25
Kaberle 32 4.25 3 4.25
Eirhoff 27 3.1 10 4
Brewer 31 4.2 4 3.85
Eriksson 26 0.9 3 3.25
Green 27 0.738 4 3
White 26 3 2 2.85

One by one I then compared each signee to both Carle and Coburn to see if any numbers matched up, and sure enough, they did.

 

Player TOI/60 Rk ZS% Rk CRelQoC CRelQoT G/60 A1/60 P/60 G+A1/60 Corsi On Rk Corsi Rel Rk TOI/G Rk G/60 A1/60 P/60 G+A1/60 TOI/60 Rk
Carle 17.57 1 47.8 5 2 2 0.04 0.67 1.37 0.71 1.83 2 6 1 2.29 4 0 0.32 0.96 0.32 1.23 6
Bieksa 17.41 3 46.1 5 1 2 0.26 0.21 0.99 0.47 6.37 4 3.3 4 1.71 3 0.53 0.53 1.6 1.06 2.56 2
Hamhuis 17.48 3 46.4 4 2 2 0.22 0.18 1.01 0.4 5.9 4 2.7 4 0 6 0 0 0 0 2.46 1

The two guys with the best comparisons to Carle are Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa. Hamhuis signed his UFA deal with Vancouver after being traded from Nashville to Philly to Pittsburgh and eventually signing in Vancouver for 4.5 million for 6 years in the summer of 2010. Kevin Bieksa was just signed this past summer by Vancouver for 4.6 million for 5 years. When comparing players the most important thing to match up is usage. Each of these three defenders were top-3 in minutes on their respective teams (Hamhuis’ numbers are from 2009-10 because he signed his contract that following offseason) at right around 17.5 minutes per 60. They all started in the offensive zone from 46.1-47.8% of the time good for 4th or 5th on their respective teams. In addition to the similar zone starts and TOI/60, all three played with second line players with second line competition except for Bieksa who went against top competition. Now that we know these guys are used in nearly identical situations, we look at how they performed. Each guy had a positive Corsi with Carle’s 1.83 being behind the other two’s 6.37 and 5.9 but when you look at CorsiRel (takes more factors into account other than just the raw shot totals making it a more effective grading tool) you see that Carle’s 6 doubles the other two who are sitting around 3. Offensivly, no one was better than Matt Carle this year while on even strength. He lead all defenders in ES points this season which is pretty shocking considering he’s widely considered our fifth best defender (obviously that is not true, but it does seem to be a general consensus OUTSIDE of BSH). When analyzing offense, instead of goals and assists, we use G/60 and A1/60 to keep relativity in mind. When you combine G/60 and A1/60 (this formula excludes A2/60 which is a stat that relies on luck more than anything) you get a very good idea of how good Matt Carle is with a rate of .71 compared to Bieksa’s .47 and Hamhuis’ .4. As far as special teams go, Carle got the most PP time of the 3 with 2.29 per game and didn’t put up good numbers (.32 G+A1/60---less than half of his ESG+A1/60). Hamhuis didn’t play the PP but Bieksa did for 1.71/60 and posted a 1.06 G+A1/60. On the PK, Carle ranked 6th on the Flyers while Hamhuis lead Nashville with 2.46 and Bieksa was second in Vancouver with 2.56/60. When you look at those salaries of 4.5 and 4.6 and then the stats of Matt Carle you ask yourself ‘how is it possible that he’s not worth 4.5+?’ Then you come to the sobering realization that Matt Carle is worth more than 4.5 million per year. He plays pretty tough minutes and dominates them. There are posts all over this site explaining how he didn’t just rely on Pronger---in fact he played better without the big guy. I hate to say it but if Matt Carle continues his dominating play at even strength then he is going to get a raise of at least a million from his 3.45 that he makes right now---and that is assuming he stinks on the PP again. With the addition of Jagr and the emergence of Giroux and JVR, the Flyers have all of the potential to dominate while up a man. With Pronger, Timonen, Meszaros, and Carle manning the points there is no reason to expect that we will slump again this year and if we do succeed… and if Matt Carle plays a bigger part in it (G+A1/60 of around 3-4, up there with the better defenders in the league) then Matt Carle has the potential to make 5 million dollars next year.

Player TOI/60 Rk ZS% Rk CRelQoC CRelQoT G/60 A1/60 P/60 G+A1/60 Corsi On Rk Corsi Rel Rk TOI/G Rk G/60 A1/60 P/60 G+A1/60 TOI/60 Rk
Coburn 17.45 2 49.7 2 1 1 0.04 0.29 0.55 0.33 -1.72 5 0.3 5 0.34 5 0 0 0 0 2.38 3
Tallinder 16.47 2 49 6 1 1 0.18 0.31 0.84 0.49 -1.24 4 -0.23 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 2.92 2
Leopold 16.83 1 47.3 7 1 1 0.35 0.31 0.97 0.66 -6.2 5 -2.7 5 1.22 4 0.61 0 1.21 0.61 2.75 3

The two comparisons to Braydon Coburn are Henrik Tallinder and Jordan Leopold. Tallinder signed a 4 year deal worth 3.375 per year after the 09-10 seasons with the Devils and Leopold signed a 3 year deal worth 3 million per year after the 09-10 seasons with the Sabres. The first thing that you’ll notice is that Brayden plays nearly a full minute per 60 more than Tallinder and a half minute more than Leopold per game, but each rank in the top two on their respective teams. Although each guy ranges from 47.3-49.7% offensive zone start, Coburn ranked second highest on the Flyers while the other guys ranked near the bottom of their respective defensive corps. Essentially, even though Coburn was more “sheltered” in terms of comparison to his teammates and Tallinder and Leopold take tougher starts compared to their teammates, each guy starts in the offensive zone roughly the same amount. The one thing that really bunches these guys into the same group is that they are all asked to play the toughest assignments day in and day out going up against top competition but using top line mates to help them out. Each player is shot on more than they shoot (with Leopold being considerably worse at -6.2 than Coburn or Tallinder at -1.7 and -1.24 respectivly) when you take the CorsiRel you see that Coburn is the only positive player. Another interesting side note is each defender, in both Corsi and CorsiRel, ranks in the bottom half of their respective defenses which is most likely due to the tough situations they play. Even though Coburn controls the play slightly better than his comparisons, his offensive game doesn’t match up. At only .33 G+A1/60 Coburn’s rate is only two-thirds of Tallinder and only one-half of Leopolds. With the assist rates are all almost identical; its goal scoring that separates the trio. On the powerplay we see more similarities. Neither guy ranks in the top-3 as far as PPTOI/60 goes, but Leopold’s 1.22 PPTOI/60 was good for 4th; however, his limited sample size and unimpressive results helps me conclude that none of these guys are going to be paid for PP time. On the flip side all three guys get the second or third most PK minutes for their respective teams with Coburn’s 2.38 trailing Tallinder’s 2.92 and Leopold’s 2.57 by just a small margin. Looking at all of this data I think that if Brayden is not the best of these three guys he’s certainly right at their level. He is about to enter the second year of a two year deal paying 3.2 million per which fits right between Leopold’s 3 million and Tallinder’s 3.375 million. I think it’s safe to assume he’ll get a little bit of a raise, but nothing drastic. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t make the 3.2 he’s making this year and almost as shocked if he makes more than 3.75. For now, 3.55 would be very fair considering the length of the contract.

I just want to conclude by saying everything can change with what happens this year as these predictions are roughly 10 months early but with the limited amount of action we’ve received since July 1st I figured I’d take a look at what next offseason holds for us.

 

Go Flyers!

 

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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