What A Steal, JVR Signs 6-Year Deal

by OrangeNblacK on Aug 30, 2011 5:11 PM EDT

JVR signed today for a 6-year/25.5 million dollar contract. There are pretty mixed reviews and most people are considering it a high-risk/high-reward play. Thats not how I see it.

Am I the only one who thinks that we got a major steal here? I don't really see the overpayment... We are giving him 4.25 million which using Eric's formula for PPG vs. Cap Hit (=0.0000001*4250000+0.2537) translates to 55.65 points per season. Am I the only one who thinks that a 15 point increase is very doable for JVR, this year? In all honesty, his PP time alone should be able to get him an extra 10 points. He had 4 total PP points with his 1.31 PPTOI/60 ranking 8th on the team. His 3.65 PPTOI/60 in the playoffs is just an indicator that he will see much more PP time this year. Carter and Richard's 2.73 and 2.74 regular season PPTOI/60 is another indicator that JVR's PPTOI numbers will go up as well. On top of all of that he was TENTH on the team in PPP/60 with a 2.45 (Richards, Leino, Carter, Briere all in the 3.5-3.75 area). Mike Richards had 21 power play points last year, Carter had 17, and Ville had 11. Where do all of those points go? If JVR doesn't have 15 power play points this year---considering the time he will get--- I will be shocked. There is an 11 point increase over last year, right there (40 points last year + 11= 51).

Now on to JVR's 36 even strength points last year... where he ranked 8th in ESTOI/60 with 12.79. He had 14.87 in the playoffs. Now I'm not saying that he'll have 14+ but I am saying he will be at least around 14. The main counterpoint could be that Richie only had 13.29 but he played the PK. JVR is similar to Danny Briere (14.65) and even Jeff Carter (13.93) in that he will not be a top-4 PK guy so he will have all of his (or at least the vast majority) minutes at ES or on the PP. If he does get the 14 per game of ES time that would be roughly an 11% increase over last year; 36 ESP * 1.11 ESTOI increase = 40 ESP. Take those 40 ESP and add on 15 PPP and there is your 4.25 million dollar cap hit on year one.

All of those increases aren't even considering that he's actually a better hockey player than twelve months ago, which he most certainly is. I have talked about this before but last year's playoffs he had 6.5 shots a game---which is unsustainable. His rookie year he averaged 2.21 per game and last year he had 2.30. To argue that he wont have 3.25 shots per game this year is outrageous and if you inflate his shots by the 40% increase AND take his shooting percentage DOWN from the 12% it was last year to the 10% it was in the playoffs his goal total would be 27. Playing with any combo of Giroux/Briere/Jagr/Voracek will surely improve his assists from 19 to at least 25.

Not only do I think that this deal will work out in the long run but I think that JVR can provide value on his contract this year.

Poll

Using Eric's PPG vs. Cap Chart JVR will be worth what next year?

47 points, 3.25 million

6 votes

51 points, 3.75 million

8 votes

55 points, 4.25 million

16 votes

60 points, 4.75 million

24 votes

64 points, 5.25 million

5 votes

68 points, 5.75 million

10 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | Add comment | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

It’s not so much that people are upset about the salary, it’s the fact that the Flyers are wasting away JVR’s RFA years ansd treating him like a UFA. Traditionally, you set a player like JVR up so his contract ends right before he becomes an RFA, and then you sign him long term and give him the crazy crash

I’ll try this example, back when I was a managed in simulated hockey, RFA status lasted until I believe the player was 27. So, when the player would come out of the draft at 20 years old, you would see the max contract for the draftee lets say max money, 4 years (4 years was the max). At that point in time, with the player at 24, they needed a new deal, so what I would do is give him a 3 year deal and the money that his skill determined (we had pts brackets that demanded something like a 15% increase over their current contract or whatever, you get the point). So, right when my players would hit 26, I would give or extend large contracts to the 26 year olds because they were set to become UFA’s at the end of the year, and then I would have to engage in a bidding war with other teams, and the price would go through the roof

What the flyers have done, is that instead of extending JVR’s contract on that last year of his eligibility of being a restricted free agent, they have extended him bast that deadline. So, when the season ends on that last year of his contract, he becomes a unrestricted free agent, and his price goes up.

It’s really simple, it’s easier and more cost controlled to do with restricted free agents than it is to deal with UFAs. The Flyers are overpaying in the meantime, and in all likelihood, will be overpaying when JVR becomes a UFA, or is ijn the last year of his contract before he becomes a UFA

Flyers dropped the ball, and it’s going to cost them more salary cap

I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Aug 30, 2011 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

The Flyers are paying JVR for what they think he will do in the future, not what he has done in the past. The Flyers are not using JVR’s RFA status to their advantage.

In a few years, it is wholly possible this contract looks good, but today, it is a dumb because it creates a risk they never needed to take.

Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.

by Justin F. on Aug 30, 2011 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

Yep, the contract isn’t terrible, but the Flyers wasted an opportunity to get some quality JVR years for cheap, like what they will get with Giroux (considering G is RFA even at the end of his current contract). After seeing the Giroux deal I thought the Flyers had a grasp on dealing with their incoming RFAs to create cap-friendly and future-friendly contracts, but now I’m thinking the Giroux deal might have been a pleasant fluke.

That said, the JVR deal isn’t terrible or an albatross by any means. Just a bit puzzling.

Hopefully the Flyers management get a grasp of the concepts by the time it comes to re-sign Voracek, then Schenn, then Couturier

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Aug 31, 2011 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Just to be clear, that formula comes from a regression fit to all players, which is strongly affected by (dominated by) players whose contracts cover UFA-eligible years.

JvR’s contract covers mostly RFA-eligible years, and UFAs typically get about 40% more than RFAs.

I agree with your conclusion that he is likely to provide good value in this contract, but an RFA should produce even better value than that. This would be a great deal if they had signed him as an unrestricted free agent, but is not a good deal for a player who was under team control for the next five years.

by Eric T. on Sep 1, 2011 5:40 PM EDT reply actions

Good point on the regression for everyone, I didn’t really think of how that would affect JvR considering the RFA/UFA situation. I wrote this to play devils advocate for all of the people who are worried he won’t live up to his potential. I havn’t posted about it in a few days to really let it sink in, but the more it sinks in, the more I like it. Much of the confusion with the Flyers’ offseason was about how we have a young group and an old group. Why ditch the middle group and keep the distance from the old guys and young guys even further apart? In signing JvR to this deal we sacrifice value now to gain value later, obviously. The question becomes why did we do this? If you take a look at our roster right now, we are gaining value on a lot of our contracts. Kimmo’s 6+ is a bit steep but he can still play at least around a 4-5 million dollar defender, if not better. Pronger, if healthy, is way more than a 4.91 million dollar defender, Giroux is way better than a 3.75 million dollar forward, Jagr should produce (according to the graph and regression above) at least 55 points, good for 4.25 million, and Briere should provide 4.75 value on his 6.5 contract. Voracek, Simmonds, Nodl, Carle, Coburn, and Bryz should all play at or way above (Voracek/Carle) the value of their contracts.

In 5-7 years when JVR is on his 4-6th year of his new contract, take a look at the value. Pronger will be paid 4.9 at around 40. Briere is still under and he’ll be near 40 as will Bryz. JvR’s contract, built the way it was, provides the most value in the time where we need it. I think he’s going to score around 60 points this year and if that is the case, there is no way we’d get him on a 6-year/4.25 per deal. Maybe we’ll get a 4.25 for his RFA years (3-year/12.75 total) but when those 3 are done he could deserve 5, 6 or even 7 million per year—-up to 3 more than he will be paid over those next three years.

I know we really took a shot in the dark as far as offering him the deal a year early, but I’m very excited to watch this kid develop into a star…

Okay, thats all well and good, we have guys playing at the twilight

by OrangeNblacK on Sep 2, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I have no idea what that last sentence is… please disregard.

by OrangeNblacK on Sep 2, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Think about how much more excitement you’d be feeling if the Flyers got themselves the appropriate discount for assuming risk, or waited another 6 to 12 months and signed either the same deal or one for slightly less money. That’s the thing, I don’t think anyone doubts this contract will be good value, that’s the point of RFA contracts, to provide teams with great value, and the Flyers cheated themselves out of that value. It’s not a bad contract, it’s one, in 7 years everyone will say JVR outplayed (or so I’m assuming because I think he will), but none of that changes the fact that the Flyers slightly overpaid JVR while simultaneously taking on risk for this contract in terms of similar type contracts. That’s all.

You sir are a gentleman of four outs!

by DLJr on Sep 2, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry I have to agree with the post. I said it then and I will say it now. It becomes even clearer now that the Doughty talks have gotten more heated.

Yes the Flyers are taking a risk. Yes they could have waited. What they opted to do however, was give him a little extra money based on potential and in return got two UFA years. Now I know we had a long discussion about this a month ago but I think enough time has passed were we can look at again differently.

A lot of people said that he could sign the same deal next year. My argument was that if he has a very good season this year, he would not sign the same deal. I think by the Flyers slight overpayment they got his first two UFA years as payment.

Now look at the Doughty negotiations. I am not saying JvR would be holding out I am just saying look at what is being reported. There is a seven and nine year offer that has been reported. Both would have cap hits of 6.8 million a year. Doughty camp wants more money for that long of a deal. So what they want is the same money on a 4 year deal. The team says no way if you want a deal that gives us all your RFA with no UFA than we are not going to pay that much. It has been reported that is the sticking point. The team is only going to pay 5 or 5.5 million a year for a 4 year deal.

I look at it as the Doughty deal almost in reverse. The Flyers came to JvR and said will pay you a little more for your potential but we want 2 UFA years.

In conclusion I don’t see JvR signing the same contract if he were to come off of a 60 pt. season. He would get somewhere near the same as far as money but the Flyers don’t get any UFA years. So I think the Flyers did a smart thing and I know most will disagree but so be it. But as you can see JvR is looking great so far in camp so it doesn’t really matter cause it will be a fun season. GO FLYERS!!!!!!!!!

by Mattx on Sep 25, 2011 2:36 AM EDT reply actions