JVR signed today for a 6-year/25.5 million dollar contract. There are pretty mixed reviews and most people are considering it a high-risk/high-reward play. Thats not how I see it.

Am I the only one who thinks that we got a major steal here? I don't really see the overpayment... We are giving him 4.25 million which using Eric's formula for PPG vs. Cap Hit (=0.0000001*4250000+0.2537) translates to 55.65 points per season. Am I the only one who thinks that a 15 point increase is very doable for JVR, this year? In all honesty, his PP time alone should be able to get him an extra 10 points. He had 4 total PP points with his 1.31 PPTOI/60 ranking 8th on the team. His 3.65 PPTOI/60 in the playoffs is just an indicator that he will see much more PP time this year. Carter and Richard's 2.73 and 2.74 regular season PPTOI/60 is another indicator that JVR's PPTOI numbers will go up as well. On top of all of that he was TENTH  on the team in PPP/60 with a 2.45 (Richards, Leino, Carter, Briere all in the 3.5-3.75 area). Mike Richards had 21 power play points last year, Carter had 17, and Ville had 11. Where do all of those points go? If JVR doesn't have 15 power play points this year---considering the time he will get--- I will be shocked. There is an 11 point increase over last year, right there (40 points last year + 11= 51).

Now on to JVR's 36 even strength points last year... where he ranked 8th in ESTOI/60 with 12.79. He had 14.87 in the playoffs. Now I'm not saying that he'll have 14+ but I am saying he will be at least around 14. The main counterpoint could be that Richie only had 13.29 but he played the PK. JVR is similar to Danny Briere (14.65) and even Jeff Carter (13.93) in that he will not be a top-4 PK guy so he will have all of his (or at least the vast majority) minutes at ES or on the PP. If he does get the 14 per game of ES time that would be roughly an 11% increase over last year; 36 ESP * 1.11 ESTOI increase = 40 ESP. Take those 40 ESP and add on 15 PPP and there is your 4.25 million dollar cap hit on year one.

All of those increases aren't even considering that he's actually a better hockey player than twelve months ago, which he most certainly is. I have talked about this before but last year's playoffs he had 6.5 shots a game---which is unsustainable. His rookie year he averaged 2.21 per game and last year he had 2.30. To argue that he wont have 3.25 shots per game this year is outrageous and if you inflate his shots by the 40% increase AND take his shooting percentage DOWN from the 12% it was last year to the 10% it was in the playoffs his goal total would be 27. Playing with any combo of Giroux/Briere/Jagr/Voracek will surely improve his assists from 19 to at least 25. 

Not only do I think that this deal will work out in the long run but I think that JVR can provide value on his contract this year.