Wednesday Morning Fly By: Yesterday Was Rinaldo's Day; Who's Day Is It Today?

What is Hiller rated? Usually these things don’t upset, but the dude is awesome.

The Ducks a 78 on Offense? That’s crazy.

you have my interests. Go ahead

Both are very good. Diane Lane naked is usually a good time.

you are killing me with one word answers

Nor am I.

I’m not seeing it. And I actually prefer red heads to blondes.

Seriously? I’m the only one that agrees with CCB on this? I feel as if this is some BizzaroStreetHockey.

Don, I always knew you were a smart fellow.

You are taking my “it doesn’t matter what happens next year out” of context. I said that because you already overpaid based on expected value, that was my point with what you are referring to, not my entire point, and most certainly not how you are using it here. My whole point of expected value though was calculated on what happens in 2011/2012, and that was the point I repeated over and over. I told you several times that the only season that can truly effect this contract is 2011/2012 if they had chose to wait (which is what I thought they should do if JVR wouldn’t give them a discount for signing early). I also said over and over that by signing it early, the Flyers should have gotten a discount for paying for potential and taking on risk. You can review some quotes below. I was saying what Eric said.

-Me saying if you sign now you should get a discount:

The point of signing it now is to give yourself a discount, not wait and see. We’ve been over this ad nauseam. This was an overpay now, waiting and seeing is irrelevant to Eric and I’s point.

-Me explaining my problem again, either wait and sign not on potential, or sign today and receive a discount:

Now ignore all the similar risks taken in literally every single contract, and focus on the key one here that we’ve been talking about; the risk of signing the contract now as opposed to 6 months or 12 months from now AND including in the contract payment for unrealized potential….The Flyers took the risk, they should receive a discount here, not pay a premium. You don’t pay a premium to take on a risk, you never do, that’s bad business.

-Me trying to get you on the same page as me, telling you how I’m analyzing it, specifically saying he only has a chance to impact it this year:

I’m analyzing this from the perspective of signing the deal today, versus at the end of the season. The only chance he has to impact that is this year.

-Me saying that I care specifically what happens in 2011/2012:

I’ve told you repeatedly that my thresholds were only for the 2011/2012 season since my problem is with them signing this contract for this value in 2011 rather than waiting for 2012. I’m not concerned about years 2,3, 4, 5, 6, I’m not even concerned about year one. My problem is, they gave him a contract extension starting in 2012 for a proven 60 to 65 point player with 4 RFA years left to a player in 2011 who is only a proven 40 point player. They are paying early (and slightly too much) for something that hasn’t, and may not, happen before the contract kicks in.

-Me saying that why sign it now without a discount, an important distinction:

I’m saying, by signing 6 to 12 months early, the Flyers took on a unnecessary risk, while simultaneously paying above market value for JVR (including his 2 UFA years). That the smart move would have either been to receive a discount by signing the contract early, or to wait for the end of the season to sign it since I believe anything between 60-65 points would yiled the same contract, 55 points and less would yield a more favorable contract for the Flyers, and 75 or more would have cost the Flyers money.

-Me saying I don’t care about any years of the contract, referring to my previous comment of what he does this year, 2011/2012 is what matters, and then why sign it now without a discount:

2. I’m not concerned about any of the years of his contract, I’ve said that so many times now. My complaint about his contract is not related to his performance during it, it’s about the timing of it, the comparables given production to that point, and the $’s given.
Please stop referring to years 1,2,3,4,5,6…my point never had anythign to do with them. My point is, as I stated above, they gave a contract that would normally be for a player who has already proven to be a 60 to 65 point guy at the time of the signing. They gave it to him without him proving that.

Both of you if you go and look and the conversation though more so Don than you claimed it did not matter what either player did next year.

Again, I think you misunderstood his point here. Don wasn’t saying “no matter what JvR does this year, the Flyers shouldn’t have signed him yet”; he was saying “no matter what JvR does this year, the Flyers paid more than they should have”.

55 cents is too much to pay for a $1 coinflip. If it comes up heads, you are lucky, not vindicated — and your 45 cent profit is still smaller than it should’ve been.