Defining 'clutch' play: Does it exist?

by Travis Hughes on Sep 16, 2011 1:30 PM EDT in Philadelphia Flyers Commentary

So, Eric T. wrote this comment in yesterday's Fly By. It should be much more than a comment. It should be a story. It's now a story. You're welcome, Eric. - Travis

I went through every goal in the league in the last two years and marked off how many met BSHer MJDII's definition of clutch: scored in OT or the last 10 minutes of regulation, to tie the game or give their team the lead. The results:

7.1% of all goals are "clutch". So you might expect a 30-goal scorer to have 2 clutch goals per year, on average.
Carter had one clutch goal in 2010-11, 2.8% of his total. He had no clutch goals in '09-10, 0% of his total.
Andreas Nodl elevated his game the most in the clutch in '10-11, with 3 of his 11 goals (27.3%) coming in the clutch.
Danny Briere had the most clutch goals in '10-11, with 4. However, he padded his stats with so many unclutch goals that he was just a bit above the league average in clutch percentage.
Scott Hartnell was the least clutch player in '10-11. He had the talent to score 24 garbage goals, but never had any when it counted.

Before you read too much into any of this, let's look at '09-10, too:

The year before being the least clutch player on the team, Scott Hartnell was the most clutch, leading the team in both total clutch goals (3) and clutch goal percentage (21.4%). And yet '09-10 was considered a bad year for him.
The year before leading the team in clutch goals, Danny Briere had just one in 28 tries (3.6%). For the two-year total, the team's super-clutch playoff performer lands right at league average.
Just like Carter, Giroux had one clutch goal in '10-11 and zero in '09-10.

And around the league:

Sidney Crosby is another big choker, with only 3.3% of his goals coming in the clutch.
Patrick Kane is an even bigger choker, with only 1.6% of his goals coming in the clutch.
The Caps are full of clutch performers. Ovechkin (6.9%) and Backstrom (7.3%) are right near the league average, while Semin (20% in '10-11) and Laich (17.1%) are way above average. What a clutch team.

And of course, this wouldn't be complete without a chart:

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Comments

Nice URL.

@BSH_EricT
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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

You bunch of trolls.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs

Cute.

by Pink Eyes on Sep 16, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

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by Travis Hughes on Sep 17, 2011 4:28 AM EDT up reply actions

The Caps stats are padded by league refs who tend to always give that team a PP at the end of a game especially if they are behind in a score.

And shouldn’t Nodl be eliminated 11 goals is small sample size bias.

by chrislanci on Sep 16, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

The Caps had 31 clutch non-PP goals in the last two years. The Flyers had 21.

And what’s the point of worrying about the sample size on something that appears to be random over all sample sizes?

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

The Caps are full of clutch performers. Ovechkin (6.9%) and Backstrom (7.3%) are right near the league average, while Semin (20% in ’10-11) and Laich (17.1%) are way above average. What a clutch team.

Heh.

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by J.P. on Sep 16, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions

They are the clutchiest clutches that ever clutched.

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by PPP on Sep 16, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

yet they wanna trade Semin every other day

by Mattx on Sep 17, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Well what’s he done for them lately?

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by hintzy64 on Sep 18, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I am not saying he has done anything. Just commenting on what the stats show. According to this post he is “clutch” but he is always on the “market”. So maybe he is better than some fans think.

by Mattx on Sep 18, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re accepting the results here as telling?

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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 18, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't think it was necessary at the time, but perhaps Eric should have written

the entire post in the sarcasm font...

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by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 18, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

of course not but I just thought I should at least make him feel like his effort was worth it:)

by Mattx on Sep 19, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn you Travis, why are you rehashing this!

You sir are a gentleman of four outs!

by DLJr on Sep 16, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

I think we all know that answer.

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by boknows71 on Sep 16, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

More in depth conversations of vanilla versus chocolate/

You sir are a gentleman of four outs!

by DLJr on Sep 16, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

This vanilla?

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by boknows71 on Sep 16, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Patrick Kane is an even bigger choker, with only 1.6% of his goals coming in the clutch.

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by Chase W on Sep 16, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

The URL made me laugh out loud.

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by Justin F. on Sep 16, 2011 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

Just a note if this is not obvious to people: very few goals are scored at the end of games. 10 minute and OT represent at least 1/6 of the total time but less than 1/12 of the total goals. Do we think this is because refs put away the whistle?

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by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

Or teams play more conservatively, shorten the bench?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The requirement isn’t just that it be the end of the game, but that it be the end of the game and create or break a tie.

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, nevermind. I forgot how much I hate this useless definition.

Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."

by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You know who to blame for it. ;-)

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by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Yea yea yea.

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by MJDII on Sep 16, 2011 5:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

No, no, no…the Yeah Yeah Yeahs had nothing to do with it.

Bob.

by The Dark on Sep 16, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

If first goals of the game are extremely important (I’m not saying they are, just saying IF they are), then should we consider first goals as clutch?

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

Not under this definition. First goals are meaningless, unless they come in the last 10 minutes.

Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."

by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Obviously I get that they aren’t clutch under this definition. I’m suggesting maybe this definition isn’t perfect.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

This definition is horrendous. Only one person is suggesting it’s a good one, and we argued with him about it for most of this week. This post is a lark.

Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."

by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I know. I’m agreeing with you guys.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

A lark and not a canard?

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by J.P. on Sep 16, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

I don’t think it’s false, it’s just founded on misinformation? Regardless, this is how Eric has fun.

Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."

by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

This doesn’t sound quite as flattering and awe-inspired as you undoubtedly meant it.

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

It’s all in the inflection. My compliments are always tonal.

Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."

by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

How about an unladen African Swallow?

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
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by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

10 to 15 meters per second.

Bob.

by The Dark on Sep 16, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

As if any of you had anything better to do. The site has been stale until I started shaking some heads. I am just trying to add a spark.

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by MJDII on Sep 16, 2011 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

It’s the definition we were told to use, and I’m sure that’s what Don’s link below points to. So sure I’m not even going to click his link to check.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
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by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Please revisit this exact conversation here.

You sir are a gentleman of four outs!

by DLJr on Sep 16, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

1228 out of 7033 goals were first goals — 17.5%.

Carter ranked 7th among 25+ goal scorers with 25% of his goals being first goals. What a game-changer he is!

Crosby still sucks though, at 9.1%.

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Um, when does Crosby score? All filler no killer?

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by Snevik on Sep 16, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Only in 6-2 blowouts, obviously.

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s A-Rod?

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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually…

15 of his 32 goals last year came when the Penguins already had a lead of 2 or more goals. (!)

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Look at this meaningless stat-padding.

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I like the 24-6 first period shot total.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 16, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Score effects.

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by George E. Ays on Sep 16, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

haha, in a 0-0 game.

Touche.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 16, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

That or the stat counter fell asleep on the “Pittsburgh shot” button.

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by Ubiquitous on Sep 16, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I think this calls for another chart on “Useless stat padding aka Crosby goals”

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by Ubiquitous on Sep 16, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This is why I <3 Eric.

How about clutchiosity in goaltenders? Maybe the definition could be those that don’t allow goals in the final period or final ten minutes of one goal games.

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by ToddtheFox on Sep 16, 2011 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

You can’t use “clutchiosity”.

That is my fantasy baseball team name. It’s trademarked.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 16, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Clutchitudenessositifcationaly.

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by red army line on Sep 16, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

It might be simpler, from a data collection standpoint, to look at the “clutch” goals that have already been compiled, see who was in net for them, and turn that into goalie unclutchiosity. Just since it’s easier to count goals than not-goals.

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by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

And “unclutchiosity” doesn’t infringe on Geoff’s precious trademark.

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by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

…yet

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Sep 16, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Your wish is my command

7.9% of all goals against are “clutchious” (higher than the all-goals total because empty net unclutch goals are removed).

Among the 51 goalies who gave up at least 50 goals, Bobrovsky ranked 3rd with 11.7% of his goals against being clutchious — he padded his stats with lots of meaningless saves when the game was 0-0 in the first period or 3-1 in the third, but stunk in the late-game, tied-or-up-by-one situations.

The only goalies even less clutch than Bobrovsky were Pekka Rinne (12.8% of goals against were clutch) and Jonathan Quick (12.7%). Premier clutch goalies include Niklas Backstrom (1.5%), James Reimer (2.2%), and of course, everyone knows the Devils have an extremely clutch goalie in Johan Hedberg (2.9%) (wait, what?)

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Man

That Pikke Rinne guy sucks. Why was he ever considered for the Vezina?

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by Semi_Colon on Sep 16, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Because the huge Nashville media contingent just won’t STFU about him.

Obviously, this is all speculation.

by Rob Parker on Sep 16, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

Oh, that is beyond hilarious. Well done, sir.

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by hintzy64 on Sep 18, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Hartnell

I consider Hartnell’s backhand goal in game 7 versus Boston two seasons ago to be clutch. That to me was his best moment to date as a Flyer. Of course every goal that game could be called clutch….

by Buckwsr on Sep 16, 2011 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

off topic, but Captain Elbows was officially named. with Briere and Lord Timonen named A’s

by Jazzy85 on Sep 16, 2011 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

Surprise surprise….

-bob

by Rrainone on Sep 16, 2011 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Adds another subplot to this year’s HBO 24/7.

by flyerboom_6 on Sep 16, 2011 4:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The headline for this post should be

“In a move that should shock exactly no one”

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by doubleh on Sep 16, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I AM SHOCKED...

…that it took them so long to state the obvious.

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by hintzy64 on Sep 18, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Pronger named captain

damn, and here i was hoping Rinaldo would be handed the C, would’ve been nice to give him the nickname “Captain Insano”

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by DannyMcG on Sep 16, 2011 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

This is the best post.

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by Chemmy on Sep 16, 2011 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks. And it now has even more Maple Leaf content!

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by Eric T. on Sep 16, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait

I was told Toews was extremely clutch and always scored when his team needed him to?

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Sep 16, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

Toews wasn’t mentioned in the article. Kane was.

by Pink Eyes on Sep 16, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"

by Semi_Colon on Sep 16, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Total No Coast bias.

What3v3r.

by ww2b on Sep 17, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

What an incredible chokejob by Boston in the Cup finals. 0 out of 23?!

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by JaredL on Sep 17, 2011 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

The Caps do tie games late a ton. As someone who tries to tune in whenever they’re losing late, I have witnessed to this phenomenon more times than I’d like to recall.

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by Ben Rothenberg on Sep 17, 2011 7:25 AM EDT reply actions