Shutout! Sergei Bobrovsky, Flyers blank Leafs in preseason opener, 4-0
by Travis Hughes on Sep 20, 2011 10:40 PM EDT
in Philadelphia Flyers Game Recaps - 11-12
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SHUTOUT SHUTOUT OH MY GOD SHUTOUT.
Alright, now that that's out of the way: The Philadelphia Flyers kicked off the 2011 preseason on Tuesday night with a 4-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. Zac Rinaldo opened the scoring, followed by goals from Wayne Simmonds, Mike Testwuide and Sean Couturier. Sergei Bobrovsky made 27 saves in the shutout effort.
That's the bare bones stuff, but it's preseason. Who really cares about the final score? It's all about evaluating where these guys are on an individual level right now, so let's crack open the bullet points and get right into it.
Sergei Bobrovsky looked absolutely fantastic tonight. Honestly, it looked as though he never stopped playing hockey this summer and that he's just been plugging away since May. Literally zero rust. He looked sharp, made a ton of huge saves and seemed much more composed in the crease than he did a year ago.
Bob seemed worlds better at the one glaring weakness he had a year ago. He wasn't flying all over the crease, over-compensating and lacking the the composure department. If that continues.... well, I don't know what to think if that continues, because we have a different goalie locked up for nine years. One game, let's keep telling ourselves that.
Zac Rinaldo looked great tonight, and Peter Laviolette definitely gave him an opportunity, putting him with two skill guys in Matt Read and Jakub Voracek. He delivered with a pretty goal and proved that he can hang with those guys. We're going to have more on Rinaldo's effort in this game in a bit because it really deserves a deeper dive, but he was solid tonight.
And not crazy. That's big too.
Tom Sestito is the one guy that's really in a roster battle with Rinaldo over that final forward position on the Flyers roster, and there's a lot going for him: his waiver situation is favorable and his contract is really tiny. But really, these two guys aren't the same player at all. Rinaldo is smallish, Sestito is massive.
And while Rinaldo might be absolutely insane, he does have a bit of skill, sort of in the Dan Carcillo mold. Not a ton, but enough to well... enough to get by. Sestito is clearly more of just a big bruiser who plays on your fourth line and beats the crap out of people. He made some mistakes tonight, but he tried to make up for them by beating the living hell out of Joffrey Lupul in the third period.
Lupul had some words for Harry Zolnierczyk, and Sestito stepped in and challenged Lupul. Loops shoved him and Sestito's fists took that as an opportunity to murder his face. It was ugly. That's what Sestito is going to bring the Flyers, and he can likely do it just as well as Jody Shelley and for a hell of a lot less money.
Matt Read had a fantastic game. He was quite possibly the best Flyer on the ice tonight. He's another guy we're going to have more on later (probably tomorrow) because there's more than we can fit in a quick little snippet here.
The two young guys we all have our eyes on, Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier, were both pretty solid tonight. Couturier seemed to make more noise than Schenn, but that's what happens when you're involved in two scoring plays. Couturier's goal was basically luck thanks to a bad giveaway by Toronto's Joe Colborne, but overall he was solid tonight. Still not close to NHL ready by any stretch, but he was good.
Schenn is clearly being tested all over the ice. He played on the penalty kill and on the power play tonight and, not that we have zone start info for these games, but he seemed to be used quite a bit in the defensive end of the ice. Hopefully my eyes aren't betraying me on that.
As for guys that are going to be on the NHL roster, Wayne Simmonds was quite impressive tonight. It was just a glimpse, but he played as advertised: energetic, solid on the back check, etc. And he got a power play goal, which was neat. Had the same impression of Voracek: he was quite good, speedy, as advertised.
Didn't pay attention to the defensemen too much tonight, but Andreas Lilja, Oskars Bartulis and company didn't really stand out as horrible. So that's good. Of course, the Leafs didn't bring much of an attack all night, save for a few opportunities where they had sustained pressure in the zone.
Of note, though: Blake Kessel freakin' loves jumping up into the play in the offensive zone. It seems like he tries to do it every shift. He got a lot of ice time tonight: 20:46. Oskars Bartulis led all defensemen (and all Flyers skaters) in ice time with 21:44.
815 words is enough for a preseason game, right? Like I said, more later. For now, questions with answers and the comment of the night.
Questions with Answers
- How does Michael Leighton look these days? TV puts on a few pounds. Or maybe that's something to do with riding the pine all night.
- Considering they both play, who has a better game: Tom Sestito or Zac Rinaldo? Rinaldo, for sure. Sestito made a few mistakes with the puck and Rinaldo scored a goal. Sestito only played eight minutes.
- Same question: Oskars Bartulis, Andreas Lilja or Matt Walker? Didn't notice too much of a difference between the three. Walker was a plus-2, so you know somebody will read into that too much. Hopefully they all play again tomorrow night.
- The much anticipated sibling battles between the Brothers Schenn and the Brothers Kessel. What happens? Anything fun? Not a thing.
- We play the Leafs a lot in the preseason, which means Jay Rosehill is basically our BFF. If he's not scratched tonight, who's he fight (or try to fight)? Rosehill was a scratch. Damn. Sestito almost fought Orr in the first (I think) but that wound up not happening.
- Adam Mair and Michael Nylander. Is that fun or scary? Mair played with Sestito and Zolnierczyk. They were the fourth line, and Mair didn't seem like a defensive liability. But again, the Leafs didn't do much offensively tonight. Nylander didn't dress.
- Sean Couturier's first NHL action. Is that fun or scary? It was fun. He's not Gretzky or anything, but it was fun. Just getting his feet wet.
Comment of the Night
Rule of thumb. Don’t pick fights with guys that can easily kick your butt.
>> LVHokejs. Hopefully Lupul reads the site.
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Comments
The Wolf made some nice little plays here and there. Walker wasn’t horrible.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Sep 20, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. Also of note, I think it was an accident, but I think poor Gus ended up playing the full length of one of the PKs. 2:16 shift, ouch.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 20, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Was that a PP? Thought the 4th line got caught during the 2nd and he couldn’t make it to the bench cause the first clear wasn’t far enough
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Sep 20, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it was a penalty kill in the 1st when Harry Z took an interference penalty. Lilja managed to get off the ice a little less than halfway through and Carle came in, but Gus didn’t manage to change until the kill was over. Thats a long shift shorthanded.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 20, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he did get stuck in the second as well, remember because of the long change
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Sep 20, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I missed most of the 2nd, but looking at the stat sheet, Kessel really got stuck in the second. He had a 2:54 shift!
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 20, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
That second period shift I am guessing was after the icing and saw Sestito line matches up against Toronto’s top line of Kessler and Tim Connolly. Schenn was out there for that shift and everyone was scrambling in the DZone BoB made big saves to bail them out.
Bob looked really good especially in his two weaknesses, handling the puck and playing too deep in the net. He was out quite far some shots really challenging the shooters but his regular positioning seemed about a step out further which is a good thing.
Agreed as a Bartulis sceptic I thought he played really well tonight in the open ice but with Bartulis my fear is he is weak along the boards and in the one on one battles I didn’t notice anything bad in that area so that is a good thing. If Bartulis is penciled in as the 6th – 7th D-Man he didn’t do anything poor justifying him being moved down on the depth chart.
The other D-Man which I watched Schenn, Lilia, Walker etc.. didn’t to stand out enough to warrant a promotion either.
At least I’m not the only one who didn’t get a real good sense of who was good on defense. I guess that means nobody was great and nobody was awful. Shutout has me leaning towards “they were all good for the most part” though.
I’d love for this to be our roster for the season:
Hartnell – Briere – Voracek
JVR – Giroux – Jagr
Read – Schenn – Simmonds
Rinaldo – Talbot – Nodl/Sestito
Carle / Pronger
Timonen / Mez
Coburn / Walker
Bryz / Bob
that looks like a pretty damn good team to me. although i have no idea if that cap scheme works…
Bullies, Phightins, and Vickerbockers
Ditto, I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Sep 20, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, fantastic to hear how good Bobrovsky looks. It’s great to know that he’s going to get a chance this season to develop as the starting goalie, hopefully proving himself as the guy who can finally anchor this team in goal for years to come…
…oh wait. (sigh)
Was seriously laughing out loud…if it was posted during the game I would have voted for this as COTN—if I had remembered we do that sort of thing around here.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
by JerseyDriver on Sep 20, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So... (Swap Lappy for Rinaldo after the reg season starts)
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($2.250m)
Jaromir Jagr ($3.300m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.845m)
/ / Ian Laperriere ($1.166m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.737m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.666m) / Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $1,402,500
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,924,762; BONUSES: $3,815,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $375,238
Bullies, Phightins, and Vickerbockers
I was just doing the same thing
So clearly you have that situation there, so then the season starts and once Lappy goes on LTIR
You can make your call-ups. I’m just posting this here to show that the Flyers really could go with Read on a line, and keeping all of Betts, Nodl, and adding on Rinaldo and Sestito if we get rid of Shelley. Obviously all 4 of them wouldn’t be on the team, but the worry about injury space is pointless since you have 2 extras built in, and you could just send them down and recall someone else if it’s something like a d-man injury, or an offensive forward. This isn’t want I think it will be or want, just showing they could have all of Nodl, Betts, Sestito, and Rinaldo if all they do is get rid of Shelley.
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($2.250m)
Jaromir Jagr ($3.300m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Tom Sestito ($0.550m)
Andreas Nodl ($0.845m) / / Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.737m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.666m) / Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $1,402,500
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,852,539; BONUSES: $3,815,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $447,461
That
Looks awesome. I don’t think it makes any sense to keep Shelley when Sestito is obviously better at pretty much every aspect of the game and costs us way less. The roster you have there I think is the best we could put forward this year with what we have and I think we have a shot at the Cup with this team.
Bullies, Phightins, and Vickerbockers
You are carrying one too many forwards 22 man roster is going to be carried Shelly isn’t going anywhere so drop Sestito for Shelly and pick one of either Rinaldo or Read both aren’t going to make the team.
Glad everyone is back to hating on Nodl.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 20, 2011 11:23 PM EDT reply actions
It’ll probably all change anyway when he plays tomorrow (presumably) and everybody who played tonight has off.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 20, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I doubt it, people hate/don’t understand/don’t see defense.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Not enough people do, anyway.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 21, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
After how good of a season he had last year, bumping him down to the fourth line after proving he is a top-9 winger in the NHL in favor of putting a 25 year old rookie on a line with another rookie, who you are asking to play shut down defense, the role Nodl excelled at last year…
Yes. It is.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
A Schenn-Simmonds wouldnt be a shutdown role… that would be the Betts-Talbot line… I dont think you should take feelings into consideration if you think a 25 yr old rookie (which you keep saying) looks like he is going to provide offense. Unless you still think that 24 yr old Nodl still has the potential to provide offensive.
Gus Supporter.
Betts/Talbot have never shown the capacity to beat second line opposition, let alone first line opposition. Talbot has never shown the ability to beat third line opposition.
How you call that a “shutdown role” is beyond me.
Further, how Nodl’s offense enters a conversation about defense shows that you are bringing feelings into consideration, since offense is unrelated to the ability to beat first line opposition.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m gonna inject a bit here – you keep saying Talbot can’t handle third-line competition, and I keep waiting for your proof thereof. The difference between Talbot’s QualComp and Nodl’s for last year was a whopping 0.04. That is NOT the difference between third and fourth line players – more like the difference between two individually similar players. Oh, and Talbot’s QualTeam and CorsiRelQoT were far lower (-0.07 and -0.1 difference to Nodl’s, respectively) so he arguably played BETTER regardless of having WORSE teammates than Nodl.
Stats are fun.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Stats are fun when you twist them, not expecting to be called out.
Talbot was 6th on his team last year in CorsiRelQoC, Nodl was 2nd. Talbot started in the OZ 54.2% of the time and ended there 49.9%. Nodl started in the OZ 43.8% and ended there 51.9%.
Yes, Nodl had better teammates, but he also faced tougher competition, in much worse zone starts, while having a higher Corsi-Rel than Talbot and driving the puck forward at an incredible rate.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not twisting them, I’m merely relating them in a way that doesn’t meet with your pre-conceived notions. I can see that Nodl moved the puck up-ice more than Talbot – but since Nodl had considerably better teammates (CorsiRelQoT) wouldn’t that be expected?? The competition he faced was not considerably ‘tougher’ as you assert; Nodl’s QualComp was 0.015 and Talbot’s -0.025. Yes, the zone starts were worse for Nodl – that one is indisputable. Is Nodl’s CorsiRelQoC really top-line competition, at a whopping 0.880, as opposed to Talbot’s 0.459? That sounds like the difference between third and fourth line minutes to my inexpert ears.
Oh, and somehow moving up ice 8% of the time doesn’t qualify in my book for:
driving the puck forward at an incredible rate.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Nodl’s CorsiRelQoC really top-line competition, at a whopping 0.880
He was 29th among all NHL forwards with at least 50 games played.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Just to feed my curiousity – and for what should be full disclosure for you – where did Talbot’s 0.459 rank?
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
So given that there were 30 teams, and figuring a 22-man roster for each (ignoring callups and such), you have 660 players in the NHL. Of those, Max Talbot ranked 146th, or top 22% of all players for CorsiRelQoC.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
and figuring a 22-man roster for each
No, as I said above, I was looking at NHL forwards with at least 50 games played.
There were 336 of those. So 146th is not in the top 22%; it is in the top 44%. Or, one might say, near the border of 2nd/3rd line.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ah – good point. But still far better than Geoff is giving credit for at this point:
Talbot has never shown the ability to beat third line opposition.
My original point was that he was better than that, so thank you for your help. :)
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Never having beaten them isn’t the same as never having faced them.
He started in the offensive zone 54.2% of the time and finished there 49.9% of the time. His Corsi Rel, Balanced Corsi, and Balanced Zone Shift were all negative. He was definitely getting beaten by that 2nd/3rd line competition.
Of course, his linemates were Cooke, Dupuis, Conner, and Rupp, so you can argue that they were dragging him down and we can’t know for sure what he could do with better linemates. But Geoff’s statement that he hasn’t proven the ability to beat those opponents still holds, IMO.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
top 22% of all players for CorsiRelQoC.
Deserved saying again.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
So 146th is not in the top 22%; it is in the top 44%.
Deserved correcting again.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ha.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
And thank you.
How the hell do you manipulate BTN like that??? It seems that the expanded fields are just gibberish to me.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Search for forwards with 50+ games on all teams, click on “Corsi Rel QoC” in the first row of the output to sort by Corsi Rel QoC, then click on “displaying first 30 rows” near the bottom of the page to show all players.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
As always, danke schoen.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and somehow moving up ice 8% of the time doesn’t qualify in my book for:
Nodl moved the puck up the ice 3.6% better than the average NHL player given those zone starts. He had the second highest OZ finish on the Flyers, with the fifth lost OZ start.
Nodl moved the puck up the ice as well as Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux. The only person on the Flyers with a better BZS was Blair Betts, who had OZ starts so low, there isn’t even a bracket for players used like him.
If you don’t think being the best player on the Flyers at moving the puck forward, or if you don’t think Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux move the puck forward at “an incredible rate”, then we are at a semantical disagreement.
Use whichever adjective you wish for Nodl that also applies to Carter and Giroux. I’m okay with “elite”.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? Nodl is now ‘elite’? On par with Carter and Giroux????
Can someone please check Geoff’s drink? I think Andreas may have given him a roofie.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
So rather than argue against the objective evidence, this is how you respond.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 22, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Dare I repeat the other response, where I point out that 4% difference does not ‘elite’ make?
Pull the stick out already Geoff – I’m not bustin’ on your boy Nodl. He’s a perfectly competent bottom-six NHL defensive forward. But you have not made a conclusive case that he is ‘elite’ or even that he ‘can face 1st line competition’ while Talbot cannot manage 3rd-liners. Even Eric agrees that Talbot’s CorsiRelQoC is in the top half of all NHL regulars, and his quality of teammates was worse than Nodl’s – and you have yet to offer ANYTHING to debunk that – which would point to Talbot being able to (and in fact having done so) ‘handle 2nd/3rd line competition’.
I really hate when you refuse to answer stats when they’re thrown back on you. It’s painfully hypocritical.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
First, Do you really want to argue over whether Carter and Giroux were “elite” last year, or merely “incredible”?
Second, I have no stick to pull out, but if you don’t appreciate my tone, maybe you should refrain from making an incontinence joke about me to someone else.
Third, I’ve never argued that he’s “elite”, so the fact that I’ve failed to make a “conclusive case” is not a surprise.
Fourth, I have made a conclusive case that he “can face 1st line competition while Talbot cannot manage 3rd liners.” It’s all over the thread. It’s also in a story I wrote, that I linked you to.
Fifth,
Even Eric agrees that Talbot’s CorsiRelQoC is in the top half of all NHL regulars
Actually, what Eric said was:
There were 336 of those. So 146th is not in the top 22%; it is in the top 44%. Or, one might say, near the border of 2nd/3rd line.
He also said that, while Talbot faced third line competition, he’s never beaten them.
I really hate when you claim I haven’t done something despite the fact that three people have been doing it.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 22, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
First, Do you really want to argue over whether Carter and Giroux were "elite" last year, or merely "incredible"?
Jeff Carter started in the offensive zone 43.8% of the time, and finished there 51.9% of the time. So he had an aggregate ‘movement forward’ of on average 8.1%.
Claude Giroux started in the offensive zone 49.2% of the time, and finished there 53.5% of the time. So he had an aggregate ‘movement forward’ of on average 4.3%.
By comparison, Jay Harrison of Carolina had OZone starts of 43.3%, and OzoneFin of 53.2% – forward aggregate movement of 9.9% – double either Flyer. Alright – he’s a defenseman. How about Jesse Winchester, with 3.9% forward movement, is he eilte (with his 13 points on the season)? Or Chris Higgins, at a whopping 6% forward movement???
In short, the fact that they moved the puck up ice is great. They are elite players. But the stat for OZone start/finish doesn’t define them as such.
Second, I have no stick to pull out, but if you don’t appreciate my tone, maybe you should refrain from making an incontinence joke about me to someone else.
At the risk of sounding juvenile – you started it. Your tone from the get-go was dismissive and you refused to actually confront me with facts (as Eric did – see how nice I was to him?) when I presented you with ones you didn’t like.
Third, I’ve never argued that he’s "elite",
Bullshit. From your own post above.
Use whichever adjective you wish for Nodl that also applies to Carter and Giroux. I’m okay with "elite".
And then,
Fourth, I have made a conclusive case that he "can face 1st line competition while Talbot cannot manage 3rd liners." It’s all over the thread. It’s also in a story I wrote, that I linked you to.
You have not made anything conclusive. Statistics may be decent predictors, but you have not even proven that much. You proved that Nodl had better movement up-ice than Talbot. You proved that Nodl’s competition was higher. You chose to completely ignore that Talbot’s linemates were far worse. If you put Jody Shelley on the ice with Crosby and Gretzky, he’d look good statistically.
Fifth,
Yes, Eric did clarify that – and you may notice I agreed with him. But you’ll also notice that the second blockquote from Eric definitively debunks your fourth point! He HAS faced them, and he HAS been at least marginally effective – he;s only lost ground against them (going back to the OZone thing) 4.3% of the time – better than Patrick Kane last season. Oh, and top 44% WOULD actually be in the top half of all forwards with more than 50 games played, last I graduated from 2nd grade math.
You may want to see how my responses to Eric and Don read, and how they compare to you. Think it may just be YOU???
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
3.6% better than the average NHL player
Wow. If I was a whopping 4% better than average, I should be considered elite. Get real, Geoff.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Unless you are trying to say Read – Schenn – Simmonds should be a scoring line, with Betts – Talbot – Nodl as your fourth line. (Which isn’t the team you posted above)
So you’re trusting Betts – Talbot – Nodl to face the Stamkos/Tavares/Ovechkin/Richards/Parise lines so as to have three scoring lines? Are you giving them 12 even-strength minutes a game – not to mention their PK time – to accomplish that? If that’s your shutdown line, they’re playing a lot more minutes than what most people view as a “fourth-line”, cutting into the ice time of all those above them, but mostly just Read-Schenn, the two players you are accommodating.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are misunderstanding me. What I mean by “shutdown” is not the Mike Richards goes out there and takes the opponents top line. Maybe I should have stated it as a forechecking line, who are solid on defense. I think everyone here can agree that Giroux and sadly Briere will be taking the top lines.
I meant the Read-Schenn-Simmonds line as being a more two way line. Being able to play solid defensively but also to create more offense. I feel like IF Read can show he has some offensive abilities, he should be played on the 3rd line, not the 4th. In this case, Nodl would be on the 4th line.
Gus Supporter.
Well Read should never be on the third line. But Briere should also never play defense, simply because he can’t. He’s terrible at it and the Flyers would lose many, many games if they tried to put Briere in that role.
Your proposal is to have four lines without clear roles. You want all four lines to play two-way hockey, without setting them up to succeed. Read-Schenn-Simmonds is not a strong offensive line, nor is it a strong defensive line. It’s essentially JVR-Giroux-Asham from 09-10 (which wasn’t exactly great).
You would need Briere to play like Carter, which he can’t do, while having JVR play like Gagne, which is optimistic though possible. Basically, you haven’t adjusted for the fact that most players aren’t two-way guys, and they need to be put in positions to succeed.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Read should never be on the fourth line*
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Then what are we arguing about? Flyers played Briere last season against to lines. I agree with you on they shouldn’t do it, but management still does it.
All I was saying is that, if Read shows he can play, he should not be on the 4th line. Fine dont put him on the 3rd with Schenn, play him with Briere or Giroux than.
Unless you think that no matter what Read does he should not make this team out of camp?
Gus Supporter.
Briere was matched up against 3rd liners (8th of 11 for CorsiRelQOC for forwards who played 60+ games for the Flyers) last year for the most part, and had the second easiest zone starts. So no, Briere does not face top lines.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
Does not include playoffs, where he got destroyed playing against top lines.
And yes, it included Mike Richards. Is that your way of saying Briere could/would have faced top competition if Richards wasn’t here? If that’s the case, why was Briere 8th last year, 11th the year before, and 10th in 07-08?
Danny Briere does not succeed if he’s going against the other team’s best.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Im 120% against Briere playing against top lines. I was saying that he SHOULD NOT but might have to this season.
Gus Supporter.
Don handled the Briere part, and I already said Read shouldn’t be on the fourth line.
As far as what Read has to do to make the team, you have to talk about lines.
Briere, Hartnell, Giroux, JVR, Voracek, and Jagr are top-6 players. Simmonds and Schenn have to be in the top-9.
The only way Read plays anywhere other than 3W is with Voracek dropping into that slot:
Hartnell – Briere – Read
JVR – Giroux – Jagr
Voracek – Schenn – Simmonds
Talbot – Betts – Nodl
There is some evidence to suggest Voracek could handle that role, but most evidence suggests he can’t.
Unless you see someone who can come down from the top-6 and play a defensive role alongside Schenn-Simmonds, I don’t see how Read helps this team.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I have the solution to our cap and roster problems:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Jaromir Jagr ($3.300m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($2.250m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.845m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Michael Testwuide ($0.900m)
Ian Laperriere ($1.166m) / Tom Sestito ($0.550m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.737m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.666m) / Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $1,402,500
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,264,762; BONUSES: $1,960,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $2,035,238
(note: this is at best only half serious)
Bob.
uh…
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just throwing lines out there. Maybe Simmonds doesnt play with Schenn. Maybe Read doesnt make the team. My arguement had notthing to do with the actual lines that are going to play out. It was more of the fact of where Read and Nodl would play if both were on the team at the same time.
Gus Supporter.
The one I haven’t stopped hating on is Shelley. Grrrr, Shelley go bye bye please. Then keep all 5 boarderline roster guys (Read, Sestito, Rinaldo, Betts, Nodl) (“boarderline” and “roster”). Even if you argue any of those 5 guys aren’t the greatest, you can’t argue the 5 of them available is much better than just Betts and Nodl and Shelley.
The fact that you lumped Betts and Nodl in as “borderline roster” players with three guys who combined to play 11 NHL games last year is ridiculous.
Further, I don’t know what you are saying I can’t argue with. If you hate Shelley, fine, I do too. What that has to do with Betts, let alone Nodl, I don’t understand.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Nodl I hope he has a good showing tonite. I think he is solid playing wing on 3rd line. Read had a good game but I need to see more to put him ahead of Nodl not too mention I don’t know if Read is capable of playing 3rd line min. He is not a 4th line player so I find it hard to see him making top6 ice time. I guess he is good to have as a spare if there is an injury. Don’t understand the Nodl hate?
What I’m saying by “borderline roster” is I mean that it’s the 5 players that everyone thinks are shuffling around for the last couple spots. I know that’s not the case, and I know I want Betts and Nodl up there, my point is that if Shelley is gone we can not only have the spots for Betts and Nodl, but the other 3 as well.
Since that would not only help our team in keeping Nodl and Betts, two bottom 6 players who have proven themselves at the NHL level as either great penalty killers, faceoff man, or good defensive and offensive winger, it also leaves our roster open for the younger injury callups and interchangeable 13th forward.
That’s what I’m saying. It’s better to have those 5 guys instead of JUST Betts, Nodl, and Shelley. By trading one goon who doesn’t really do anything well besides taking punches, for 3 younger players who will get experience as needed, can fill in roster spots, and can also do the job Shelley does…I’d think that’s a good plan.
Again I wasn’t saying Betts and Nodl are actually borderline, I put it there in quotes, but most people just want to kick them out and call for the younger guys to get in. I was just pointing out we can keep them in their good roles and proper spots on the team since they are good and help us, and then also have the personnel and cap space to carry the extra guys.
I certainly hope that ‘most’ people aren’t expecting Betts to be kicked out or shuffled around; everybody might not appreciate him as much as they should, but no younger guy should be expected to take the type of assignments that Betts does.
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by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 21, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I’m saying and that’s just what I’ve been reading recently. Everyone seems to think these guys are all going to get beaten out without even seeing them all playing at top levels against top competition. I was just displaying a situation that could grant us the best roster possible in just that we had more available than a punching bag off the bench or as a permanent 4th line weight.
Right, but you didn’t even keep Nodl in your top-12. Which is not at all what you’re saying here.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey – I’m with you on questioning Nodl’s role with the squad … do you want defense (Nodl) or offense (Read)? I fall on the Nodl side of the fence, but to each their own. HOWEVER, anyone who questions Blair Betts as a for-real NHL player, and a damn good one at a very reasonable cap hit as well, … you need your head examined. Betts is probably the best-value player on the team (aside from EL contracts), and there sure as hell isn’t anyone that could easily fill his skates on the ice.
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait – just re-read your post.
Nodl and Betts, two bottom 6 players who have proven themselves at the NHL level as either great penalty killers, faceoff man, or good defensive and offensive winger
Sorry for jumping the gun. It’s just that all the WIP fans that constantly call for the team to jettison Betts and Nodl in favor of Stamkos … they drive me mildly insane. Sorry to lump you in there with them just for mentioning their opinions.
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha, no problem. I know I’m confusing, I haven’t really thought out how I want to say what I want so it looks like I’m all over the place.
My point wasn’t to question Nodl or Betts and their spots on the team. They stay. They stay for sure. I was saying get Shelley out of here and then we can add more depth AND keep those two good players in the roles they excel in. Make sense? Didn’t mean to cause the confused uproar with Geoff that it seemed like.
rinaldos goal
was just number 1 on sportscenter top 10 plays
as it should be. The kids got skill, just not controll
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by Cillo stache on Sep 21, 2011 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I was impressed by Bartulis tonight. Forced players wide when they were coming in on a 1-on-1, and he had to deal with at least one or two situations where Matt Walker was essentially a gliding pylon, and made an excellent sliding block where he managed to also push the puck away. I can remember only one really terrible mistake that he made in his own zone, but he recovered quite well and was able to clear the puck off the boards and into center ice.
Wayne Simmonds’s physicality impressed me, too. Size and grit and deflection goals and whatnot.
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3rd line winger
As stated before I am really pulling for a 4th line of Talbot-Betts-Nodl. That would leave the 3rd line as Schenn Simmonds ? competing for that spot is a heap of players, Testuwide, Read, Rinaldo, Wellwood and Sestito. I am not counting Coutier because I don’t think he is going to make the team and should be keep as a Center.
After that game I wasn’t too high on Sestito he is massive but slow in speed and reaction to the play and he would be too far behind dragging down Schenn and Simmonds. The threesome of Testuwide, Read, Rinaldo all out played Wellwood. Testuwide took some dumb penalties but played well when not in the box. But it is too hard to tell at this point he deserves that spot.
Nodl IMO is really good defensively I would like to see the 4th line used like they were when it was Lappy-Betts-Carcillo/Powe. The fourth line got a regular shift more ice time equal to the “3rd line” and faced harder competition with a lot of defensive zone starts. Nodl is well suited for that role IMO.
I’m not sure if that’s using Nodl to his full potential. I think he’s a more complete player than Powe, or your average fourth-liner. We know he has decent offensive capabilities, but it’s like he’s in an eternal struggle with snakebittenness. I guess the question is whether you consider Talbot or Nodl to be more of a fourth-liner, no?
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by Ben Feldman on Sep 21, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Chris is of the opinion that Talbot-Betts-Nodl can handle the Tavares/Stamkos/Ovechkin/Richards/Malkin/Parises of the world.
Based on history, I’m convinced Talbot and Betts can’t, while Nodl needs someone (Simmonds) to do that lifting with him.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Schenn in general was impressive at the little things. Stronger on the boards that expected give his age and offensive talents in particular on the PK. And faceoffs he was really good in the dot. At one point the graphic stated he was 5 for 7 not sure where he finished but he won the draw on the PP that lead to the Simmonds goal and is where he got his assist.
So after one preseason your ready to roll two rookies who have never played the role of shutdown 3rd line in the NHL and move the one guy who can to the 4th line
In general everyone needs to stop equating 3rd line with “shutdown” line. I am guess this line of thinking is a carry over from the NHL video games but there is not reason why Schenn has to see tough minutes as the 3rd line center. He is just another center who cares what the numbers are 1st line 2nd line or 3rd line. Was Gagne-Richards-Knuble the 3rd line? Nope but they saw plenty of tough minutes. The number doesn’t matter. If the Betts line and Schenn both get around 10 minutes ESS TOI I would prefer Betts get the tougher 10 minutes that Schenn and pairing Betts with Talbot and Nodl puts zero rookies in that role. Read/Schenn/Simmonds would just be a 3rd line.
You do realize that the other coach tries to match up lines as well right? They have the option as well its not like we are the only ones who do this. What makes you think with the 3rd line you are chalking in the other coach won’t put their 1st and 2nd lines out there with them??
If the opposing coach wants to match there time line against Schenn who is only going to get to 10 – 12 minutes ESS TOI that is perfectly fine with me. That is going to cut the opposition top line ESS TOI by 50%. I don’t think Schenn and Simmonds regardless of who they are paired with are going to be a complete and utter fail on defense especially if Pronger Carle are out on the D-Line. If an opposing coach really want to exploit the matchups they would be matching up their top line against Briere’s line. Which didn’t happen regularly in the past and against the Briere line you the opposition coach would have to be confident in his top line defensive abilities as well.
It is a simple numbers game your best players get the most TOI and therefore play against the oppositions best players who also get the most TOI. Giroux would see the majority of tough minutes. It is then a matter of having a line to put out there for defensive zone draws the Talbot-Betts-Nodl line should be fine starting in the DZone and is ideal since you don’t want to waste offensive zone starts on any of those players.
So your saying that because I said that a coach would match their top lines with are 3rd that is the only toi that their top lines would see?? I love how you think oppossing coach’s are not as smart as ours. What I am saying is with a third line of two rookies it can be easily exploited. You are also saying our top two lines are logging 20 min of ice time every night. You don’t think that will be the case do you?? You are working on a lot of premises that are not based on what will happen.
This team will have no shutdown line. What it will have is the Giroux and Schenn lines taking the tougher competition to allow Briere easy minutes. Betts et al aren’t capable of doing it for a full game, and putting Read with Schenn will limit their ability to play toughs. Nodl suits better
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by ToddtheFox on Sep 21, 2011 7:17 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions 1 recs
Over the course of the preseason, with all the new posters, I’m sure we can come up with a few more 100 or so.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
And putting Read on the 4th line is a waste skilled Rookies don’t make the team on the 4th line playing limited minutes. If Nodl is up be prepared for Rinaldo, Adam Mair, or Sestito to make the team 4th line.
I don’t understand why Schenn Nodl is better at handling tough minutes compared to Betts Nodl. Betts has experience size and has handled tough minutes before when paired with Lappy and Carcillo of all people. I think Nodl Talbot are more capable defensive tough minute wingers than Lappy Carcillo. And you don’t have to worry about throwing a rookie in Schenn to the wolves with excessive tough assignments.
Simmonds-Schenn-Read or whoever shouldn’t be a complete failure and a major liability defensively especially compared to the other option of Rinaldo-Betts-Talbot 4th line.
Not putting Nodl on the 4th line leaves the team with a useless 4th line just like last year and the lineup is not nearly as balanced. That 4th line wouldn’t get a regular shift and will most likely have other players rotating in on the Shelly/Rinaldo spot every other shift or so.
This is the exact same situation the team was in last year a complete waste of a 4th line seeing only 6 minutes of ESS TOI. And the 4th line sucked as a result. Carcillo-Betts-Lappy was hugh asset in 2009-2010 and with all 3 players finishing in the top 5 of CorsiRelQualcomp.
In 2010-2011 Betts-Carcillo-Shelly were the 3 worst on the team CorsiRelQualComp the only 3 players with a negative number. Powe was able to earn 0.167 him slightly ahead of defensive masters Hartnell, Leino and Zherdev.
I am pretty sure the reason the team went out and traded Powe and overpay for Talbot was to make the 4th line effective again. And not just be wasted roster space reserved for PK specialists and a goon with a heart of gold.
Carcillo-Betts-Lappy was hugh asset in 2009-2010 and with all 3 players finishing in the top 5 of CorsiRelQualcomp.
Lappy was 7th. Carcillo played with those two only 36% of the time. And both Lappy and Betts had -16.1 CorsiRels.
They were an asset, but they weren’t nearly as important as you say they were. Especially since they weren’t the fourth line long – Carcillo played with Richards and Gagne – nor did they get even 10 minutes of even-strength ice time.
They weren’t what you make them out to be at all. Further, Talbot-Betts doesn’t need Nodl to equal Carcillo/Betts/Lappy.
Ben Holmstrom could do that.
But yeah, read Todd’s comment again.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
More importantly, why would anyone want that line getting over 10 minutes of even strength ice time a game. That’s at least 2 minutes a game I’d rather divide up between Giroux or Briere depending on who’s on the ice for the other team. Sure it was a nice line, but one, they were never facing the other team tops line, that was Richards job in 09/10, and two, as you say Geoff, their results were less than outstanding.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
Right.
I’m all for replacing Shelley and using the fourth line against 2nd/3rd line competition for 8-10 minutes a night. But you still need another line to take on the 1st/2nd line competition, and Nodl/Simmonds are the best ones to do that. Talbot and Betts can’t take on 1st/2nd.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree (and feel vaguely dirty for saying so), but I still wonder if Schenn really can handle that job. I am confident that Talbot/Betts/Sestito can deal with 2nd-line competition, and that Nodl and Simmonds can match up with first-liners, but what about Schenn? He’s still unproven in ANY role, let alone the one that Jeff Carter used tobreak into the NHL. (Yep – Jeff. Not Richie. Check your history books, younglings.)
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
The Betts line won’t see a ton of 2nd liners, that will probably be Schenn, with Giroux getting more 1st lines. But I would say Schenn will see some as well. The Betts line will spot fill against 2nd lines some I’m sure though. If I were to guess at least. Giroux is the one center on the team really used to seeing 1st line competition while also being a skilled forward.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
I am confident that Talbot/Betts/Sestito can deal with 2nd-line competition
Why? Talbot has never beaten third liners, let alone second. Sestito hasn’t shown he’s an NHL fourth liner, let alone one who can tread water, or even beat, second liners. And Betts has shown that he can be serviceable – while still not beating – second liners.
What do you base your confidence on?
that Nodl and Simmonds can match up with first-liners, but what about Schenn? He’s still unproven in ANY role, let alone the one that Jeff Carter used tobreak into the NHL. (Yep – Jeff. Not Richie. Check your history books, younglings.)
We agree. Which is why I don’t understand your confidence in Talbot playing over his head, Betts playing over his head, and Sestito doing anything of value. Schenn is unproven, but when you have two guys you know can handle it, it’s a lot easier to say everybody thinks Schenn can handle it, let’s find out.
But what Don said is even more true. Giroux will be leaned on heavily to take on those minutes, while Nodl/Simmonds will also be leaned on heavily. Betts/Talbot will see some time, but they won’t be very good at it, nor should they be forced to play people they aren’t able to defend.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
See – and I wasted my answer above. Where’s your proof that Talbot is ‘worse’ than Nodl at defending? And including Sestito – my god, man, anyone is better than Jody Shelley. Your argument against picks on that??? Chill.
Just upon what statistic do you base your assertion that Giroux is going to get those assignments? (Sure, we agree that Briere is a defensive liability- no stat needed.) G’s QualComp is the same as Talbot’s for all intents and purposes (-0.027 vs. -0.025). Sure, his Corsi is higher – but Corsi is related to shot totals, not goals-against. In fact, Giroux’s CorsiRelQoC was nearly the same as Nodl’s last year, while carrying a four-fold increase in CorsiRelQoT. So was Giroux sheltered???
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
In fact, Giroux’s CorsiRelQoC was nearly the same as Nodl’s last year, while carrying a four-fold increase in CorsiRelQoT. So was Giroux sheltered???
No, facing nearly the same competition as the defensive forward who was basically tied for the toughest assignments on the team is not being sheltered. Here’s how I rank the assignments last year:
Carter and Nodl faced top competition in their own end.
Giroux faced top competition with balanced zone starts.
Richards and JvR faced second line competition with balanced zone starts.
Others faced third lines in the offensive zone or fourth lines in the defensive zone.
@BSH_EricT
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Maybe I don’t get it. If Nodl and Giroux faced similar competition as measured by CorsiRelQoC, but Giroux had much better linemates as measured by CorsiRelQoT, that means Nodl had much tougher assignments, since he got far less help from his linemates. No?
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The difference between being a Corsi Rel QoT of 2.1 and 1.7 is much smaller than the difference between offensive zone starts of 43.8% and 49.2%. Especially when the person with the slightly stronger teammates also faced slightly stronger competition.
@BSH_EricT
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THAT I will grant you. Don’t get me wrong – Nodl is definitely a better defensive forward than Talbot; I never actually said he wasn’t. What I am arguing is that the difference between their abilities isn’t as expansive as Geoff seems to imply.
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
When you start arguing over how much I seem to imply someone is better than someone else, you’re going so far down into the hole that I don’t care to follow you.
I have no idea what you think I seem to be implying, nor how you characterize the difference in skill level I present. If you wish to engage in a semantic argument about how you perceive my implications, I won’t join you.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
How is this semantics? It’s pretty self-explanatory …
you still need another line to take on the 1st/2nd line competition, and Nodl/Simmonds are the best ones to do that. Talbot and Betts can’t take on 1st/2nd.
You pretty clearly say that Nodl is that much better than Talbot and Betts. Did I miss something?
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by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
How is it semantics?
What I am arguing is that the difference between their abilities isn’t as expansive as Geoff seems to imply.
You aren’t arguing that I’m wrong, you’re arguing that you perceive my implication to be too large. If you wish to dispute the conclusions I drew, the same ones Eric has recited numerous times, by all means.
But you aren’t arguing against my conclusions, you’re arguing against me.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 22, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow – now THAT is semantics.
You are wrong. There, I said it. Talbot has been proven to handle 2nd/3rd line competition with worse teammates than Nodl.
Can I make that more clear somehow?
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Since you contradict this statement below, there’s no need for me to even respond again.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 22, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and I will point out where Eric found that Talbot can (and does) handle 2nd/3rd line competition with far worse teammates than Nodl. See commentary elsewhere in thread.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually Eric showed he faced them with poor linemates and poor results. So I wouldn’t say “can and does handle” them, but more so faces them with poor linemates and poor results.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
Exactly. My conclusion from the data is:
- Talbot has never beaten good competition
- Talbot has played mostly with bad linemates
- It is unknown whether Talbot could beat good competition with good linemates
- Nodl has beaten good competition with good linemates, and has done it from difficult zone starts
Geoff’s original statement that you objected to was “Talbot has never shown the ability to beat third line opposition.” I think the data supports that, and supports the claim that Nodl has.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
1) Talbot has not consistently ‘beaten’ good competition as measured by zone starts/finish. Agreed, but clarified.
2) Talbot has mostly played wih bad teammates, except for some time spent last season on top-2 lines when the rest of the team was SOL. Agreed.
3) It is unknown whether Talbot can ‘beat’ good competition with better teammates. Agreed – can’t really argue that one, as it is pure hypothesis.
4) Nodl has ‘beaten’ good competition, and done so with considerably better linemates than Talbot, and has been successful at it. Yep – agreed again.
I am NOT discounting Nodl. He’s not my favorite, but he obviously is a pretty good defensive forward. I wish he was more like Mikael Handzus, in providing the offense as well (at 24 years old, Hands had 45 assists that year), but he surely is a good defensive forward by all statistical measures.
I am saying that there is no evidence that Talbot cannot perform equally well against slightly lesser competition – which is what Geoff originally said:
Betts/Talbot will see some time, but they won’t be very good at it, nor should they be forced to play people they aren’t able to defend.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I am saying that there is no evidence that Talbot cannot perform equally well against slightly lesser competition – which is what Geoff originally said:
So now I have to argue that he is incapable of facing worse competition with better results? That’s not my claim, so why is it my responsibility to argue it?
In the past three years, Talbot has lost to third line competition. Whether you judge it based on zone shift or Corsi, he’s lost. Which was my claim.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 22, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm … I suppose at this point in the argument this degree of distinction is important. I don’t really think that the results for Talbot are ‘poor’ – the variance isn’t significant other than zone starts. Perhaps I am looking at them in consideration of the dependent variable of rotten linemates though.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s fine, I just don’t like “handled” being put out there, especially if you consider balanced zone shift and balanced Corsi (to me that’s a very telling sign that he hasn’t done well). But if you think he can do it here with Schenn and Simmonds, or whoever, then that’s fine (the whole crappy linemates it’s a completely valid point here), I’d just prefer him more in an energy role, and play someone who I feel is more proven in a defensive role with Schenn and Simmonds soI feel more comfortable with them taking on 2nd liners , freeing up Briere’s line. But now I’m morphing the discussion, but I figured I’d give you my 2 cents because why not right.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
And I absolutely agree with you. Talbot is a good 4th liner, and a marginal 3rd liner. I’d much rather see Nodl on the third line (if it is intended as a shutdown line). But in that case, on home ice the fourth line will be matched against 2nd/3rd line competition about half the time, to create preferential matchups for the Flyers’ top lines. My argument was (from the start) that a Talbot-Betts-? (Read? Wellwood?) could take that 2nd/3rd competition effectively – that is, ‘handle’. I mean, Betts’ OZone start is not even 27%, but he finished there 44% of the time – forward movement 17% of the time (assuming that this is a valid way of measuring this). Geoff says Carter is ‘elite’ for doing it 8% of the time. Blair Betts is the MAN!!! :)
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 22, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Just FYI, the simple zone shift measure (finish percent minus start percent) doesn’t work out very well because there’s a much bigger spread on starts than on finishes, so people with low OZS% will always have positive zone shifts and people with high OZS% will always have negative zone shifts.
The measure to use is balanced zone shifts, which compares the player against the results of others who were used similarly. I summarized the whole evolution of the stat in this article, which also links to the original pieces.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Fair point indeed, sir. As you know, I am but a casual dabbler in these ‘stats’ and not an expert – especially since some of them are beyond the pale in passing my smell test. But I am also (I hope) always willing to listen to reasonable corrections/objections like this.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 23, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Eric linked you to balanced zone shifts. I would take a look there. Basically the lower your OZone starts the bigger you expect the margin to be for the finishes, that’s why it’s helpful to compare similarly deployed players as Eric explains.
The way I see everything shaking out, and you know I’m wrong a lot about predicting lines, is G’s line taking mostly 1st line comp, Schenn (with Nodl & Simmonds) taking mostly 2nd, Briere’s line taking on 3rd lines, with the occasional 1st or 2nd in the Ozone, and Betts taking 3rd and 4th lines, with maybe 2nd/1st when in the Ozone if the tops lines need a rest after a PP. To me that makes the most sense for home game strategy. I also don’t see Read being wasted on the 4th line. To me Read is fighting for a spot on Briere’s wing. I see hime either making it there or spending a year in the AHL. Remember when Kyle Calder lit it up in the preseason with Richards and Carter, he didn’t do so good in the regular season. I don’t want to get ahead of myself with him. I see Rinaldo/Sestito on that 4th line, with Holmstrom spotting from ADK.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
Ha – we’re all often wrong about predicting line combinations, especially in the Laviolette era. That said, your home-ice matchups make sense to me. Sure, you’ll try to get Betts’ line against 4th-liners sometimes, but then you also try to jump Briere or G out against them as well. In that instance, you’ll find the inverse may happen – the next available line may well be Betts’ to run out against 2nd-line competition.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 23, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and I agree that Sestito or Rinaldo are more likely contenders for the 4th line, although I wouldn’t complain about seeing Holmstrom or Testyweed there. I just wonder if there’s any opening in the higher wings for Read – with Jagr, Voracek, JVR, and Hartnell already on the team, there’s not much space for scoring wingers.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 23, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Where’s your proof that Talbot is ‘worse’ than Nodl at defending?
Last year, Talbot faced 2nd/3rd line competition in the offensive zone and finished with a negative Corsi Rel and BZS. The two years before that, he faced 3rd and 4th line competition and finished with a negative Corsi Rel and BZS.
Last year, Nodl faced top line competition in the defensive zone and finished with a neutral Corsi Rel and positive BZS. This is clearly a better result.
Undoubtedly the teammates are having an influence here, and it’s possible that Talbot would’ve looked like a positive player if he’d played with Staal more. We can’t know that for sure, but we know two things: 1) Pittsburgh has never been willing to put Talbot on Staal’s defensive line for some reason (he’s gotten more time with Crosby and Malkin), and 2) the lines that Talbot was on didn’t win the play.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Sep 21, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wasn’t asking YOU, smarty pants.
But I could easily hypothesize that Talbot didn’t play on Staal’s line because he wasn’t needed there (rings hollow, but who the hell knows, right?). Heck, Staal himself was out about half of the season, no?
However, how are we defining ‘top-line’ and 2nd/3rd line? Maybe that’s my confusion – is there some price-point (so to speak) that defines top-line or not competition? I would have thought that with the same CorsiRelQoC means you played similar competition, in rough terms.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
However, how are we defining ‘top-line’ and 2nd/3rd line? Maybe that’s my confusion – is there some price-point (so to speak) that defines top-line or not competition?
I don’t think there’s a well-established right-and-wrong way to do this. I tend to think of .8ish being the top opponents, .5ish being second line, .2ish being third line, and negatives as being fourth line. I also look at team rank as part of it.
Nodl was over .8 and second on the team, so that’s pretty clearly top competition. Talbot was at .45 and 6th/12 last year, -.17 and 11/14 the year before, and .25 and 11/14 the year before that.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
If that’s the case, how do you get a CorsiRelQoT (like G’s) of 2.056? His linemates were Gretzky and Crosby? Or is there a different scale for QoT?
But regardless, thanks for the answer. It does help.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The spread on quality of teammates is larger than the spread on quality of competition.
Every shift Giroux takes will be with top-6-caliber linemates. Not every shift he takes will be against top-6-caliber opponents.
Plus, the player’s own skills affect the measure of his teammates — a guy who plays with Giroux a lot will probably have good numbers in part because he played with Giroux — which is why I don’t reference teammate measures nearly as often as competition measures.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ah – I suppose that’s true … although I do wonder about the reflexive (or even reflective) properties of such relative statistics. The basis of the cause-and-effect is pairings by a coach who may only do so by ‘feel’ and ‘instinct’ or ‘chemistry’ … bet that makes Geoff pee the bed at night.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Sep 21, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Todd’s comment Nodl would improve the Schenn line in tough situation but then what do you do with the 4th line. All I was trying to say was
Read/Testuwide/whoever-Schenn-Simmonds and Talbot-Betts-Nodl gives 2 lines that are somewhat capable versus Nodl-Schenn-Simmonds and Rinaldo-Betts-Talbot which only makes for one competent line.
I would like to at least to try it my way before I moved Nodl up and see if it would work because I think my lines gives a deeper more capable lineup lines 1 – 4.
The best of both worlds would be double shifting Nodl depending on situation. Offensive zone starts on the Schenn line put in Read or whoever cracks the lineup and for DZone starts or starts against number 1 lines put Nodl up there.
I am that confident in Nodl defensively that he should become a defensive workhorse. I am also that confident in his offensive abilities that I don’t want him even thinking about trying to score goals.
Rinaldo Betts and Talbot is a perfectly capable 4th line. There are only so many ES minutes to go around, you aren’t going to be giving a 4th line 10+ minutes of ES time. Beside Nodl himself is not enough to make that line good enough to face 1st liners. All you’ve done is weaken Schenn’s line defensively enough to make them a liability against 2nd lines, and improve Betts line enough to make them sound enough defensively to go against 2nd liners but provide no offense. I don’t need a 4th line getting big minutes, and I don’t need them facing 2nd line competition, especially when there are better options.
You sir are a gentleman of four outs!
by DLJr on Sep 21, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thank you.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Schenn played very well and did good in the faceoff circle in ONE preseason game. Against the Maple Leaf’s who where not the Leafs that will be on the ice game 1 but had a lot of starters out there. I like Schenn think he will be great but lets put him in a position to be great not in one where next year this time you have him on the fourth line.
I am guess reply fail. But that line IMO could be Talbot-Betts-Nodl. But in general the tough minutes are going to be shared around. Based on the playoffs last season Lavy likes to roll the forward lines with the exception of sheltered the Briere line and play the matchup game with the D-pairings. Vorachek looked pretty good in the defensive end to my surprise. Maybe Leino was the real defensive weak link on the LBH line?
I don’t think you can pin it all on Leino. The previous year was mostly Briere & Hartnell with Carter, and they still weren’t exactly a defensive line even though I don’t think they were sheltered as extensively. If Carter couldn’t quite carry them, I doubt putting someone like Voracek there is enough to offset all of the liabilities.
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by DragonGirl0583 on Sep 21, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
This shutout brought to you by the spirit of Bobrovsky fishie.
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Oskars Bartulis and company didn’t really stand out as horrible.
When has Wolf ever stood out as horrible? Are we talking about the same Wolf?
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Bartulis -0.377 CorsiRelQualcomp in 2009-2010 was 6th ranked and drastically worse than Coburn’s 0.224. Not to mention Krejchek finished the season higher.
Good lord, worse than Krejchek? Your competition for him is as imaginary as Bartulis himself.
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by Ben Rothenberg on Sep 21, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Krajicek’s numbers are skewed because of his time in TB. It’s best to leave out players who split the season on different teams.
But in either event, Bartulis wasn’t good in 09-10.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Sep 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Geez…I pick a night not to stay up to 3 a.m. to watch a game and we get a shutout. Figures.
More seriously, though, it’s good to see a zero on the opponent’s side of the scoreboard for once. Let’s hope this new habit (I hope it’s a developing habit, anyway) continues into the regular season. It was good to read all the thoughts of those who watched the game. I’ll be back to watching games at ungodly hours when the regular season begins. Go Flyers.
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by Orange and Black Forever on Sep 21, 2011 5:36 AM EDT reply actions
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