Flyers vs. Wild preview: Wasn't Minnesota good? Oh, right, they're Minnesota...
by Travis Hughes on Jan 17, 2012 12:06 PM EST
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7 p.m. tonight
Wells Fargo Center
TV: CSN Philly, FS North
RADIO: 94 WIP
TICKETS: Starting at $31
Yeah, I have a feeling that headline might make some Wild fans angry...
For much of the 2011-12 NHL season thus far, the Minnesota Wild have been that ignored team. Much like the Dallas Stars were a year ago as they climbed towards the top of the standings, the Wild have been disrespected and written off as a team that was surely going to come back to earth -- just like the Stars did a year ago, ultimately missing the playoffs.
The Wild were supposed to be different. A fresh new coach in Mike Yeo, a notable offseason with acquisitions in Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, and a goalie tandem that played phenomenal hockey through the first 30 games of the season were to keep them afloat. After all, teams might be able to keep up a strong start through 10 or 15 games, but by the 30th game, we start to see the real character of a team. We had seen the real character of the Minnesota Wild.
Maybe we'd seen their character, but winning consistently takes more than character, you know?
Like clockwork, the Wild came back to reality. Those hot goalies who had combined for the unsustainably high save percentage early in the year? They've fallen back to their typical career numbers. The offense was never all that strong or deep to begin with. They've had injuries, sure, to Setoguchi and surprisingly super-valuable Guillaume Latendresse, and over the weekend they learned that they'd be without captain Mikko Koivu for at least a few weeks.
Those injuries have only sped up the downward spiral. Since reeling off a seven-game win streak between November 28 and December 10, at the height of their ascent, the Wild have completely fallen apart. Two wins, nine regulation losses, four overtime or shootout losses. Koivu missed just four of those games, Latendresse 13 and Setoguchi 10, but the latter has since returned to the lineup. Injuries are certainly not fully to blame here, unless they're relying that much on Guillaume Laten-freakin-dresse.
They have taken their toll on the Wild, and they're not a team that's deep enough to handle them at all, unlike some other teams you may be familiar with. We don't yet have the full picture of the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild season, but in all likelihood, they're somewhere in the middle -- not as bad as they've been recently (obviously) but not nearly as good as they were early in the season, either.
Luckily for the Flyers, the Wild enter South Philadelphia playing some absolutely dreadful hockey, and considering the orange and black aren't putting in their best work of the year right now, that's a welcome sight.
According to the writers at the morning skate today, Ilya Bryzgalov will get the start for the Flyers against one of the worst scoring teams in the NHL. Zac Rinaldo got hit with a puck in practice over the weekend and will be out tonight, according to Paul Holmgren and the Flyers. That means Jody Shelley finds his way back into the lineup as James van Riemsdyk remains in street clothes with a concussion.
Full projected lineups:
Hartnell - Orange Jesus - Jags
Talbot - Danny Boy - Voracek
Read - Juicy - Wayne Train
Scrabble - Schenn - Shelley
Kimmo - Coburn
Carle - Bourdon
Gus - Mez
Mike Russo of the Minneapolis Whatever-Times-Tribune-Something reports that it'll be Josh Harding in nets for the Wild tonight. As mentioned above, he had a good start but has come back to earth along with the rest of his team. Two wins in 50 days will do that to you, I suppose. Lines are via Russo as well:
Heatley - Cullen - Johnson
Powe - Brodziak - Setoguchi
Clutterbuck - Peters - McIntyre
Staubitz - McMillan - Wellman
Zidlicky - Schultz
Falk - Spurgeon
Lundin - Stoner
Game thread will be up around 5 p.m. Tonight's one of those games where people laugh at you if you lose, so the Flyers should probably win. It's not gonna be pretty if Ilya Bryzgalov has a bad game, though...
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Angry?
Nah. We’re well past being angry. We’ve resigned ourselves to bitterness and just not caring anymore, as well as trying to find the best way to make fun of the situation.
They’ve had injuries, sure, to Setoguchi and surprisingly super-valuable Guillaume Latendresse, and over the weekend they learned that they’d be without captain Mikko Koivu for at least a few weeks.
Also: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Koivu once before, Casey Wellman, Latendresse once before, Marek Zidlicky, Justin Falk, Niklas Backstrom, Josh Harding…
The injuries didn’t just speed the downward spiral, they caused it. They were cruising along just fine until the injuries just got to be too much. Only so far your AHL team can carry you in the NHL. It was a good ride. Saying they were set up to fall is fine, but they didn’t, right up until the injuries took five of their top six, their top d-man, and both goalies.
Just so we’re clear on our side of the story. Ha ha. Looking forward to watching a good team tonight. It’s been awhile.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
As opposed to the Flyers, who have had injuries to most of their top six, have lost their top defenseman for the year, and have a roster that’s 25% rookie skaters. Hold on a minute; I need to restring the world’s smallest violin for you.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 12:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Whoa, killer.
Now now, I wasn’t complaining. Wasn’t belittling the Flyers’ situation at all. Just offering the info.
The rookie thing sounds ultimately familiar, as the Wild have skated with (I believe) 35 different players this year. The biggest difference? Your fill in players weren’t picked by Doug Risebrough and Tommy Thompson.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
we’re a bit sensitive round here these days
"Start playing with some jam in here"
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jan 17, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I’m also at work (on lunch break). That usually makes me a wee bit cranky.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 12:35 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I hate work. I don’t think I’m going to go anymore.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I just keep reminding myself that work pays for fun.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 12:41 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
And food. Food is wonderful.
I heart our rookies.
"Who's more crazy? Who's more...weird?"
by LeepinLizardz on Jan 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Food is too wonderful. I need to get back into the gym.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 12:50 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Don’t worry man, the Wild will be much better next year when they land Zach Parise in free agency. Also I think you should go with Harding as your #1 and trade Backstrom to the lightning for a roster player and a pick.
Good luck, you Minnesotans deserve a better hockey team, but with a promising young coach and some very skilled prospects coming up the Wild are gonna be right in thick of things for many years to come. In my opinion this year is just a sign of how close this team really is.
Backstrom has a NMC (Thanks Riser). Not sure is is going to be willing to waive it to go anywhere. The guy loves Minnesota (the state, not the team) and his personality is one that seems more intent on just maintaining the status quo. However, if they could trade Backstrom rather than Harding, I would be on board for that. Just as good, if not better, at 1/6 the price.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Ah ok I didn’t think to look if he a no move. I was more thinking along the lines of him getting a bit older and having a large contract as opposed to the younger and cheaper and quite possibly better Harding, just like you said. I just see him as being the kind of guy stevie Y would be looking for.
When the subject is brought up it seems the only 2 names that ever come up are Bernier and Schneider. Which I really don’t not understand. Schneider absolutely but Bernier has not shown enough to warrant any drastic move to aquire him, at least in my opinion. How Bobrovsky, Rask, and Harding aren’t talked about more I’ll never understand. Theres even an argument that Steve Mason is a more deserved trade subject that Bernier.
I think people, for better or worse, under value backup goalies. It’s almost like there is a feeling that if you weren’t good enough to take the top spot when you came into the league, you aren’t ever going to be. Like development doesn’t matter. It’s bizarre.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I prefer to think of them in the same way as second-line centers. Everyone knows they’re valuable.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 17, 2012 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
BTW, a question about this statistics-related argument (of which I am agnostic):
If a number of NHL experts – former players, coaches and managers – had been saying this year that the Wild were not as good as their record – “Their goalies are going to have to come back to earth and they’re just not proficient enough on offense” – would you be objecting as much?
In other words, is your primary peeve that the decline is injury-related and people are getting it wrong, or is it about who is saying it and how they got there?
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 17, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I have said time and time again, I have zero issue with the stats. None at all. My problem is that when people use stats, it ends there. They don’t seem to care what the reasons on the ice are for those stats.
I also have no problem with the stats saying they are playing better than the numbers say they should be. I have a problem with headlines like “Oilers play the worst team in the league” while their record said otherwise.
I could care less who it is coming from. When the only reason given is a bunch of numbers, that in my education and working life have been shown to be able to be manipulated to say anything you want them to, it bores me to no end. The difference between former pros, etc and a pure stat based argument is that the pros, coahces, etc would give reasons why it is going to happen, rather than getting out a white board and writing some accounting formulas and quick ratios.
The numbers said the Wild suck while they were winning. The numbers didn’t change. The players on the ice changed. Yet, it is all about the numbers. Would the numbers have changed if everyone stayed healthy? Maybe. Would the team have started losing? Maybe.
The point is, the predictions said one thing would happen, and something totally different happened. The fact that the end result was the same means they get to claim victory. It makes no sense. If you predict a car will crash because they are running out of gas, and the car crashes because a drunk pulled out in front of them, you did not predict what will happen.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I don’t think a player, coach, or manager would have been able to give a reason why the goalies would have to come back to earth, except that they always do.
Nobody knows why players run hot and cold, so we chalk it up to random chance.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Or, they would give an intangible reason (he’s dialed in right now, etc) that is not very descriptive. It may be true, but if it won’t last, it doesn’t matter that mental states can temporarily inflate the play of a goaltender.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
by Snevik on Jan 17, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In the first 30 games, the Wild save percentage was .936. In the last 15, it’s .914. Is that because of injuries to the forwards?
And Koivu’s only missed four of these 15 games, right? Didn’t they lose three straight before he went down and six of eight since he came back — including all four that he and Seto both played?
I understand that injuries made the team worse, but I just don’t see how you can look at the dramatic decline of the goalie save percentages from near-record levels to something pretty close to their career average and say the dropoff is all because of the forward injuries.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
He doesn’t say it was just injuries to forwards, he mentions Zidlicky ( by far their best dman) and both goalies. Not that I’m necessarily agreeing with him just pointing that out.
Yeah, but we’re talking about the last 15 games and whether the downturn was caused by injuries.
Harding and Backstrom started all of those 15. Zidlicky missed one of them — in fact, his return from the injury basically coincided with this losing streak.
They’ve had a lot of injuries this year, but guys being out while they were winning doesn’t exactly support the claim that the team got worse because of injuries.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Sure it does. Zidlicky missed time, had no chance to get back up to speed, and was thrown in and expected to be Marek Zidlicky. Instead, we got Martin Skoula. During these 15 games, they lost Koivu for four, Setoguchi was out for most of them, Bouchard played but shouldn’t have after the Bogosian hit. Latendresse was gone by then, I believe. Wellman was injured for (I believe) 8 of those games, and still hasn’t returned to form.
You are discounting the impact these players make on the defensive side of the puck, again, save for Setoguchi. Koivu was not playing at 100% (no one should be at this point, right?). Bouchard playing with a fuzzy head. Wellman playing on the fourth line due to a sore wrist that limits his shooting ability… it all adds up.
The losing streak coincided with a tipping point with injury fill-ins. There are only so many fill-ins that can play, until things just break down.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
You are discounting the impact these players make on the defensive side of the puck, again
I’m really not, but their defensive role is much more about possession than shot quality. Did Wellman’s limited shooting ability cause the opponents to get to the slot?
You can look up save percentages with a guy on or off the ice, and you’ll see that no forward consistently drives save percentage down. Even if you reject that claim, Bouchard has one of the lowest on-ice save percentages on the team (and did last year too, so it’s not the fuzzy head hypothesis). Koivu was mediocre at it last year. The last time Latendresse played more than half the games, he was mediocre at it. So even if you believe forwards influence goaltender save percentage, the ones the Wild lost don’t seem to be particularly good at it — certainly not responsible for a .936.
The losing streak coincided with a tipping point with injury fill-ins. There are only so many fill-ins that can play, until things just break down.
I agree with this. Obviously, the Wild aren’t a 2-13 team in the long run; they’ve had some bad luck and more than their share of injuries that made this stretch worse than anyone expected (statheads included).
Honestly, I don’t think the differences between your take and the statguys’ was that different early on — one side was saying “I don’t think they’re the best team in the league, but they’ll finish 6th or 8th” while the other side was saying “they’ve banked a lot of points in this hot stretch but aren’t that good; they’ll finish 8th or 9th”. That’s a large difference in tone and a small difference of opinion, IMO.
It was only when you did that post on how other teams that were #1 at that point in the season did and said they’d finish no worse than 4th that the opinions really diverged.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Here’s where I jump ship. You have all the answers, and nothing I say will convince you. I am not trying to argue your stats are wrong, yet you keep telling me I am. Injuries have no impact on the way a team plays, that’s my lesson from you, I guess. All the players on the team are mediocre, and no one plays the game the way you want them to. Which is fine.
My posts about the stats had absolutely nothing to do with this conversation. I quit talking about the stats when I realized it does me no good to do so. I never said they would finish no lower than fourth. I said I think they finish fourth. Big difference. One is something that would need to be supported by proof. The other was my opinion, should they continue to play the way they were. They didn’t continue to play the way they were. They got hurt and quit on themselves.
But you don’t want the reasons. You just want to look at the numbers and assign a reason to them, rather than give the guy who watches them 82 games a year and talks with the players the benefit of the doubt. Again, not saying your numbers are wrong.
By the way… how did Bouchard have a poor on-ice save % last year? He played one game. One. Never mind. I’m out. Enjoy the game.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Injuries have no impact on the way a team plays, that’s my lesson from you, I guess.
That’s a strange reply to
I agree with this. Obviously, the Wild aren’t a 2-13 team in the long run; they’ve had some bad luck and more than their share of injuries that made this stretch worse than anyone expected (statheads included).
I never said they would finish no lower than fourth. I said I think they finish fourth. Big difference.
Actually, what you said is:
I now think they will finish in the top four in the league.
In any event, my point stands — that’s when you increased your optimism and widened the gap with the statheads’ view, which had previously been more of a gap in tone than prediction.
By the way… how did Bouchard have a poor on-ice save % last year? He played one game. One.
That was ’09-10. He played 59 games last year. Sometimes the stats are better than memory.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Well, that too. Injuries to Zidlicky, Falk, Stoner, Lundin, Zanon, Scandella… all d-men. I think the only d-man that hasn’t missed time is Schultz.
Backstrom has missed a fair amount of time either hurt or injured. Harding has missed more than enough as well. Hackett performed admirably in his fill in, but he is not quite ready for prime time, yet.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Are you arguing that the Wild have had a lot of injuries this year or that the injuries caused the slide? Because you’re naming a lot of injuries that don’t coincide with this slide.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
That’s because you are assuming that when a player comes back, they are automatically back to themselves. And yes, the injuries may not coincide to the day with the day the slide started, but you really want me to believe they don’t have a long term impact? Players get injured, come back, and are just instantly better? The constant swapping out of players has no impact on chemistry or team attitude?
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
The Flyers have lost time from Giroux, Jagr, Briere, Read, van Riemsdyk, Pronger, Coburn, Rinaldo, Schenn, Lilja, Gustafsson, Bryzgalov, and Betts due to injury. Yeah, when a guy is freshly back from injury, he might not be at 100%, but lots of guys aren’t at 100% during a season.
And let’s not forget that the Wild were winning through several of these injuries. So your argument is that all of those injuries to Zidlicky and Backstrom and Harding and Latendresse and whoever else early in the season didn’t cost them then, but created some sort of lingering chemistry issue that suddenly caused the team to fall apart when those guys came back and other guys got hurt.
I don’t buy the long-term-impact hypothesis. Lots of teams are constantly swapping out players, and yeah, it has some effect, but it’s not the difference between #1 in the league and missing the playoffs.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t buy the long-term-impact hypothesis.
Which is fine. You don’t have to. No reason to have an explanation to the change in numbers, just so long as the numbers line up with what you want to see.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Prove that it is statistically correlative to the change in numbers, that it explains more of the change than the regression to the mean of the players on the ice, and then you’ll be explaining the reason. Right now, there’s an established narrative from the “anti-stat” camp (the Wild are a top 4 team), and an explanation crafted to fit that narrative with no supporting evidence (our injuries are the primary reason they’re slipping). Prove an explanatory correlation, or it’s just an anecdotal narrative.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 3:33 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
I don't do stats
So if you want statistical correlation, call someone else. I watch the games, I see the way the team changes, and know for a fact that is why they changed. I don’t live in the Matrix, and I don’t use numbers to build my argument outside of when I am required to by my boss. I have seen it. My proof is on the ice, and in the video. If you want me to go back and build a stat based argument so you can understand it, I want you to go back and watch the last 6 seasons of Wild hockey so you can understand it the way I do.
Fair? You let me know when you’re done, and I’ll get you my stats.
Call it anecdotal if you must give it a label. I know these things because I have seen them happen. I know they are true because I was there. Not sure what you want to label it as, but that is how I know it to be true.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
I watch the games, I see the way the team changes, and know for a fact that is why they changed.
I find this terrifying.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
No kidding.
I will never understand why some people think their eyes which are taking in hundreds of independent events in 2-and-a-half hours and their memory of said events tell a better, more truthful story than statistical analysis, which uses objective data taken from these independent events, trends, and principles to analyze a game which we all love.
Now I can understand if some people have an issue with the way some stat people come across. Very smart people can have sanctimonious tones, even if what the actual content of what they are saying is in fact, accurate. Hell, I know I come across that way a lot of the time when I am arguing stats. That’s why I stayed out of this argument, because Eric is not only smarter than me and has access to more data than me (or at least has a better knowledge of accessing data than me), but he gets his point across in a much less condescending tone than myself.
But like you said, to straight out say that watching the game tells you everything is terrifying, and may explain why some people feel a condescending tone is necessary.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I want you to go back and watch the last 6 seasons of Wild hockey so you can understand it the way I do.
I don’t think you do. Todd offered to track scoring chance data by going back and watching video from this year; I don’t believe that offer was received well. I get the impression you only want people to go back and watch video if they will see exactly what you want them to see; though maybe that’s why you added the qualifier, “so you can understand it the way I do.”
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
That’s why he said 6 seasons worth, trying to make it too large a task so you won’t do it.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
That’s funny because that seems like a lot of work, especially since this (link to quote below) was a response to the effort of going back and tracking scoring chances I watch the games.
I hear the coach. What he says is true. Why do I need to spend three hours of my life to prove what I just saw happen? Sounds like time I could spend with my kids, or some other valued activity. Like carving the alphabet into my forehead.
I know I don’t trust my eyes or memory enough to recall 6 years worth of information, hell I don’t trust them enough to recall half a season’s events worth of information. If someone is willing to go back and review the tape in an attempt to confirm what we are being told and what we think we are seeing, I’d take it. But then again, I like to always have back up and I’m a cynic so I feel that coaches may say things that aren’t 100% true (with the addition of cliches) when things are going well above expectations or way below expectations.
Keep digging in those heels HW, it’s hilarious.
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
I know I don’t trust my eyes or memory enough to recall 6 years worth of information, hell I don’t trust them enough to recall half a season’s events worth of information.
I don’t trust my eyes to accurately recall what happened in a game I just watched, so having notes to come back to later would definitely be useful towards any meaningful analysis, and I’m thankful for those who dedicate the time and effort to doing it.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
All you have to do is go back and look at last year. As soon as Koivu gets hurt, the team falls apart.
Is the decline in save % due to injured forwards? In many ways, yes. One, they can’t control the puck to save their lives. By definition, if you have the puck, the other team can’t shoot it. The forwards the Wild had up were not nearly good enough to compete. The other side of it is, the forwards that went down with injury are solid two way players, save for Setoguchi. The defensive ability of the forwards evaporated almost over night. They gave up on the system, and have yet to rediscover it.
The Wild have got to have set a record for the most back door, wide open net goals in those 15 games. Five guys standing around watching the puck, not playing defense of any kind. They don’t challenge the puck carrier, the shooter… basically anyone. They are all afraid to make a move at either end of the ice.
I know the stats argument is the one you likely want to have. I don’t. I’m not saying the stats are wrong. They are dead on. I’m giving you the reasons the stats went down. Forwards play defense, too. When they stop, it makes the goalies’ job a lot more difficult. No?
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
All you have to do is go back and look at last year. As soon as Koivu gets hurt, the team falls apart.
So the argument is that the four games that he missed in the middle of this 15-game stretch caused the entire 15-game slide?
Is the decline in save % due to injured forwards? In many ways, yes. One, they can’t control the puck to save their lives. By definition, if you have the puck, the other team can’t shoot it.
You realize that this won’t impact save percentage, right? GAA, perhaps, but not Sv%. Also, that this is pretty much the exact argument that the Corsi proponents make when explaining why bad possession numbers are a bad thing.
The other side of it is, the forwards that went down with injury are solid two way players, save for Setoguchi. The defensive ability of the forwards evaporated almost over night.
Why didn’t the forwards regain their defensive ability when Koivu came back? Why did Zidlicky’s return do nothing to mitigate this disaster? Why was that defensive ability lost long before Bouchard got hurt? You say “almost over night”, but the timing of these injuries doesn’t seem to coincide with the beginning of this slide as neatly as you imply.
I’m giving you the reasons the stats went down. Forwards play defense, too. When they stop, it makes the goalies’ job a lot more difficult. No?
Of course, but it was unreasonable to think the goalies were going to sustain a .936 save percentage. You yourself didn’t expect any such thing, I don’t believe. Why do you have to invoke injuries to forwards (while getting top defensemen back from injury) to explain a drop in save percentage to somewhere near the goalies’ career levels?
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 17, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
To tie in to Eric’s comment about a .936 being unsustainable, it has been done since the lockout. Once. By Tim Thomas, last year. So far this year, Thomas, Rask, and Elliott are on pace for it, but it’s incredibly rare. Pre-lockout, it was also done. Once. By Hasek.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 1:23 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
And, if you go back, I don’t think anyone with half a brain said it would be.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
And yet you got upset when everyone pointed out that this was precisely what was happening: that the goaltending was unsustainable and covering for poor possession, and that the Wild would be less good if/when the goalies returned to career norms, which they now have.
I’m confused.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
(And to be clear, I’m with Eric: the injuries certainly help explain how terribad this slump is, just not the fact that it occurred in the first place. That’s assigning cause and effect post hoc or, in more statistical terms, using correlation to imply causation.)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
Where are you confused? I still don’t think goaltending was covering for poor possession. I think the term “possession” is misleading. The Wild possessed the puck just fine when they were winning. They didn’t shoot, which meant every says they didn’t have good possession. They did. They had terrible shooting numbers. Goalies have nothing to do with shooting.
The goalies returned to career norms. Fine. I’m not arguing they didn’t. But you say it because the team has terrible possession numbers, and I am telling you it is because the team quit playing defense.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
But you say it because the team has terrible possession numbers, and I am telling you it is because the team quit playing defense.
Nobody is saying the Wild’s goaltenders regressed because of the possession numbers. The point is that the Wild’s goaltenders regressed because that’s what happens when we have substantial amounts of data showing how good they are at stopping pucks.
The possession numbers were used, in conjunction with the goaltender regression, to show that the Wild would not continue winning hockey games.
Just so we’re clear.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 17, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
Over any reasonable sample of games, zone time correlates very strongly with shot attempts. It’s a perfectly understandable thing, too: more time in the O-zone = more shot attempts for; less time in the D-zone = less shot attempts against. The Wild weren’t barely getting outshot: they were getting slaughtered, even with the score tied, when guys wouldn’t be playing to the score. That says they were spending a lot of time in the defensive zone, which sooner or later is going to end in getting outscored. That they didn’t initially is a credit to the goalkeepers, but once they returned to Earth, there was no reason to think this was anything close to a first-overall team. Unfortunately, the injury bug is confounding the data – no one denies this; no team is 2-14 bad – but even with a healthy lineup, there’s no reason to think they’re that much better than previous iterations, which had similarly bad underlying numbers.
That’s the point that the stats guys were (indelicately) trying to make during November and December: that we’ve seen this movie before, in Colorado and Dallas, that the Wild weren’t as good as their record suggested, and that they were bound to fall back once Backstrom/Harding gave up their Hasek/Thomas impressions. That the Wild’s possession numbers were/are the absolute worst in the League simply underscored the point.
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by Doogie2K on Jan 18, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
So the argument is that the four games that he missed in the middle of this 15-game stretch caused the entire 15-game slide?
I am saying it is a big part of it, yes. Absolutely. From a guy who walks into the locker room after every home game, the look of the team changes completely when he isn’t there. It’s disgusting, but absolutely the case. These players, for better or worse, are fragile. Lose Koivu, and they give up.
You realize that this won’t impact save percentage, right? GAA, perhaps, but not Sv%. Also, that this is pretty much the exact argument that the Corsi proponents make when explaining why bad possession numbers are a bad thing.
So a shot on goal that can’t be stopped doesn’t effect save %? In other words, if the forwards stop playing defense, and the quality of the shot goes up, that doesn’t effect the goalie’s ability to stop the puck? Come on now. As for Corsi, I’m not getting into that. At all.
Why didn’t the forwards regain their defensive ability when Koivu came back?
The forwards didn’t come back when Koivu did. Bouchard – out. Latendresse – out. Wellman – may as well be out. I know these three guys don’t get much love from anyone outside Minnesota, but they are pretty good defensive forwards with strong offensive upside. Now, replace them with Warren Peters and David McIntyre. Now drop off in talent there?
Why did Zidlicky’s return do nothing to mitigate this disaster?
Zidlicky’s defense is that of Ilya Kovalchuck. Does that help?
Why was that defensive ability lost long before Bouchard got hurt?
Bouchard was hurt in the Winnipeg game. When did the slide start in your mind? Because they were playing pretty damn good hockey until the Chicago / Winnipeg games.
You say "almost over night", but the timing of these injuries doesn’t seem to coincide with the beginning of this slide as neatly as you imply.
I’m not going for neat. You are. It’s a messy situation, with players in and out of the lineup. You want a single reason for the slide to have started. There isn’t one neat little package to explain it. It is the mash-up of 25 (hyperbole) different things all happening at once.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
You realize that this won’t impact save percentage, right? GAA, perhaps, but not Sv%. Also, that this is pretty much the exact argument that the Corsi proponents make when explaining why bad possession numbers are a bad thing.So a shot on goal that can’t be stopped doesn’t effect save %? In other words, if the forwards stop playing defense, and the quality of the shot goes up, that doesn’t effect the goalie’s ability to stop the puck? Come on now. As for Corsi, I’m not getting into that. At all.
I think you missed the point here.
- You said “they can’t control the puck to save their lives. By definition, if you have the puck, the other team can’t shoot it.”
- I said that this doesn’t affect save percentage, that playing keep-away reduces shots against and goals against, but not save percentage. And that this is the argument for valuing possession — which the Wild have been bad at all year, which is why the statheads predicted a slide.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Looking forward to watching a good team tonight. It’s been awhile.
By that, you mean the Flyers, right? :)
Yes. Absolutely, 100%.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Dear karma,
We’re just giving the Wild fans some good-natured ribbing. We’re not cocky or anything. Please please please don’t bite us.
Love, us
I heart our rookies.
"Who's more crazy? Who's more...weird?"
by LeepinLizardz on Jan 17, 2012 12:41 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Ha ha. Love it.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
is darrel powe really second line material?
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
...
Madly in love with Jaromir Jagr's brilliant smile and epic goal salute.
Matt Read for Calder!
Jeff Skinner, at 6 years old, is the youngest player in the NHL.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun. Definition: Bad-assery on skates
by Chemistry66 on Jan 17, 2012 12:51 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Ha, I totally just noticed the URL.
Madly in love with Jaromir Jagr's brilliant smile and epic goal salute.
Matt Read for Calder!
Jeff Skinner, at 6 years old, is the youngest player in the NHL.
Ian Laperriere (EE-an luh-PAIR-ee-YAIR), proper noun. Definition: Bad-assery on skates
Obvious answer is: No.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 17, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Does the answer change when the alternatives are Staubitz and Buttercluck?
Bob.
by The Dark on Jan 17, 2012 12:55 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
No, it just shows how bad the Wild’s third line is.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 17, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair, Clutterbuck has actually played his best hockey while skating on the first line.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
On this team? Unfortunately, yes.
Editor:Hockey Wilderness Swarm Beat Writer:In Lax We Trust Now with more Twitterness: ReynoldsSBN
Master of unsustainable passive regression.
Paging Mr. Universe
The stars seem to be aligned for a breakthrough performance in goal (career stats vs. Wild, home start, cessation of all bad bounces, pissed-off Hartsy making statements, etc.). Give this one away, sir, and it will be 17,000+ pitchforks and lighted torches waiting for you at your next concert.
I honestly think after what we see tonight it will start the spiral towards going back to Russia for bryz and the rise of CZAR BOB
by profoundnotions on Jan 17, 2012 1:04 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
i see thread trolling in the immediate future...
its just a shame cause i work till 12 am and wont be able to use my gifs
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
Wrong Lines Listed?
Read – Schenn – Wayne Train
Scooter was centering Read and Simmonds all night Saturday night. I’d expect that would continue, considering the results (that line scored both goals).
What I’d like to see (especially as an experiment) is Schenn with Briere and Voracek, and Talbot centering Shelley and Z.
GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal
But Talbot is a goal scorer now, Bylsma said so!
by hebrew hammer on Jan 17, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I was going off memory so who knows, I could totally be wrong.
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by Travis Hughes on Jan 17, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Zac Rinaldo got hit with a puck in practice over the weekend
We re-signed Boynton?
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 17, 2012 6:05 PM EST reply actions
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