Current Score-Adjusted Fenwick Standings

by Eric T. on Jan 23, 2012 3:31 PM EST in Philadelphia Flyers Commentary

Earlier today, I posted a look at how adjustments for score effects can help us make better predictions than narrowing our sample size to look just at tied games. Let's take a quick look at where Score-Adjusted Fenwick differs from Fenwick Tied for this year's teams (thanks to George E. Ays for the suggestion).

Full table after the jump.

Team	Score-Adjusted Fenwick	Fenwick Tied	Fenwick Close
DET	57.0	56.5	56.8
STL	56.2	56.5	56.1
PIT	55.5	54.9	55.4
CHI	53.0	53.9	52.7
VAN	53.0	50.8	51.4
BOS	52.9	52.4	52.7
SJ	52.3	51.6	51.1
PHI	51.1	48.0	50.9
LA	50.9	51.8	51.3
WPG	50.8	50.4	51.1
COL	50.3	50.2	51.3
DAL	50.0	50.0	49.0
NJ	49.7	51.3	50.3
OTT	49.5	50.4	50.1
MTL	49.2	47.8	48.6
CBJ	49.2	50.6	50.6
PHX	49.0	49.4	49.8
NYI	49.0	50.0	49.4
FLA	48.6	50.8	49.7
TOR	48.5	48.1	48.4
EDM	48.3	49.0	48.3
WSH	48.3	52.2	50.0
CAR	48.1	47.3	48.1
TB	47.8	46.7	48.1
NYR	47.8	48.5	48.5
BUF	47.6	47.1	46.8
CGY	47.6	49.0	47.8
ANA	46.3	46.0	44.9
NSH	46.0	44.0	45.2
MIN	44.2	43.7	45.0

The team that originally started me down this path was the Capitals, who have been very good in tied games but bad in all other situations. I believe Fenwick Tied overrates them considerably.

The other team substantially overrated by Fenwick Tied is Florida (48.6% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 50.8% Fenwick Tied). New Jersey, Columbus, and Calgary also each look a bit overrated by Fenwick Tied.

At the other end of the scale, our very own Flyers appear to be badly underrated by Fenwick Tied (51.1% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 48.0% Fenwick Tied). Vancouver (53.0% vs 50.8%) and Nashville (46.0% vs 44.0%) also appear to be badly underrated.

As should not be a surprise given how the numbers are derived, Fenwick Close often lies about halfway between Fenwick Tied and Score-Adjusted Fenwick, both in absolute value and in predictive accuracy.

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wow Detroit, STL and Pits are insane in puck possession.

by Anders Jensen on Jan 23, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions

So, to the extent that Fenwick is predictive, the Rangers are looking at the biggest drop after the All-Star break, and the gap is considerable, if not as yawning as Minnesota’s earlier this year.

If that is true, then why aren’t we hearing about how overrated the Rangers are? Is part of it that Lundqvist is actually an elite goalie, unlike Minnesota’s tandem, and can carry a team with a sub-50 percentage?

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 23, 2012 3:45 PM EST reply actions

This is why

They’re going to drop, just not off a cliff like other teams of the past. Lundqvist will help them mitigate some of the drop anyway, but basically their full season numbers are not indictative of the team as constructed, specifically since they called up Carl Hagelin and John Mitchell (of all people).

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by George E. Ays on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

i'm going to have to read it later when i can concentrate on all the charts, but part of the answer is that if a puck-possession guy like Hagelin had been there all season their numbers would be better.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 23, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

I just posted in the other one as well, but basically since Hagelin/Mitchell were called up, they’re at 52.0% tied, 51.9% close, which puts them roughly top 6 or so. Over that time, their PDO tied is just 995, and close it’s 101.3, neither of which is that outrageous.

They had an abysmal start to the year and rode a good bit of luck early in the season, but they’ve played about 2/3 of the season thus far at a level comparable to the top guys in the league now. As long as the shooting doesn’t completely bottom out, they should be fine, and they still have Lunqvist.

by George E. Ays on Jan 23, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

I’m interested in variances between what my eyes tell me and the stats. I’ve seen the Rangers four times this year apart from our games and they have looked like a solid team, so the 52 figure matches this a lot more than 48. Thanks.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 23, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

Minnesota in last? No way!

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by Chase W on Jan 23, 2012 11:19 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, and unlike for Fen Tied, it’s not even close. Which is funny because one of the snarky comments you’d hear from time to time on HW was “and of course only even strength tied situations matter” — but when we include all even strength situations, they actually fall farther into last. And while their #24 PP and #14 PK aren’t terrible, they aren’t exactly driving the team to the playoffs either.

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by Eric T. on Jan 24, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions

Unpossible! They’re good and you’re just jealous!

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by hintzy64 on Jan 24, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

Any fallout from the Tim Thomas 'Showeroutgate'?

I actually respect him even more and its a wise veteran move, but seems like the NHL at least has to add a specific rule to the playbook now to prevent similar abuse in the future.

If this was also caught on video, how about awarding both teams one point, with Bruins losing their shoot-out win point for ethics violation? Damn, wish Bryz would have thought of that first.

Carter & Boucher traded for Cam Ward

by TimKerr on Jan 24, 2012 12:30 AM EST reply actions