Current Score-Adjusted Fenwick Standings

Earlier today, I posted a look at how adjustments for score effects can help us make better predictions than narrowing our sample size to look just at tied games. Let's take a quick look at where Score-Adjusted Fenwick differs from Fenwick Tied for this year's teams (thanks to George E. Ays for the suggestion).

Full table after the jump.

Team Score-Adjusted Fenwick Fenwick Tied Fenwick Close
DET 57.0 56.5 56.8
STL 56.2 56.5 56.1
PIT 55.5 54.9 55.4
CHI 53.0 53.9 52.7
VAN 53.0 50.8 51.4
BOS 52.9 52.4 52.7
SJ 52.3 51.6 51.1
PHI 51.1 48.0 50.9
LA 50.9 51.8 51.3
WPG 50.8 50.4 51.1
COL 50.3 50.2 51.3
DAL 50.0 50.0 49.0
NJ 49.7 51.3 50.3
OTT 49.5 50.4 50.1
MTL 49.2 47.8 48.6
CBJ 49.2 50.6 50.6
PHX 49.0 49.4 49.8
NYI 49.0 50.0 49.4
FLA 48.6 50.8 49.7
TOR 48.5 48.1 48.4
EDM 48.3 49.0 48.3
WSH 48.3 52.2 50.0
CAR 48.1 47.3 48.1
TB 47.8 46.7 48.1
NYR 47.8 48.5 48.5
BUF 47.6 47.1 46.8
CGY 47.6 49.0 47.8
ANA 46.3 46.0 44.9
NSH 46.0 44.0 45.2
MIN 44.2 43.7 45.0

The team that originally started me down this path was the Capitals, who have been very good in tied games but bad in all other situations. I believe Fenwick Tied overrates them considerably.

The other team substantially overrated by Fenwick Tied is Florida (48.6% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 50.8% Fenwick Tied). New Jersey, Columbus, and Calgary also each look a bit overrated by Fenwick Tied.

At the other end of the scale, our very own Flyers appear to be badly underrated by Fenwick Tied (51.1% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 48.0% Fenwick Tied). Vancouver (53.0% vs 50.8%) and Nashville (46.0% vs 44.0%) also appear to be badly underrated.

As should not be a surprise given how the numbers are derived, Fenwick Close often lies about halfway between Fenwick Tied and Score-Adjusted Fenwick, both in absolute value and in predictive accuracy.

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