Why Bryz (If he gets his act together) Is a cup winning goaltender

Crap. Link for the 0.930 goaltending.

This is a legitimately good point. I would only add that in Phoenix, Bryzgalov’s backups stopped the same percentage (actually barely higher) of shots at even-strength as Bryz. There are a ton of caveats to that, but it’s not just Mike Smith for 30 games that leads people to that conclusion. It’s 3+ years worth of data that does.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=51169 – Bryzgalov
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=47278 – Tellqvist
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29212 – LaBarbera

Bryz’s four seasons in Phoenix:
55 games – 0.921
65 games – 0.906
69 games – 0.920
68 games – 0.921

Tellqvist’s 3 seasons in Phoenix:
30 games – 0.885
22 games – 0.908
15 games – 0.907

LaBarbera’s 3 seasons in Phoenix:
17 games – 0.928
17 games – 0.909
14 games – 0.907

I think you’re placing a misleading level of emphasis on this resounding 3+ years of data that tells you this.

So 23 out of 30 NHL teams have a Cup worthy goaltender. Four more if you count the goalies who have put up 0.929 save percentage on at least 600 shots. That’s 27 teams who have Cup worthy goaltenders. Ilya Bryzgalov is not exactly unique there.

Could we potentially get an analysis focussing on all goalies in the post-lockout era and work out what proportion of the time each goalie spent above the magical 0.930 save percentage over at least 600 shots? I’m not sure how easy or tought it would be but it would be a great indication of possible-Stanley-Cup-ness for a goalie. For example, look at all 600 shot samples in Leighton’s career. And then work out what proportion of those 600 shot samples had a save % of above 0.930. I’m guessing a guy like Leighton would have a much lower percentage than a guy like Bryz.

Any goalie can get hot, any goalie on any given year (As you said in your 27/30 argument) can make a run at the cup.

This is completely true, which means no goalie should be signed for 9 years and $51 million. You say you’d rather have Bryz for 9 years, but what you mean to say is you’d rather have a 0.915-talent goalie for 9 years. You have no idea what Bryz is going to do when he’s 34 years old, let alone when he’s 39. Thinking he’s going to be just as good in year nine as he was before he signed the contract is foolish. Most goalies don’t stay elite into their late 30s.

Bob is 24. He doesn’t have the history that Bryz has of good save percentage over the previous 4 seasons. Who cares if 4 out of the last 7 were sub .910
The more important stat is that he is 3 out of the last 4 over .920 a very exclusive club

It’s more important to you because it fits the opinion you already have. You are throwing out any year that wasn’t good, and saying “see, he’s good!”

I get that Bryzgalov had two good years leading up to free agency, but before those two years, what made him anything? Entering the 09-10 season, Bryzgalov put up a 0.906 Sv% one year after getting waived.

You keep saying Bryzgalov has this history, but look at the timeline from a different angle:

25 year old backup, 0.910 Sv%
26 year old backup, 0.907 Sv%
27 year old backup, 0.909 Sv%

Gets waived
27 year old starter, 0.921 Sv%
28 year old starter, 0.906 Sv%

At age 29, Ilya Bryzgalov is an NHL backup goalie who had one good year. There’s no reason to think he’s an elite goalie in the NHL at this point, even with that one 0.920 year.

He then has two good years right before free agency, and now has an 0.895 Sv% at age 31. What’s more important? The two years at ages 29 and 30, or the five years at age 25, 26, 27, 28, and 31?

It’s all about perspective.

What if Bob is a great goalie and wins 35 game with a low GAA and a high SVT and then come play offs he plays well but we get beat. Then next year he can’t repeat that. Most goalies cannot.

This is what happened last year. Bob is a great goalie and wins 28 games with a low GAA and a high Sv% and then come playoffs he plays well but the Flyers get beat. This year, he’s repeated it.

The reason I defend Bryz is that honestly as a fan I think based on his numbers, based on video of him over the years, he gives the Flyers the best chance to win. Maybe not our game next tuesday. But if you give him starts and he gets his confidence then he might be the best goalie come playoff time.

These are all reasonable opinions. It’s perfectly understandable to think Bryzgalov is the better goalie. But it’s awfully easy to say the exactly opposite. You say “3 out of 4 years he’s been a 0.920 goalie” just as easily as I say “4 out of 7 years he’s been nothing more than an NHL backup”. You weight recent performance more, I weight career performance more. There’s nothing wrong with that. My problem is:

But if you give him starts and he gets his confidence then he might be the best goalie come playoff time.

can apply to either goalie.