2012 NHL All-Star Draft: Odds favor Scott Hartnell as last pick
by Travis Hughes on Jan 26, 2012 2:13 PM EST
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Scott Hartnell isn't the prototypical All-Star.
He plays the exact opposite of what one could call a "flashy" game, he pisses people off every shift he takes, and he looks like a caveman. He isn't a poster boy. He isn't necessarily well-liked around the league. And he was picked as an All-Star at the last possible second, meaning he's, in theory, one of the least All-Stary of the All-Stars.
All of this adds up to the strong likelihood that he's picked last in tonight's 2012 NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft (8 p.m., NBCSN). According to Bovada (you might know them as Bodog), Hartnell has 6/1 odds as the last pick in the draft. Jamie Benn, Jason Pominville, Logan Couture and Jordan Eberle all sit at 13/2 odds, but Hartnell sits alone at the top of the list. Or perhaps the bottom, depending on how you look at it.
Honestly, I hope Hartnell gets picked last, because he would have more fun with the Mr. Irrelevancy "honor" than anybody else in the draft. Just think about it...
On the flip side, Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen both sit at 70/1 odds to be selected with the first pick in the draft. Six other players are listed at the same mark. Full list of the odds after the jump. Claude Giroux will be picked early.
Who will be picked first in the 2012 NHL All Star Draft?
Erik Karlsson (OTT) 5/6
Tim Thomas (BOS) 7/1
Jason Spezza (OTT) 8/1
Milan Michalek (OTT) 15/1
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) 20/1
Henrik Sedin (VAN) 20/1
Pavel Datsyuk (DET) 20/1
Tyler Seguin (BOS) 25/1
Steven Stamkos (TB) 30/1
Marian Hossa (CHI) 30/1
Claude Giroux (PHI) 35/1
Daniel Sedin (VAN) 35/1
Phil Kessel (TOR) 35/1
Dion Phaneuf (TOR) 40/1
Shea Weber (NAS) 40/1
Jarome Iginla (CAL) 45/1
Marian Gaborik (NYR) 45/1
Corey Perry (ANA) 45/1
Carey Price (MTL) 60/1
Jimmy Howard (DET) 60/1
John Tavares (NYI) 50/1
Patrick Kane (CHI) 50/1
Brian Campbell (FLA) 60/1
Kris Letang (PIT) 60/1
Jordan Eberle (EDM) 60/1
Dennis Wideman (WAS) 65/1
Alexander Edler (VAN) 65/1
Keith Yandle (PHO) 65/1
Ryan Suter (NAS) 65/1
Brian Elliott (STL) 70/1
Jonathan Quick (LAK) 70/1
Scott Hartnell (PHI) 70/1
Jamie Benn (DAL) 70/1
Jason Pominville (BUF) 70/1
Logan Couture (SJ) 70/1
Dan Girardi (NYR) 70/1
Kimmo Timonen (PHI) 70/1
Any Other Player 70/1
Who will be picked last in the 2012 NHL All Star Draft?
Scott Hartnell (PHI) 6/1
Jamie Benn (DAL) 13/2
Jason Pominville (BUF) 13/2
Logan Couture (SJ) 13/2
Jordan Eberle (EDM) 13/2
John Tavares (NYI) 15/1
Patrick Kane (CHI) 15/1
Phil Kessel (TOR) 15/1
Marian Gaborik (NYR) 15/1
Corey Perry (ANA) 15/1
Daniel Sedin (VAN) 25/1
Jarome Iginla (CAL) 25/1
Claude Giroux (PHI) 25/1
Marian Hossa (CHI) 25/1
Steven Stamkos (TB) 25/1
Tyler Seguin (BOS) 30/1
Milan Michalek (OTT) 30/1
Pavel Datsyuk (DET) 50/1
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) 50/1
Henrik Sedin (VAN) 50/1
Jason Spezza (OTT) 50/1
Any Other Player 13/2
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Karlsson has odds of 5/6? So he has better than a 100% chance of being picked first?
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
That means that if you bet $6 and win, they give you $11 (your $6 back plus $5 profit). Just like 6/1 odds mean that if you bet $1 and win, they give you $7.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
So he’s got a roughly 6/11 = 54.5% chance of being taken first, if we want to put it like this. Which sounds about right, given that there’s a 50% chance he’s guaranteed to go first (if Alfredsson wins the toss) and they could always decide to show a bit of love to the hometown guys.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
(I know that gambling odds aren’t meant to be interpreted that literally in terms of percentages, but that’s just a way to look at it)
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it’s actually quite a bit less, because you don’t get fair odds when you bet (or else the bookie wouldn’t make money), but they’re paying out as if it were 54.5% odds.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Sure you do
Bookies make their money on the vig. $10 bet costs you $11. They keep the $1. The odds are stacked to try and get a 50-50 split on bets, so they can pay the winners from the losers, and keep the juice.
This is one way to describe what happens when betting something like a point spread (though I think it would be more accurate to say they’re giving you 10/11 odds on something that is a 50-50 proposition).
However, it is not at all how betting works when there are a lot of options, each with odds, as in the present conversation. If you genuinely believe these are the fair odds, then let’s do some arithmetic:
Karlsson 5/6 odds = 54.5% chance of going first
Thomas 7/1 odds = 12.5%
Spezza 8/1 odds = 11.1%
Michalek 15/1 odds = 6.3%
Three players 20/1 odds = 4.8% x 3
Seguin 25/1 odds = 3.8%
Two players 30/1 odds = 3.2% x 2
Three players 35/1 odds = 2.8% x 3
Two players 40/1 odds = 2.4% x 2
Three players 45/1 odds = 2.2% x 3
Two players 50/1 odds = 2.0% x 2
Five players 60/1 odds = 1.6% x 5
Four players 65/1 odds = 1.5% x 4
Eight players 70/1 odds = 1.4% x 8
Any other player 70/1 odds = 1.4%
Add it all up, and the odds that somebody gets picked first are 160%.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Jan 26, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Uh … huh? Call me stupid, but if 1 in 40 gets you 2.4% (which my math agrees with) how does 6 in 5 get you 54%? It would be 120%.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Because that’s not how it works. The way we’re looking at it here, the “percentage”, in this case, is denominator / (numerator plus denominator).
So for, say, Shea Weber, who has 40/1odds, it would be 1/(40+1) = 1/41 = 2.4%. For Karlsson, it’d be 6/(6+5) = 6/11 = 54.5%.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it’s not 1 in 40; it’s 40 to 1, which is 1 in 41.
And it’s not 6 in 5 (which would be more than 100%); it’s 6 to 5, which is 6 in 11.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
So … it’s not actually math. In real math, 40:1 means just that – 40 to 1 odds. Not 1 in 41. This perhaps explains why I never (in all my years hanging out in shitty bars) once made a real sports bet. Obviously, my sixth sense told me I simply didn’t understand it … kinda like the stock market, women’s fashions, and people’s fascination with Jello.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
The slash isn’t a division symbol. It’s just expressing the ratio differently.
I think.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Oh no – I assumed it wasn’t division per se. I assumed it was a mathematical proportion. Just like slopes for roofs or anything else logical and sensible. :) Silly me.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
In math, if there are six people, five of whom are men and one of whom is a woman then the ratio is 5:1. Six people. One in six.
Same idea with odds. If the odds are even money (1:1) then once you win and once you lose. Two times. One in two.
At least they seem the same to me.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 26, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. Except this is the internet, so the woman is really a man too.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Ah – true, the RATIO is 5 to 1. That would read as ‘five to one’. However, that doesn’t change the fact that I was reading it as a PROPORTION, in which case, there are a total of five individuals. In a proportion, you’d write your example as 1:6, or ‘one out of six’. Just like a roof slope (or any other trigonometric proportion, like pi or the quadratic) is stated as 1:12 … meaning one foot of rise in 12 feet of run (not 13).
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110124184913AAjDC3U
http://www.math.com/school/subject1/lessons/S1U2L2DP.html
http://www.icoachmath.com/math_dictionary/Proportion.html
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 27, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Think of 40 to 1 as if the “game” (whatever that may be) played 41 times, one side would win 40, one would win 1.
by chicago_flyers_fan on Jan 26, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Because that’s not how it works.
Probably the best and most concise explanantion. Good work.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
Then how does the notation 40/1 work? I thought for something like this the simple chances were “one chance in 40” not actually bettors odds. It’s not like Karlsson will be picked first 11 times …
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
40/1 is the bettors odds — it means that if you bet 1 and win, your profit is 40. Which is fair if you win one out of 41 times (40 times, you lose a dollar, and once you win 40).
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Actually, it’s one chance in 41. The notation means that for a player who has 40/1 odds, he will not be selected first 40 times for every one time he is selected first.
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand my pony is slow.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Follow @chasew12
cwicemvp12 : Chase W ::
a) Gandalf the Grey : Gandalf the White
b) Prince : 
c) Constantinople : Istanbul (been a long time gone since Constantinople)
d) All of the above
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
I’m against the change, because I no longer have an idea whether Chase is an ice MVP.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Just ask Geoff, he’s seen my talent in action.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Follow @chasew12
The fact that you got the ‘Prince’ symbol in there impresses the hell outta me.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
I was impressed with the “Istanbul (Not Constantinople)” reference.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
They Might BE Giants.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 27, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Slow pony, it doesn’t work. In real math, 1:40 would denote you get picked once in every 40 attempts. Not saying you’re wrong here – I accept that ‘bookie math’ may not match up with ‘Beautiful Mind Math’ – just that this certainly explains a lot that I never understood about the ‘odds’ given for sports betting.
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
On the bright side, if he is picked last he gets a new car!!!11
Or as Bob McKenzie suggested, a pie to the face, which I would not mind seeing.
Prepare your sleep apparatus.
On the twitterverse
I really hope he goes last, I would imagine Pominville going last to be just full of awkward and zero personality. He is the only player I’d imagine getting picked after Hartnell, outside of Elliot.
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
I don’t think goalies are able to be picked last.
Aren’t there rules like “2 of the first 10 picks must be goalies. 4 of the first 10 must be defensemen.” or some meaningful numbers?
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
I figured. I’m against the drafting idea so I did not watch last year so I don’t know. I will watch the end this year just for Hartnell. But if that rule wasn’t in place, Elliot would be my lock for last.
being obnoxious and self righteous while ignoring the point since 9/29/11
#HondaDown
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 26, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I’m going to take 25/1 and 50/1 odds that the Sedin twins will be two of the last three players drafted (and presumably one of them will go last if Chara picks first). In order for that to happen, Daniel Alfredsson will have to show some real jam, but he’s a character guy, so I think it’s entirely possible.
Geoff, the draft rules require all goalies to be chosen in the first 10 rounds and all defencemen in the first 15, so we know that a forward will be the last pick (hence the odds above).
But my thinking is that with the hate firmly on between the Bruins & Canucks, Alfredsson knows that Chara won’t ever pick the twins. So he can leave them until the end.
A little nutty, but would be golden to watch.
Geoff, the draft rules require all goalies to be chosen in the first 10 rounds and all defencemen in the first 15, so we know that a forward will be the last pick (hence the odds above).
Ah, thanks. I knew it was something like that, guaranteeing a forward picked last.
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Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Hartnell being picked last would be real funny just to see his reaction. And I’m sure he wouldn’t mind a car. Already got a pretty damn nice pad as we saw on 24/7.
Now what we should really be betting on is “Who will take cellphone pictures of Scott Hartnell when he gets picked last”?
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 2:55 PM EST reply actions
I don’t think its that unlikely that we could see Kessel going last again.
I know he doesnt deserve it this year, but If the captains were willing to arrange the draft a little for a joke, he must be right up there in terms of likely victims.
Posting all the way from sunny Manchester, England.
I think there’s about a -73% chance or so of Lupul allowing that to happen.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know why everyone thinks Lupul will tell Chara what to do.
Who has more pull: current teammate and alternate captain Lupul or former teammate and captain Chara?
I’m betting Chara does what he wants and tells Lupul to get traded for Pronger again.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
IIRC, didn’t the assistant captains come up to announce at least some of the picks last year? Lupul could also just say eff you and pick Kessel if he gets the chance.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 26, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Lupul/Hartnell buddy/teammate factor reduces Hartnell’s chances of being last man standing. Chara has last word, but I really think Lupul’s involvement goes in Hartnell’s favor.
If he does get left behind, of anyone, Hartnell would be the best sport about it, no contest.
by adlib19 on Jan 26, 2012 4:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There’s literally no benefit for Chara in telling Lupul to fuck off, in and of itself. I’d assume that’s why he’d give into a reasonable request. However, Charad hates Hartnell, so the request might not be seen as reasonable.
Honestly, I doubt Hartnell will go last because either Giroux/Lupul/Timonen can make the request of Chara, or Giroux/Timonen can make the request of Alfredsson, who no reason not to comply. There’s three people in this draft that are essential Hartnell’s teammates.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
There’s literally no benefit for Chara in telling Lupul to fuck off, in and of itself.
There’s also literally no repercussions for Chara in telling Lupul to fuck off, in and of itself.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Reputation amongst players? Lupul Twitter bombs?
Is Chara really going to care about this draft enough to anger people?
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
Is Chara really going to care about this draft enough to appease people?
I just don’t understand how Lupul can convince Chara to take Kessel, simply because Lupul currently plays with Kessel. Chara knows how good Kessel is, he doesn’t need someone saying “Hey man, do me a favor.” If Kessel goes second to last, it’s going to be more about Jason Pominville than it will be about Joffrey Lupul.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
HBO needs to do a 24/7 on the NHL All-Star draft, show us what it’s like in the backrooms with Chara feverishly working out his ranking list and frantically working the phones, and eventually throwing a chair across the room when his scouts pick Jeremy Bonderman first.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
fixed my tag for you Geoff
"When the Flyers win a playoff series, as they did this past year, is when you yell at me for being wrong? Because I said the Flyers won’t win a round?"
Geoff Detweiler.
Hey thanks. :) It completely changes the meaning.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
And I see you’re as charming as ever
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 26, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
think I like it better the original way
"When the Flyers win a playoff series, as they did this past year, is when you yell at me for being wrong? Because I said the Flyers won’t win a round?"
Geoff Detweiler.
Yeah, because the original way makes it look like I actually said the Flyers won’t win a round in the playoffs when I never did.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 29, 2012 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
James Neal?
Not on the list. Too little time for the bookies to have made odds? And I would totally pick LeTang before Phaneuf. Odds must reflect the Lupul connection.
I know you’ve discussed it above but I really think Kessel should be the last pick. If it’s someone else there’s actually some level of awkwardness (like there was with Kessel last year) but if it’s Kessel then it will just be a joke and everyone will move on (as everyone knows that Kessel deserves to be picked higher this season).
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jan 26, 2012 6:22 PM EST reply actions
Right, but then there’s the “wait, maybe no one ACTUALLY likes me.” I think there’s a number of people who can play it off, including Hartnell, Benn, Eberle, and Perry.
Keeping alive the old Vaudeville joke, "I'd rather be dead than play Philadelphia."
and Perry
Hintzy will take offense … huh? Wrong Perry?
Maxime Talbot - in the Orange and Black ... better than chocolate and peanut butter!
by MaximumTalbot on Jan 26, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
but then there’s the "wait, maybe no one ACTUALLY likes me."
Kessel will have to find out some day…
Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.
One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.
by PursuitOfLappyness on Jan 26, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Thats exactly what I was thinking when I suggested it earlier. Kessel going last again is the least awkward outcome for everyone. Everyone will know its only a joke, especially with Joffrey Lupul in on it. Depends on how bad they feel the guys left at the end, I suppose.
Posting all the way from sunny Manchester, England.
So he says its on NBCSN. Does that mean its on on NBC and CSN? I’m from across the hills..
by kckrebs on Jan 26, 2012 7:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Neither. It is on NBC SportsNet, which is the channel formerly known as Versus. Part of the NBC-Comcast merger, included the re-branding of Versus as NBC Sportsnet. The re-launch occurred during the Winter Classic on January 2.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Random Bullshit
Since this is the evening thread I have confession to make. Beside my addiction to law and order I can not stop watching world’s dumbest on court tv. The idiots in the videos are funny enough but adding the comedians and the b celebrity types just amps it up. Is this crazy or what. My wife thinks I’m nuts.
Also food for thought is anyone else out there old enough to remember when they actually shopped for furniture and crap on the wheel of fortune? It was absurd 70 style furniture and appliances.
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.
Damn you Travis!
Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!
DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.
Draft thread?
Here?
Awaiting the return of the G-stache
"There’s more to life than being really, really, really good at hockey."
-DannyMcG
by Philly37 on Jan 26, 2012 8:02 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
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