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Since His Injury, Andreas Lilja Has Been Awful

Those were the days.

For the year, Andreas Lilja has a total Corsi of minus-49 -- when he's been on the ice, the opponents have gotten 49 more shot attempts than the Flyers have. That's not very good; it works out to 10 extra shots for the opponents per 60 minutes that he's on the ice, worst among the Flyers' nine defensemen who have played at least five games.

(As a reminder, we care about Corsi because it is a great proxy for puck possession and zone time, and because in the long run it correlates very strongly with scoring chances and goals.)

Lilja's Corsi of minus-49 has an interesting breakdown, though. Click through to the jump (or read the headline) to find out more.

Star-divide

Lilja Corsi breakdown Total Corsi Corsi per 60 min
20 games before injury -17 -4
5 games since injury -32 -31

Simply put, since he came back from his injury, Lilja has been killing the Flyers. The Flyers have gotten 45 shot attempts with him on the ice and the opponents have gotten 77. The opponents are driving play into the Flyers end against him and scoring goals -- he's been on the ice for five goals against in 61 minutes of play and no goals for.

It was particularly brutal yesterday. The Flyers tried to hide him by matching him up with Michael Rupp's line, a grouping that itself has a Corsi of -30 per 60 minutes. A line that wasn't beating anyone. I think you know how that turned out, but here are the numbers:

  • The Flyers had a +25 Corsi when Lilja was off the ice and a -13 Corsi when he was on the ice.
  • Lilja was on the ice for 11 minutes and in that time the Rangers put 12 shots on goal and scored two goals.
  • Lilja was on the ice with Brad Richards for just one shift and ended up right at the center of things as the game-winning goal was scored.

What about Andrej Meszaros? He's made some pretty terrible plays during this stretch too, and has an unsightly Corsi of his own (-29 over the last five games). However, I see two signs that Lilja is the one dragging the play down.

First of all, over the last five games Meszaros has had over 30 minutes of even strength shifts with other defensive partners and had a roughly neutral Corsi in that span. Secondly, in the five previous games, playing mostly with Kevin Marshall, he managed a Corsi of -5. So when Marshall got replaced by Lilja, Meszaros' Corsi plummeted, even though his shifts with other defensemen are still fine. That points to Lilja being the problem.

With that being said, Meszaros is not blameless. He's had plenty of errors of his own, and the expectations for him are much higher. He is supposed to be able to carry a lesser partner, and he hasn't even come close.

But in the end, when I look at how much better Meszaros did with Marshall, I wonder why Lilja is getting ice time right now. Whether Lilja is suffering lingering effects of his injury or just going through a slump, the team is getting killed whenever he's on the ice. To reference coach Laviolette on 24/7, he's not earning his shifts lately -- the team doesn't need their #6 defenseman to be Shea Weber, but he can't play like Ryan Parent either.

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Eric wins the URL game today.

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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Have you accepted Ilya Bryzgalov as your savior?

by Travis Hughes on Jan 3, 2012 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

I didn’t even notice until I read this.

by tobyw4n on Jan 3, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I always forget to look until someone mentions it.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Who has he been paired with, predominantly? I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire defense has had bad numbers recently. The team is looking tired and frustrated. And I am not on the Lilja band wagon but watching the games hasn’t led me to believe he is god awful. But I know the numbers don’t lie they just don’t tell the whole story of the situations and the other 11 players on the ice.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 1:50 PM EST reply actions  

He’s been paired predominantly with Andrej Meszaros. When they’ve been together, they’ve gotten killed. When Meszaros has been with another defenseman, he’s been fine.

Which is not to say Mez is playing well lately — he’s not at all — but I can’t get past the fact that things only really go to hell when Lilja is out there.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Do Mez and Lilja get predominantly paired with defensively poor forwards?

(What’s the link to the site with the time on ice and linemate info anyways?)

by Phalange on Jan 3, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s pretty evenly distributed (link).

There are seven forwards all within a few percent of each other in ice-time-with-Meszaros, and eight forwards all within a few percent of each other in ice-time-with-Lilja.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

The game recaps used to include a slew of links, including one to basically a giant matrix of who was on ice against whom…

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know I have to pay more attention to him I guess. I don’t do the stats but I feel when a guy stinks its obvious and he hasn’t obviously stunk to me. He is not Lidstrom but he is serviceable in a time of need. IMO

He's only -1 for the season so he isn't that bad!

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

But he's -5 for the last five games, which is the period I'm griping about.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I know!

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Last I checked, your eyes can’t smell. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Listen Hintzy, get back to your harlequin romance novel!

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Whatever, I expect a full report on what your nose observed while watching the games from now on.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

The Gogol report

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 3, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Why you not use sarcasm font?

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Who said I was being sarcastic?

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Why you heft to be mad all the time?

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not. But sarcasm font ruins the fun. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

So does rumor and speculation!

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

[grumble!]

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Is stinking reserved completely for olfactory review alone?

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

When you get a pizza delivered, do you put your ear to the box?

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Depends on who is delivering and in what context.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Link fail, try this

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

UNICEF? That’s different.

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Only if it meows

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Synesthesians of the world, wake up and hear the coffee!

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 3, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve been trying to watch him specifically over the last few games, and I’ve seen him being that bad. Turnovers all the time, can’t get back to touch up icings, get skated around. Just bad, and these numbers confirm what I’ve been seeing.

G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*

by JerseyDriver on Jan 3, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire defense has had bad numbers recently.

Corsi over the last five games:

Coburn +44
Timonen +40
Carle +19
Bourdon +14
Meszaros -29
Lilja -32

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Well how do you like that.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

So we can stop with the “Coburn has played poorly lately” crap that I’m seeing all over the place now, right?

by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jan 3, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s had a couple of really bad gaffes. Those just count as a -1 in the Corsi, but they’re worse than that in reality, and mean he probably isn’t playing as well as his Corsi suggests.

On the other hand, those gaffes are basically all most people notice, and if he’s facing top-6 competition and consistently driving play to the other end of the ice, he’s still clearly helping the team.

This is why stats and eyes are both necessary. Your eyes miss most of the small things a player does, but the stats don’t put any weight on the big things.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

This.

I’ve noticed over the years that the things I tend to remember most frequently about defensemen are: 1) failures to keep the puck in the offensive zone and 2) cross-ice passes in front of our own net that are picked off or are dangerously close to being picked off. Yes, I remember things like the great job Timonen did yesterday defusing that one breakaway, or when guys make crazy saves while the goalie is down, but those two particular types of negative plays always seem to stick with me.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Except for the fact MAB is a bit higher than I would have thought, this is exactly as my eyes would have predicted (see below). Including MAB being ranked higher than BOTH Lilja and Meszaros.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Can the numbers be isolated like when Lilja is with Timonen, even if it’s not common? And reallty I have seen Mez struggle but this means he sucks as bad as Lilja so trade his ass for Weber too.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Barry Trotz would not like Meszaros.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

They can, but Lilja has spent almost all of his time with Mez over these five games and just a minute or two with each of the other guys, which makes it pretty meaningless.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Or that friggin Mez is bringin poor Lilja down.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you read the article or just the headline?

What about Andrej Meszaros? He’s made some pretty terrible plays during this stretch too, and has an unsightly Corsi of his own (-29 over the last five games). However, I see two signs that Lilja is the one dragging the play down.

First of all, over the last five games Meszaros has had over 30 minutes of even strength shifts with other defensive partners and had a roughly neutral Corsi in that span. Secondly, in the five previous games, playing mostly with Kevin Marshall, he managed a Corsi of -5. So when Marshall got replaced by Lilja, Meszaros’ Corsi plummeted, even though his shifts with other defensemen are still fine. That points to Lilja being the problem.

With that being said, Meszaros is not blameless. He’s had plenty of errors of his own, and the expectations for him are much higher. He is supposed to be able to carry a lesser partner, and he hasn’t even come close.

But in the end, when I look at how much better Meszaros did with Marshall, I wonder why Lilja is getting ice time right now.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

M never reads stat articles. I learned that this summer. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Now you want *reading* IN ADDITION to math!

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Do I always need to use the font? Work with me here.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

In fairness, there were a lot of times last summer where you’d come to the stat articles solely to complain about it being another stat article that you didn’t care about reading. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

In jest and with humorous sarcasm. Why is it that most of the people who pray at the alter of the statistics don’t find humor in all of this. And I do bring a great degree of experience being around the sport from an early age which I know definitely clouds or influences my opinions. I would love to watch the games with some of the people around here just to see what other people see. And I do realize I am wrong when presented with obvious stats saying so, but do think I know the sport.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I think I usually see the humor, but in this case if all of your comments were an elaborate pretending-I-didn’t-read-the-article-when-really-I-did metajoke — starting with your first “who did Lilja play with?” — then you played it too straight for me and I missed it.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Samsies, I get a lot of your jokes, but this one was done too well and I thought you meant it. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually some of that was legit. I know you are basing his performance in reference to his pairing with Mez, but I was wondering if there was data when he played with others for reference. And the bringing Lilja down was sarcasm. I have to admit I sometimes agree with the sentiment Vansteel put out yesterday. I come here for banter, humor and conversation about the Flyers. But sometimes people really miss the fun, the passion, even the anger as fans just being human fans. I am still pissed off about yesterday and I don’t need someone questing my intelligence and fandom because I can’t rationally see that the Corsi evidence explains the results and being pissed at Briere is mindless and un-rational. What really gets me going is when people find it necessary to grade your spelling and grammar when they either don’t like your point or can’t understand it. And thats not either of you of course just some things I have noticed in the last year. I should just refrain from commenting on the stats columns, but believe it or not I do sometimes take the time to read them, I am just old school and like I said my experience clouds my judgement.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

un-rational

I think you mean “irrational”.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

HAHAHAHAHA
I blame that squarely on Apple technology.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

So to the original question:

Since his injury, almost all of Lilja’s time has been with Mez. He’s had 47.7 minutes with Mez, 6.8 minutes with Coburn, 4.1 minutes with Bourdon, 2.7 minutes with Carle, and 0.1 minutes with Timonen. I didn’t look into how he did in that time because it’s so sparse that I wouldn’t read much into it.

On the other hand, Mez plays a lot more, so he’s had a decent amount of time with other guys (37.5 minutes). And he seemed to be doing fine in those periods, Corsi-wise. And his Corsi was fine in the previous stretch with Marshall. And so it seemed like the simplest explanation for the terrible Corsi of that pairing was that Lilja hasn’t been right since his injury.

As to the comment about Corsi and rationality, like I said elsewhere in this thread, I think Corsi is better at tracking the little things and people’s eyes are better at tracking the big things.

Most people will rarely notice whether a guy’s coverage at the blue line forces the opponent to dump the puck in or whether a guy covers the right man away from the puck and forces the puck-carrier to attempt a tougher pass — the little plays that determine whether you spend 55% of the game in your end or the opponent’s. And Corsi doesn’t take any special notice of the obvious plays — the perfect centering pass or the great break-up of a rush might gain you a point on the Corsi sheet, but they’re obviously worth more than that.

The truth is that you don’t score or prevent goals without doing some of both things. In the short run, a couple of big plays are often what decide outcomes, but in the long run the little things that lead to controlling the play are what makes a good team.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Does any of this take into consideration the opponents style of play? Like if you are playing a fast dump and chase team that’s entire goal is to dump deep and get offensive zone faceoffs? You are always going to need experienced big bodies to round out your d-corps, but they are going to get beat by fast wingers but that doesn’t mean the team will lose as long as the d-men hold their coverages and move pucks to the wingers. Wingers are also very responsible for getting out of your own defensive zone and staying in the oppositions. This drove me crazy with Stevens coached teams that I believed floated around in the neutral zone expecting long passes, constantly. The breakout is the most important, fundamental part of the game that goes in the shitter when a team is struggling. And it has to be executed by at least 4 out the 5 skaters on the ice to be successful. I am not trying to dispel Corsi or stats, they are end result numbers that represent situations and don’t lie. Hey Lilja is here and not going anywhere. He is an older player and might need a different partner to be successful. And that isn’t hurting the team if it works in the long run.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Does any of this take into consideration the opponents style of play? Like if you are playing a fast dump and chase team that’s entire goal is to dump deep and get offensive zone faceoffs?

No. But we are looking at totals across games against different opponents, a five-game stretch where the Flyers got killed whenever Lilja was on the ice.

You are always going to need experienced big bodies to round out your d-corps, but they are going to get beat by fast wingers but that doesn’t mean the team will lose as long as the d-men hold their coverages and move pucks to the wingers. Wingers are also very responsible for getting out of your own defensive zone and staying in the oppositions.

Sure. But we’re comparing a group of defensemen on the same team, playing with the same forwards, and only one of them is consistently getting creamed. Are you suggesting that the reason the Flyers get pinned in their own end whenever Lilja is on the ice is because the wingers don’t play for him the way they do for Coburn or Bourdon?

Even if that’s true, it might be easier to replace Lilja for a while than to get all of the wingers to go back to playing the way they did for him before they got hurt.

Hey Lilja is here and not going anywhere. He is an older player and might need a different partner to be successful. And that isn’t hurting the team if it works in the long run.

He’s hurting the team in the short run, and I’d like him to go to the pressbox until he gets over whatever physical or mental ailment has the team struggling so badly whenever he’s on the ice.

Seriously here, the guy was on the ice for 12 SOG against (and two goals) in 11 minutes of ice time yesterday while facing the Rangers’ bottom 6. Ever since he got back from his injury, that’s how things go whenever he’s on the ice. At some point, even if your eyes aren’t telling you that he’s playing terribly, don’t you start to wonder if maybe your eyes are missing something?

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m with you, I let my eyes do most of the grading. I do think stats have an important part of it but are not the end all be all.

"When the Flyers win a playoff series, as they did this past year, is when you yell at me for being wrong? Because I said the Flyers won’t win a round'?
Geoff Detweiler.

by Mattx on Jan 4, 2012 3:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I do think stats have an important part of it but are not the end all be all.

I reiterate, that’s how most, if not all, so-called stat nerds feel too. I don’t know anyone who claims that the stats tell all. Stat haters just claim that stat nerds say that.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 4, 2012 12:00 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

I can’t count the number of times of heard this.

by mtitanic on Jan 4, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I just think non stat people feel stat people aggressively and vehemently argue their position based on stats. Listen I’m no stat guy but when Geoff or Eric gang up on me I can see their point and except that it has a basis.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 4, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

And, equally, some non-stat people aggressively and vehemently argue their position based on eyes. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

And any other bullshit they can come up with! ;-)
Sometimes you just have to take a stand whether or not it is true or factual.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 4, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

why so defensive, I never said anyone was a nerd and I never said that anyone felt a certian way. I was saying how I FELT about stats.

"When the Flyers win a playoff series, as they did this past year, is when you yell at me for being wrong? Because I said the Flyers won’t win a round'?
Geoff Detweiler.

by Mattx on Jan 4, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t think that was really defensive, just making the point. That phrase is thrown around a lot about people (whether they be nerds or not, which most of them don’t take as a bad think anyway) who use stats here (and other places). In other words people say all you look at is numbers, or I’ve played the game so I know more by just looking. All of the guys here will tell you stats are a great tool, but not the be all end all; used wisely they help paint a complete picture about what is happening.

G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*

by JerseyDriver on Jan 4, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see that as defensive. I see that as responding to the unnecessary inclusion of an untrue cliche.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 4, 2012 11:26 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

This

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 5, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Eric

What’s Marshall’s Corsi this year?

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

-11 in 86 minutes of even strength play, for a rate of -7.6 per 60 minutes. Worse than pre-injury Lilja, but much better than recent Lilja.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks. I figured there probably wasn’t much difference between the two, but as you point out, he’s better than “Recent Lilja”. I know Gus was only in for 5 games but was his Corsi better than “Pre-injury Lilja”s?

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

*between the two Marshall and Lilja

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Corsi per 60 this year:

Timonen +6.1
Carle +6.1
Bourdon +3.1
Pronger +2.9
Coburn 0
Meszaros -1.0
Gustafsson -4.6
Marshall -7.6
Lilja -9.8 (-4 pre-injury, -31 post-injury)
Walker -18.0

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

So even Walker would be an upgrade over post-injury Lilja. That’s depressing.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

my eyes saw mez break up a breakaway so you’re wrong.

by captj on Jan 3, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

My eyes saw Mez screen Bob on a goal by Mike fuckin’ Rupp, so you’re wrong. :)

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Broad Street Hockey - Covering the Philadelphia Flyers. Have you accepted Ilya Bryzgalov as your savior?

by Travis Hughes on Jan 3, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

That was a fantastic screen. It was just in front of the wrong goalie.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Since His Injury Signing, Andreas Lilja Has Been Awful

Here is one of the two things I have completely nailed at BSH. The first, I’m kinda proud of (predicting the recently debuted NBC Sports Network in July 2010). This, I’m just completely annoyed. I said at the time of the signing, this is stupid and clogging up the young D’s progression, and the fact that it is over-35 just makes it that much worse. Even SOD did not get a 2 year contract.

What about Andrej Meszaros? He’s made some pretty terrible plays during this stretch too, and has an unsightly Corsi of his own (-29 over the last five games).

And yes, anyone who has been paying attention in the game threads has noticed I have been less and less thrilled with Mez recently; he doesn’t pass the eye test let alone the stats test. Yes, he is a great offensive threat, in the mold of a “poor man’s Paul Coffey.” But, like Coffey, he is prone to defensive lapses, of course in Mez’s case worse than Coffey. In the previous game against the Rangers, while he scored, he was personally responsible, in a big clueless way, for 2 other goals. While with other clubs his offensive output might be necessary, the Flyers don’t seem to need that (other than maybe on the PECO point).

Pairing the two together is very dangerous. Put MAB with Timonen, Coburn with Mez, Carle with Lilja. OR maybe Timonen with Lilja and Carle with MAB.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

Why don’t NHL coaches mix d men up according to strength with weakness? You make a good point. Imagine if Desjardin didn’t carry Therien’s water around for all those years?

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Because offenses tend to group their best players together and so defenses usually want to have a strong pairing to put against them.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh.

GMAT verbal section question, Philadelphia sports version.
In 2015, which one of the following will prove to be a better investment?
(a) Ilya Bryzgalov's contract (b) Ryan Howard's extension (c) Mike Vick's extension (d) Greek bonds from 2009 (e) Papelbon's bloat deal

by Bud in TN on Jan 3, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Put Walker with Mez? It can’t possibly be any worse, right?

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure it could be. Lilja has not been good, but his Corsi/60 is still better than Pat Faulkner’s.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Not over the last 5 games of course, but for the year.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

This is what I was getting at, comparing Walker to “Recent Lilja”.
I’d rather we had neither one and I’m in favor of finding a final solution for them.

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

After Rupp’s little salute fiasco, you may want to…um…rephrase the end of that second sentence.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 3, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s ridiculous that he has such a Germanic name. Like Adolf Rupp. I mean Adolph, sorry.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 3, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

That Rupp actually was the son of Mennonite German immigrants.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 3, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

probably part of a large-ish wave in the late 1800s.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 3, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

oh come on

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

I was debating whether to use the sarcasm tag or not. It’s somewhat funny in a black humor sort of way, but it could be taken the wrong way. And I couldn’t resist picking on Rupp one more time.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 4, 2012 1:26 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

hehehe, true. I should have known better, since it was coming from you. :-p

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah – I’m incredibly dry when serious, and sometimes have that dangerously deadpan sense of humor where people will do triple takes trying to figure out if I’m joking or not. I blame my misspent youth.

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 4, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

last two weeks have been eye openers on Team Defense. Mez has a huge shot but makes many a bad panic decision in behind his own net. The teams lack of physicality in front of their own net means they can’t clear rebounds. We need a big presence in front to replace Pronger. Bourdon holds on to the puck way too long for his experience level. At least Walker doesn’t think he’s a dangler back there.

by mixtery on Jan 3, 2012 2:08 PM EST reply actions  

This is why I’m a fan of acquiring Bryan Allen from the Hurricanes at the deadline. By then, it will pretty much be known that Pronger is not coming back this year. If the Flyers can swing Walker + a 4th for Allen, they’d still be under their spending limit, albeit only by $99K.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

It would be more likely Walker+Marshall+a 3rd for Allen, but yeah.

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Walker and a fourth is a thing, though.

by Eric T. on Jan 3, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I get it. I’m just saying Homer would overpay like he always does.

by mtitanic on Jan 3, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Thing = gross overvaluation of Walker and/or gross underestimation of every GM in the league’s intelligence except Homer?

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 3, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Walker must always be traded along with a 4th. It is most certainly “a thing” which is “etched” in “stone.”

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t do that for a rental player. Allen’s contract expires at the end of the year. Walker is still on the books for next year. We can say to Carolina, “Hey, you’re missing the playoffs this year, so give us your slot-clearer! Here’s a 6th d-man for your team this AND next year, and a draft pick for your future! Besides, it seems like every trade we do with you people benefits us in the short term and benefits you down the road! See: Brind’Amour, Rod; Williams, Justin.”

Carolina: “You talked us into it. Matt Walker and a 4th for Bryan Allen.”

This is the exact conversation that will take place on deadline day.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Add in:

“We gave you Nodl for free. You owe us.”

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 3, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

We can always use this argument as well.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Having a conversation with Shaun about the WJC made me say, once more, how angry I am that the Flyers got rid of Asham and replaced him with Shelley.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 3, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

One case where 45=/=45

Flyers Fans: We've survived Lock-outs, Lindros and Cooperalls. If you want to get rid of us, you'll have to split an atom or two.

by KreiderDesigns on Jan 3, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Worst move ever.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Is it the Garrett Klotz Argument?

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

After reading this I am thinking that maybe Marshall is better choice right now.
I liked him.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jan 3, 2012 2:15 PM EST via Android app reply actions  

Or anyone not named Walker.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Chase W on Jan 3, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

1. When does Gus get back

2. Why is Marshall not playing over Lilja

3. We need to make a trade for a defenseman the deadline regardless of Marshall/Gus situations

by DannyMcG on Jan 3, 2012 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

I honestly think this team would be better just going with 5 defensemen then ever letting Lilja step on the ice.

Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.

That is all.

by EREX21 on Jan 3, 2012 3:44 PM EST reply actions  

Or play with Mez for that matter!

Damn, sorry guys I couldn’t help myself.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t get it.

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

It was part of the whole Mez bringing Lilja down thing.

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh?

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 3, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

What?

Commenter formerly known as M from Pdaddy, but still just Call Me "M"!

DISCLAIMER: Information written above may not be entirely factual nor provable with the use of complex statistics. But it may induce thought, humor and possibly laughter.

by MJDII on Jan 3, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Whatever else the Flyers do, they need to re-sign Matt Carle.

I man crush on Matt because:

1. He’s a great defensive DMan even though he isn’t a particularly physical player.

2. He’s a great offensive DMan without compromising on the defensive end.

So there…

I took two vicodin an hour ago. I apologize for not making more sense…

by alaskalovestheflyers on Jan 3, 2012 5:39 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks. They’re prescribed. My doc will give me lots, but I limit myself to two tablets, once a week at most when the knee is unbearable. Today is the first time in over a month. I guess I’m lucky, they give me a terrible headache, so I have to be hurting awfully bad to want to use them. I won’t be going out or driving until tomorrow morning…

by alaskalovestheflyers on Jan 3, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Off-topic, but it just occurred to me that over the course of the next year we are going to be subject to WC highlights from this year – when they name the next teams and venue, then all the in-season hype.

It’s like the ’10 SCF all over again. Less painful, more annoying.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Jan 3, 2012 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

Andreas Lilja is the Kris Versteeg of the 11-12 Flyers. Was he ever even here?

by chicagoflyer74 on Jan 3, 2012 9:10 PM EST reply actions  

If the Flyers can trade Lilja for a 2nd and a 3rd, I’d be ecstatic.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 3, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Lilja and Walker for Bryan Allen and a 5th.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Jan 3, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Flyers can trade Lilja for a 2nd and a 3rd 6th or a 7th, I’d be ecstatic.

FTFY

Bob.

by The Dark on Jan 3, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Flyers can trade Lilja for a 2nd and a 3rd, a bottle of air I’d be ecstatic.

Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.

That is all.

by EREX21 on Jan 4, 2012 7:03 AM EST up reply actions  

How about a can of Perri-air?

Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced

by hintzy64 on Jan 4, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I wish we would have kept Versteeg he is playing very well in south Florida.

"When the Flyers win a playoff series, as they did this past year, is when you yell at me for being wrong? Because I said the Flyers won’t win a round'?
Geoff Detweiler.

by Mattx on Jan 4, 2012 3:28 AM EST up reply actions  


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