A Visit from Il Signore Regresso, Peter Laviolette's Personal Demon

by mikefive on Feb 16, 2012 10:15 AM EST

Bumped to the front page from the FanPosts. - Travis

After the first half of the season, the Flyers were 25-12-4 with 54 points; this put them on pace for a record of 50-24-8 for 108 points. Puck Prospectus predicted that the Flyers would have a second-half slump of 6 points; this would mean they'd finish with 102 points instead of 108. No big deal, right? That's still more than enough for a playoff spot, and possibly even a division title. But given the Flyers' losses of late to certain teams they should beat (the Islanders); given their being outclassed by the Rangers time and again; and given their sloppy defensive zone coverage in general lately, we all began to wonder if home ice was attainable. When we combined this issue with the Flyers' March struggles under Laviolette, things began to look even more grim.

So I decided to revisit this article which details how Peter Laviolette's teams fare in the final 35 games of a given season. I wrote it this past April because the Flyers had a very poor showing in March, and everyone was concerned that the dominant team of October - February was going up in flames. Everyone turned out to be correct of course, but not before we learned a valuable lesson: Peter Laviolette's teams stumble down the stretch more often than not, and their records over the final 35 games often have little bearing on how they perform in the playoffs.

Before the jump, let me just say this: As someone who has seen the team endure some spectacular collapses over the years (thanks, 1990-91 team!), I understand the fear that the Flyers could miss the playoffs. But I have some good news: Even given the regression tendency of Laviolette's teams, this Flyers group should have more than enough points for a playoff spot.

I'VE GOT SOME 'SPLAININ' TO DO...

Before you go racing over to hockey-reference.com and tell me that my numbers are wrong, let me explain how this standings system works. Given the fact that Laviolette began coaching in the days before shootouts, I need to have some analog with ye olde tie games. Because of the NHL's former way of doing things, I treat shootout appearances (wins and losses alike) as tie games. PLEASE NOTE THAT I AM NOT TRYING TO DISMISS THE LEGITIMACY OF THE SHOOTOUT OR WHATEVER, SO DON'T START. Here's what the numbers mean:

First Column: Wins in Regulation and 5:00 OT Period.
Second Column: Losses in Regulation and 5:00 OT Period.
Third Column: Ties (2001-2004) / Shootout Appearances (2005-Present).

FWIW, Geoff used to use this system to determine NHL Power Rankings, so if you see references to "power rankings" in here you know why.

Here's how everyone has done under Laviolette ~~from Justin to Kelly~~ from the Islanders to the present. Yes, I'm duplicating some of the data from the previous article. Deal:

FIRST 47 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON:

2001-02 NYI: 24-16-5
2002-03 NYI: 21-19-5
2003-04 CAR: 7-9-1 *
2005-06 CAR: 29-14-4
2006-07 CAR: 24-20-3
2007-08 CAR: 21-24-2
2008-09 CAR: 11-12-2 #
2009-10 PHI: 9-11-2 $
2010-11 PHI: 30-13-4
2011-12 PHI: 28-16-3

FINAL 35 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON:

2001-02 NYI: 18-14-3
2002-03 NYI: 13-15-7
2003-04 CAR: 13-17-5 *
2005-06 CAR: 15-14-6
2006-07 CAR: 16-17-2
2007-08 CAR: 18-12-5
2009-10 PHI: 17-16-2 $
2010-11 PHI: 14-15-6
2011-12 PHI: 2-4-3 (as of 2/14/12)

Laviolette's Win Percentage, Final 35 Games (ALL YEARS): .443

Laviolette's Win Percentage, Final 35 Games (PLAYOFF YEARS): .440

Laviolette's Win Percentage, Final 35 Games (NON-PLAYOFF YEARS): .448

PLAYOFFS?!?!? PLEASE, DO TALK ABOUT... PLAYOFFS:

2001-02 NYI: Lost 3-4 to Toronto in Conference Quarterfinals (Record: 3-4)
2002-03 NYI: Lost 1-4 to Ottawa in Conference Quarterfinals (Record: 1-4)
2003-04 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2005-06 CAR: WON STANLEY CUP (Record: 16-9)
2006-07 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2007-08 CAR: Did Not Qualify
2009-10 PHI: Lost 2-4 to Chicago in Stanley Cup Finals (Record: 14-9)
2010-11 PHI: Lost 0-4 to Boston in Conference Semifinals (Record: 4-7)
2011-12 PHI: ???

Laviolette's Playoff Win Percentage: .535

KEY:

* : Mid-Season Replacement for Paul Maurice; first-half record is from Games 31-47.

# : Fired 25 games into Regular Season.

$ : Mid-Season Replacement for John Stevens; first-half record is from Games 26-47.

WHAT SHOULD WE BE LOOKING AT HERE?

I include the first 47 games just to show how much Laviolette's teams regress in the second half. By my measurements in the other article, five of the eight teams that Laviolette has coached have regressed in the final 35 games; one remained consistent, and two improved slightly. So yes, what we're experiencing now is a visit from Laviolette's personal demon, whom I have named Il Signore Regresso. In other words, it's what we were afraid of.

With that in mind, let's try to predict how the Flyers will finish. I figure on something like this:

Possible "Power Rankings" Record over Final 35: 15-15-5

Total "Power Rankings" Record for the Season: 43-31-8

Possible Record: 45-29-8, 98 POINTS

I'MA AXE YOU SOME QUESTIONS TO SEE IF YOU'RE 100 PROOF

Q: Okay, where did you get those numbers?

A: Scroll up and look at Laviolette's win percentages during the final 35 games. Yes, it's slightly higher in years where he does not make the playoffs than when he does (eight tenths of a percent). But that's not much at all. So I used his average winning percentage / final 35 games (.443) to figure out that the Flyers would win 15 of those games in regulation or overtime.

Q: Fine, but what about the 15 regulation or overtime losses? And how did you come up with 5 shootout appearances?

A: I'm glad you asked:

Laviolettes' Regulation / OT Loss Percentage, Final 35 Games: .428

Laviolette's Percentage of Final 35 Games That Go to Shootout: .129

Multiply those numbers by 35 and you get 15 and 5, respectively.

Q: Okay, how was 43-31-8 magically transformed into 45-29-8?

A: Shootouts, y'all. The record of 45-29-8 is based on the Flyers' .339 win percentage in shootouts. (They're 20-39 all time.) So yes, I'm saying that the Flyers will go to two more shootouts this year and win them. They'll also lose a game in overtime somewhere along the way. I forget how I reached that last conclusion, but I did.

Q: So, given Laviolette's frequent visitations from Il Signore Regresso, it looks like the Flyers may regress as much as TEN points and not six?

A: Yup. Still, 98 points should secure a playoff spot. You can forget about home ice, but quite frankly the Flyers have been much better on the road this season anyway. We can only hope that they don't open against Boston or New York.

Q: And once they make the playoffs...?

A: Laviolette's playoff winning percentage is .535, which equates to a 15-9 record over 28 games played. That's not too shabby, but you need 16 wins for the Stanley Cup. Fire him now!!!! But seriously, Laviolette's teams do better in the playoffs the further they go. As we learned the last two seasons, it's the second round which proves to be the toughest.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by Broad Street Hockey.

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Comments

Thanks for this. I’d been meaning to go over to LighthouseHockey and ask them about Laviolette’s time there, not specifically the first half/second half issue.

So the question is why. Does his aggressive forecheck scheme (don’t know if he’s always done that) wear his guys out? Too many minutes for top players? Doesn’t know how to downshift intensity? Practices a problem?

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Feb 15, 2012 2:51 PM EST reply actions

I suggested in the original article that it had something to do with the coaching system, seeing as how the regression has happened with every team he’s coached.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 15, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

More Data, Please

To answer those questions, it would be helpful to know a couple other things:
(1) Is the first-half/second-half division hiding something else? Month-to-month, if you see the spike early in the season but see regression consistently during succeeding months from, say, December through March, maybe it means that the team’s pressure-forward approach gets solved by more teams as the year progresses. Something like the anecdote that in baseball, pitching always looks stronger during the beginning of the season and hitting later.
(2) Does the W/L slump correlate more strongly with a decrease in goals scored or an increase in goals scored against? Here, we might confirm that opposing defenses “solve” the pressure attack after a series of initial reverses or that the system over the long term simply gives too many opportunities to opponents to score. If neither correlates strongly, then, well, maybe it’s coaching style or burnout or something like that.

by OCOrange on Feb 15, 2012 3:49 PM EST reply actions

These are excellent questions. Hopefully I will have time to try to answer them in the way you wish; doing so would certainly help to clarify whether the regression is caused by burnout / coaching style (as I suggested in the original article) or something else entirely. My personal feeling is that the coaching style has something to do with it, seeing as how the regression has happened everywhere he’s coached. Then again, a potential regression in goal scoring, defense, or goaltending could certainly have something to do with fatigue (brought on by Lavy’s demanding system). It’s a chicken-egg question I guess, but ascertaining the data would certainly be worthwhile.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 15, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Unique to Lavy?

I would not be surprised to see something of a second-half slump for a lot of teams, not just something that’s unique to Laviolette’s teams. Injuries, fatigue, travel, etc., all taking their toll.

by Buckwsr on Feb 16, 2012 10:49 AM EST reply actions

What would also be interesting would be to identify coaches who have the opposite record, teams that perform better in the second half.

And then look at the playoff records.

/s, more often than not

by flyersfaninchicago on Feb 16, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

Different sport but you have the Phillies who are a second half team.

Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.

That is all.

by EREX21 on Feb 16, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

The Eagles too. Takes a while for Reid to get things rolling smoothly. That’s why the lockout was so painful.

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Feb 18, 2012 4:30 AM EST up reply actions

We can only hope that they don’t open against Boston or New York

I may have mentioned this before in another thread, but let’s face it, to make it to the cup final the flyers will more than likely see at least one of these two teams in the playoffs. Is a second round defeat any better than a first round exit? I realize that this year in the eyes of many was not a year in which a lot was expected of this team (many new younger pieces), and especially as the list of significant injuries grows I don’t know how far we should really expect this team to go no matter who the match up is.

I go Bananas for Wayne Simmonds.

by bfrank27 on Feb 16, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions

I don’t expect them to get very far either. I think a playoff berth and a second-round exit would be fine, quite frankly. It gives our plethora of young players some playoff experience. It would be nice if part of that experience included winning a round.

I was just thinking last night… the Montreal Canadiens swept the Flyers in the regular season in 2007-08, then won the first playoff game. Then the Flyers won the next four to win the series. I was thinking about this in the context of our struggles against the Rangers… the whole “You never know what may happen” deal.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 16, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah Montreal was huge favorites heading into that round. And yet the Flyers still pulled through. The playoffs are a strange beast.

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Feb 18, 2012 4:31 AM EST up reply actions

I just want to say thank you for the Biz Markie reference.

And all I've done for want of wit, To mem'ry now I can't recall.
So fill to me the parting glass, Good night and joy be with you all.

by PyropenguinX on Feb 16, 2012 1:35 PM EST reply actions

About a coach named Blah-Blah-Blah that adored me…

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 16, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

The Wall Street Journal yesterday cited an interesting statistic: More than 79% of NHL coaches are fired within their first 4 years. Hang in there Lavy, your heading toward the twilight of your Flyers career.

"All the experts come out, all the pundits come out with their opinions...the truth of the matter is if they knew anything about the game, they'd be in it" - George McPhee, General Manager, Washington Capitals.

by Nico97 on Feb 16, 2012 1:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Years ago, the New York Times did an article which showed the median and average lifespans of coaches in each of the four major professional sports. I believe the average NHL coach held his job for 2.5 seasons. Lavy will be above that by the end of the season.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Feb 16, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

The original article was a story about the Predators coach Barry Trotz and his marathon coaching career. I had forgotten just how long he’s been Nashville’s coach, their only coach…unfortunately I don’t think we will ever see a Flyers organization being that patient.

by Nico97 on Feb 17, 2012 12:11 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I’m giving Lavy a free pass this year. While I suspect he grinds teams into the ice of which there’s pretty damming evidence of last year (I’ll elaborate on this later….gotta find my graph), it ‘s pretty hard to ask any coach to produce when you’ve just gutted a perfectly good SC contender and rebuilt it with rookies.

by j reed on Feb 25, 2012 6:03 PM EST reply actions