Just How Rare Is Matt Read?
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 10:00 AM EST
in Philadelphia Flyers Commentary
Email
Print
Hi. My name is Geoff and I am a Matt Read skeptic. Surely this isn't news to most of you - what aren't I skeptical about? - but sometimes, it's good to admit these things openly.
If you recall, when the Flyers signed Matt Read in March of last year, I was heavy on the skepticism. Signing a 24 year old undrafted college player is playing the odds already. Hoping they become a 15 goal scorer their rookie year is like wishing for a Golden Ticket, but only buying two Wonka bars; it is so unlikely it's difficult to calculate the chances.*
Yet here we are, 50 games into the season and Matt Read already has 16 goals in 47 games. This was highly unexpected to say the least, but just how unexpected is it?
*Yes, I know he got a third for his birthday.
Thanks to Hockey Reference's fantastic Play Index, we can find out rather easily.
Matt Read is a 25 year old rookie who has scored 0.34 goals per game over 47 games. Pretty easy to set criteria around that, just punch in (1) rookies (2) age 24 or older (3) with at least 45 games played and (4) 0.3 goals per game.
First, though, some background. Since 1917, there have been 1,582 players to debut at age 24 or older. Of those, only 861 players have scored a goal in that rookie season. That's already pretty uncommon, but just how rare is Matt Read:
- Only 36 players since 1917 have done what Matt Read has done this season.
- Of those 36, seven occurred in the Original Six era and six occurred in the first year after the NHL and WHA merged (with five of the six on former WHA teams).
- There have only been three players to accomplish the feat since the lockout. The lockout of 1994. Sergei Berezin scored 25 goals in 73 games for the 1996-97 Maple Leafs on his way to a 7 year, 160 goal career.
- Since the 2004 lockout, Matt Read joins Ryan Craig as the only players to score 0.3 goals as a 24 year old rookie.
- Read is the second Flyer to do this, joining Bill Sutherland, who scored 20 goals in 60 games for the expansion Flyers. Sutherland was 33 and this was his career high in goals.
- At least two other players** with connections to the Flyers accomplished the feat, as future Flyers Hall of Famer Mark Howe scored 24 goals as a 24 year old rookie for the Hartford Whalers and current assistant coach Joe Mullen scored 25 goals in 45 games as a 24 year old rookie for the St. Louis Blues.
So good job, Matt. You have done what very few have done before you. In fact, you are in the 97th percentile for 24 year old rookie skaters. A remarkable accomplishment indeed.
** There could be more, I just don't recognize any of the other names.
63 comments
|
Add comment
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
what a great read
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
"I got a crosscheck to the face and lost a bunch of teeth. You battle through it. That’s the way hockey players are made." - Claude Giroux
Folks, seriously? This pun has gone on long enough, I’m tired of Reading terrible puns everything thread…
Party pooper.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
by doubleh on Feb 4, 2012 10:56 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Did you miss his own pun in there?
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Nope, just playing the curmudgeon.
"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn
by doubleh on Feb 4, 2012 3:43 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
but the guy has an uncanny ability to Read the play!
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
"I got a crosscheck to the face and lost a bunch of teeth. You battle through it. That’s the way hockey players are made." - Claude Giroux
Read is the man and I think he has what it takes to be productive in this lesague for years to come. He has the right combination of speed, vision, strength, and a fantastic stick. These type of players don’t come from college too often so I think that goes to show that a little faith in the organization from the FO to scouting is well deserved.
by kckrebs on Feb 4, 2012 10:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Can anyone go one step deeper and find out how many of those 36 players were undrafted? THAT would make for a good Read.
by Baron De La Warr on Feb 4, 2012 10:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Just by eyeballing those pages and looking for “Drafted By _” at the top of the page, I think about 20 of them were drafted. Not too surprising—at that age they aren’t in the draft that frequently, no?
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Feb 4, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
As EverybodyHits says, it can be done, it would just take 35 clicks to figure out.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Does WHA Draft count as being drafted?
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
This is a good question.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Bill Flett’s first transaction was being claimed in an expansion draft. Does that count?
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
The NHL Draft came into existence in 1963, per Wikipedia. So any count of players drafted would have to start there. Seeing as six of the 36 entered the league before that, they will not count toward that list. Would they have been drafted had there been a draft then? I don’t know. I recognize a grand total of zero of those names, though I am sure Joe Benoit’s name and number hang in the Bell Centre rafters.
Out of the 30 people who meet the Matt Read requirements and entered the league in the age of the Draft (1963 and later), here is the list of people who were never, ever drafted in any sort of draft whatsoever.
John Ferguson, Sr.
Inge Hammarstrom
Ulf Nilsson
Anders Hedberg
Peter Stastny
Jorgen Pettersson
Marian Stastny
Joe Mullen
Todd Krygier
Matt Read
The following were drafted, but in another draft not the NHL. (expansion, WHA, Czechoslovakian Entry Draft)
Bill Sutherland
Bill Flett
Rich Preston
Ivan Hlinka
In total, nine players were never, ever drafted. Four players were not drafted in the NHL, but taken in some other draft.
Perhaps the biggest thing I am taking from this exercise is not the numbers or the percentages of those like Read who were never drafted, but the fact that Matt Read is the first player since Todd Krygier entered the league in 1989 to be 24 years of age or older, play 47 games or more, and average .3 goals or more per game while being undrafted.
Golden Ticket, indeed.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
** There could be more, I just don’t recognize any of the other names.
BILL FLETT!
INGE HAMMARSTROM!
GET OFF MY LAWN!
Geoff must have been tired
Bill Flett! No way he didn’t realize, he just didn’t see it. Had to have been, right? Right? I mean, it was late.
Anyway, great post Geoff and even better playing, Reader! (As if Matt Read can hear me….)
by Georgia_Flyer on Feb 4, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
haha, You’re lucky I recognized Tony Granato. Anyone earlier than that, and I’m lying.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Touche.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Hockey-Reference’s play index (and football-reference’s, and baseball- and basketball-reference’s) are the best freaking thing ever.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Feb 4, 2012 11:31 AM EST reply actions
They’re really amazing.
I got this idea at 10:30 last night, was done writing it by 11:20 pm.
That’s how easy Play Index is.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
yay, have Droid, can now use app!!
ecnewman on flyersfaithful.com
by f2yers8 on Feb 4, 2012 12:01 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Geoff, is this article a sort of back-handed way of saying you might have been wrong in your initial skepticism? I looked back at the linked comments and read carefully this aricle, and am almost more amazed at the artful evasiveness and noncommittal language than I am about Read achievements.
Admit it Geoff!
Often wrong, but never in doubt.
by A Flyers Phamily on Feb 4, 2012 12:33 PM EST reply actions
Geoff, is this article a sort of back-handed way of saying you might have been wrong in your initial skepticism?
Nope. It’s an explanation for my skepticism. :)
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
so he was Reading too much into it.
we should sign someone named Wright. Or a descendant of Georg Ludwig Math, who arrived in Pennsylvania in 1751.
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Feb 4, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
hahaha pretty much.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
It should be coming…
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Feb 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Does that mean it is coming? Because I can post a FanShot easily enough. I already found a picture.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
It should really be coming, I think. I went to look at the draft of it to see if it was schedule and just didn’t post, and go a warning that Shaun was already editing it.
Warning: Arguing the NHL CBA with me could be hazardous to your mental health. Proceed at your own risk.
by DragonGirl0583 on Feb 4, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
HEY HEY HEY
where in the wild wild world of sports is a first period thread?
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
"I got a crosscheck to the face and lost a bunch of teeth. You battle through it. That’s the way hockey players are made." - Claude Giroux
dg can you make 1? or does trav got the times mixed up again
Beets,Bears,Battlestar Galactica.
MICHAEL!
Political Correctness - the belief that one can pick up a turd by the clean end.
"I got a crosscheck to the face and lost a bunch of teeth. You battle through it. That’s the way hockey players are made." - Claude Giroux
Game thread, please? Now?
/s, more often than not
by flyersfaninchicago on Feb 4, 2012 1:09 PM EST reply actions
Game-thread!
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Game-thread!
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I even put it in bullets!
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 4, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Skepticism
Detweiler, get out from behind your computer once in a while and watch the kid play. You’d be surprised how different things are when you’re not trying to get a computer program to show you how good someone is.
I enjoyed your idiotic statements last summer about how Read was a 24 yr old beating up on an 18 yr olds, etc… It goes to show how little you know about hockey that is non-Flyers. It is not uncommon for guys to play as a 20 year old freshman in college. It comes as no surprise that some guys bloom late in college, which is a great find for the team that picks them up.
You seemingly had Read pegged as a career AHLer because Nodl and Testuwide couldn’t get the job done. However, neither of those guys have the hockey smarts that Read has. You might have seen that over the course of this season watching the Flyers, but you chose to wait for a program to tell you he’s pretty good? Lame!
I can’t begin to understand why the media and fans choose to focus on Couturier and Schenn and not on Read, even though he is outperforming both of them statistically, (except +/-). Maybe it’s because lowly, old and undrafted Matt Read played college hockey in Nowheresville MN and wasn’t part of the trade that sent two of the Flyers fan favorites away.
I think that more respect should be given to Reado. Matty has a nose for the net, is rarely out of position, has great vision, he’s fast, has great hands, a solid passer, and he’s an unselfish player. Is there a computer program that takes those things into consideration? If so, I’d like to see those numbers.
And yes, Geoff, you pegged this one wrong. Or maybe your fantasy hockey stuff got it wrong for you.
clap clap clap
Beautiful. Just amazing.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Aww man, I was waiting for the salmon block fest. *Puts away popcorn.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*
by JerseyDriver on Feb 5, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone who starts with
“Detweiler, get out from behind your computer once in a while and watch the kid play.”
is not going to listen to what I have to say. He already throws a cliche out there, ignoring the fact that I watch every game, and clinging to this notion that Matt Read’s season was completely predictable.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I just loved the fact that he obviously reads here, and then used +/-. Totally threw me, unless that was supposed to be a joke. Of the whole thing was a joke, but I couldn’t tell.
G, the second coming of Foppa.
Embrace the Jagr.*
by JerseyDriver on Feb 5, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t think it was a joke. He has five comments on BSH, the one immediately before this one is titled Reado!!
He’s a big Matt Read fan. Which is fine, but what I don’t understand is how his fans are "of course he would be a 15/20 goal scorer in the NHL!" instead of "This is amazing, he took such an unconventional path, I’m so happy he’s succeeding".
Or, more importantly, why those two groups disparage the other.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Or, more importantly, why those two groups disparage the other.
This is the part that baffles me. Two groups who are ecstatic that Read is doing well, hating on each other because one group didn’t see this coming and is surprised and happy, while the other claims they knew it all along. So weird.
As for this particular comment, I thought maybe you were just trying to be nice to new folks for a change. :-p
But you’re right, with the way he opens the comment, he obviously has no interest in anything you have to say. So he likes Read, we like Read, that’s good enough.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
Two groups who are ecstatic that Read is doing well, hating on each other because one group didn’t see this coming and is surprised and happy, while the other claims they knew it all along. So weird.
Yeah, I refuse to believe anybody knew it all along – except those are are biased into wanting to believe he would do it, i.e. family, classmates, former teammates, Bemidji Alum, etc. – but seriously? Here’s BSH giving Matt Read props, and this isn’t good enough for some reason.
As for this particular comment, I thought maybe you were just trying to be nice to new folks for a change. :-p
And to think, I thought I was being dismissive and rude.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Key word: claims they knew it all along
But yeah, you’re praising Read and being given shit for it. Lightning rod.
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
haha, yup.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Now see this, PoL? This would have been a good experimental scenario for you. :-p
Lightning strikes once, Hextall strikes twice!
"I think there is virtue in pissing off idiots." - Fehr and Balanced
I was thinking the exact same thing.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 5, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Broad Street Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SBNation.com Recent Stories
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Why the Devils and the Kings are evidence the Capitals shouldn’t trade Alex Ovechkin
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
- Devils eliminate Rangers in Game 6, ending fear of the past, setting course for the future
