FanPost

Holy Mathematics Batman!: Numerical analysis of Flyers Rumors

As fans of the Philadelphia Flyers, every offseason one can always expect a ton of rumors around the biggest prizes of the offseason class. The Flyers are a big market team and always seem to be right at the center of the major rumors, and this year is no different. This year there are several major free agents/trade targets, those guys are Rick Nash (definitely getting moved), Zach Parise (very likely to leave New Jersey, see: financial crisis in New Jersey), Ryan Suter (definitely not coming to Philadelphia, as he stated he has no intention), and Shea Weber (definitely not leaving Nashville, but fun to dream).

I will start with a public service announcement that all of these are hypothetical scenarios done for fun, in no way am I suggesting that any of these scenarios are or are likely to happen, this is just some fun I had on capgeek.com with all of the recent rumors surrounding the Flyers.

The first rumor, which I think is by far the most likely to happen, is trading for Rick Nash, the Flyers are interested, have young players and a young goaltender, and surprisingly have the cap room this year. So lets get started, here is the roster that I formed.

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Jakub Voracek ($3.000m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Brian Rolston ($2.000m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Dennis Wideman ($5.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Andreas Lilja ($0.738m)
Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.900m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,896,944; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,403,056

A few names you dont see on that list, Jaromir Jagr, James VanRiemsdyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Matt Carle. The hypothetical deal for Nash involves sending JVR and Bob to Columbus for Rick Nash, JVR will likely have to be involved and the addition of Bob would give the Jackets everything they wanted out of a Nash deal and could get it done.

The players added are of course Nash, Brian Rolston, who I would really like to be a Flyer at a price of 1.5-2 million because of his skills on defense and good shot from the point for the power play, I feel he could be a very valuable piece, Dennis Wideman, who is a very good defender along with excellent offense, and finally the signing of a new backup, good old Marty Biron, who is a very good backup (unfortunately for his career its his best way).

Resigned players include Marc-Andre Bourdon at a cheap 900,000 dollar contract, though I think it could be as high as 1 mil, and Jake Voracek, with a very generous 3 million (I don't think it will be much higher than 2.5 in all hopes).

Players added or resigned: Jake Voracek, Brian Rolston, Dennis Wideman, Martin Biron, Rick Nash, Marc-Andre Bourdon

Players lost: Jaromir Jagr, James VanRiemsdyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Carle, Jody Shelley (minors)

The second of the rumors I simulated is the second most likely scenario due to cap situation, the signing of Zach Parise. Parise will garner at least 7 million no doubt, if you give him a long contract for 7-7.5 or a shorter one for about 8. Yes, that is a lot of money, Parise is going to cost a ton because of his stature as one of the best free agents in recent years, so I have him in at 7.5 million.

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Zach Parise ($7.500m)
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Jakub Voracek ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Brian Rolston ($1.500m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
Tom Sestito ($0.700m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Dennis Wideman ($5.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($1.000m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,396,944; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,903,056

This once again sees the signing of Brian Rolston, Dennis Wideman, and Martin Biron, it's very similar to the Rick Nash Flyers, but with less generous contracts for Voracek and Rolston, more of what I think they will actually get, and of course JVR and Bob are traded...I guess for draft picks, would be tougher to start predicting players received in trades in these things.

Players added/lost: see above, but with Parise

The final rumor I just had some fun with is the outrageous idea that Nashville would trade who I feel is the best defenseman in the league, Shea Weber. Shea Weber, because he is the best, is going to look for a ton of money, it will be a record contract, as I think he will eventually be signed for about 8 million a season, especially after the Drew Doughty contract, so Shea's is quite different than the other two simulations, as the Flyers would still need to sign a forward to replace JVR (again, would have to be traded to Nashville to get Weber).

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Alexander Semin ($5.000m)
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Jakub Voracek ($2.500m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Brian Rolston ($1.750m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Shea Weber ($8.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($1.000m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Andrew Raycroft ($0.700m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,646,944; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $653,056

Here we see Weber added to the team for a very high 8 million dollars a season, also added to the team is forward Alex Semin, here I'm assuming that Semin still has a chip on his shoulder in the NHL and is willing to sign a lesser contract to stay in the NHL, and the Flyers could hope to resurrect this 40 goal scorer back to his old form. also signed at forward are Brian Rolston and Dominic Moore, Moore is actually a very underrated player, a very hard worker and great defensive forward, something the Flyers could definitely use. Also added is one of the cheapest backups I can find, Andrew Raycroft, this would not be ideal for me as I think goalies shouldn't play 70 games or more, which in this case Bryz would have to because well.....Andrew Raycroft is your backup. If, and that's a huge if, the Flyers could acquire Weber, working him down to about his previous contract of 7.5 million would be key, as not to press up against the cap like we have here.

Players added/re-signed: Jake Voracek, Dominic Moore, Alexander Semin, Brian Rolston, Shea Weber, Andrew Raycroft

Players lost: Jaromir Jagr, Matt Carle, James VanRiemsdyk, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jody Shelley (minors)

A few might be wondering where Chris Pronger is in any of these simulations, unfortunately for Pronger hockey should be the last thing on his mind right now, he needs to focus on getting his life back together, as right now he struggles with day to day functions and we can only hope he will be alright again, he will be on LTIR for the next 5 seasons to run out his contract not on the cap.

Overall, will any of these scenarios happen? probably not, but it's fun to dream right? and it's also fun to jump on capgeek and try to see what would happen if these scenarios happened. Rest assured it should be a fun offseason as hopefully the Flyers look to improve their forward defense, defense in the back end, and the acquisition of a veteran backup (unfortunately Bob's services are no longer needed, despite the fact that I believe he will be a fantastic goaltender some day).

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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