This is my first ever FanPost, so I'm sorry if it's crappy or doesn't conform to some sort of requirement or anything.
I just had to write this to get a friend to shut up about demanding the Flyers trade Claude Giroux, and figured since I already typed it up, I'll share it here as well. I was rough and a little generally with some of my stats just to keep it simple and rounded some of them to keep it easy as well. I don't believe I did so in any amount or spot that would affect the numbers and actually appreciable amount. Also for "career averages" for Giroux, I used from the 2009-2010 season onward.
Also, I love advanced stats, understand them and love watching you guys discuss them even more. I couldn't use them in my post to my friend because he staunchly opposes them so this post is more directly aimed at typical bonehead fans than our more accepting community. ANYWAY...let's get to it, shall we?
Really Giroux's not having THAAAAAT bad of a start. He's at .5 ppg right now, which for him is bad, yes, but still not awful for all hockey players. This is accounted for by a low shooting percentage, a low on-ice shooting percentage, and by a really crappy powerplay right now.
He's shooting an abysmal 2.9% shooting percentage and has 1 goal, his career average shooting percentage is 11.7%. His goal total this year so far if he had his career avg shooting percentage? 4. He's only 3 goals behind where he could be and we all know he'll have a stretch of a bunch of goals in a small window of games and will regress back up to the mean.
He has a career shots per game number of 2.4 shots per game, so if his number is appreciably lower we would be worried, but it's still 2.2, so that's not a big worry. He's still getting shots, he's just been unlucky shooting at a percentage lower than a lot of defensemen.
He has a career assists per game number of .63 assists per game, and at the current standing of .43 it's not that much lower but is mostly due to his on-ice shooting percentage (the shooting percentage of his teammates when he's out there with them) being a horrendous 5.1%, that too won't stay that low since his on ice shooting percentage every year has been almost double that. so that means his assists will go back up, almost doubling in fact which will be much higher than his career assists per game numbers.
He's having bad goaltending luck when he's on the ice as his own goalies sv% with him out there is the lowest on the team by far which is probably a indication of bad luck and not his direct fault, once that is corrected over time and regressed to the mean he'll have a better +/- (dumb stat anyway though, but I know you like it).
NOOOOOOOOOWW....the absolute biggest issue with Giroux's point total is the lack of PP success. This isn't a fault of him really, it's a fault of the system, the umbrella, and the coaching. There's critical problems with it that exist regardless of the players and all players are doing the same things in the same spots which points to the coaching and system. They're trying really long passes around the perimeter that allow plenty of time for defenders and goalies to set up and block shots and stop the ones that get through. The PP rate is 9.4%, 28th in the league. This is an abomination for this team due to previous years of PP success at 21.6, 19.7, 21.4, and even 16.6 in the one bad year. almost all of those are top 5 or 10 in the league. This year he has 1 powerplay point. After 21 of his 48 points last year being on the powerplay. It's no coincidence that he has a lower point total when the PP is that bad. If he was getting his average powerplay points he'd have 3.5 more points this season with that crappy pp%. BUT if our PP% was near where it has mostly been for his career with the Flyers you're looking at an insane jump up to an ADDITIONAL 8 (EIGHT) points on his stat line.
THIS WHOLE POWERPLAY ISSUE HAS COST HIM HIS ALREADY ACCRUED AMOUNT OF POINTS!!! He'd be a point per game player again! And that's JUST from fixing the PP up to it's normal level. Then you can add in his extra 3 goals his crappy shooting percentage is losing him and fix his assists to his average and you have a player who is hitting 25 points after 16 games! That's 1.56 points per game and that would put him 2nd in the league in PPG, but actually first if you make the cut off anyone who has played 4 or more games (Tyler Toffoli of the Kings has a 1.67 PPG in 3 games).
Yes, if Giroux and the team were just hitting career and 4 year averages he would be smoking the league. Unfortunately he's having a long streak of bad puck luck, but it will turn around and he will be amazing. Hopefully we saw that really start today, though after Scott Hartnell's first of the season and on the PP the other game, that could really be the first sign it's changing. Once Jakub Voracek gets on the board and shoots more, the line will be dangerous and the goals and points will come.
Giroux will be great again. Don't fear.
Thanks sooo much if you managed to stick through it all and read it. Let me know what you think, please!!