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Defining the performance of NHL lines: Flyers Forwards (Part 3)

In Part 1, I looked tried to define 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line players and separate them based on performance.

In part 2, I used that information to compare the average 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th liners to the Flyers forwards.

In Part 3, I am going to dive deeper into the Forward data.

One surprising thing I found in Part 2 of this series was that Voracek doesn't seem to be getting enough even strength minutes.

Let's look at the Flyers forwards by TOI and see who's getting too much TOI, who needs more TOI next season, and who's just about right.


SEASON NAME TEAM POS GP TOI/60 Corsi Relative Corsi On Corsi Rel QoC Corsi QoC On-Ice Sh% On-Ice Sv% PDO GF On/60 Rel GF/60 GA On/60 Rel GA/60 (negative is better) GF Off/60 GA Off/60 GD/60 Rel GD/60 Off Zone Start %
2012-2013 Season CLAUDEGIROUX PHI RW 48 15.09 9.8 0.99 0.262 1.184 9.23 887 979 2.9 0.88 3.48 1.02 2.02 2.46 -0.58 -0.14 47.3
2012-2013 Season MATTREAD PHI RW 42 13.6 0.7 -7.46 0.51 1.837 9.89 912 1011 2.73 0.52 2.63 -0.19 2.21 2.82 0.1 0.71 47
2012-2013 Season JAKUBVORACEK PHI RW 48 13.09 17.5 6.97 0.405 1.495 10.33 857 960 3.25 1.31 3.82 1.43 1.94 2.39 -0.57 -0.12 49.6
2012-2013 Season DANIELBRIERE PHI RW 34 12.7 -1.8 -5.7 -0.015 0.719 6.97 892 961 1.95 -0.71 3.48 0.82 2.66 2.66 -1.53 -1.53 51.2
2012-2013 Season BRAYDENSCHENN PHI C 47 12.65 2.9 -4.04 0.523 1.535 8.24 894 977 2.32 -0.01 3.13 0.38 2.33 2.75 -0.81 -0.39 52.8
2012-2013 Season SCOTTHARTNELL PHI RW 32 12.57 17.4 4.47 0.45 1.946 6.03 911 971 1.79 -0.44 2.39 -0.49 2.23 2.88 -0.6 0.05 49.8
2012-2013 Season JASONAKESON PHI RW 1 12.38 20.7 -4.85 2.635 10.913 25 1000 1250 9.69 9.69 0 -1.7 0 1.7 9.69 11.39 50
2012-2013 Season WAYNESIMMONDS PHI RW 45 12.2 1.4 -4.15 0.226 1.448 7.3 914 987 2.19 -0.18 2.73 -0.18 2.37 2.91 -0.54 0 49.7
2012-2013 Season SIMONGAGNE PHI LW 38 11.91 -3 -3.18 0.356 1.948 8.18 908 990 2.39 0.29 2.65 -0.07 2.1 2.72 -0.26 0.36 52.6
2012-2013 Season MAXIMETALBOT PHI C 35 11.6 -10.8 -11.23 1.333 1.544 8.7 917 1004 2.36 0.47 2.36 -0.52 1.89 2.88 0 0.99 35.2
2012-2013 Season SEANCOUTURIER PHI C 46 11.39 2.1 -4.24 0.952 1.936 7.26 887 960 2.06 -0.31 3.09 0.5 2.37 2.59 -1.03 -0.81 32.1
2012-2013 Season TYEMCGINN PHI LW 18 11.02 15.2 13.61 0.101 0.237 6.86 908 977 2.12 -0.23 2.12 -1.46 2.35 3.58 0 1.23 50.4
2012-2013 Season SCOTTLAUGHTON PHI C 5 10.99 -15.7 -15.28 -0.593 -0.825 0 1000 1000 0 -2.28 0 -1.14 2.28 1.14 0 -1.14 29.6
2012-2013 Season MIKEKNUBLE PHI RW 28 10.9 -1.6 -7.08 0.496 0.627 7.52 898 973 1.97 -0.7 2.75 -0.57 2.67 3.32 -0.78 -0.13 43.5
2012-2013 Season RUSLANFEDOTENKO PHI LW 47 9.48 -13.8 -16.29 0.232 0.699 11.36 929 1043 2.69 0.49 2.02 -1.01 2.2 3.03 0.67 1.5 35.7
2012-2013 Season ERICWELLWOOD PHI C 4 8.83 -8.5 -6.8 -0.336 0.125 0 1000 1000 0 -1.32 0 -1.32 1.32 1.32 0 0 52.6
2012-2013 Season ADAMHALL PHI LW 37 8.39 -14 -19.33 0.105 1.132 6.96 946 1016 1.55 -1.45 1.55 -1.53 3 3.08 0 0.08 16.1
2012-2013 Season ZACRINALDO PHI LW 32 8.32 -17.3 -18.7 -0.236 0.36 5.88 892 950 1.13 -1.27 2.93 -0.01 2.4 2.94 -1.8 -1.26 39.3
2012-2013 Season JODYSHELLEY PHI LW 1 7.97 -31 -7.53 -0.833 2.479 - 1000 - 0 -1.47 0 0 1.47 0 0 -1.47 60
2012-2013 Season HARRYZOLNIERCZYKK PHI LW 7 7.32 -35.9 -29.28 -0.922 -1.864 5 967 1017 1.17 -2.57 1.17 -0.81 3.74 1.98 0 -1.76 52.4

Obviously Voracek needs more ice time. With 22 goals and 46 points, Voracek's production was the best of any Flyers forward. He was an elite driver of possession (Rel Corsi of 17.5). Compare that to Giroux (Rel Corsi of 9.8 playing against easier competition).

Danny Briere recieved too many even strength minutes in my opinion, but since he is going to be bought out this summer I don't feel the need to cover Briere too much. Based on his performance he was overplayed, and unless a top 6 forward is brought in to replace Briere next season the Flyers coaches will have to distribute Briere's minutes to some of the better Flyers forwards.

Matt Read's ice time was a bit surprising. With 13.6 minutes per game at even strength, he finished second among Flyers forwards. While Read is a solid player, he isn't first line material. Finishing only with a Rel Corsi of .7, Read's ice time should in my opinion be dropped to second line levels. With less ice time, Read's performance may improve (since Read will be better rested), and better players like Voracek will receive those minutes (which will benefit the Flyers).

Brayden Schenn is definitely someone I could imagine getting a slight increase in avg ice time. I found that Schenn was playing well last year given his young age of 21. Facing average 2nd line competition, Schenn's Rel Corsi of 2.9 is impressive for the youngster. While I don't believe he should be receiving first line minutes yet, a little bit more ice time per game would not hurt.

Scott hartnell is definitely someone who I hope is put back on the first line for next year. His Rel Corsi puts him in an elite category among forwards, and his WOWY numbers point towards him playing well with Voracek and Giroux. I've already discussed in part 2 how we should expect a bounce back year from Hartnell.

Being an older player, I'd prefer to decrease the minutes given to Gagne next season. Gagne's performance has (predictably) slowed as he has aged, and decreasing his TOI slightly will both benefit Gagne and give more minutes to a player who can do more in those minutes.

Tye McGinn played decent minutes with the Flyers in 18 games. I hope he recieves the same amount of TOI per game next season. He played very well driving possession forward during his time in the NHL, and hopefully he can continue to play well in a more extended stay next season.

I am a big fan of Sean Couturier. I noted in my last post that aside from Talbot, Couturier played the toughest minutes for Flyers forwards. With a 32.1% O-zone start % and a .952 Rel Corsi QoC, Coots managed to still put up a positive Rel Corsi. It is these tough defensive minutes that is stalling the offensive development of Couturier. Giving Couturier more offensive minutes would definitely allow us to see how good Couturier could be. However, the Flyers are so deep at the center position (giroux, Schenn, Couturier) with young talented players that it is tough to not play Couturier in a shut down center role (given how good he is in that role).

I definitely hope the Flyers can be creative in finding Couturier offensive minutes next season, as Couturier is one of the most important players on the Flyers roster.

An interesting thing I noticed in the zone start data was that Flyers don't go the Canuck route and give their top players a ton of O-zone starts. While Talbot and Couturier received the lion-share of the D-zone starts as a third line, the top line of Giroux and Voracek are actually below the 50% mark for O-zone start%

In general I am a fan of how the Canucks give favorable zone starts to their top offensive players. I'd love to see Giroux and Voracek given more O-zone starts, but I don't think that is Laviolette's philosophy, so it probably won't happen.

Now, Let's take a quick look at the Powerplay and Penalty kill for the Flyers. The Flyers ranked 4th in NHL in Powerplay Goals per 60 minutes and and were 5th best in Penalty Kill goals against per 60 min.

Special teams was one of bright spots for the Flyers last season.

Here are the Flyers forwards Power play stats from Stats.hockeyanalysis.com

<!--StartFragment--> <!--EndFragment-->
Player Name Team TOI G A FirstA Points Shots iFenwick iCorsi ShPct G/60 A/60 FirstA/60 Points/60 Shots/60 iFenwick/60 iCorsi/60 IGP IAP IPP
GIROUX, CLAUDE Philadelphia 168:16:00 5 14 7 19 31 47 67 16.13 1.783 4.992 2.496 6.78 11.05 16.759 23.891 18.5 51.9 70.4
VORACEK, JAKUB Philadelphia 166:14:00 8 7 4 15 52 68 90 15.38 2.888 2.527 1.444 5.41 18.77 24.544 32.484 32 28 60
SIMMONDS, WAYNE Philadelphia 140:03:00 5 9 4 14 27 35 40 18.52 2.142 3.856 1.714 6 11.57 14.995 17.137 23.8 42.9 66.7
SCHENN, BRAYDEN Philadelphia 113:53:00 2 8 6 10 18 27 36 11.11 1.054 4.215 3.161 5.27 9.48 14.225 18.967 15.4 61.5 76.9
BRIERE, DANIEL Philadelphia 91:36:00 3 3 0 6 23 26 32 13.04 1.965 1.965 0 3.93 15.07 17.031 20.961 27.3 27.3 54.5
HARTNELL, SCOTT Philadelphia 91:32:00 3 1 1 4 18 28 30 16.67 1.966 0.655 0.655 2.62 11.8 18.354 19.665 21.4 7.1 28.6
READ, MATT Philadelphia 77:50:00 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 33.33 0.771 0.771 0.771 1.54 2.31 2.313 3.854 12.5 12.5 25
COUTURIER, SEAN Philadelphia 67:47:00 0 4 2 4 6 8 11 0 0 3.541 1.77 3.54 5.31 7.081 9.737 0 80 80
GAGNE, SIMON Philadelphia 59:52:00 2 2 0 4 10 13 17 20 2.005 2.005 0 4.01 10.02 13.029 17.038 40 40 80

The last three columns show the percent of goals while that player was on the ice that the player scored, assisted or had a point on.

Voracek lead the way with 8 goals, while Giroux lead the way with 19 points. However, that included 7 second assists, which we know (at least at even strength) are more luck than skill.

Couturier received only 67 minutes and 47 seconds of PP ice time. That needs to go up. He is too talented a player to not receive some more offensive minutes.

Brayden Schenn pitched 6 first assists, and his low goal total doesn't scare me considering his low SH% of 11.11%. I expect that to rise at least a little next year.

Here are the Flyers forwards who played 50 minutes or more on the Penalty kill

<!--StartFragment--> <!--EndFragment-->
Player Name Team TOI
FEDOTENKO, RUSLAN Philadelphia 122:14:00
COUTURIER, SEAN Philadelphia 108:05:00
TALBOT, MAXIME Philadelphia 108:03:00
READ, MATT Philadelphia 85:08:00
GIROUX, CLAUDE Philadelphia 78:18:00
HALL, ADAM Philadelphia 70:33:00

No suprise that Talbot, Couturier, and Fedotenko spent the most time on the Penalty kill.

So this wraps up the Flyers forwards. In part 4, I will introduce the defensemen part of this series.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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