- Retrieved the even strength, shorthanded and powerplay save % statistics for the top 60 goaltenders listed on NHL.com by save%. Bryz was listed as 60th on that list.
- Calculated average even strength, shorthanded and powerplay save %s based on the aggregate shots against and saves made. Those values were 0.924, 0.866 and 0.920 respectively. Aggregate average is 0.915. For simplicity and to stop me from needing to go through each game individually, I just used the aggregate average.
- Went through the Flyers games and retrieved all games in which the Flyers lost and Bryz was below average or the Flyers won and Bryz was above average. Obviously if they lost and Bryz was above average than Bryz being average would have resulted in a loss anyway, and the same deal if they won and Bryz was below average. Those games are listed as 'not eligible'.
- Calculated how many goals would have been scored Bryz been an average goaltender, and compared this to the margin of those games. The margin excluded empty net goals.
- This obviously can't include intangibles like momentum killing goals etc.
- Also obviously exclude games in which Bryz didn't start.
The rationale behind this exercise was that we often use save% to judge Bryz, but in a short season especially a few bad starts can skew that pretty badly. To take an extreme example, losing a game 100-0 where the opponent had 100 shots would kill your save% but only cost you two points on the standings. I came in with no real preconceptions but thought it would be interesting.
|DEC||GA||SA||SV%||EN GA||Eligible||GA(average)||Difference in GA||Margin||Excluding EN goals||New result|
|APR 25 '13 NYI @ PHI||W||1||22||0.955||0||Y||2||1||1||1||OT|
|APR 18 '13 NJD @ PHI||L||2||30||0.933||1||N||3||not eligible||-3||-2||No change|
|APR 15 '13 PHI @ MTL||W||3||28||0.893||0||N||2||not eligible||4||4||No change|
|APR 11 '13 OTT @ PHI||L||2||33||0.939||1||N||3||not eligible||-2||-1||No change|
|APR 6 '13 PHI @ WPG||L||4||16||0.75||0||Y||1||-3||-3||-3||OT|
|APR 4 '13 PHI @ TOR||W||3||28||0.893||0||N||2||not eligible||2||2||No change|
|APR 3 '13 MTL @ PHI||W||3||17||0.824||0||N||1||not eligible||2||2||No change|
|MAR 31 '13 WSH @ PHI||W||4||29||0.862||0||N||2||not eligible||1||1||No change|
|MAR 30 '13 BOS @ PHI||W||1||34||0.971||0||Y||3||2||2||2||OT|
|MAR 28 '13 NYI @ PHI||O||3||36||0.917||0||Y||3||0||0||0||No change|
|MAR 26 '13 NYR @ PHI||L||5||31||0.839||0||Y||3||-2||-3||-3||No change|
|MAR 24 '13 PHI @ PIT||O||2||35||0.943||0||N||3||not eligible||-1||-1||No change|
|MAR 18 '13 PHI @ TBL||L||3||26||0.885||1||Y||2||-1||-2||-1||OT|
|MAR 15 '13 NJD @ PHI||W||1||28||0.964||0||Y||2||1||0||0||L|
|MAR 13 '13 PHI @ NJD||L||5||32||0.844||0||Y||3||-2||-3||-3||No change|
|MAR 10 '13 BUF @ PHI||W||2||20||0.9||0||N||2||not eligible||1||1||No change|
|MAR 9 '13 PHI @ BOS||L||3||28||0.893||0||Y||2||-1||-3||-3||No change|
|MAR 7 '13 PIT @ PHI||L||4||16||0.75||0||Y||1||-3||-1||-1||W|
|MAR 5 '13 PHI @ NYR||L||4||20||0.8||0||Y||2||-2||-2||-2||OT|
|MAR 2 '13 OTT @ PHI||W||1||34||0.971||0||Y||3||2||1||1||L|
|FEB 27 '13 WSH @ PHI||W||1||24||0.958||0||Y||2||1||3||3||No change|
|FEB 25 '13 TOR @ PHI||L||3||21||0.857||1||Y||2||-1||-2||-1||OT|
|FEB 23 '13 WPG @ PHI||W||3||37||0.919||0||Y||3||0||2||2||No change|
|FEB 21 '13 FLA @ PHI||L||4||15||0.733||0||Y||1||-3||-3||-3||OT|
|FEB 20 '13 PHI @ PIT||W||5||32||0.844||0||N||3||not eligible||1||1||No change|
|FEB 18 '13 PHI @ NYI||W||0||19||1||0||Y||2||2||7||7||No change|
|FEB 15 '13 PHI @ NJD||L||4||18||0.778||1||Y||2||-2||-2||-1||W|
|FEB 12 '13 PHI @ WPG||W||2||26||0.923||0||Y||2||0||1||1||No change|
|FEB 11 '13 PHI @ TOR||L||4||14||0.714||0||Y||1||-3||-3||-3||OT|
|FEB 9 '13 CAR @ PHI||W||3||33||0.909||0||N||3||not eligible||1||1||No change|
|FEB 7 '13 FLA @ PHI||O||2||24||0.917||0||Y||2||0||0||0||No change|
|FEB 5 '13 TBL @ PHI||W||1||22||0.955||0||Y||2||1||1||1||OT|
|FEB 2 '13 CAR @ PHI||W||3||42||0.929||0||Y||4||1||2||2||No change|
|FEB 1 '13 PHI @ WSH||L||3||26||0.885||0||Y||2||-1||-1||-1||OT|
|JAN 29 '13 PHI @ NYR||L||2||28||0.929||0||N||2||not eligible||-1||-1||No change|
|JAN 26 '13 PHI @ FLA||W||1||31||0.968||0||Y||3||2||6||6||No change|
|JAN 24 '13 NYR @ PHI||W||1||19||0.947||0||Y||2||1||1||1||OT|
|JAN 22 '13 PHI @ NJD||L||3||26||0.885||0||Y||2||-1||-3||-3||No change|
|JAN 20 '13 PHI @ BUF||L||4||40||0.9||1||Y||3||-1||-3||-2||No change|
|JAN 19 '13 PIT @ PHI||L||2||26||0.923||1||N||2||not eligible||-2||-1||No change|
So that's a dump of all the information. You can take a look to check my work as I'm doing this in a rush.
Essentially what I got to was that by replacing Bryz with league average, 4 wins became ties, 2 wins became losses, 7 losses became ties and 2 losses became wins. Hopefully I tallied that right. It's not surprising that there are more ties, as if you were to equalize all team's save percentages to an average you'd get a lot less variation in scores. This is essentially telling us how often a particularly good or particularly poor performance influenced results.
So the only difference I found between Bryz and a league average goaltender was that 3 of our losses would have become tie games. If we went 2-1 in those games, we would have 5 more total points for the season. Obviously the salary we pay Bryz is excessive for the goaltending we're getting, but we can conclude that a) Bryz didn't cost us the playoffs and b) replacing Bryz with an average goaltender wouldn't get us into the playoffs.