FanPost

How many wins did Bryz cost the Flyers?

Basic method:

  • Retrieved the even strength, shorthanded and powerplay save % statistics for the top 60 goaltenders listed on NHL.com by save%. Bryz was listed as 60th on that list.
  • Calculated average even strength, shorthanded and powerplay save %s based on the aggregate shots against and saves made. Those values were 0.924, 0.866 and 0.920 respectively. Aggregate average is 0.915. For simplicity and to stop me from needing to go through each game individually, I just used the aggregate average.
  • Went through the Flyers games and retrieved all games in which the Flyers lost and Bryz was below average or the Flyers won and Bryz was above average. Obviously if they lost and Bryz was above average than Bryz being average would have resulted in a loss anyway, and the same deal if they won and Bryz was below average. Those games are listed as 'not eligible'.
  • Calculated how many goals would have been scored Bryz been an average goaltender, and compared this to the margin of those games. The margin excluded empty net goals.
  • This obviously can't include intangibles like momentum killing goals etc.
  • Also obviously exclude games in which Bryz didn't start.

The rationale behind this exercise was that we often use save% to judge Bryz, but in a short season especially a few bad starts can skew that pretty badly. To take an extreme example, losing a game 100-0 where the opponent had 100 shots would kill your save% but only cost you two points on the standings. I came in with no real preconceptions but thought it would be interesting.

DEC GA SA SV% EN GA Eligible GA(average) Difference in GA Margin Excluding EN goals New result
APR 25 '13 NYI @ PHI W 1 22 0.955 0 Y 2 1 1 1 OT
APR 18 '13 NJD @ PHI L 2 30 0.933 1 N 3 not eligible -3 -2 No change
APR 15 '13 PHI @ MTL W 3 28 0.893 0 N 2 not eligible 4 4 No change
APR 11 '13 OTT @ PHI L 2 33 0.939 1 N 3 not eligible -2 -1 No change
APR 6 '13 PHI @ WPG L 4 16 0.75 0 Y 1 -3 -3 -3 OT
APR 4 '13 PHI @ TOR W 3 28 0.893 0 N 2 not eligible 2 2 No change
APR 3 '13 MTL @ PHI W 3 17 0.824 0 N 1 not eligible 2 2 No change
MAR 31 '13 WSH @ PHI W 4 29 0.862 0 N 2 not eligible 1 1 No change
MAR 30 '13 BOS @ PHI W 1 34 0.971 0 Y 3 2 2 2 OT
MAR 28 '13 NYI @ PHI O 3 36 0.917 0 Y 3 0 0 0 No change
MAR 26 '13 NYR @ PHI L 5 31 0.839 0 Y 3 -2 -3 -3 No change
MAR 24 '13 PHI @ PIT O 2 35 0.943 0 N 3 not eligible -1 -1 No change
MAR 18 '13 PHI @ TBL L 3 26 0.885 1 Y 2 -1 -2 -1 OT
MAR 15 '13 NJD @ PHI W 1 28 0.964 0 Y 2 1 0 0 L
MAR 13 '13 PHI @ NJD L 5 32 0.844 0 Y 3 -2 -3 -3 No change
MAR 10 '13 BUF @ PHI W 2 20 0.9 0 N 2 not eligible 1 1 No change
MAR 9 '13 PHI @ BOS L 3 28 0.893 0 Y 2 -1 -3 -3 No change
MAR 7 '13 PIT @ PHI L 4 16 0.75 0 Y 1 -3 -1 -1 W
MAR 5 '13 PHI @ NYR L 4 20 0.8 0 Y 2 -2 -2 -2 OT
MAR 2 '13 OTT @ PHI W 1 34 0.971 0 Y 3 2 1 1 L
FEB 27 '13 WSH @ PHI W 1 24 0.958 0 Y 2 1 3 3 No change
FEB 25 '13 TOR @ PHI L 3 21 0.857 1 Y 2 -1 -2 -1 OT
FEB 23 '13 WPG @ PHI W 3 37 0.919 0 Y 3 0 2 2 No change
FEB 21 '13 FLA @ PHI L 4 15 0.733 0 Y 1 -3 -3 -3 OT
FEB 20 '13 PHI @ PIT W 5 32 0.844 0 N 3 not eligible 1 1 No change
FEB 18 '13 PHI @ NYI W 0 19 1 0 Y 2 2 7 7 No change
FEB 15 '13 PHI @ NJD L 4 18 0.778 1 Y 2 -2 -2 -1 W
FEB 12 '13 PHI @ WPG W 2 26 0.923 0 Y 2 0 1 1 No change
FEB 11 '13 PHI @ TOR L 4 14 0.714 0 Y 1 -3 -3 -3 OT
FEB 9 '13 CAR @ PHI W 3 33 0.909 0 N 3 not eligible 1 1 No change
FEB 7 '13 FLA @ PHI O 2 24 0.917 0 Y 2 0 0 0 No change
FEB 5 '13 TBL @ PHI W 1 22 0.955 0 Y 2 1 1 1 OT
FEB 2 '13 CAR @ PHI W 3 42 0.929 0 Y 4 1 2 2 No change
FEB 1 '13 PHI @ WSH L 3 26 0.885 0 Y 2 -1 -1 -1 OT
JAN 29 '13 PHI @ NYR L 2 28 0.929 0 N 2 not eligible -1 -1 No change
JAN 26 '13 PHI @ FLA W 1 31 0.968 0 Y 3 2 6 6 No change
JAN 24 '13 NYR @ PHI W 1 19 0.947 0 Y 2 1 1 1 OT
JAN 22 '13 PHI @ NJD L 3 26 0.885 0 Y 2 -1 -3 -3 No change
JAN 20 '13 PHI @ BUF L 4 40 0.9 1 Y 3 -1 -3 -2 No change
JAN 19 '13 PIT @ PHI L 2 26 0.923 1 N 2 not eligible -2 -1 No change

So that's a dump of all the information. You can take a look to check my work as I'm doing this in a rush.


Essentially what I got to was that by replacing Bryz with league average, 4 wins became ties, 2 wins became losses, 7 losses became ties and 2 losses became wins. Hopefully I tallied that right. It's not surprising that there are more ties, as if you were to equalize all team's save percentages to an average you'd get a lot less variation in scores. This is essentially telling us how often a particularly good or particularly poor performance influenced results.

So the only difference I found between Bryz and a league average goaltender was that 3 of our losses would have become tie games. If we went 2-1 in those games, we would have 5 more total points for the season. Obviously the salary we pay Bryz is excessive for the goaltending we're getting, but we can conclude that a) Bryz didn't cost us the playoffs and b) replacing Bryz with an average goaltender wouldn't get us into the playoffs.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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