FanPost

Year to Date Scoring Chance Data.

Kurt R. requested the YTD scoring chance data so I figured I'd post it here for everyone to see. We're 59 games into the season. Time for the stretch run!!


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via cdn1.sbnation.com


Recall that a scoring chance is any play directed at the net from scoring chance area, roughly the home plate shape shown above. Shots from outside of this area are not counted as scoring chances. There are some exceptions for screen plays or fancy puck movement, but this is the general rule of thumb. Missed shots are counted, but blocked shots are not. Quick refresher on what all these stats mean.

On Ice Stats:

Chance For: If a player is on the ice for a scoring chance directed at the opposition's net, he gets a +1.

Chance Against: If a player is on the ice for a scoring chance directed at his team's net, he gets a -1.

SC +/-: Just like traditional plus/minus or shot differential, the sum of all chances for and against while a player is on the ice.

Individual Stats:

Set Up: A set up is awarded to a player for any play that sets up a scoring chance. Think of these as potential primary assists. Includes passes, rebounds, etc

Chance: A chance is awarded to a player for physically directing the puck at the net from the scoring chance area. Think of these as potential goals. Includes shots, deflections, etc

Involved: The sum of all of the set-ups and chances a player is directly involved in creating.

Stat/60: Different players get different amounts of ice-time. Creating stats per 60 minutes of ice time allows us to directly compare every player on the roster, regardless of their time on ice per game. But we still need to keep overall sample size in mind when evaluating players.

Even Strength SC +/-

# Name ES TOI(minutes) ES Set Up ES Chance ES Involved SU/60 CH/60 INV/60 SC +/- Chances Against CA/60
93 Voracek 811 70 59 129 5.18 4.36 9.54 57 187 13.83
12 Raffl 521 27 56 83 3.11 6.45 9.56 33 119 13.70
28 Giroux 930 72 87 159 4.65 5.61 10.26 27 241 15.55
44 Timonen 788 20 10 30 1.52 0.76 2.28 21 173 13.17
17 Simmonds 780 34 57 91 2.62 4.38 7.00 17 190 14.62
19 Hartnell 732 43 58 101 3.52 4.75 8.28 17 181 14.84
26 Gustafsson 420 10 7 17 1.43 1.00 2.43 16 92 13.14
15 McGinn 89 1 7 8 0.67 4.72 5.39 2 13 8.76
75 Gill 47 1 0 1 1.28 0.00 1.28 0 8 10.21
32 Streit 1011 24 15 39 1.42 0.89 2.31 -2 258 15.31
27 Talbot 125 3 3 6 1.44 1.44 2.88 -3 28 13.44
10 B.Schenn 792 47 63 110 3.56 4.77 8.33 -4 194 14.70
40 Lecavalier 605 30 43 73 2.98 4.26 7.24 -7 166 16.46
76 Vandevelde 105 5 2 7 2.86 1.14 4.00 -8 21 12.00
5 Coburn 1080 19 13 32 1.06 0.72 1.78 -14 258 14.33
37 Rosehill 133 0 4 4 0.00 1.80 1.80 -17 28 12.63
22 L.Schenn 807 14 8 22 1.04 0.59 1.64 -19 202 15.02
41 Meszaros 538 14 14 28 1.56 1.56 3.12 -19 149 16.62
24 Read 736 33 55 88 2.69 4.48 7.17 -22 175 14.27
14 Couturier 842 30 59 89 2.14 4.20 6.34 -28 207 14.75
9 Downie 479 21 12 33 2.63 1.50 4.13 -32 124 15.53
36 Rinaldo 342 9 14 14 1.58 2.46 2.46 -36 84 14.74
18 Hall 377 8 10 18 1.27 1.59 2.86 -42 81 12.89
8 Grossmann 954 22 2 24 1.38 0.13 1.51 -48 251 15.79

Even Strength INV/60

# Name ES TOI(minutes) ES Set Up ES Chance ES Involved SU/60 CH/60 INV/60 SC +/- Chances Against CA/60
28 Giroux 930 72 87 159 4.65 5.61 10.26 27 241 15.55
12 Raffl 521 27 56 83 3.11 6.45 9.56 33 119 13.70
93 Voracek 811 70 59 129 5.18 4.36 9.54 57 187 13.83
10 B.Schenn 792 47 63 110 3.56 4.77 8.33 -4 194 14.70
19 Hartnell 732 43 58 101 3.52 4.75 8.28 17 181 14.84
40 Lecavalier 605 30 43 73 2.98 4.26 7.24 -7 166 16.46
24 Read 736 33 55 88 2.69 4.48 7.17 -22 175 14.27
17 Simmonds 780 34 57 91 2.62 4.38 7.00 17 190 14.62
14 Couturier 842 30 59 89 2.14 4.20 6.34 -28 207 14.75
15 McGinn 89 1 7 8 0.67 4.72 5.39 2 13 8.76
9 Downie 479 21 12 33 2.63 1.50 4.13 -32 124 15.53
76 Vandevelde 105 5 2 7 2.86 1.14 4.00 -8 21 12.00
41 Meszaros 538 14 14 28 1.56 1.56 3.12 -19 149 16.62
27 Talbot 125 3 3 6 1.44 1.44 2.88 -3 28 13.44
18 Hall 377 8 10 18 1.27 1.59 2.86 -42 81 12.89
36 Rinaldo 342 9 14 14 1.58 2.46 2.46 -36 84 14.74
26 Gustafsson 420 10 7 17 1.43 1.00 2.43 16 92 13.14
32 Streit 1011 24 15 39 1.42 0.89 2.31 -2 258 15.31
44 Timonen 788 20 10 30 1.52 0.76 2.28 21 173 13.17
37 Rosehill 133 0 4 4 0.00 1.80 1.80 -17 28 12.63
5 Coburn 1080 19 13 32 1.06 0.72 1.78 -14 258 14.33
22 L.Schenn 807 14 8 22 1.04 0.59 1.64 -19 202 15.02
8 Grossmann 954 22 2 24 1.38 0.13 1.51 -48 251 15.79
75 Gill 47 1 0 1 1.28 0.00 1.28 0 8 10.21

Even Strength CA/60

# Name ES TOI(minutes) ES Set Up ES Chance ES Involved SU/60 CH/60 INV/60 SC +/- Chances Against CA/60
15 McGinn 89 1 7 8 0.67 4.72 5.39 2 13 8.76
75 Gill 47 1 0 1 1.28 0.00 1.28 0 8 10.21
76 Vandevelde 105 5 2 7 2.86 1.14 4.00 -8 21 12.00
37 Rosehill 133 0 4 4 0.00 1.80 1.80 -17 28 12.63
18 Hall 377 8 10 18 1.27 1.59 2.86 -42 81 12.89
26 Gustafsson 420 10 7 17 1.43 1.00 2.43 16 92 13.14
44 Timonen 788 20 10 30 1.52 0.76 2.28 21 173 13.17
27 Talbot 125 3 3 6 1.44 1.44 2.88 -3 28 13.44
12 Raffl 521 27 56 83 3.11 6.45 9.56 33 119 13.70
93 Voracek 811 70 59 129 5.18 4.36 9.54 57 187 13.83
24 Read 736 33 55 88 2.69 4.48 7.17 -22 175 14.27
5 Coburn 1080 19 13 32 1.06 0.72 1.78 -14 258 14.33
17 Simmonds 780 34 57 91 2.62 4.38 7.00 17 190 14.62
10 B.Schenn 792 47 63 110 3.56 4.77 8.33 -4 194 14.70
36 Rinaldo 342 9 14 14 1.58 2.46 2.46 -36 84 14.74
14 Couturier 842 30 59 89 2.14 4.20 6.34 -28 207 14.75
19 Hartnell 732 43 58 101 3.52 4.75 8.28 17 181 14.84
22 L.Schenn 807 14 8 22 1.04 0.59 1.64 -19 202 15.02
32 Streit 1011 24 15 39 1.42 0.89 2.31 -2 258 15.31
9 Downie 479 21 12 33 2.63 1.50 4.13 -32 124 15.53
28 Giroux 930 72 87 159 4.65 5.61 10.26 27 241 15.55
8 Grossmann 954 22 2 24 1.38 0.13 1.51 -48 251 15.79
40 Lecavalier 605 30 43 73 2.98 4.26 7.24 -7 166 16.46
41 Meszaros 538 14 14 28 1.56 1.56 3.12 -19 149 16.62


Trending Up

  • Claude Giroux - Giroux has substantially improved in scoring chance +/- since we last looked at the data. He's gone from a +6 to a +27 and he's surpassed Voracek as the most offensively creative player.
  • Jake Voracek - Jake still leads the team in chance +/- by a wide margin with an astounding +57. He's lost some ground in INV/60 to Giroux and Raffl, but he's still one of the best players on the team at creating scoring chances.
  • Scott Hartnell - Scotty has made modest improvements in both +/- and INV/60.
  • Michael Raffl - Raffl has only got better as the season has gone along. He's gone from a +20 to a +33 and he's become the 2nd most offensively involved player on the team.
  • Wayne Simmonds - The Wayne Train has had a stellar second half, improving in both INV/60 and +/-
  • Kimmo Timonen - The Finnish god remains a strong contributor to the Flyers success at both ends of the ice.
  • Erik Gustafsson - Big improvements in all categories for the young puck mover.
  • Andrej Meszaros - Mez is still the most offensively effective defender on the blue line. His INV/60 numbers have climbed to an astronomical 3.12. However he's remained a -19 in chance +/- which tells you he's still a liability in his own end.

Trending Down

  • Vincent Lecavalier - Lecavalier's offensive effectiveness has fallen along with his chance +/- rating. And he's continued to struggle mightily in the puck possession department.
  • Sean Couturier - Coots has lost ground in both INV/60 and overall chance +/-, falling from a -22 to a -28.
  • Matt Read - Same story as his linemates, Read's numbers have fallen in all categories.
  • Steve Downie - Downie has gone from an ugly -27 to an even uglier -32. And he's become less effective in the offensive zone.
  • Adam Hall and Zac Rinaldo - Huge negatives in chance +/- and getting worse with each game played.
  • Nick Grossmann - Grossmann remains the worst chance +/- performer on the entire roster and he's only gotten worse. He posted a cumulative -48, down from his already awful mid-season mark of -34.
  • Mark Streit - Though his numbers are still substantially better than his partner Grossmann's, his +/- is trending down.

Players That Deserve More Ice Time Down the Stretch:

  • Michael Raffl - The player we've come to affectionately call Waffles has only improved as the season has gone along. Despite being bounced around the lineup like a rag doll by Craig Berube, Michael is the second best forward in INV/60 and SC +/- on the entire team. And amazingly, those numbers would be even better if Raffl was currently stuck on the 4th line with Hall and Rinaldo. He's quietly posting some very impressive possession numbers and to top it off he's one of these best roster players at preventing scoring chances against. Watching Raffl, you immediately notice his skating ability and intelligent two-way play. He doesn't look out of place on the top offensive line or in checking role. He's a silky smooth passer, which helps the Flyers move in transition and get the puck up ice. Though some might view his production in a limited sample as disappointing, the numbers tell us that there's untapped offensive potential here.
  • Erik Gustafsson - Gus is another player that has struggled at times to stick in the line-up. Injuries have played a factor. The Flyers would be wise to expand Erik's role and give him a permanent slot on the defense. He's right behind Kimmo in overall +/-, 2nd in INV/60 behind Mez, and he's eclipsed all other defenders on the roster in CA/60. Which tells you he's both offensively creative and solid at preventing chances against. Gus offers a skill set that the Flyers sorely lack on the back end. Namely, SPEED. He's a fast skater that stands out on a relatively immobile defense. Most importantly Gus can run a competent d-zone break-out with his passing ability. In the offensive zone, he can break in with speed and create odd-man situations that are difficult for the opposition to defend.

Players That Deserve Less Ice Time Down the Stretch:

  • Nick Grossmann - Grossmann is having an undeniably awful season. As a defensive d-man, his primary job is to prevent high quality chances. Yet he's third worst in CA/60 and a team worst -48 on the season. Nick's lack of speed and deficiencies handling the puck are forcing his team to defend far more often than they should. Ideally Grossmann should be busted down to third pair minutes and sheltered from the other team's best units.
  • Vinny Lecavalier - Vinny just isn't suited for a 200 foot game anymore. He's an outright defensive liability at 5v5, giving up up the second most CA/60. Every line he plays on becomes a defensive black hole. I think that ideally he should be busted down to a 4th line center role at even strength. That being said, Lecavalier still offers tremendous value on the 2nd PP unit. He still possesses the high end offensive skills that made him such a dynamic player in his prime, and on the PP he has the chance to shine. Reducing his 5v5 time and maintaining his PP role will effectively maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

Whats up with the third line?

Some of you may have noticed Sean Couturier and his most common linemates, Read and Downie, aren't posting great numbers. At one point in time this line was arguably the Flyers best 5v5 unit. But there's no denying that this group has struggled of late. This line's difficult checking usage and defensive zone starts aren't enough to explain numbers this poor. So lets look at how their teammates might be affecting then. WOWY stats might give us a clue as to why a line that showed so much promise has fallen off a cliff.

Name CF% with Grossmann CF% without Grossmann CF% with Lecavalier CF% Without Lecavalier
Couturier 41.5 54.6 43.5 49.9
Read 43.6 52.9 47.6 49.3
Downie 46 50.7

Couturier has spent almost 340 minutes, nearly half his even strength ice time, playing with Grossmann. And he's spent 162 minutes with Lecavalier on his wing. So this line's shut-down role is hurting them, but its not the opposition that is doing the damage. On top of their difficult usage, they've been saddled with two massive defensive liabilities for a significant portion of their 5v5 ice time. Coot's struggles serve as just another reminder that Grossmann and Vinny are hurting this team's even strength efforts. Reducing their ice time may be the key to getting positive performances out of the 2nd and 3rd lines.

Thanks for reading. Tune in at the end of the season for a final review of the entire 82 games worth of data!

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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