FanPost

NHLe and trying to find the steal

Based on this article: NHLe

I decided to see if there was any steals at the forward position to be had around where we draft. (should be noted, this only includes forwards who played in NA, as most players who played overseas either played in a league with no nhle or they played in multiple leagues, also in general, the overseas guys had terrible NHLe82 when they did play in the big leagues overseas)

Below is a table including most of the top 40 forwards, nhle is the equivalent factor and NHLe82 is how many points the player is projected to score in their rookie season over 82 games.

Player Team DOB Pos. Ht/Wt GP G A Pts NHLe82 nhle
Sam Reinhart Kootenay (WHL) Nov. 6/95 C 6'0/185 60 36 69 105 43,05 0,3
Leon Draisaitl Prince Albert (WHL) Oct. 27/95 C 6'2/208 64 38 67 105 40,36 0,3
Sam Bennett Kingston (OHL) Jun. 20/96 C 6'0/178 57 36 55 91 39,27 0,3
Nikolaj Ehlers Halifax (QMJHL) Feb. 14/96 LW 6'0/162 63 49 55 104 37,90 0,28
Robert Fabbri Guelph (OHL) Jan. 22/96 C 5'10/166 58 45 42 87 36,90 0,3
Michael Dal Colle Oshawa (OHL) Jun. 20/96 LW 6'2/179 67 39 56 95 34,88 0,3
Nikolay Goldobin Sarnia (OHL) Oct. 7/95 LW 6'0/178 67 38 56 94 34,51 0,3
Sonny Milano USNTDP (USHL) May 12/96 LW 6'0/183 58 29 57 86 32,83 0,27
Ivan Barbashev Moncton (QMJHL) Dec. 14/95 C/LW 6'1/185 48 25 43 68 32,53 0,28
Josh Ho Sang Windsor (OHL) Jan. 22/96 C/RW 5'11/166 64 31 53 84 32,29 0,3
Brayden Point Moose Jaw (WHL) Mar. 13/96 C 5'10/160 72 36 55 91 31,09 0,3
Brendan Perlini Niagara (OHL) Apr. 30/96 LW 6'3/205 58 34 37 71 30,11 0,3
Nick Ritchie Peterborough (OHL) Dec. 5/95 LW 6'2/231 61 39 35 74 29,84 0,3
Nikita Scherbak Saskatoon (WHL) Dec. 30/95 LW 6'0/172 65 28 50 78 29,52 0,3
Chase De Leo Portland (WHL) Oct. 25/95 C 5'9/177 72 39 42 81 27,68 0,3
Jayce Hawryluk Brandon (WHL) Jan. 1/96 C 5'10/190 59 24 40 64 26,68 0,3
Spencer Watson Kingston (OHL) Apr. 25/96 RW 5'10/166 65 33 35 68 25,74 0,3
Nick Schmaltz Green Bay (USHL) Feb. 23/96 C 6'0/170 55 18 45 63 25,36 0,27
Jake Virtanen Calgary (WHL) Aug. 17/96 RW 6'1/213 71 45 26 71 24,60 0,3
Alex Tuch USNTDP (USHL) May 10/96 RW 6'4/213 61 29 35 64 24,09 0,28
Jared McCann S. Ste. Marie (OHL) May 31/96 C 6'0/179 64 27 35 62 23,83 0,3
Connor Bleackley Red Deer (WHL) Feb. 7/96 RW 6'1/192 71 29 39 68 23,56 0,3
John Quenneville Brandon (WHL) Apr. 16/96 C 6'1/182 61 25 33 58 23,39 0,3
Eric Cornel Peterborough (OHL) Apr. 11/96 C 6'2/186 68 25 37 62 22,43 0,3
Michael Bunting S. Ste-Marie (OHL) Sep. 17/95 LW 5'11/174 48 15 27 42 21,53 0,3
Dylan Larkin USNTDP (USHL) Jul. 30/96 C 6'1/190 60 31 25 56 20,66 0,27
Brendan Lemieux Barrie (OHL) Mar. 15/96 LW 6'0/206 65 27 26 53 20,06 0,3
Brett Pollock Edmonton (WHL) Mar. 17/96 LW 6'2/182 71 25 30 55 19,06 0,3
Justin Kirkland Kelowna (WHL) Aug. 2/96 LW 6'2/175 68 17 31 48 17,36 0,3
Vaclav Karabacek Gatineau (QMJHL) May 2/96 RW 6'0/182 65 21 26 47 16,01 0,27
Ryan MacInnis Kitchener (OHL) Feb. 14/96 C 6'4/175 66 16 21 37 13,79 0,3

Based on this list and where they are in general ranked I would say the Robert Fabbri and Nikolay Goldobin have the biggest chance to be a draft steal outside of the top 10. Fabbri will most likely fall because of his size, but he could end up becoming a steal for who ever drafts him.

What do this mean for the Flyers? It means we have a really good chance to draft a really good forward at 17th. Be it Goldobin or even one of the 3 next on the list in Milano, Barbashev and Ho-Sang.

Looking at the 2nd round pick for the Flyers, a two guys who has best potential to be real steals are Brayden Point and Brendan Perlini, both are ranked super low by most of the big scouting services, but according to NHLe, should be late 1st at worst.

If we go over to defensemen, its actually more simple than using NHLe, one just has too look at their PPG to get a good idea how it translates, see this article: Dmen and PPG

What that article says, drafting a defeseman who didnt score above 0.6 ppg in their draft year is a huge risk (see Morin last year).

Player Team DOB Pos. Ht/Wt GP G A Pts PPG
Anthony DeAngelo Sarnia (OHL) Oct. 24/95 D 5'11/175 51 15 56 71 1,39
Michael Prapavessis Toronto (OJHL) Jan. 7/96 D 6'1/173 47 5 50 55 1,17
Aaron Ekblad Barrie (OHL) Feb. 7/96 D 6'4/216 58 23 30 53 0,91
Julius Honka Swift Current (WHL) Dec. 3/95 D 5'11/178 62 16 40 56 0,90
Jake Walman Toronto Jr. (OJHL) Feb. 20/96 D 6'1/170 43 7 26 33 0,77
Roland McKeown Kingston (OHL) Jan. 20/96 D 6'1/197 62 11 32 43 0,69
Haydn Fleury Red Deer (WHL) Jul. 8/96 D 6'3/198 70 8 38 46 0,66
Dominik Masin Slavia (Czech) Feb. 1/96 D 6'2/189 39 2 19 21 0,54
Brycen Martin Swift Current (WHL) May 9/96 D 6'2/182 72 6 31 37 0,51
Marcus Pettersson Skelleftea (SWE) May 8/96 D 6'4/167 38 4 14 18 0,47
Travis Sanheim Calgary (WHL) Mar. 29/96 D 6'3/181 67 5 24 29 0,43
Josh Jacobs Indiana (USHL) Feb. 15/96 D 6'2/193 56 5 18 23 0,41
Ryan Mantha Indiana (USHL) Jun. 18/96 D 6'5/225 53 3 12 15 0,28
Adam O. Mattsson Djurgarden (SWE) Jul. 30/96 D 6'4/209 33 1 8 9 0,27
Vladislav Gavrikov Yaroslavl (MHL) Nov. 21/95 D 6'2/191 45 3 9 12 0,27
Alex Peters Plymouth (OHL) Jul. 2/96 D 6'3/207 50 3 6 9 0,18
Ryan Collins USNTDP (USHL) May 6/96 D 6'5/202 59 1 6 7 0,12

One thing is clear, Anthony Deangelo's and Michael Prapavessis's production is just insane (so is Ekblad's goal production). One big conern is Prapavessis's huge goal to assist ratio. While most of the players on this list have huge amount of assists compared to goals except for Ekblad, its still more of a 3-1 ratio than 10-1 ratio.

At 17th and based on general rankings and that the Flyers value size, Roland McKeown just makes a lot of sense and based on the above has very good chance to be a very good Dman in the future. Honka and Deangelo also makes perfect sense at 17th, but the Flyers in general value size in the first round from their dmen (Hextall even said that this off season).

For our 2nd round pick Walman and Masin (just under 0.6 ppg, but from a different league than the CHL), would be my target simple based on their point production. While Prapavessis's PPG is very nice, that fact that he is in the OJHL and has that massive goal to assist ratio, I wouldnt take him over a Walman or Masin in the 2nd.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.

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