Based on this article: NHLe
I decided to see if there was any steals at the forward position to be had around where we draft. (should be noted, this only includes forwards who played in NA, as most players who played overseas either played in a league with no nhle or they played in multiple leagues, also in general, the overseas guys had terrible NHLe82 when they did play in the big leagues overseas)
Below is a table including most of the top 40 forwards, nhle is the equivalent factor and NHLe82 is how many points the player is projected to score in their rookie season over 82 games.
|Sam Reinhart||Kootenay (WHL)||Nov. 6/95||C||6'0/185||60||36||69||105||43,05||0,3|
|Leon Draisaitl||Prince Albert (WHL)||Oct. 27/95||C||6'2/208||64||38||67||105||40,36||0,3|
|Sam Bennett||Kingston (OHL)||Jun. 20/96||C||6'0/178||57||36||55||91||39,27||0,3|
|Nikolaj Ehlers||Halifax (QMJHL)||Feb. 14/96||LW||6'0/162||63||49||55||104||37,90||0,28|
|Robert Fabbri||Guelph (OHL)||Jan. 22/96||C||5'10/166||58||45||42||87||36,90||0,3|
|Michael Dal Colle||Oshawa (OHL)||Jun. 20/96||LW||6'2/179||67||39||56||95||34,88||0,3|
|Nikolay Goldobin||Sarnia (OHL)||Oct. 7/95||LW||6'0/178||67||38||56||94||34,51||0,3|
|Sonny Milano||USNTDP (USHL)||May 12/96||LW||6'0/183||58||29||57||86||32,83||0,27|
|Ivan Barbashev||Moncton (QMJHL)||Dec. 14/95||C/LW||6'1/185||48||25||43||68||32,53||0,28|
|Josh Ho Sang||Windsor (OHL)||Jan. 22/96||C/RW||5'11/166||64||31||53||84||32,29||0,3|
|Brayden Point||Moose Jaw (WHL)||Mar. 13/96||C||5'10/160||72||36||55||91||31,09||0,3|
|Brendan Perlini||Niagara (OHL)||Apr. 30/96||LW||6'3/205||58||34||37||71||30,11||0,3|
|Nick Ritchie||Peterborough (OHL)||Dec. 5/95||LW||6'2/231||61||39||35||74||29,84||0,3|
|Nikita Scherbak||Saskatoon (WHL)||Dec. 30/95||LW||6'0/172||65||28||50||78||29,52||0,3|
|Chase De Leo||Portland (WHL)||Oct. 25/95||C||5'9/177||72||39||42||81||27,68||0,3|
|Jayce Hawryluk||Brandon (WHL)||Jan. 1/96||C||5'10/190||59||24||40||64||26,68||0,3|
|Spencer Watson||Kingston (OHL)||Apr. 25/96||RW||5'10/166||65||33||35||68||25,74||0,3|
|Nick Schmaltz||Green Bay (USHL)||Feb. 23/96||C||6'0/170||55||18||45||63||25,36||0,27|
|Jake Virtanen||Calgary (WHL)||Aug. 17/96||RW||6'1/213||71||45||26||71||24,60||0,3|
|Alex Tuch||USNTDP (USHL)||May 10/96||RW||6'4/213||61||29||35||64||24,09||0,28|
|Jared McCann||S. Ste. Marie (OHL)||May 31/96||C||6'0/179||64||27||35||62||23,83||0,3|
|Connor Bleackley||Red Deer (WHL)||Feb. 7/96||RW||6'1/192||71||29||39||68||23,56||0,3|
|John Quenneville||Brandon (WHL)||Apr. 16/96||C||6'1/182||61||25||33||58||23,39||0,3|
|Eric Cornel||Peterborough (OHL)||Apr. 11/96||C||6'2/186||68||25||37||62||22,43||0,3|
|Michael Bunting||S. Ste-Marie (OHL)||Sep. 17/95||LW||5'11/174||48||15||27||42||21,53||0,3|
|Dylan Larkin||USNTDP (USHL)||Jul. 30/96||C||6'1/190||60||31||25||56||20,66||0,27|
|Brendan Lemieux||Barrie (OHL)||Mar. 15/96||LW||6'0/206||65||27||26||53||20,06||0,3|
|Brett Pollock||Edmonton (WHL)||Mar. 17/96||LW||6'2/182||71||25||30||55||19,06||0,3|
|Justin Kirkland||Kelowna (WHL)||Aug. 2/96||LW||6'2/175||68||17||31||48||17,36||0,3|
|Vaclav Karabacek||Gatineau (QMJHL)||May 2/96||RW||6'0/182||65||21||26||47||16,01||0,27|
|Ryan MacInnis||Kitchener (OHL)||Feb. 14/96||C||6'4/175||66||16||21||37||13,79||0,3|
Based on this list and where they are in general ranked I would say the Robert Fabbri and Nikolay Goldobin have the biggest chance to be a draft steal outside of the top 10. Fabbri will most likely fall because of his size, but he could end up becoming a steal for who ever drafts him.
What do this mean for the Flyers? It means we have a really good chance to draft a really good forward at 17th. Be it Goldobin or even one of the 3 next on the list in Milano, Barbashev and Ho-Sang.
Looking at the 2nd round pick for the Flyers, a two guys who has best potential to be real steals are Brayden Point and Brendan Perlini, both are ranked super low by most of the big scouting services, but according to NHLe, should be late 1st at worst.
If we go over to defensemen, its actually more simple than using NHLe, one just has too look at their PPG to get a good idea how it translates, see this article: Dmen and PPG
|Anthony DeAngelo||Sarnia (OHL)||Oct. 24/95||D||5'11/175||51||15||56||71||1,39|
|Michael Prapavessis||Toronto (OJHL)||Jan. 7/96||D||6'1/173||47||5||50||55||1,17|
|Aaron Ekblad||Barrie (OHL)||Feb. 7/96||D||6'4/216||58||23||30||53||0,91|
|Julius Honka||Swift Current (WHL)||Dec. 3/95||D||5'11/178||62||16||40||56||0,90|
|Jake Walman||Toronto Jr. (OJHL)||Feb. 20/96||D||6'1/170||43||7||26||33||0,77|
|Roland McKeown||Kingston (OHL)||Jan. 20/96||D||6'1/197||62||11||32||43||0,69|
|Haydn Fleury||Red Deer (WHL)||Jul. 8/96||D||6'3/198||70||8||38||46||0,66|
|Dominik Masin||Slavia (Czech)||Feb. 1/96||D||6'2/189||39||2||19||21||0,54|
|Brycen Martin||Swift Current (WHL)||May 9/96||D||6'2/182||72||6||31||37||0,51|
|Marcus Pettersson||Skelleftea (SWE)||May 8/96||D||6'4/167||38||4||14||18||0,47|
|Travis Sanheim||Calgary (WHL)||Mar. 29/96||D||6'3/181||67||5||24||29||0,43|
|Josh Jacobs||Indiana (USHL)||Feb. 15/96||D||6'2/193||56||5||18||23||0,41|
|Ryan Mantha||Indiana (USHL)||Jun. 18/96||D||6'5/225||53||3||12||15||0,28|
|Adam O. Mattsson||Djurgarden (SWE)||Jul. 30/96||D||6'4/209||33||1||8||9||0,27|
|Vladislav Gavrikov||Yaroslavl (MHL)||Nov. 21/95||D||6'2/191||45||3||9||12||0,27|
|Alex Peters||Plymouth (OHL)||Jul. 2/96||D||6'3/207||50||3||6||9||0,18|
|Ryan Collins||USNTDP (USHL)||May 6/96||D||6'5/202||59||1||6||7||0,12|
One thing is clear, Anthony Deangelo's and Michael Prapavessis's production is just insane (so is Ekblad's goal production). One big conern is Prapavessis's huge goal to assist ratio. While most of the players on this list have huge amount of assists compared to goals except for Ekblad, its still more of a 3-1 ratio than 10-1 ratio.
At 17th and based on general rankings and that the Flyers value size, Roland McKeown just makes a lot of sense and based on the above has very good chance to be a very good Dman in the future. Honka and Deangelo also makes perfect sense at 17th, but the Flyers in general value size in the first round from their dmen (Hextall even said that this off season).
For our 2nd round pick Walman and Masin (just under 0.6 ppg, but from a different league than the CHL), would be my target simple based on their point production. While Prapavessis's PPG is very nice, that fact that he is in the OJHL and has that massive goal to assist ratio, I wouldnt take him over a Walman or Masin in the 2nd.