Scoring Chances

Philadelphia Flyers Scoring Chance Summary: A Half Season Review

by ToddtheFox on Feb 7, 2012 12:00 PM EST in Scoring Chances

Many regular readers of BSH know that many here put a lot of stock into the so-called "advanced statistics" -- both as a way to understand what we're watching on the ice night in and night out, and as a way to predict future events.

For example, Fenwick tied -- a measure of unblocked shots directed at the net while the team is tied -- is known to be an excellent way of estimating future winning percentage. This has been shown several times over the last few years, like the Devils getting more points than the Dallas Stars over the last half of the season, and the Minnesota Wild being awful this year despite spending quite some time at the top of the Western Conference.

Peter Laviolette may be unaware of the statistical powers of Fenwick numbers, but we know that he puts a lot of stock into scoring chances -- and we also know that there is a correlation between Corsi/Fenwick and scoring chances. You can decide whether or not you put any stock in Fenwick numbers, but scoring chances are simple to understand and their importance is pretty obvious.

That's why we've been tracking them here at BSH over the course of the season, and it's time to get caught up on some trends over the first half of this year.

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Philadelphia Flyers Scoring Chance Summary: Game 12-22

by ToddtheFox on Dec 19, 2011 12:00 PM EST in Scoring Chances

It's been a while since I posted the game-by-game scoring chance results (sorry, I'll try get them out soon), I've still been recording the chances for all the games and I thought a chance summary was more interesting anyway.

The Flyers chance summary for games 1-11 can be found here.

Total team chances: Games 1-22

	Total CF	Total CA	Total Chance %	EV CF	EV CA	EV %	PP CF	PP CA	SH CF	SH CA
1	125	95	57%	82	68	55%	37	3	6	24
2	128	105	55%	81	84	49%	38	3	9	18
3	123	86	59%	94	59	61%	20	2	9	25
4	2	7	22%	2	3	40%	0	0	0	4
Totals	378	293	56%	259	214	55%	95	8	24	71

This table is shown from the Flyers perspective, so SH CF/CA indicates the totals while the opponent is on the powerplay.

Through the first 11 games the Flyers were getting 58% total chances and 57% of chances at even-strength, which is really good. After 22 games they have managed to sustain this advantage in chances generating 56% of the total chances and 55% at even strength.

The Flyers play an awful lot of the game with special teams, more than any other team in the league. I don't know the total number of PP opportunities the Flyers had at 22 games, but their current rate is 4.6 PP for per game (145 PP for in 31 games). Given that, the Flyers get nearly one chance on every powerplay with 4.3 PP chances per game (95 chances in 22 games). I'm not sure how that compares to other teams, but it compares well with the Flyers opponents. The Flyers give 4.8 PP against per game and allows 3.2 PP chances per game. Not only does the Flyers PK allow a much lower number of chances than the teams PP generates, they also get a good number of short-handed chances with at least one per game.

Jump for the team and individual summaries for games 12-22

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Scoring chances, Game 18: Flyers vs. Coyotes

by ToddtheFox on Nov 20, 2011 9:08 PM EST in Scoring Chances

In the interest of catching up, the chance data for the Sabres, Devils, Blue Jackets, Lightning, Panthers and Hurricanes games can be found in the BSH archives or the Scoring Chances section without analysis.

The Flyers more than doubled the Coyotes in scoring chances for this game, finishing 18-8 in total and ahead 10-7 at even-strength. The 4 chances the Coyotes managed through the first two periods is the lowest of any opponent all season (Columbus was the previous low with 5 through two periods). The Flyers special teams were excellent; despite not scoring the powerplay generated 6 chances from their three oppurtunities and the penalty kill kept the Coyotes powerplay chanceless and got 2 chances of their own.

The Read-Talbot-Voracek line was the best for the Flyers at even-strength, with positive chances against the entire Coyotes lineup. The JVR-Briere-Simmonds were the opposite, finishing with negative chances against most of the Coyotes. This line hasn't been very good since it was first put together in Game 14 versus the Blue Jackets, it very rarely outchances the opposition. Peter Laviolette is known to pay attention to scoring chances so I wouldn't be surprised to see this line changed, especially now with Jagr out (I haven't watched the Jets game yet but I understand the lines were all over the place).

Best ES forward: Read, Voracek, +5
Worst ES forward: Simmonds, -4

Best ES defender: Coburn, +4
Worst ES defender: Meszaros, -1