Last week, we unveiled a new feature where we keep tabs on the predictions Sam Carchidi makes on Twitter, with the goal of either a) discovering that the problematic ones were standing out too strongly in our memories, b) getting him to put more effort in and/or make it clear when he's just guessing, or c) mitigating his community impact if neither of the first two happens.
This week's questions understandably focused heavily on the Flyers roster. In the summer, we were at times frustrated by answers he gave that did not seem to give enough consideration to cap issues; and we are pleased to report that as the season draws closer, this flaw seems to have been corrected.
From saying that he thinks Matt Walker's cap hit will keep him off the team to expressing skepticism about Holmgren's claim that Schenn and Couturier might both make the team, it is clear that Carchidi has spent some time with the numbers and formed a viable opinion. Whether his specific predictions turn out to be right remains to be seen, but it is good to see that he's doing his homework.
After the jump, we review the new predictions and results from the past week.
There is only one result to report on at this point. Last week, we included his prediction that there was a 20% chance Nylander would make the team and our belief that it wouldn't happen. Some objected because this is not truly a testable hypothesis, and we acknowledged that this was one he could win (if Nylander made the team) but couldn't lose.
However, if there is any way to be wrong with a "20%" prediction, this may be it: later that day, Holmgren announced that Nylander was healthy and ready to play, and the following day the Flyers cut him before he ever got in a game.
There are several new predictions this week as Carchidi has fielded many questions about the roster. Carchidi sees Lilja and Bartulis getting the 6th and 7th defense spots respectively, Read as a lock to take Nodl's spot, and Rinaldo being very likely to make the team at least to start the season. The one confusing part is that he thinks the odds are very high for Schenn and 50/50 for Couturier, even though he doesn't see how Schenn and Couturier could both make it.
|Carchidi says||BSH response||Coinflip vs Carchidi||Results|
|Lilja will be the #6 D, Bartulis #7||Mixed opinion. Travis and Eric agree; Geoff thinks Walker is in.||Tails = disagree|
|Read is a lock to make the team||Agree.||Tails = disagree|
|Read takes Nodl's roster spot||Maybe his lineup spot, but not his roster spot.||Tails = disagree|
|Betts is on the roster bubble||Disagree. Betts is a near-lock; his fourth line skill and cap hit are very favorable.||Tails = disagree|
|Schenn is very likely to make the team, Couturier is 50/50||Schenn likely starts in AHL to make room for at least a 9-game Couturier tryout.||Heads = agree|
|Rinaldo is very likely to make the team||Decent chance for first five games, unlikely beyond.||Heads = agree|
|Cap constraints make it hard to keep Couturier or Walker||They can both fit if Schenn is in the AHL, which seems increasingly possible.||Heads = agree|
|Bob might be the opening night starter in four years||He'll either regress or get traded, but Flyers won't have a solid #1 goalie on their bench for four years.||Tails = disagree|
|Jagr will have 18 goals, 50 points||Higher, more like 22 and 60 over a full season||Tails = disagree|
|20% chance Nylander makes the team||Won't happen; already have too many 1-way offensive players||Heads = agree||Cut the next day. Homer says he's healthy, but no room for him.|
|Bryzgalov's only weakness is getting too revved up for the playoffs||Let's not talk about clutch, especially for a goalie with a .916 career Sv% and .917 in playoffs||Heads = agree|
|Flyers will not be better this year, but are better suited for the playoffs||No. Worse teams are worse. And since the lockout, offensive teams have done better than defensive. And didn't you just say you think Bryz is bad in the playoffs?||Tails = disagree|
|Simmonds will contribute more on offense this year.||Disagree. Expect ~35 pts on a checking line with a rookie center.||Heads = agree|
|Betts, Shelley, and Nodl are in danger of losing jobs to Couturier, Sestito, and Read.||Disagree. Sestito won't make team and Couturier and Betts play different roles. Read may take Nodl's role, but not roster spot.||Heads = agree|
|The Flyers want Bobrovsky here, and are not showing him off to other teams.||Flyers may intend to keep Bob, but must also be thinking about trade with Bryz locked in as starter.||Tails = disagree|
|Bobrovsky will play about 20 games this year.||Agree. That's what his backups have gotten the last three years.||Tails = disagree|
|No worries the Flyers miss the playoffs.||Disagree. BSH expects playoffs, but it's not guaranteed -- could be hard to replace Carter/Richards' defense, elder defensemen could slow down or get hurt, etc.||Heads = agree|