Earlier today, I posted a look at how adjustments for score effects can help us make better predictions than narrowing our sample size to look just at tied games. Let's take a quick look at where Score-Adjusted Fenwick differs from Fenwick Tied for this year's teams (thanks to George E. Ays for the suggestion).
Full table after the jump.
|Team||Score-Adjusted Fenwick||Fenwick Tied||Fenwick Close|
The team that originally started me down this path was the Capitals, who have been very good in tied games but bad in all other situations. I believe Fenwick Tied overrates them considerably.
The other team substantially overrated by Fenwick Tied is Florida (48.6% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 50.8% Fenwick Tied). New Jersey, Columbus, and Calgary also each look a bit overrated by Fenwick Tied.
At the other end of the scale, our very own Flyers appear to be badly underrated by Fenwick Tied (51.1% Score-Adjusted Fenwick, versus 48.0% Fenwick Tied). Vancouver (53.0% vs 50.8%) and Nashville (46.0% vs 44.0%) also appear to be badly underrated.
As should not be a surprise given how the numbers are derived, Fenwick Close often lies about halfway between Fenwick Tied and Score-Adjusted Fenwick, both in absolute value and in predictive accuracy.