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I've written a few times this year about Score-Adjusted Fenwick, which adjusts a team's shot differential (Fenwick) to account for score effects (the tendency of teams to go into a shell to protect a lead). This statistic is extremely important because of its close correlation with things like puck possession, offensive zone time, and generation of scoring chances -- if you know a team's shot differential and their goaltending skill, you know almost all of what you need to predict their future performance.
Of course, things change during the year as a result of injuries, trades, and other lineup changes. Using a larger sample size to minimize fluctuations is almost always better, but we do know that playoff predictions based on a team's last 30 games are more accurate than predictions based on their first 70 because of the impact of those in-season changes. So as we prepare for the playoffs, I'll present both the final Score-Adjusted Fenwick and the Score-Adjusted Fenwick since the trade deadline.
| Team | Final Score-Adjusted Fenwick | Score-Adjusted Fenwick since trade deadline |
| PIT | 55.2 (1) | 55.9 (2) |
| DET | 55.2 (2) | 53.7 (4) |
| STL | 54.5 (3) | 54.1 (3) |
| LA | 53.3 (4) | 57.5 (1) |
| CHI | 52.8 (5) | 53.5 (5) |
| BOS | 52.8 (6) | 51.1 (10) |
| SJ | 52.8 (7) | 50.8 (11) |
| VAN | 52.4 (8) | 52.3 (8) |
| PHI | 51.3 (9) | 49.6 (19) |
| NJ | 51.2 (10) | 52.7 (7) |
| WPG | 50.7 (11) | 50.2 (13) |
| OTT | 50.5 (12) | 52.9 (6) |
| COL | 50.1 (13) | 50.4 (12) |
| DAL | 49.9 (14) | 48.3 (21) |
| NYR | 49.5 (15) | 50.1 (16) |
| FLA | 49.4 (16) | 49.6 (18) |
| WSH | 49.2 (17) | 51.5 (9) |
| PHX | 49.0 (18) | 47.9 (23) |
| BUF | 48.7 (19) | 50.2 (14) |
| ANA | 48.5 (20) | 50.1 (15) |
| NYI | 48.4 (21) | 48.2 (22) |
| CAR | 48.1 (22) | 47.3 (25) |
| MTL | 47.7 (23) | 45.0 (28) |
| TB | 47.4 (24) | 46.5 (27) |
| EDM | 47.4 (25) | 47.3 (24) |
| CGY | 47.3 (26) | 50.0 (17) |
| TOR | 47.2 (27) | 43.6 (30) |
| CBJ | 47.1 (28) | 46.8 (26) |
| NSH | 46.7 (29) | 49.2 (20) |
| MIN | 44.3 (30) | 43.7 (29) |
Some things to note:
- The Flyers' roster changed a lot down the stretch due to injury and trade. The additions of Nicklas Grossmann and Pavel Kubina have not been enough to make up for the losses of Andrej Meszaros and James van Riemsdyk.
- Pittsburgh led the league in Score-Adjusted Fenwick despite playing most of the season without Sidney Crosby. If Marc-Andre Fleury can give them above-average goaltending, they will be very tough to beat.
- Los Angeles is ridiculously hot. They have outshot 13 straight opponents, a streak dating back to March 11. They outshot those opponents 451-302 and only lost two games in regulation during that span. And it wasn't a creampuff schedule -- 8 of those 13 opponents are headed to the playoffs.
- In February, a Washington-Boston matchup sounded completely lopsided, but since the deadline, Washington's Score-Adjusted Fenwick has actually been slightly better than Boston's.
- Nashville was among the worst possession teams over the first 60 games, but their deadline moves improved the team to nearly average. Is that enough for Pekka Rinne to carry them?