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We said all along that the Philadelphia Flyers had near-impossible odds to win the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery, and ultimately they did not win the first overall pick. But they obviously were the big winners in the event, jumping 11 spots from 13th overall to 2nd overall. There was just 2.4 percent chance of that happening.
It wasn’t just the biggest jump this year, though. It was the biggest jump all-time in the NHL Draft Lottery, dating back to the first drawing in 1995.
That’s partially due to the rules. From 1995 to 2012, the lottery allowed any team to move up as many, but no more than, four spots. Beginning in 2015, the NHL allowed any team in the lottery to win the first overall pick, and starting in 2016 — in part to avoid the tanking that many teams blatantly performed during the Connor McDavid sweepstakes the year prior — the lottery was expanded to include the top three picks.
There’s a fresh drawing for each of the three picks, with the odds changing based on each. The Flyers had a 2.4 percent chance in the second-place drawing that they won, while they had a 2.2 percent chance in the first-place drawing and a 2.7 percent chance at third. More drawings means a more of a chance for a big jump like we saw from the Philadelphia-assigned ping pong balls this year.
NHL Draft Lottery History
| Year | Winner | Effect | Change | Player taken by winner | No. 1 overall pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Effect | Change | Player taken by winner | No. 1 overall pick |
| 1995 | Los Angeles | Moved from 7th to 3rd | up 4 | Aki Berg | Bryan Berard |
| 1996 | Ottawa | Kept 1st pick | none | Chris Phillips | Chris Phillips |
| 1997 | Boston | Kept 1st pick | none | Joe Thornton | Joe Thornton |
| 1998 | San Jose (traded to TB) | Moved from 3rd to 1st | up 2 | Vincent Lecavalier | Vincent Lecavalier |
| 1999 | Chicago (traded to NYR) | Moved from 8th to 4th | up 4 | Pavel Brendl | Patrik Stefan |
| 2000 | NY Islanders | Moved from 5th to 1st | up 4 | Rick DiPietro | Rick DiPietro |
| 2001 | Atlanta | Moved from 3rd to 1st | up 2 | Ilya Kovalchuk | Ilya Kovalchuk |
| 2002 | Florida (traded to CBJ) | Moved from 3rd to 1st | up 2 | Rick Nash | Rick Nash |
| 2003 | Florida (traded to PIT) | Moved from 4th to 1st | up 3 | Marc-Andre Fleury | Marc-Andre Fleury |
| 2004 | Washington | Moved from 3rd to 1st | up 2 | Alex Ovechkin | Alex Ovechkin |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | not applicable, lockout | who cares | Sidney Crosby | Sidney Crosby |
| 2006 | St. Louis | Kept 1st pick | none | Erik Johnson | Erik Johnson |
| 2007 | Chicago | RIGGED | up 4 | Patrick Kane | Patrick Kane |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | Kept 1st pick | none | Steven Stamkos | Steven Stamkos |
| 2009 | NY Islanders | Kept 1st pick | none | John Tavares | John Tavares |
| 2010 | Edmonton | Kept 1st pick | none | Taylor Hall | Taylor Hall |
| 2011 | New Jersey | Moved from 8th to 4th | up 4 | Adam Larsson | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| 2012 | Edmonton | Moved from 2nd to 1st | up 1 | Nail Yakupov | Nail Yakupov |
| 2013 | Colorado | Moved from 2nd to 1st | up 1 | Nathan MacKinnon | Nathan MacKinnon |
| 2014 | Florida | Moved from 2nd to 1st | up 1 | Aaron Ekblad | Aaron Ekblad |
| 2015 | Edmonton | Moved from 3rd to 1st | up 2 | Connor McDavid | Connor McDavid |
| 2016 | Toronto | Kept 1st pick | none | Auston Matthews | Auston Matthews |
| 2016 | Winnipeg | Moved from 6th to 2nd | up 4 | Patrik Laine | |
| 2016 | Columbus | Moved from 4th to 3rd | up 1 | Pierre-Luc DuBois | |
| 2017 | New Jersey | Moved from 5th to 1st | up 4 | ||
| 2017 | Philadelphia | Moved from 13th to 2nd | up 11 | ||
| 2017 | Dallas | Moved from 8th to 3rd | up 5 |
Three drawings were made on Saturday night at the studios of Rogers’ Sportsnet in Toronto -- one for each of the top three picks, in order. Here’s how the NHL explains the method, which was overseen by the accounting firm Ernst & Young:
For each of the three drawings, 14 balls, numbered 1 to 14, were placed in a lottery machine. The machine randomly selected four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) was matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the clubs to which each was assigned. The chart showed that the Devils had been assigned the numbers (1-5-6-12) that were expelled in the first drawing, followed by the Flyers (5-6-8-12) in the second drawing and the Stars (2-6-8-13) in the third drawing.
It took 10 years, but we’ll now officially consider the ping pong balls absolved following their betrayal of the Flyers in the 2007 NHL Draft Lottery.