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Projecting point production through November

Frost and Kalynuk still doing pretty well. O’Brien and Hain still adapting to the NCAA.

Philadelphia Flyers v New York Rangers Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

After a brief mention of it last year, we’ve decided to provide a monthly update on each of thePhiladelphia Flyers’ prospects NHL equivalency projections (or NHLe). As stated when the original article was posted last season, this is by no means a perfect way to measure how a prospect is developing, but it one of the better measures we currently have at our disposal.

With another month down, it’s time to check in on how the Philadelphia Flyers’ prospects are doing in terms of point production. If you aren’t familiar with how NHLe is calculated, it’s explained pretty well in last month’s article. As I stated in that article, it’s far from a perfect measuring stick for prospects, but with some context it gives us an idea how each prospect is producing in relation to their level of competition. With that out of the way, let’s see how the kids are doing.

NHLe through December 3rd

Player Team League Age Year in League Games Goals Assists Points NHLe
Player Team League Age Year in League Games Goals Assists Points NHLe
Morgan Frost SSM Greyhounds OHL 19 4 29 19 36 55 50
Wade Allison Western Michigan University NCAA (NCHC) 21 3 4 2 2 4 35
Isaac Ratcliffe Guelph Storm OHL 19 4 27 19 14 33 32
Matthew Strome Hamilton Bulldogs OHL 19 4 28 10 22 32 30
Tanner Laczynski Ohio State University NCAA (Big Ten) 21 3 13 5 9 14 29
Mike Vecchione Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 25 2 21 6 9 15 28
German Rubtsov Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 20 1 14 6 4 10 28
Philippe Myers Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 21 2 21 5 9 14 26
David Kase Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 21 1 18 4 8 12 26
Mikhail Vorobyev Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 21 2 13 3 6 9 25
Wyatt Kalynuk University of Wisconsin NCAA (Big Ten) 21 2 16 6 7 13 22
Wyatte Wylie Everett Silvertips WHL 19 4 30 6 20 26 21
Maxim Sushko Owen Sound Attack OHL 19 3 29 6 16 22 20
Mark Friedman Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 22 3 21 1 10 11 20
Nicolas Aube-Kubel Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 22 4 13 6 5 11 19
Taylor Leier Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 24 4 17 4 4 8 18
Yegor Zamula Calgary Hitmen WHL 18 2 29 4 16 20 17
Joel Farabee Boston University NCAA (Hockey East) 18 1 13 3 4 7 17
Olle Lycksell Linkoping HC SHL 19 2 23 2 6 8 16
Noah Cates University of Minnesota-Duluth NCAA (NCHC) 19 1 14 3 3 6 15
Jack St. Ivany Yale University NCAA (ECAC) 19 1 9 1 5 6 15
Tyrell Goulbourne Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 24 2 13 1 3 4 10
Cole Bardreau Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 25 5 20 4 1 5 9
Carsen Twarynski Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 21 2 17 1 3 4 9
Connor Bunnaman Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 20 1 13 2 1 3 9
Adam Ginning Linkoping HC SHL 18 3 23 1 3 4 8
Valeri Vasiliev Severstal Cherepovets KHL 24 7 15 1 1 2 8
Marcus Westfalt Brynas IF SHL 18 2 12 0 0 0 8
Brendan Warren University of Michigan NCAA (Big Ten) 21 4 15 1 2 3 5
Reece Willcox Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 24 4 14 0 2 2 5
Linus Hogberg Vaxjo Lakers HC SHL 20 4 22 2 0 2 4
David Bernhardt Djurgardens IF SHL 21 3 14 0 1 1 3
Radel Fazleev Lehigh Valley Phantoms AHL 22 3 11 0 1 1 3
Jay O'Brien Providence College NCAA (Hockey East) 19 1 9 1 0 1 3
Gavin Hain University of North Dakota NCAA (NCHC) 18 1 9 0 1 1 3
Sam Morin Philadelphia Flyers NHL 23 3 0 0 0 0 0
Pascal Laberge Philadelphia Flyers NHL 20 1 0 0 0 0 0


  • Morgan Frost is still lighting the world on fire. He currently leads the OHL with 36 assists and 55 points. Out of the 284 forwards who have played in the OHL this season, Frost is fifth with 30 5-on-5 points and fourth with a 1.03 5-on-5 points-per-game average among forwards with at least six games played or more.
  • What might be a little more surprising is that Wyatt Kalynuk is still near the top of this table two months into the season. Kalynuk is second on the University of Wisconsin Badgers with six goals behind forward Sean Dhooghe’s seven and second on the team with 13 points behind K’Andre Miller, who was taken 22nd overall by the New York Rangers earlier this year. After averaging three shots per game through October, Kalynuk is down to 2.63 (his average last year was 2.62). He did record a two-point game (one goal and an assist) in Wisconsin’s 8-5 win over Penn State this past Saturday. Kalynuk also leads the Badgers with 57 total shot attempts at 5-on-5, 47 total shot attempts on the power play, and is tied for the team-lead with 31 blocks.
  • Kase has still produced the equivalent of 26 points in a full NHL season despite a six-game point drought from the middle of November until the beginning of December. He racked up a pair of assists in the Lehigh Valley Phantoms’ 5-2 decision over the Toronto Marlies on Sunday. Despite producing at the same clip, Kase has seen a dip in his possession numbers. A positive relative Corsi for percentage player the last time we went over NHLe, Kase has a -2.66 relative Corsi for percentage with a 43.5 Corsi for percentage at 5-on-5. His 28 individual shot attempts at 5-on-5 isn’t great, as it puts him 13th on the team, but his plus-6 penalty differential is second to only Phil Varone. Overall, as a 21-year-old fifth round pick in his first season in the AHL, Kase is doing pretty well. To compare, just 11 of the 90 picks taken in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft have played a game or more in the NHL. It’s not out of the question for Kase to be there next season.
  • One of the more unfortunate stories of the season so far is the fact that German Rubtsov is now out for the remainder of 2018-19. Before he had shoulder surgery to repair an injury that took place in the Phantoms’ 5-4 win over the Providence Bruins on November 16, Rubtsov had produced the equivalent of 28 NHL points over an entire season with 10 points in 14 AHL games. The 2016 first-round pick hasn’t caught a lot of breaks over the years (moving to North America, other injuries) and didn’t have the most jaw-dropping point totals despite playing in the QMJHL over his junior career. However, he did serve an important role in the Acadie-Bathurst Titan’s run to a Memorial Cup last season and was doing very well early in this AHL campaign. Hopefully The Germ can come back next season and pick up where he left off.
  • Wade Allison made his season debut since we last looked at NHLe, and he hasn’t disappointed in his limited action to date. In his first four games, Allison potted a pair of goals and recorded a pair of assists. Obviously a small sample size, as illustrated by the fact he has put the puck on net four times this season and has a pair of goals, but it’s a good start after the power forward missed the end of last season with a torn ACL and sprained shoulder. Mentioned by former Flyers’ general manager Ron Hextall in his parting press conference as a possible player with energy who will be in the NHL soon, the Western Michigan University Broncs can attest to the difference the Big Red Train makes when in the lineup. A few of his goal celebrations from his time with the Tri-City Storm in the USHL can probably serve as evidence to that statement as well.
  • In the WHL, both Wyatte Wylie and Yegor Zamula are doing pretty well. Wylie leads all defensemen on the Everett Silvertips with 26 points in 30 games, which also puts him seventh in points among all WHL d-men. He and teammate Jake Christiansen are the only two defensemen in the WHL with over 100 shots on net. Out of the 115 WHL d-men who have played in 20 games or more this season, Wylie is tied for 17th with nine 5-on-5 points and tied for eighth with eight primary points at 5-on-5, as his 65.71 5-on-5 goals for percentage (23 for, 12 against) has resulted in a 9.35 relative goals for percentage. As for Zamula, he leads all Calgary Hitmen d-men with 20 points in 29 games. He doesn’t throw as many pucks to the net as Wylie (57 shots in 29 games), but Zamula has produced pretty well at 5-on-5. Of the 197 defensemen to play in the WHL this season, Zamula is tied for tenth with 10 5-on-5 points to go along with his 59.05 goals for percentage (26 for, 18 against). Zamula and Myers are the only two draft-eligible free agents Hextall signed in his tenure. It’s a little early to say whether or not Zamula will be the next Myers, but he does look pretty good so far this season.

*Stats via Prospect-Stats and Phancy Stats

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