What Is Our High Pick Actually Worth?

After one of the worst seasons in team history, the Flyers are set to have a fairly high pick in the NHL draft. Let's see if the NHL-ready impact player we're all mentally penciling into our lineup next year is anything like what we're actually likely to receive with that pick.

Draft lottery odds currently give us the following probabilities for overall picks:

1st 9.5%

2nd 9.8%

4th 15.4%

5th 44.9%

6th 20.5%

So we are by far most likely to pick 5th overall. Given that, let's look at what value the 5th overall pick in the draft has yielded over the last 10 seasons. Here's a list of the seven forwards drafted between 2010 and 2019, with their overall rank among all NHL forwards in each of four statistical categories (5-on-5 points, 5-on-5 points per 60, individual expected goals, and individual expected goals per 60).

Player Name/Rank among NHL forwards

P P/60 ixG ixG/60

Nino Niederreiter 69 77 23 25

Ryan Strome 89 140 158 289

Elias Lindholm 31 54 16 59

Michael Dal Colle 592 534 610 422

Elias Pettersson 139 229 111 220

Barrett Hayton 284 329 341 439

Alex Turcotte 638 534 519 140

Avg: 263 279 253 228

So from a purely statistical standpoint, it appears the this pick has yielded one exceptional 1st line player, two borderline 1st liners (one of which has high-end potential), one player who appears so far to be a mid-tier second liner, and three busts who are probably either limited to 4th line production, or who haven't been able to sustain a spot in an NHL lineup at all.

For comparison, here is how newly-acquired lineup addition Owen Tippett compares:

Owen Tippett 283 308 198 124

I doubt that, before looking at this data, most of us would willingly trade our pick this season for Owen Tippett in a vacuum. However, given that the average player we're likely to receive appears to be similar in point production with much less goal scoring potential, it might be wise to reconsider our expectations.

This item was written by a member of this community and is not necessarily endorsed by <em>Broad Street Hockey</em>.