SO here we are again. The Flyers hold the 5th overall pick in the 2022 NHL draft - and don't pick in the 2nd round currently, making it even more essential that we get a good player in the 1st. So what do the various prognosticators think about the draft eligible players out there? I compiled the results of 19 separate mock drafts and/or draft rankings, and then averaged each player's position to create a composite ranking. (If I add more I will update the rankings in the comments.)
There are some surprises - but not at the upper end, where we are primarily concerned. Shane Wright garnered 18 out of 19 first-overall votes (the outlier being Corey Pronman, FWIW) for a final composite draft position of 1.05.
In second with a 2.68 score is Logan Cooley, as 7 rankings placed him 2nd overall and none lower than 4th (again McKeens).
The only other player to get a vote for first overall (Pronman) was Juraj Slafkovsky ... but he also was placed as low as 7th (McKeens) which made his overall average draft position only 3.53, good for 3rd overall.
Coming in 4th with a score of 4.53 is Simon Nemec - his highest rating was 2nd (McKeens and Dobbers) with a low of 9th (TSN - MacKensie and Smaht Scouting).
Now we come to the important one ... or two? Only a tiny difference separates the next two players' composite scores - the first managed a 6.26; the second gets a 6.58. Squeaking out the win for 5th overall is David Jiricek, seeing a range from 2nd (Elite Prospects) to 11th (FC Hockey, McKeens, and Recruit Scouting).
Following close on Jiricek's heels for 6th here is Matthew Savoie, who was ranked as high as 2nd (Draft Prospects) but had his average torpedoed by Craig Button of TSN placing him 17th overall. If you remove those two outliers, Savoie actually pushes just past Jiricek with a 6.24 composite score; Savoie had an overall variance of 15, the highest of the top 8 in our ranking.
A hairsbreadth behind the two ostensible 5th and 6th overall picks is Joakim Kemell, with a respectable 7.00 landing him solidly in 7th. Actually, Kemell was ranked 3rd by both commentators at TSN (Button and Mackensie) with a low ranking of 12th from Smaht Scouting; looking at the standard distribution leaves Kemell consistent with a 6.93 rating.
From the 7th composite to the 8th we have the first real evidence of a drop in tier. Cutter Gauthier found 4 votes for 6th overall and two for 7th - but also as low as 28th (!!! The Puck Authority) with several below the top half of the draft, giving him an overall composite of 11.90 and tying him for 7th in our rankings. Gauthier's variance of 22 gives me pause about his placement this high - but hey, risk nothing win nothing, right?
Showing a more consistent ranking in line with his composite of 11.90 and thereby tying Gauthier for 8th is Jonathan Lekkerimaki. While only Dobbers and THW ranked him as high as 7th in actuality, no one dropped on his ability like they did Gauthier's - Lekkerimaki's lowest was 21st from both Elite Prospects and McKeens, with most scores coming in a tighter range around 12.
Rounding out our top 10 composite rankings with a 13.68 is Frank Nazar. However, NHL.com's Moreale didn't even place Nazar in his first round mock draft (earning him a placeholder score of 33 for our purposes and rendering his computed variance null), while Elite Prospects placed him 4th overall!
In fact, the only remaining prospect to appear on all the top-32 lists used was Denton Mateychuk (16.16 composite good for 13th overall). Our #11, Danila Yurov, went unranked by NHL-Moreale and THN; #12 Pavel Mintyukov was also unranked by THN (are they showing an anti-Russian bias? That would be dumb, considering that Mintyukov already plays for Saginaw ... but it is THN, so ...)
2022 composite draft rankings score:
|Lucas Del Bel Belluz||29.579|