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NHL draft 2015: Why I think Ivan Provorov will become a Flyer tonight

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It just seems to add up.

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SB Nation's 2015 NHL Draft Tracker

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Look, the NHL Draft is totally unpredictable and you can't take anybody for their word here. But for conversation's sake, let's assume that we can take people for their word -- that reports aren't totally inaccurate and that if you pay attention, you can piece things together and maybe even be accurate.

After doing that and thinking about it for a while, I think defenseman Ivan Provorov will be on the board when the Philadelphia Flyers step to the microphone with the No. 7 pick tonight. And if he is, I think they take him without hesitation. Hear me out.

1. Connor McDavid. 2. Jack Eichel. Obviously.

Then at No. 3, it really seems like the Arizona Coyotes are taking Dylan Strome. That is, if they keep the pick. Other scenarios have them taking Noah Hanifin or maybe an outside shot at Mitch Marner. If somebody does trade up to take this pick, then they're not trading up to take Provorov at No. 3. They're going after Strome or Hanifin or Marner.

At No. 4 ... well, this is where it gets tricky. There's a feeling that the Leafs could take Provorov. Or, there was. Then we get this report today:

Apparently he's not even in their top five. So through four picks tonight, it will be some combination of McDavid, Eichel, Strome/Marner/Hanifin. And you have to assume that Carolina, picking at No. 5, will take which ever of those guys is still on the board. (I mean, they have to right?)

The New Jersey Devils then become the big question. Everybody seems to think they're picking a forward no matter what -- it's certainly what their fans want. Here's what Devils blog In Lou We Trust said in their mock draft, where they took Mathew Barzal.

It became quickly apparent that the choice was either to disappoint a lot of Devils fans by taking a defenseman or picking from the second tier of forward prospects. As the Devils have needed an offensive forward prospect for years, it was easy to take the latter route. Picking from that group wasn't as easy. After quickly consulting with CJ, Brian, Alex, and Gerard, the consensus was clear: I chose Mathew Barzal of the Seattle Thunderbirds with the sixth overall pick.

If that all happens -- and if nothing else, it feels like the most likely scenario -- Provorov's still on the board at No. 7. According to reports, Provorov is at the top of the Flyers' list after the top 5 guys.

Now, could they go get somebody like Mikko Rantanen instead? He's interviewed with the Flyers a million times, including here in Florida at the draft, and it's clear there's interest in him. But that could just be contingency in case Provorov isn't there.

Provorov will be the best player on the board at No. 7 if he's there, and the Flyers have said that they're going to take the best available player regardless of position or organizational need.

The more I put all the pieces together in my head, the more it really feels like he will be a Flyer around 8 p.m. ET tonight. But I guess we'll have to wait and see for sure.