Slotting in at No. 16 on our list is right winger Justin Carbonneau, a projected mid-first round pick from the QMJHL’s Blainville-Boisbrand Armada. Carbonneau has almost unanimously fallen between the pick 10 and pick 20 range throughout the entire leadup to the draft, as the second best forward from the Q after Moncton’s Caleb Desnoyers.
As we reach this point in the list, we are really getting into players where every pick is a balance between risk, talent, and “safe” players with projectable floors. Carbonneau falls into the higher risk, bet on talent part of that, with some high end offensive skills (especially on the rush) and some really glaring deficiencies that may sink his NHL ceiling. Carbonneau’s quite the confident player with the puck, but there’s legitimate issues with his overall feel for the game and defensive awareness. So, let’s get into what makes Carbonneau such an intriguing case for a mid-first round team.
Pre-draft rankings
No. 10 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
No. 13 by Elite Prospects
No. 17 by TSN (Bob McKenzie)
No. 13 by Daily Faceoff
Bio
DOB: November 25, 2006
Birthplace: Lévis, Quebec, Canada
Position: Right Winger
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 192 lbs
Shoots: Right
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Carbonneau’s pure offensive skills are without a doubt some of the best you can find in this draft class, with a really good shot and an uncanny ability to always be in-and-around dangerous areas and chance-creating sequences for the Armada. If you get a chance to watch a Blainville-Boisbrand game, you’ll likely notice Carbonneau at the center of everything in the offensive zone, executing offensively in various different ways.
Carbonneau can get it done in the offensive zone in whatever way you ask him to, really. Sniping a shot from the circle? He can do that. Finding teammates in dangerous areas, whether in the slot or at the side of the net? He can do that from almost anywhere on the ice. Carbonneau has even shown the ability to fight for his own rebounds and be a netfront presence, as the Armada’s QMJHL-best powerplay often featured Carbonneau parked right at the front of the net, in addition to his positioning along the half-wall.
But, without a doubt, Carbonneau makes his money as a transition player. Carbonneau can fly from one end to the other, and while his starting speed might be a step slow right now, he’s got a powerful stride that moves him down the ice in a blink. Once he gets going, there’s not a lot the defenders (especially weak ones in the Q) can do to get in the way of Carbonneau. The perfect example is the play below, where Carbonneau picks up a loose puck at the defensive blueline and accelerates down the ice in a 2-on-1, before finding a trailing teammate for an easy goal.
Carbonneau also has been commended for having incredible passing vision, finding teammates in the offensive zone in tight areas and unexpected places. He can make the easy pass, or he can make the outstandingly difficult low-percentage one, finding a lane that seemed very unavailable initially. That occurs in the next highlight clip, where Carbonneau peels off the wall and goes all the way cross ice to find a teammate.
And finally, Carbonneau’s stickhandling is another hallmark of his game, as he’s able to make high-quality and high-difficulty moves on the move and in small spaces on the ice. It’s not exactly a high percentage play that Carbonneau makes, but it says something about the skill of the player that Carbonneau can pull highlights like the one below off with some regularity. It probably won’t work much at all in the NHL and will lead to bad things the other way (more on this later), but the confidence just oozes off of Carbonneau’s stick.
Justin Carbonneau (#2025NHLDraft) has that ability to just take over games on his own. It's still a work in progress, but sequences like these make you wonder how high he'll soar.
— Hadi Kalakeche (@HadiK_Scouting) December 14, 2024
Ridiculous skill and dynamism. #QMJHL pic.twitter.com/c8QztcblDC
What’s not to like?
You’d think with some of the best puckhandling skills, high-end passing vision, plus skating, and an ability to score from wherever, that Carbonneau would be a slam dunk lottery pick with top-line potential. However, the absolutely glaring holes in Carbonneau’s game are too large to ignore. Namely, Carbonneau really has absolutely no idea what is going on defensively 95% of the time, and has some really confusing play selection that makes you wonder about what he can translate to the pros.
His play selection is also very questionable, often throwing errant passes into the slot that head the other way for turnovers, picking the wrong time to try a stick handle, and other plays of that ilk. This is probably a combination of two things with Carbonneau. For one, Carbonneau is used to getting away with a whole lot in the QMJHL, the weakest North American junior league outside of (probably) the USHL. There are times where Carbonneau can pull off seemingly impossible passes through multiple defenders, and times where Carbonneau can coast end to end. There’s something to be said for Carbonneau even being able to complete those kinds of plays, but in the majority of shifts where he doesn’t, it’s a massive problem.
The other half of the equation, though, is simply doubts about Carbonneau’s overall hockey IQ. Carbonneau’s one of the most dynamic passers and offensive chance creators in this draft class, but if he can never adjust to NHL-situations, it’s going to be rough sledding with various coaches along the way. Meaning, Carbonneau really doesn’t know when to pick his spots to try high-difficulty maneuvers, and it seems like high-difficulty is almost his default at times. That could be a promising template for some teams to work with, but it also could be something that he just never really gets better at. When you combine a propensity for turnovers with a disinterest in defensive work, you find some real flaws with Carbonneau and his NHL ceiling.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Carbonneau…doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in what we typically consider a Flyers’ system and a Flyers’ identity. That might be annoying for some who want the Flyers to take a bet on offensive upside, but I really doubt the Flyers would be jumping at the opportunity to pick a player that has such maddening flaws in other facets. The Flyers need offensive creators like Carbonneau, but what they don’t particularly need is one-dimensional wingers that rely a lot on their centers to do everything defensively. As we’ll dive into a little deeper below, just not sure how it makes any stylistic sense for what we know about the Flyers to pick Justin Carbonneau.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
As with a lot of players in this range, Carbonneau is likely not going to be in the Orange and Black come draft day. Carbonneau is in the tier clearly planted in the middle of the first round, and will likely go anywhere from pick 10 to pick 20. Sure, the Flyers could jump up into those picks to take a swing on Carbonneau, but I think they’d be more likely to do that for other players that fit their typical draft profiles.
Thinking about the players the Flyers usually draft in the first round, they are usually players that come in with higher grades in the hockey IQ category. Players like Tyson Foerster, Joel Farabee, Jett Luchanko, even Michkov (although he was a slam-dunk pick). Justin Carbonneau, considering the faults in his game discussed above, simply does not fit that bill. There’s always a chance those patterns change with the Flyers, but I would imagine they aren’t overly enthusiastic about the player to the point where they’d trade up.
What scouts are saying
“I said it in December and I’ll say it again. If the NHL were a one-on-one or two-on-two league, Carbonneau is likely a top five pick. This is not that, however. Carbonneau is a very skilled, very confident offensive player with huge slot pass volumes and dangerous shot attempts. He’s a very good offensive transition player in transition, especially carrying the puck, but my god are there holes in his game. Those slot passes are often directed at nobody. His raw pass volumes and success are very poor for a scoring forward. He’s ineffective defensively and leaky on backchecks that I just have so many questions about. Similar to Cam Schmidt, he’s everywhere on my list given the week, but he can be simultaneously so interesting and so frustrating and in a sea of players with a bit more confidence to reach important NHL roles, it just knocks him down a few pegs in this tier.”
“Carbonneau is a high-volume shooter who finished second in Quebec League scoring with 46G-43A in the regular season. He averages over 21 minutes per game of ice time, with the bulk of his role coming at even strength and the primary power play unit. I appreciate his secondary battle. Carbonneau never gives up on a play. He works to extend zone time and has a very quick stick. He strips opponents of the puck and makes plays before defenders have an opportunity to react.
His small area playmaking is an elite element that he possesses compared to some others in this draft class. There’s room for improvement with his skating stride, but he gets from point A to point B on time.”
“Carbonneau is on the older side as a November 2006 birthday, but he broke the 30-goal mark as the Armada’s leading goal scorer and second-leading point-getter last season and then broke the 45-goal mark this year as one of the Q’s leading scorers. In a rebound year for the Q as a whole, he’s their clear second-best prospect after Desnoyers. He also played well in the CHL-USA Prospects Challenge, which I think is important for the Q kids to demonstrate.
Carbonneau’s a talented offensive-zone player with naturally quick hands, a quick release that can beat goalies from midrange and change angles on defensemen and strong athletic tools as a solid kid and sturdy skater with a pro frame. He can challenge defenders and threaten offensively on or off the puck. He’s got good outside-in hands pulling pucks across his body. He’s got a good wall game. He can make plays for himself or play in and out of give-and-gos. He’s a volume shot generator without sacrificing shot quality. And he has really grown into the body of a power forward, with a very strong physical build and an ability to play through contact. When there’s an opportunity inside the offensive zone, whether it’s off a broken play or in tight, he’s usually there to capitalize and make something happen. I don’t think he’s got star power but he looks like he’s quite skilled — skilled enough to project as a strong and productive top-nine forward. He should be a mid-first at minimum (there are some similarities between him and the Red Wings’ 2024 No. 15 pick Michael Brandsegg-Nygård).”
Entering the poll is University of Wisconsin defenseman Logan Hensler, a right-handed blueliner that’s come up through the USNTDP.
“Hensler’s clearly a talented player and good prospect but he’s not a no-doubter offensive defenseman or a lockdown defensive D type. He’s a smooth, mobile, balanced skater. He can use his feet to attack and create lanes. He’s a good athlete. He keeps his head and eyes up. He’s skilled with the puck. He’s got a decent stick and defensive instincts. He reads the play well on both sides when he’s dialed in (there are times when it can feel like he’s just out there for a skate, though). There are also times when it seems like he doesn’t know his identity as a player. I’ve really just wanted to see him take charge more on blue lines both at the NTDP and Wisconsin that could have really used a horse. Even as one of the younger players on all of his teams with both USA Hockey and the Badgers, he’s got the talent to be more impactful than he has been (and he has been good for both). It can feel like he’s unsure of himself at times out there and his game can miss that grab-it mentality. He has moments when he jumps up in transition and makes something happen and shows some exciting qualities and instincts. I want to see more of that, and an equal assertiveness defensively. My viewings were mostly positive this year but I’m still waiting for him to jump off the page at me. He’s capable of it. He’s really fluid in and out of his edges. He’s got pro size. He’s got good handles. He’s got balanced posture on his heels and toes, and he’s capable of using it to play strong stick-on-puck gaps and carry and lead in transition. He’s got poise and comfort in all three zones. He’s got skill and offense. He’s a righty. It’s in there. If it all comes together, there’s a skating, transitional, PP2 second-pairing NHL D in there. I think there’s some risk that he doesn’t take that next step and just becomes a fine depth five-on-five guy who can move pucks, though, too.”
