Slotting in at No. 23, Ivan Ryabkin is one of the most divisive players in this entire draft class, as a skilled Russian center that’s experienced quite the fall in his draft projection from the start of this cycle to now.
In most draft years, there is one or two guys that either experience dramatic rises or dramatic falls during the course of the draft year, and Ryabkin is unfortunately on the negative side of that. The case of Ryabkin harkens back to last year’s big drop of the draft, where former top-2024 Draft defenseman Aron Kiviharju fell all the way down to the Minnesota Wild at No. 122. It’s never truly a bad idea to take a reasonable swing on a player that was previously so highly rated because of their high-end skill, but it’s vital to understand the very real reasons why a player like this drops. High-end talent talks, but concerns about a player’s game to the level of Ryabkin can crater almost any level of talent to the mid-rounds. So, let’s get into the complicated case of Ivan Ryabkin.
Pre-draft rankings
No. 27 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
No. 46 by Elite Prospects
No. 19 by TSN (Bob McKenzie)
No. 23 by Daily Faceoff
Bio
DOB: April 25, 2007
Birthplace: Balakovo, Russia
Position: Center
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 198 lbs
Shoots: Left
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Ryabkin has tons of tools in his skillset, and there’s no question why Ryabkin was an early favorite in this draft class to be at minimum a lottery selection. With some sort of regularity, Ryabkin would pull off plays like the one below in the MHL, the Russian league one step under the KHL. With plays like this, and scoring numbers that outpaced Matvei Michkov and paced right with Ivan Demidov at the same age in the MHL, Ryabkin was formerly heralded as top class in this year’s draft. 58 points in 44 MHL games is a pretty gaudy number for his age group, despite the league’s defense standards being some of the weakest you’ll see in all of professional hockey.
Ryabkin can certainly dangle with the puck, but he is particularly seen as a player that creates offense for his team through his combination of physicality and skill. In the MHL, he was quite the bruising player for a developing young prospect, and gained a reputation as a player that consistently throws hits in all three zones. When Ryabkin moved to the Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL in December, Ryabkin was tasked with learning how to throw more effective hits – and by all accounts, Ryabkin improved greatly in this aspect. As noted in Mitchell Brown’s report on Ryabkin, he’s now “throwing hits to win possession, retrieving loose pucks, and breaking up the occasional play defensively.” That’s a marked change for Ryabkin from the MHL to the USHL, and will become an important hallmark of Ryabkin’s game if he hits as a playmaking, kind-of power forward type in the NHL.
When the game slows down for Ryabkin, he can really execute at a high level. His struggle to play with pace in all situations is certainly a concern for the professional leagues, but when Ryabkin is given time and space with the puck, the skills take over. Particularly on the power play, where Ryabkin often served as Muskegon’s main distributor along the half-wall, his ability to find players in tight windows is impressive. He’s pretty deceptive with the puck on his stick, and has shown a propensity for completing cross-ice feeds, and knowing when to force the puck through soft areas versus making a safe play. Even if Ryabkin can never really pick up the pace in the NHL, there are plenty of players who make their money as power play savants. That’s not a complete player of course, but there is always a spot on an NHL roster for at least one of those type of players, and Ryabkin might just be that if his all-situations play doesn’t develop.
What’s not to like?
Ryabkin is one of the most frustrating watches in this entire draft class, because you can see the talent oozing off of him, but also see some of the biggest red flags of players with high-end skillsets in this class. Ryabkin’s issues can be sorted in a few different categories – compete, hockey IQ, and coachability concerns.
First, Ryabkin’s compete is the issue that is seemingly drawing teams away from him the most. There are so many shifts with Ryabkin where he’s simply unnoticeable, particularly in his work off the puck. That’s a real issue, especially when you consider the leagues that Ryabkin has played in. He’s been in two notably weak leagues on defense – the Russian MHL and the USHL – and Ryabkin has shown little signs of defensive involvement or improvement. In the offensive zone, he may be quite the flashy player at times with the puck, but he’s not really the driver of offense that often. It’s not the same kind of elite “passenger” style that top center prospect Anton Frondell plays, though. Frondell’s elite skill is his shot, and that can be really effective in a non play-driving player archetype.
The case with Ryabkin – a player who’s best skill is his playmaking and passing ability – is that Ryabkin needs the puck on his stick more to make things happen. On most shifts, since Ryabkin’s not out-competing and outsmarting teams, he’s rarely in that position to make plays, thus making it difficult for Ryabkin. That lack of compete and overall hockey sense is something that will likely be further exposed in better leagues, and will really push teams away from the prospect this June.
There’s also the rumors that Ryabkin has been a handful to coach over the years, and while we certainly can’t put too much stock in it, it’s something to monitor. There were similar rumors about Matvei Michkov a few years ago, and those turned out to largely be exaggerated. Maybe it’s the same with Ryabkin, and the characterization as ‘hard to teach’ is shown to be unfair a couple years down the road. But, with noted concerns about Ryabkin’s actual fitness level alongside these rumors, it’s not looking great for Ryabkin in this regard.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
It’s hard to know what the Flyers are going to do with their seven picks in the first two rounds, but it would be pretty shocking to see the Flyers draft Ryabkin with one of them. It would be so unlike the Flyers in the Brent Flahr era to draft a player that’s biggest problems are concern about compete, coachability, and hockey IQ, and one who gets by solely due to high-end skill.
Thinking even back to last draft, the Flyers just don’t draft players with Ryabkin’s issues in the first couple of rounds. Jett Luchanko – high compete, two-way center that has elite traits in playmaking and skating. Jack Berglund – safe, two-way center that has a pretty solid floor as a bottom-sixer. Even 2024 fourth rounder Heikki Ruohonen was lauded for his compete level. There’s plenty of more examples in previous Brent Flahr drafts as well, and this is just in front office philosophy. With the big club, the problems with Ryabkin aren’t exactly loved in a John Tortorella system, and likely in a Rich Tocchet system. So, don’t be surprised to see the Flyers pass on Ryabkin multiple times in the draft, unless the Flyers really want to take a swing and go against previous team draft strategies.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
Certainly. Ryabkin is kinda impossible to project, as there’s chatter that he goes as high as the 20s, or as low as the third round. That’s all over the place for Ryabkin, and the Flyers have tons of picks in the 30s and 40s that they could utilize on the player if they so choose. Again, for the reasons stated above, it would be pretty shocking for a team like the Flyers to take the swing on Ryabkin, but it cannot be ruled out. The Flyers could certainly decide that Ryabkin is worth the risk, as there’s plenty of other Flyers picks in the first and second round for the team to take safer bets.
What scouts are saying
“Ryabkin is one of the most mercurial prospects in this draft and one of its toughest to slot. There are a lot of teams that will just steer clear, and I’d bet he’s a Day 2 pick now. Ryabkin entered his draft year with some excitement after a historic season in the MHL a year ago, had a three-assist, 22-minute first game of the year in the MHL this year and then was quickly promoted to the KHL. But that excitement cooled just as quickly when he couldn’t find the back of the net, his discipline on the puck (and in the penalty box) wavered and he was eventually a healthy scratch at the MHL level, which led to a move to Muskegon in the USHL only to get suspended for slew footing before he’d barely got started. Even before this year, there was talk of him being difficult to coach and work with coming out of Russia, too. And yet, he broke Matvei Michkov’s U17 scoring record in the MHL last year and put up comparable numbers to Ivan Demidov in his draft-minus-two season while being four and a half months younger than Demidov was. He has also been productive for Muskegon, finding the back of the net more and rebuilding his confidence while continuing to come and go in games and in discipline. I don’t know where I’d feel comfortable taking him but I’ve slotted him here on talent. I’d treat drafting him differently than I would other kids and would want to do my due diligence in interviews before I made a decision. He also needs to decide where he wants to play next year.
Ryabkin’s got a quick release. I like his instincts off the puck offensively to get open and jump into gaps in coverage. He’s got soft hands and makes a lot of plays off his backhand. He sees the ice well when there are plays to be made and has the finesse and touch to execute difficult passes. I like him in give-and-go plays and one-on-one inside the offensive zone. On the puck, he’s got a legit individual skill level. He’s got some real craft and creativity to his game. But his decision-making on the ice can leave a lot to be desired and he’s got some work to do to get into better shape (he’s actually a solid skater, which is why he could stand to benefit from working on his fitness). He showed last year a willingness to pursue and track pucks and looked like a player who could potentially stick at center up levels (though some are now questioning that). His work rate wavers, though, and there were some rumblings about him not being the easiest kid to play with/coach even before this season. I also find he can get ahead of the play at times (he can engage and finish his checks but needs to play the right way more consistently if he wants to be trusted enough to go out there and make his skill plays). It’s hard to find centers with his skill and offensive instincts/intuition in the second round, though, for example, and he remains a talent. But he’s now going to have to continue to prove himself.”
“Entering the season, Ryabkin was consistently ranked in the top 5-10 on many preseason draft lists. He set records in Russia’s junior league, the MHL, and produced better than Matvei Michkov and Ivan Demidov at the same age. Since then, Ryabkin has played in three different Russian leagues with minimal success (and playing time) before signing with Muskegon of the USHL. He’s produced three goals in four games, but has already been suspended three games after a dirty slew foot incident. Last season, when he was at his best, Ryabkin looked like a very physical, point producing C prospect. That’s his ultimate upside, but the likelihood of him reaching that has plummeted the last four months.”
Jordan Harris (January 2025), Dobber Prospects
“Ryabkin is a wild card to keep an eye on in the first round. It’s a realistic thought that a team will be more aggressive and call his name before this slot. My concerns regarding Ryabkin’s ability to create offence, and score goals, is minimal. What I’m more concerned about is his fitness – which is a choice – and the overall pace he plays the game. When the game is more predictable, and in control for his team, Ryabkin’s skill definitely shines on the power play. It’s undeniable that he’s coming into his own at the USHL level, however, and his stats don’t lie. Ryabkin has 7G-4A in his most recent 10-game segment.”
“Game No. 1 of the playoffs and Ryabkin had a solid showing. The biggest change over his time in the USHL has been increased pace and engagement off-puck. Now, he’s throwing hits to win possession, retrieving loose pucks, and breaking up the occasional play defensively. One big hit started a passing play and a rebound, which he promptly fired back on net. Though he’s not much of a puck carrier here, he makes quick passes off the wall, shoots a lot, and supports plays effectively now. He did have a couple of poor decisions here, as well as many missed passes in transition and offensively. The playmaking still hasn’t fully clicked at this level with most of his slot passes either to no one in particular or put his teammate in a bad spot. But, he’s making quicker decisions in transition and making the occasional play off the wall. The potential for a mid-six power forward remains, but he’s much more of a project than many anticipated. Skating, pace, and details all have to improve significantly. There are special elements, but he’s more of a mid-to-late second-rounder for me.”
Mitchell Brown, Elite Prospects April 14th Game Report
The next player to enter the poll is William Moore, a sturdy two-way center from the USNTDP.
“Moore was a tough evaluation this season. He was arguably the most talented player on this year’s U.S. NTDP. He has a lot of tools that will appeal to NHL teams as a big forward whose played some center, skates well, has good puck skills and can make creative plays with the puck. I wouldn’t describe him as a top-tier playmaker, but he sees the ice well enough. Moore’s compete has come into question at times this season and he’s certainly inconsistent but he has the ability to be effective down low, and can kill penalties. There’s nothing that truly stands out about his game, but the sum of the parts could lead to him being a useful middle six wing.”
