Kicking off the second round of the BSH Community Draft Board is Jack Nesbitt, who slots in at No. 33 overall in our rankings. Nesbitt, a center who plays for the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires, is a cerebral all-situations forward that became known for having a decent dose of “mean” to his game without sacrificing any effectiveness and skill on the ice.
Nesbitt’s stock was really high early in this draft cycle, where he was projected to go closer to the middle of the first round rather than the end. Now, especially after a meddling World Juniors and not exceptional scoring numbers at the OHL level (64 points in 65 games), Nesbitt’s stock has cratered a bit to the end of the first to early second round range. There’s a lot to like with Nesbitt still, so let’s get into the positives and negatives of a potential Jack Nesbitt pick.
Pre-draft rankings
No. 32 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
No. 42 by Elite Prospects
No. 23 by TSN (Bob McKenzie)
No. 31 by Daily Faceoff
Bio
DOB: January 12, 2007
Birthplace: Sarnia, Ontario, Canada
Position: Center
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 183 lbs
Shoots: Left
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Nesbitt reminds us a little bit of another player in the range of this draft – center Jack Murtagh (No. 30 on our list) – in that there isn’t anything he does especially well or especially poorly. He’s one of the players in this range that if you look at his game and his tools, you have a reasonable degree of confidence that the floor of Nesbitt is at least at the level of an NHLer. He’s just probably not going to wow you, but his game is already kinda tailored for a bottom six NHL playing style.
In our watchings of Nesbitt, some of the best attributes about the player is his ability to be very engaged in all three zones. Defensively and through the neutral zone, Nesbitt is a menace, leveraging his physicality as well as almost anyone in this draft class. Combining that with a knack for strong positioning on the defensive end, scouts have felt reasonably comfortable in projecting Nesbitt as a bottom-sixer.
A perfect example of this is in the clip below, where Nesbitt (No. 71) continually pressures a rushing forward through the neutral zone, picks his pocket, and quickly turns back into the offensive zone. Then, Nesbitt stickhandles into a bit of pressure, but instead of giving up on the play, smartly anticipates a pass up the boards and forces another turnover. Nesbitt then sets up his teammate, having done all the dirty work for the Windsor goal to develop. It’s against weak junior defense and competition, but Nesbitt’s smarts and anticipation are theoretically fairly translatable to the NHL.
Offensively, a lot of Nesbitt’s goals and chance-creation comes from being physical in and around the net. At 6’4”, 183 pounds, Nesbitt is able to use his body effectively against weaker competition to create offense. That’s also a fairly small 6’4” frame, so there’s lots of room for Nesbitt to add 15-20 pounds under an NHL development regimen. Nesbitt has already been able to turn his game into a power forward type at times, so if he continues to add muscle and figures out his skating? Maybe there’s more offense there than most projections anticipate for the player right now.
What’s not to like?
The biggest problem with Nesbitt is his skating, which is really slow in most ways you can think about it. There’s zero separation speed, he starts off slow and ends slow, and there’s not a lot of examples of Nesbitt being able to beat players and create offense via his legs. It’s probably not even passable at the NHL level right now, and he doesn’t have the high-end skill to compensate for truly below average skating. That’s going to be a major red flag for a lot of teams, and he’s going to need to be in the right developmental situation in order for a team to maximize his potential.
Another thing with Nesbitt? His junior scoring was…mediocre at best. 64 points in 65 OHL games is a pretty low number, and there are plenty of other junior forwards who have bottom-six potential that have outpaced that scoring total. It’s almost always concerning when a player isn’t really lighting up the scoresheet at the junior level, and it would be very reasonable to believe that there won’t be much offense at all with Nesbitt in the pros. If you prefer a swing pick in your draft selections, you probably are not going to be a big fan of Nesbitt.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
This would be an intriguing fit, as the Flyers have not exactly shown an aversion to drafting below-average skaters in their draft year. The most recent and best example is Tyson Foerster, who’s biggest knock was his awkward skating stride during his draft year. The Flyers could always use centers in the pipeline, and along the same lines as the logic of a Jack Murtagh pick – there’s always room in the system for a 6-foot-4, defensively-reliable centerman. We’ll see, but the Flyers taking a bet on improving Nesbitt’s skating wouldn’t be an admonishable choice.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
Nesbitt is definitely a possible pick for the Flyers at No. 32, or with the early second round picks. No. 22 feels slightly too high for him, but all the picks after that in the second round are certainly in play for Nesbitt to become a Flyer.
What scouts are saying
“During his second OHL season, Nesbitt has taken a significant leap forward in his development and is regularly deployed on Windsor’s top power-play unit and penalty kill. He is a highly effective net-front presence, tough to contain, and positions himself around the net to jar pucks loose and capitalize on rebounds. Defensively, Nesbitt demonstrates a strong understanding of positioning and uses his long reach to disrupt plays and transition the puck up ice. He will need to improve his first-step acceleration and refine his puck management skills to further elevate his game.”
“Nesbitt trended up significantly this season. He became an important player on a deep Windsor team. Nesbitt is a very skilled center with great size. He can beat players one-on-one at a high rate off the rush and shows a lot of offensive creativity inside the offensive zone. He’s smart and makes a lot of intelligent plays, showing the vision to score in the NHL. He’s a big man who plays heavy and is a reliable 200-foot player. He’s a player that Windsor kept playing more as the season went on and leaned on during important games. His skating stride is heavy, though, and he will struggle to get by NHL defensemen with his foot speed. The hope is that the rest of his game is so good he it won’t be a major issue. He has top-six forward potential and could be a second-line center.”
“It’s not very difficult at all to envision Jack Nesbitt developing into a bottom-six NHL Center later on in his career. The immediate appeal to him when watching him play is his combination of size and skating. Nesbitt stands in at 6’4 with quality skating mechanics and more quickness in his turns and crossovers than you typically see in a player his size (although his foot speed is a bit lacking). Offensively, Nesbitt plays a pretty straight forward game. He is constantly looking to get involved in puck battles and hunts to retrieve every puck he can in the offensive zone, directing every puck he can get either to a teammate nearby or directly to the net. He’s got a quality shot and much better hands than you might expect, occasionally pulling off high skill passes while under pressure. He’s also a quite defensively responsible player, seldom to never finding himself out of position in the defensive zone and using his long reach to poke pucks out of reach of the opposition. His lack of foot speed, mediocre production and lack of dynamic offensive elements in his game mean it’s hard to imagine him playing in a top-6 NHL role in the future, but there’s enough to like there to easily envision him as a future 3C or 4C.”
The next entry into our poll is Ryker Lee, an energetic right winger from the USHL’s Madison Capitols.
“Not much is needed to explain Ryker Lee. The first few games I saw this season, I simply did not see a high end prospect there, but he looks more and more comfortable and confident in the USHL as the year has worn on with point production that has just gotten better and better. He’s one of those high excitement players on the wing that is a pretty simple projection to being a very, very talented college scorer with potential NHL upside. He needs to improve his shot selection, but his skill level and work rate are impressive to say the least. He’s a great forechecker, with excellent offensive instincts, feeding teammates passes in dangerous areas with ease and driving a ton of offense for his team. He has the work rate, skill, creativity and finishing ability to be an offensive leaning finisher if he develops well, and in this range of the draft if you want to swing for a bit more upside and offense, he’s a great option with less questionable downsides. He’s just plain fun, and a very exciting player and in this tier, he’s a reasonable addition in a sea of safer, simpler profiles.”
