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2025 Playoffs: BSH predicts Round 1

Diving in with our predictions for the first round matchups of the 2025 NHL playoffs.

May 5, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Chris Tanev (3) and center Joe Pavelski (16) and Vegas Golden Knights right wing Mark Stone (61) and right wing Jonathan Marchessault (81) battle for control of the puck in the Stars zone during the third period in game seven of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators

Jason M:  I don’t think this is going to be a cakewalk but might not be as bloodthirsty as the Leafs/Sens playoff tilts 20 years ago or thereabouts. The hype surrounding Toronto was only mildly nauseating this year, so they might have a chance. As well, Ottawa is not Tampa nor Boston. As for Ottawa, they’re happy to be there but I don’t expect them to get over this first round hump. Toronto in six.

Joe D: This feels like a series that is either going to be a Toronto sweep, or the Ottawa Senators in seven. We all know the Leafs story: stars disappear in the playoffs, depth isn’t there, goaltending lets them down. We’ll see how the Core Four manage, but the depth is better, and Anthony Stolarz has been good when healthy–but are he and Joseph Woll enough to carry the team? I have my doubts, and the Sens have Linus Ullmark, who’s the kind of goalie who can steal a series. I expect Toronto to win this one, but for chaos purposes, I’m going Senators in seven.

Ryan Q: It’s the same old song and dance with the Leafs. They look like a juggernaut every year. And every year, they get ousted in the first round. It’s not even sad anymore. Now it’s just straight up funny. This year feels a bit different, though. Could I perhaps be naive for thinking this way? You bet. But I’ll go out on a limb and give the Leafs the edge in this series. It certainly won’t be easy. The Senators are a good, fun team, and right in the nick of time, they’re getting back one of the better players (and one of the best pests) in hockey in Brady Tkachuk. As cool as it would be to see Tkachuk and former Flyer Claude Giroux advance, I think Toronto will come out swinging. Both literally and figuratively. This’ll be an awesome series. Leafs in seven.

Kyle: I’d love to see Giroux compete for another Cup, but I think it’s more likely that we see Laughton do it this year. Toronto is more talented, their goalies are performing better, and I don’t see Berube letting his team fold in Round 1. Leafs in 6.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers

Jason M: Tampa’s goal differential has been quite stellar this year. And they are getting the biggest test at their optimal health. Of course Florida is also relatively healthy. I’m not sure if Tampa has that extra gear that can take out the defending Cup champions. But Florida have about 290 games played since the start of 2023-24, which is a lot of mileage. Probably one of the better first round series, easily the best of the East. Panthers in seven.

Joe D: First we get the Battle of Ontario, and now the Battle of Florida–what fun! This series should be appointment viewing, and may end up more enthralling than the Stars/Avs series out West. The Panthers have played a lot of hockey the past three seasons, their stars have been in various states of health the last few months, and Bobrovsky still feels like a wildcard despite his recent post-season success. Tampa, meanwhile, has had stretches where they look unstoppable, and streaks where they look pedestrian; I think they catch Lightning in a bottle and get this series done in six on the back of Vasilevsky looking Vezina-caliber and Kucherov having another season that should have him in the MVP conversation.

Ryan Q: I thought this would be the year the Lightning took a major step back and possibly even missed out on the playoffs. Clearly, however, I am an imbecile. The Lightning are the same old powerhouse we’ve become so accustomed to over the last decade or so. The Panthers are also a phenomenal squad, and the battle for Florida is sure to be something of a bloodbath. But I’m choosing not to bet against the Lightning again. That didn’t bode well for me in the past. Lightning in six.

Kyle: Feels like Tampa has the juice this year, and Florida’s vibe doesn’t feel like back-to-back contenders. That said, it should be a battle but ultimately I’ve got Tampa in 7.

Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens

Jason M: Washington won their cup when the guy who scored all the goals was given the title of the guy who scored the most goals. Their Stanley Cup. Congratulations. I think Washington is the biggest fraud of the East. And I look for Montreal to pull the upset, regardless of the regular season points gap between the two teams. Washington is old. Montreal is not. Montreal in six. 

Joe D: I haven’t believed in the Capitals all year, and I might believe in the Habs even less. Good for Montreal fans to see their team in the playoffs again, but this might be one of the more boring round one matchups. Caps in five, because I think they can string together at least a few quality games in a way Montreal doesn’t seem capable of.

Ryan Q: The Capitals were a force throughout the regular season, and for good reason. Not only were they looking to reclaim their status as the overlords of the Metro, but they were also chasing down the season-long objective of helping Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record. Well, Ovechkin broke the record, and now the Caps are aiming to get him his second Stanley Cup. Unfortunately, they’re running into a really young, really fun Canadiens team that just added one of the best young talents in hockey in Ivan Demidov. There’s a phenomenal energy surrounding the Habs now, and I’m of the opinion that they could surprise some people with a strong showing in the first round. Habs in six.

Kyle: Washington hasn’t been playing great down the stretch, while the Habs have been. That said, Washington’s got 43 Regulation Wins to Montreal’s 30. The Habs don’t have the playoff experience and I don’t think they have enough juice to pull off an upset. Caps in 5.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils

Jason M: This should be a nifty series. I don’t give New Jersey much of a chance. The Devils are probably happy to be in the dance after what transpired last season. The Canes, although perhaps still smarting a bit from the Rantanen stint and subsequent trade, should have little problem putting the Devils away. Carolina in five.

Joe D: Yawn. The Devils are beset by injuries and Markstrom has been far more unsteady than expected, and the Canes are built for this sort of matchup. New Jersey gets a win because one of Andersen or Kochetkov lays an egg, but Carolina should wrap this up in five and conserve their energy for the next couple rounds.

Ryan Q: The Hurricanes haven’t had the most success in the postseason lately, even despite their regular-season excellence. But the Devils are also completely depleted. They’ll be missing Jack Hughes for the entire postseason, and while Dougie Hamilton is set to make his return, is he fully himself after missing 18 games with a lower-body injury? I’m skeptical. Hurricanes in four.

Kyle: NJ is wounded and limped through a lot of the season. No chance for them. Canes in 4.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues

Jason M: Holy hell the West is stacked! Winnipeg comes in as one of the best in the league, with a great goaltender and plenty of size, depth and scoring touch. They are built for the post-season. The Blues? Well they were red hot down the stretch to get in. The Jets will have to endure a heavy, physical and possibly chippy series with St. Louis but I don’t see how (outside of Hellebuyck’s announcing his retirement this weekend) Winnipeg doesn’t win this series. Winnipeg in five.

Joe D: The Jets are playing good hockey, and have shown they are more than Connor Hellebuyck and friends, winning the President’s Trophy for the first time in franchise history. In a seven-game series, though? I’m not as convinced. St. Louis was scorching hot down the stretch and has some “we’ve done this before, we’ll do it again” energy that could prove a handful for Winnipeg, but I still expect the Jets to take care of business in five.

Ryan Q: The Jets are another team that routinely disappoints in the postseason. They were ousted in the first round in each of the last two seasons despite Connor Hellebuyck’s best efforts, so hockey fans aren’t wrong for having limited confidence in their ability to get over the hump. The Blues, meanwhile, are entering the playoffs hot. An incredible 12-game winning streak helped them clinch a playoff spot just as the regular season was winding down. Many folks are probably high on St. Louis, but I’m not one of those people. And I’m also not ready to write off Winnipeg. This is not the same Jets team we’ve seen in years past, and I’m buying in. Jets in five.

Kyle: I’m never that confident in the Jets in the playoffs, and for as great as they’ve been this season, I kinda feel the same this year. The Blues are on a crazy hot streak down the stretch, so I think this series will be a real back-and-forth battle. That said, I think Winnipeg locks it down. Jets in 7.

Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche


Jason M: War. War. War. War. This will be a war. Neither team is fond of each other and know they have to go through an extremely difficult opponent to get the job done. Landeskog’s return could be a difference maker. And to see Rantanen in a Dallas uniform playing against his former team will be high drama. It will go the distance and it will be a coin flip. My bet is the Stars in seven in triple overtime.

Joe D: Everyone’s expecting the playoff series of the decade with this one–which means it’ll be a sweep. The X-factor is the health of Miro Heiskanen, and if Jake Oettinger limping into the playoffs was on the team in front of him, or his own fatigue. Oettinger at his best can steal a series, so if he’s impenetrable, this is Dallas’s to lose. Colorado, meanwhile, has a couple of the best players in the league and the depth to support them, even if Mackenzie Blackwood’s playoff bonafides are in question. It’s close, but I think I have to go Dallas in six, though I’ll add that whichever team emerges from this series ends up in the Stanley Cup Final.

Ryan Q: Two months ago, I would’ve considered this one of the more exciting series of the playoffs. Now, I’m not as certain. In fact, I’m doubtful it’ll even be all that entertaining. The Stars have struggled mightily to end the regular season, and the Avs are, well, the Avs. It’s probably smart to bet on the team with Nathan MacKinnon. Avalanche in six.

Kyle: Gotta agree with Quigs here- I don’t think this series will be nearly as competitive/interesting as a lot of people think. The media will hype up the Rantanen of it all, but Dallas is missing Heiskanen and they’re going into the playoffs on a 7 game losing streak. Colorado feels very dangerous this year, and the team is going to be fired up by the return of Gabriel Landeskog. Avs in 6.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild

Jason M: Maybe the sleeper series of the first round. Nobody is paying much attention to what these teams did all season. The Wild is happy to get in as Marc-Andre Fleury’s swan song will go a few more games. Vegas, as is often the case, is deep and should make Minnesota rather easy prey. Vegas in five.

Joe D: I feel for the Wild fans who have to stay up for a 10 p.m. start time–that’s just ridiculous. Thankfully, they won’t have to do so too many times as the Golden Knights are gonna win this one in five. Sorry, Minnesota: you’re still just first round fodder–though next year looks promising with all that cap space opening up to you!

Ryan Q: To channel my inner Dennis Green, the Wild are what we think they are. They’re a decent enough team, but not good enough to win a playoff series. Maybe that’ll change one day. But I have absolutely no confidence in them, even if they do have Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back. Plus, Vegas is Vegas. Don’t overthink this. Vegas in five.

Kyle: Not at all interested in this one (See: Minnesota). Vegas in 5.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers

Jason M: As much as Connor McDavid’s “right f–king now!” tantrum during the Cup finals last season showed how much he wants a ring, the Oilers might not have the horses to support McDavid and Draisatl. The Kings have lost the last three seasons to Edmonton. Beating a team four seasons in a row (unless the team is named Toronto) isn’t an easy feat. Los Angeles is lethal at home and should be able to handle the top two talents in the league. Won’t be easy but Los Angeles gets it done. Los Angeles in six.

Joe D: Fourth time’s the charm, right? This is the Kings’ year. They’re playing stout defensive hockey in front of excellent goaltending from Kuemper, Quinton Byfield’s elevating his game, Flyers legend Andrei Kuzmenko’s been a fantastic addition, and they’ve got the players to matchup against McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers, meanwhile, are missing Mattias Ekholm–and Draisaitl and McDavid don’t seem 100-percent, despite McDavid’s denial that the team is the “walking wounded.” Stuart Skinner got lucky last year, but there’s no way he takes this team on a run, and Cal Pickard as backup ain’t that guy, either. LA has home ice, so they just need one win in Edmonton; I say the Kings are crowned victors in five.

Ryan Q: I’m expecting this series to be one of the best of the postseason. The Kings have an excellent blend of young talent and veteran savvy. The Oilers? They have the two best hockey players on the planet. It’s tough to bet against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but I’m doing exactly that. The Oilers’ goaltending is suspect at best, and their depth is far from ideal. The Kings, meanwhile, are aiming to slay a dragon. And with their depth, I think they can do it. The series is gonna be a marathon, and it’s definitely gonna be rough. Especially after the incident involving Donovan McNabb’s nephew and Quinton Byfield. But as ill-advised as it may be, I’m betting against McDavid and Draisaitl here. Kings in seven.

Kyle: The Oilers just do not have it this year, and I have zero faith in Stuart Skinner. Kings in 6.

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