We’re reaching the home stretch of the first round, and with that, we pause to get acquainted with Brooks Rogowski. A sizable center out of Oshawa of the OHL, Rogowski is a little raw on the offensive side of his game, but between that size he brings, his mobility, and his defensive acumen, there’s enough potential wrapped up in there that he could well push himself into a pick in the 20s.
Pre-draft rankings
Ranked #29 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #57 by Sportsnet (Jason Bukala)
Ranked #21 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
Ranked #31 by Daily Faceoff
Statistics
What’s there to like?
When you talk about Brooks Rogowski, it’s impossible not to begin with his size. Clocking in at 6’7 and 235 pounds at just 17 years old, Rogowski is certainly an imposing figure. He’s well filled into his frame already (but still with some space to further develop physically), and he uses it effectively — he’s strong in the corners, consistent in his ability to win battles and use that sound body positioning to win possession and open up space for his linemates. There’s an eager willingness to engage physically, and he certainly doesn’t shy away from leveling a bit hit when the moment calls for it, and that really adds an extra level of pop to his game.
Of course, there’s more to Rogowski’s profile than just his size. He’s a nicely mobile player who is able to effectively build speed through the neutral zone through the use of his long strides and depth of his stance. He’s really solid on his skates for a player as big as he is — others with this frame can lumber, or else give over to gangliness — and his mobility through the middle of the ice makes him a particular threat.
Rogowski’s checking game is a real standout as well. He’s able to use the strength of his skating to close in on puck carriers quickly, and that long reach comes with a good deal of control, and he’s effective in chipping pucks away and out of danger, flexing an already well-developed defensive awareness that teams want to see from a centerman that they’re targeting in the first round.
“Really impressive athlete,” said one Eastern Conference scout, quoted for the EP Draft Guide, “Is he actually worth a first-round pick? You saw Chicago reach for West last year so that’s probably going to be what it takes to get him. Every team in the league wants a 6-foot-7 right-handed centre that can skate.”
Rogowski’s game isn’t perfect, and there are some legitimate weak points that he’ll need to continue to work on, but there is something prototypical about his complete profile — and the potential for what could be coached out of him in time — to what teams tend to go crazy for, and that makes him a particularly interesting case to follow.
What’s not to like?
In all of this, though, what’s keeping Rogowski in the range of a guy who a team might reach on at the end of the first round rather than one who’s in the legitimate conversation to be taken somewhere in the middle of the round is the limited offensive ceiling he currently possesses. Credit to him, that he seemed to get better as the season went on of flashing some higher-end scoring plays, but those moments were still somewhat fewer and farther between for him. Rogowski’s checking game is certainly well-developed, and he does a lot well to support offense through his work in the corners and on retrievals, but there’s not much dynamic play in what he’s able to do when he has the puck himself, and if that’s coming through quite clearly at just the junior level, it’s hard to see how much more he’ll be able to do at the next levels against more difficult competition.
It’s not a hopeless case, to be sure, but to get Rogowski to the place where he can be more of an impact player on the offensive side of the puck is going to take some serious and targeted developmental work on that side of his game. He’s already taking the patient approach in his own game — returning to the OHL for one more season before heading off to Michigan State — and perhaps some headway can be made along those stops, but it’s going to take some particular work from the team that drafts him to bring out that element of his game as well. It’s not an impossible task, but it’s going to be a project, and there is some risk in there that he doesn’t ever figure it out to the degree that a team might like, so those are some things that a team is going to have to come to terms with if they want to take a shot on him.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Painting in the broadest of strokes, there is a lot in Rogowski’s surface-level profile that we could see intriguing the Flyers. They are still looking to bolster their prospect pipeline at the center position, and Rogowski would help them address that, and he also brings that size that they were clearly feeling that they needed to add into their mix in the last draft, so he does tick some boxes there.
That said, though, the Flyers are beginning to shift how they’re approaching their game at the highest level, and one is left to wonder if Rogowski would be a fit for the game they’re trending towards. That is, they’ve already shown well that they can play a sound defensive game, they have that side more or less locked down, but the next step is to find a way to more consistently generate more offense, and while some of that will certainly run through the system, the personnel they assemble to get that ball rolling will really matter as well. There are a lot of good things about Rogowski’s game, but that limited offensive ceiling may not jive with where the Flyers are trying to get this thing headed. And, even though it will all but certainly be a long time before Rogowski gets into the mix for an NHL job, it’s hard not to feel that here player and team might not be the most well aligned.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
While there’s certainly a chance that another team equally as desperate to load up on centers falls in love with Rogowski and his size profile — and, we recall, based on last year’s broader league trends, teams are putting a premium on size in their drafting ethos — and snatches him up somewhere in the late teens, the safer bet is that he’ll be hanging around a little longer, falling into the Flyers’ range at 21. Will that be the best option available to them at that pick? Time will tell, but he should certainly be in the mix.
What scouts are saying
“I have mixed feelings about Rogowski — an MSU commit who got an “A” rating from NHL Central Scouting in their preliminary players to watch list and then ranked No. 14 on their midseason list of North American skaters and No. 21 on their final list — and I’m not the only one. Some see a 6-foot-7 center with good hands and skating who played big minutes for the Gens as a go-to player this season on both their power play, where he has the dexterity and soft skill to play the net-front and get sticks on tips and rebounds, and their penalty kill. Others see a big player who doesn’t involve himself or impose himself nearly enough for their liking and are turned off by his lack of intensity — a concern many also had with Bruins first-rounder Dean Letourneau, who has now figured it out, but Letourneau had even more skill/finesse/athleticism at the same age.
Rogowski does get low into an active base in his stride for his size. He does read and anticipate play well defensively. He will make little plays around the net. I’ve seen him play a lot in the OHL and internationally (including most recently at U18s, where he was just OK but also apparently dealing with a wrist injury), and I fit more into the latter camp, though the tools obviously make him interesting. We’re also exiting out of a couple of drafts where big OHLers Kieron Walton and Ilya Protas have become top prospects for their organizations, though I’m very confident Rogowski is more in the Walton tier if things progress than the Protas tier. Development will be key for Rogowski, and he’ll be in good hands at Michigan State, which helps. He’s a fine-to-good prospect. I just don’t think he’s a top-40 one.”
-Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
“I’ve really liked my viewings of Rogowski, one of the best “big dudes” in the draft this year. At 6-foot-7, he’s obviously got size. But I also appreciated how well he hustled at both ends, chasing pucks and breaking up plays. He’s a smart forward who uses his big frame to win battles, but he also has a good shot and isn’t afraid to launch it from anywhere in an attempt to surprise the goaltender. Rogowski won’t be a big-time offensive threat but, as a supporting player, he has a ton of tools to make himself useful.”
-Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff
Our next addition to the poll is another interesting winger out of the NTDP, the physical, high-energy Casey Mutryn.
“Mutryn comes in right around where he was in December, largely because he’s one of the easiest players to project in this range. He’s pure energy and beef, and I love it. I am sacrificing some of my principles a bit with Mutryn this high because many of his data points are just plain not good, or at least not exemplary. He needs to be more physically engaged and make better reads in the defensive zone, he needs to get more aggressive through the neutral zone defensively, and he needs to power his way to the net on his puck touches more, but my god if there’s a Stanley Cup Playoff “will your way to winning the game” style of player in this class, it’s Mutryn. He’s throwing his constantly, causing turnovers in the offensive zone all the time, generating slot passes on 21% of his total pass attempts, and his game is all about capturing the best parts and seeing them more often. He got pulverized in so many metrics, but you see what he does on the ice and how he does it, and you just can’t help but be drawn to what could be possible. He isn’t some troglodyte flying around recklessly killing everyone, as there is an amount of skill and puck protection that needs to be more evident. People are looking for the next Tom Wilson, and it took time for him to sort out his offensive game, but once it clicked, it really clicked, and Mutryn might be on a similar path if all goes well. Luckily for him, Boston College looks to be a great landing spot for a big, heavy presence with flashes of finesse as names like Hemming and Letourneau have been making great gains in the same system.”
–Will Scouch, scouching.ca
