As we hit the seven spot on this ranking, we’re shifting back to the NCAA to talk about a name that might already be familiar to some, in centerman Tynan Lawrence.
Flyers prospect watchers might already have some exposure to Lawrence, as he made the midseason jump from Muskegon of the USHL to Boston University, spending the second half of the season as a teammate to Owen McLaughlin and Jack Murtagh. A high-motor center, Lawrence brings a well developed utility style game, bringing speed and tenacity up the middle and enough puck skill to round out a really intriguing complete game.
His moderate production at the college level may have cooled some viewers on him, but that complete package of his game leaves a lot to be excited about.
Pre-draft rankings
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (EU Skaters)
Ranked #14 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #11 by Daily Faceoff
Ranked #6 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
Ranked #10 by Sportsnet (Jason Bukala)
Ranked #6 by FloHockey (Chris Peters)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
It’s been a bit of a wild season for Lawrence, as he began in the USHL, building on a very solid showing in his Draft-1 season, but ultimately saw that stint unfold as a short one, as he bet on himself and made the jump to the NCAA with Boston University midseason. And while the production didn’t immediately explode for him in the way that some pundits might have hoped or expected — though, it was understandable that it didn’t, given the steepness in the jump between levels and the other struggles that the Terriers in general were dealing with on an ongoing basis throughout that very challenging season — there’s still a lot to like about his game, and getting that early jump on the college game will only make him better for it.
Lawrence is, above all, a play driver. His effort level is through the roof and his game is made so effective by his constant push to do whatever he can to push play in the right direction. He is, immediately, a very cerebral player, and that forms the most solid foundation of his game. There’s a great vision with which he sees the ice, and that’s a real aid to him when he has possession of the puck and is looking to either move it up-ice, or maneuver with it in the offensive zone, but his off-puck anticipation is also truly high-level, and that makes him especially effective on top of all else as a forechecker. He’s consistent in his ability to force turnovers, making opponents pay for mistakes, making himself a menace to play against.
What also immediately stands out about his game is that he plays with undeniable pace — his speed is good in isolation, but combining it with that cerebral quality, as well as a lack of panic with the puck, makes him very strong as a puck-mover, as a force in transition. He’s shifty enough to cross up defenders with some consistency, and just seems to draw coverage to himself with how hard he’s always working, creating space elsewhere for his teammates to work with.
What’s more, it’s nice to see that his puck-skill isn’t held back by the speed at which he plays, and he’s able to cradle pucks easily to get a shot off or thread a pass through a lane to hit a teammate in stride while moving at top speed. He generally prefers to be the primary puck carrier on a rush, but he’s still quite good on a give-and-go when it comes down to it. On top of that, his puck protection is good, whether deploying good body positioning or taking a good angle, or, even more critically, knowing when he can chip the puck away and win the race back to it to ease up the pressure a bit.
For his individual offense, he’s largely quite consistent in his focus on attacking the net and getting interior for his chances, and even if he wasn’t converting at a high rate immediately with BU, the right mindset is there. He can still get a little perimeter with his offense at times, kind of just shooting from wherever, but we saw more patience coming into play in his game by the time the end of the NCAA season came around, which was a positive. He’s not an elite shooter by any means, but the high effort can get him some good chances to help make up for that.
All in all, while it’s not all completely perfect — and what player is at this age and level — it’s really remarkable how cohesive Lawrence’s game is already, and that makes him a particularly attractive package at the top of this draft class.
And for the Flyers in particular, to wrap this up, this is a prospect that they’ll be very familiar with already, as they will have gotten a number of viewings of him while they were checking in with their trio of prospects who played at least parts of this past season with the Terriers, and that familiarity might help to give him a bit of a boost on their board.
What’s not to like?
We talked already about that high pace of play that he brings, and while that’s by and large a positive attribute within his game, there are still some moments when it works against him. There are times when going high octane isn’t the right play, and he would be better served slowing things down and taking the time to maneuver a bit more, and that’s something he can struggle with. Now, it’s always easier the ramp down pace than it is to try to force it into a player’s game, so that’s certainly a negative that a coach with take and work with, but it’s still worth acknowledging that he is going to require some coaching in this area.
There was also an acknowledgment earlier that his game didn’t quite pop off at the college level in the way he might have hoped, and this came down to a couple of areas. For one, his physical development had him behind the curve a bit against some of these players who have been working on their intensive training regimens throughout a whole college season, and even if he was approaching all situations with a high effort level, there were times when he was just flat out beat by stronger players. It’s something to work on, but it’s hard to fault him too much for that, given that he was effectively jumping on a moving train with the Terriers in the middle of the season.
But beyond that, his offensive game is still largely an area of his game in development, and that middling production is what gets him dinged in some of these rankings. It’s true that some of it was well beyond his control — you can make a good setup but if your teammates aren’t converting on those chances, that’s not on you, and there was a fair bit of that at work this season — but there remain parts of his own game that need tinkering with. The big thing with him is consistency — he has the tools to be an effective playmaker, in finding his teammates with passes in the middle of the ice, but we just need to see more of it. He got better as the season went on, and that’s good news, but it remains a bit of a work in progress.
How would he fit the Flyers’ system?
While things aren’t looking quite so dire for them as they were around this time a year ago, the Flyers are still in need of shoring up their center position throughout the pipeline, and adding a player like Lawrence would certainly help them do that.
But as for the actual style of his play, there’s a lot to like about his potential to fit in with what the Flyers are building. One of the bigger needs for them, at present, is a bit more speed up the middle, and while the team could certainly use it — and will put in some work to address it — before the time at which Lawrence is ready to graduate to the NHL on a full time basis, having that locked into the pipeline would make their jobs a bit easier in the shorter term. And while that playmaking game is still a little raw, the potential is there for him to be an effective center to support and feed some of these more dynamic shooters that they have on the wings.
What’s more, to be a bit reductive, there’s a lot that Lawrence brings that’s similar to Jett Luchanko’s most exciting game elements, in his pace, his forechecking ability, his defensive awareness, but he also brings a bit more in the way of offensive potential, and that should make for a package that the Flyers would be enticed by.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
There are some pundits who are lesser fans of Lawrence’s game, and would have him going closer to the middle of the first round — we noted that 14th place ranking on the Elite Prospects ranking at the top, but Craig Button of TSN has him all the way down at 21 on his ranking — and those conservative estimates would put him in the range where the Flyers could reasonably move up to grab him, if not get him at 21st outright. That said, the surer bet is that he goes inside of the top-10, and that’s much more likely to be outside of the Flyers’ reach.
What scouts are saying
“Lawrence has a natural release, getting pucks off his stick quickly after an intentional move to the inside or a pass into his catch-and-release (though he can overhandle it at times). He’s a good, strong skater who plays with pace and can make plays off the rush as well as inside the offensive zone. He plays pucks into space and under sticks a ton and wants to take the play to the slot. He moves into the middle of the ice and stays around the action. He works his tail off, off the puck to track and is committed to playing defense and winning races and battles. He has quick hands and feel for the game offensively. He protects it well out wide to his body and can drive (though, again, he had a tougher time getting to the inside against NCAA players). He plays the right way, is smart, supports pucks and teammates well, has good instincts on both sides of the puck, and drives play as a center with pro attributes in a lot of areas. He doesn’t cheat for offense and carries a lot of pucks out of the defensive zone. There are questions about his ultimate offense, though, and while he’s skilled, he’s not dynamic as a pure shooter or passer and can tunnel vision at times. He’s a well-rounded, competitive and complete two-way player, plus he plays a premium position and has the intangibles you look for, but he looks like a future 2C your coach loves more than a true No. 1.”
–Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
“Five players under the age of 18 are playing in the NCAA this season. Just 24 other players in the last 25 years have done the same. Younger players are playing tougher and more developed competition which I think is a great shift and we’ll likely only see more of it. For me, I see Lawrence’s journey from domination of the USHL to perceived NCAA struggles as a massive benefit. He’s getting ahead of his development curve, and even when you look at the data, his play with Boston University has by and large been outstanding. Lawrence is an elite transition driver with a speed and skill combination unlike arguably anyone in the class, huge offensive creation numbers on a team that struggled to finish chances he creates, a very strong defensive presence at both ends of the ice, improving shot selection skill, and all-in-all, just playing like arguably the most purely competitive team-driver in the entire class… A natural centre with a style of play at the position that perfectly lines up with my philosophy of the position, Lawrence is a gamer, and in my opinion based on his last few games I’ve seen this year, he’s much closer to McKenna and Stenberg than he is to the tier behind these players.”
–Will Scouch, scouching.ca
Next up, we welcome Ethan Belchetz to the poll!
“Belchetz is massive at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, while having a high skill level and hands of a smaller forward. He plays a heavy game and uses his big frame to win battles and dislodge pucks from opponents. He’s great around the net, showing the skill to create in tight and has a shot that can finish from range. His playmaking and skating are fine, but they aren’t a selling point of his game. He projects as a top-six winger that teams will love to have in the playoffs.”
–Corey Pronman, the Athletic
