Philadelphia has been at the center of the sports world for most of the summer. Philadelphia Stadium hosted several World Cup games to kick things off, and the MLB All-Star Game and Home Run Derby are at Citizens Bank Park this week.
Add in the 76ers trading for Jaylen Brown and the Flyers’ offer sheet to Leo Carlsson, and there has been no shortage of things to talk about in Philadelphia over the last several weeks.
Danny Briere took a big swing with the Carlsson offer sheet that has given the young center the highest average annual value (AAV) to a player in NHL history. Only it’ll be paid out by the Ducks, not the Flyers.
Besides that, it’s been a quieter offseason for the Flyers’ standards when you consider what Briere did in past summers.
That’s not to say that it’s been a huge disappointment. Solidifying the goaltender position with the trade for Joseph Woll and adding some forward depth with Noel Acciari to replace Garnet Hathaway should raise the Flyers’ floor. They are still looking for that ceiling-raising swing, though.
So, with the Home Run Derby just across the street from Xfinity Mobile Arena tonight, let’s take a look at three big swings Briere and the Flyers could still make this offseason.
Flyers could sign Adam Fantilli to offer sheet
Even while we were waiting out the seven days to see if the Ducks would match the Carlsson offer sheet, some wondered whether the Flyers could pivot to Adam Fantilli if Anaheim matched. It made sense: Carlsson and Fantilli were selected with back-to-back picks atop the 2023 NHL Draft, and have had similar enough career trajectories thus far.
Fantilli is not arbitration-eligible, so he’s the only player left out there who can be tendered an offer sheet by another team. His current team, the Columbus Blue Jackets, has $23.2 million in cap space, per PuckPedia, with Fantilli, Cole Sillinger, and Jet Greaves as restricted free agents still needing contracts.
As with the Ducks, the assumption is that the Blue Jackets would match any offer sheet that Fantilli signed. But the Flyers have shown that they’re willing to go above and beyond for a young center, although Fantilli may be a notch below Carlsson.
Carlsson has 141 points in 201 career games, including 67 points in 70 games last season. Fantilli only had 59 points in the full 82 games last season, bringing his career total to 140 points in 213 games.
The Ducks center did gain some playoff experience this year, though, putting up 11 points in 12 games, and Carlsson has a slightly better two-way game than Fantilli.
Fantilli probably wouldn’t be worth the $18 million that Carlsson signed for. AFP Analytics and Evolving-Hockey both project a maximum eight-year contract with an AAV just over $10 million for Fantilli. The Flyers would certainly have to overshoot that if they want the Jackets to let Fantilli walk.
Any contract with an AAV above $11,939,167 is in the top compensation tier for offer sheets, meaning that the Flyers (or any team) would have to give up the four first-round picks we saw with Carlsson. Up to $11.9 million is two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick. That’s more like it to get a guy like Fantilli rather than Carlsson, but it’d also make it that much easier for the Jackets to match.
Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale have a week until their arbitration dates, which also throws a wrench into things. But if you can get Fantilli, you make it work.
Why would Fantilli want to come to Philadelphia? Well, Zach Werenski has already asked out, although he retracted that. If the Blue Jackets miss the playoffs again, Werenski could be back in that same position next summer. Not to mention the fact that Kirill Marchenko may also want out — and who could blame him?
If Fantilli does sign long-term in Columbus, he could be in a similar position to Dylan Larkin in just a few years as a first-line center that a team failed to build around.
Flyers should make a push for Dylan Larkin
Speaking of Larkin, the Detroit Red Wings center is one of the best players on the trade market right now. His no-movement clause allows him to pick and choose where he wants to go, but the Red Wings have failed to make any progress with the Panthers, Wild, or Golden Knights.
Larkin reportedly recently added the Stars to his list of teams he’d accept a trade to. Detroit apparently asked for Wyatt Johnston in return, which was obviously a non-starter for Dallas. Jason Robertson was talked about as well, but his status as an RFA adds more hurdles to a potential deal.
Steve Yzerman appears to be in no hurry to trade Larkin, and he shouldn’t be. Larkin is exercising his right to block a trade to certain teams, and Yzerman is holding strong on any offers he receives.
But if Briere and the Flyers can put together a trade package that Yzerman would take, perhaps Larkin could be persuaded to accept a trade to Philadelphia. Trevor Zegras could be a great recruiter for that, and Larkin may be swayed by the Flyers showing that they’re ready to make the moves they need to make to become a contender sooner than later.
Larkin has already played out most of his prime on a Detroit team that rebuilt the wrong way. He could be the veteran first-line center that the Flyers need to take the next step, and if the stalemate between GM and captain goes on much longer in Detroit, Larkin could expand his options.
Could Flyers trade for Elias Pettersson?
Last, and least, is trading for Elias Pettersson.
I will start by saying that I don’t think this would happen, nor should the Flyers trade for Pettersson. Who knows what the relationship between Pettersson and his former head coach is, for starters, and it probably wouldn’t even be worth the risk without the Rick Tocchet of it all.
It would be a big swing, though.
Pettersson put up 102 points (39 goals, 63 assists) in the 2022-23 season, and 90 points (34 goals, 55 assists) the following year. Since then, though, he has 96 points (30 goals, 66 assists) in 138 games over the last two seasons.
The talent is there, but Pettersson’s work ethic and attitude have been questioned in the past. That certainly wouldn’t quiet down in Philadelphia.
Then there is the contract. Pettersson is under contract through 2032 at a $11.6 million cap hit. That will look better and better (or less worse and less worse) as the cap rises, but the 27-year-old has probably already played his best hockey.
But if the Canucks truly just want to salary dump Pettersson for a second-round pick and a prospect? Maybe Briere and the Flyers can make that work.
