Mitch Marner was seen screaming “wake the f–k up” during Toronto’s 6-1 loss to Florida in the seventh and deciding game of their playoff series Sunday night. Other clips had him with his head down as the clock ran out on another season that all but the Toronto fan base expected it to go: Not too far into the playoffs. Sure, Kevin Bieksa on Sportsnet’s broadcast lauded Toronto for winning a whole seven games during these playoffs. But in the end, they weren’t good enough to beat the defending Cup champions.
So, with the belief that the core four of William Nylander, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner are breaking up, many believe that Marner is ripe for the picking and will be heading to a new team in free agency this summer. And where better than the Flyers? They are young, they have plenty of draft picks, they are looking to have more cap space, and they have a new head coach in Rick Tocchet. And I haven’t even mentioned a new arena name! Throw in the fact Marner had 102 points this year, a career high, and it should be a match made in heaven, right?
Hell no. No. Nyet. Non. Nein. Nada. As alluring as it might look having Marner on a power play with Michkov, there are a handful of reasons why Marner should not be signed by Danny Briere to an eight-figure contract. Here are some explanations as to the best move on Marner would be to move on. Or far away.
Marner is 28
Mitch Marner just turned 28, he’s in his prime. He is not getting younger. And with the Flyers already with long-term contracts (or parts of deals) to Travis Konecny (28), Sean Couturier (32), Travis Sanheim (29) and even Rasmus Ristolainen (30), adding another one doesn’t really help. Not that I’m comparing Marner’s talent to those I just mentioned. But do you really want a winger who is two or maybe three years from becoming the 60-point to 65-point player he’ll descend into making in the neighborhood of $13 million a season? Some might. I don’t.
A two-year or three-year deal at that? Maybe. But Marner is not going to leave four to five years on the table at this stage in his career. He wants his last big contract and he wants his money. Somebody will give it to him. But now is not the right time, especially when….
Marner is not clutch
Without going deeply into the stats, Marner had two goals and 11 assists this playoff season. But like the other three mentioned, he’s remembered far more for what he hasn’t done. He has played six game sevens over his career. He has yet to score in a deciding game. By comparison, Dallas forward Wyatt Johnson has three and Florida’s Sam Reinhart has three. Both have only played in three game sevens. Max Domi has four goals in five of them. Dallas’s Mikko Rantanen has five goals in four of them. Simply put, Marnerr can’t score in the clutch. This isn’t a one-game sample size, this is six games.
If you are paying a player a hefty sum of money to help you get to where the Flyers and Briere want to go, you need at some point to score when it counts. Yes, getting goals in the regular season to get you to the playoffs are important. But if you can’t deliver when it matters, it doesn’t matter what AAV Marner comes with. It’s not money well spent.
History repeating itself
If anyone recalls what happened in Toronto, let’s turn the clock back before Tavares signed his deal with the Leafs. Toronto entered 2017-18 with a 20-year-old Marner, a 20-year-old Matthews, a 21-year-old Nylander and a 23-year-old Morgan Rielly. They were talented and young! I mean Michkov young! Signing an outsider like Tavares was (regardless of his childhood pajamas) in one sense logical at the time. You would be taking advantage of the entry-level deals some of them were on (Rielly was making $5 million AAV before Tavares signed). So strike while the iron is hot, right?
Wrong. So ridiculously wrong. By putting $77 million in Tavares’ pocket over seven seasons, the idea was the young’uns would fall in line under Tavares and be paid less than that $11 million AAV. But that didn’t happen. In time Marner, Matthews and Nylander would be making more or a fraction under what Tavares commanded. Toss in a pandemic which effectively destroyed any notion of an increase in salary cap and Toronto had roughly 40 per cent of their cap tied up in four players. Great players. Horrid cap management.
If the Flyers decided to sign Marner to a deal somewhere in the $13 million AAV range, remember you have Matvei Michkov who is going to be looking for his payday two seasons from now (or possibly next summer on a long-term deal). Michkov is clearly more important to the future of the Flyers than Marner (or anyone else), so will want to be paid more. This means you could have two of your top players paid $27 million to $28 million, one playing into his prime and one who could be playing on the downside of his career. Even with a cap increase the next few seasons, why piss away that money on Marner knowing possibly at least one (and hopefully one or two more) are producing at a high-level but are waiting in the wings to get paid. Especially when….
Marner is not a center
Mitch Marner has not played center regularly for a long time now. His last real long-term play at that position was when he played in London of the Ontario Hockey League before he was drafted. He is not adept to playing down the middle. He probably doesn’t have the size to play down the middle. So why sign a player (as talented as he is) to play the wing when the obvious dearth the Flyers have is at center? If Briere was ballsy enough to sign Marner and try him in the middle, and it paid off, then by all means I am a fool of the highest order for questioning Philadelphia signing Marner.
Timing is everything, and now isn’t the time
Marner might find a new landing place, free from the pressure cooker that is Toronto and thrive. He could also end up being a crucial piece to a team who is contending for a Stanley Cup. Philadelphia is hoping to turn a corner, looking to add this summer and steer the team towards a playoff spot in 2025-26. So believing Marner could help you get there is reasonable. Also considering only four times between 2000-01 and 2021-22 did a 100-point player one season play for a different team the next (Johnny Gaudreau, Jonathan Huberdeau, Matthew Tkachuk (all in 2021-22) and Jaromir Jagr (2000-01), it makes it far more of a rarity.
However, with still so much in flux with the center position, and particularly the goaltending needing fixing of some sort, now isn’t the time to land Marner on July 1. The notion that you’re not losing roster players or draft picks in acquring him would entice many. But now doesn’t seem the time for such a splash on a player who, again, hasn’t delivered when push came to shove. There’s still plenty of time to take some swings, whether it’s for a center (like Sam Bennett) or in 2026 (where McDavid, Eichel and Necas are all possible UFA….longshots I know).
So, with those reasons mentioned, it’s probably a nifty idea to think what Matvei Michkov and Mitch Marner could do together. But hopefully, at least from this vantage point, it’s just an idea that doesn’t become reality. MMMM? Nah…….I’ll pass.
