With absolutely nothing going on in the hockey world in the heat of summer, it’s the perfect time to take a look into a prospect that’s worth keeping an eye on: The Philadelphia Flyers’ 2024 sixth-rounder from Russia, Ilya Pautov.
There’s not an overwhelming amount of information out there about players in Russia’s junior hockey league, the MHL, and the same goes for 17-year-old Ilya Pautov of Krasnaya Armiya Moskva. One crucial aspect of the MHL, though, is that most high performing players are in the 18- to 20-year-old range, with the exception of quite good to really good 16- to 17-year-olds. In that way, it’s almost like every junior league across the globe — older players have a large advantage unless a player is one of the top prospects in the game.
So, when you look at Pautov’s pure scoring in the MHL ranks from the 2023-24 season, Pautov ranks 39th in points per game league wide at 0.98, but fifth in scoring among Under-18 MHLers. Some of the players in front of him? Projected 2025 lottery pick Ivan Ryabkin, 2024 No. 22 overall Yegor Surin, and Carolina 7th Rounder Andrei Krutov (a team that’s quite good at drafting the skilled undersized player archetype).
| Forward | Age | Goals | Assists | PPG |
| Ivan Ryabkin | 16 | 24 | 34 | 1.318 |
| Yegor Surin | 17 | 23 | 30 | 1.233 |
| Andrei Krutov | 17 | 21 | 29 | 1.22 |
| Danill Anatsky | 17 | 18 | 25 | 1.049 |
| Ilya Pautov | 17 | 15 | 30 | 0.978 |
Again, MHL scoring is hard to quantify in terms of NHL potential, but Pautov’s skills translated well to the scoresheet, in a league of players a bit older than him. It’s not a bad bet to make, especially in the sixth round, that Pautov could take a sizable jump in his age-18 season if this is what he did at 17. It’s what happened with Igor Chernyshov, for example, who put up exactly 1.0 PPG in his age-17 MHL season – and was promptly drafted 33rd overall after taking a leap to 1.273 PPG in his age-18 MHL season. Of course, they aren’t the exact same player in the exact same situation, but it’s within the realm of possibilities that Pautov takes a similar jump, and the Flyers have a real steal on their hands.
Also worth noting, so much of the methodology behind late-round picks comes down to the idea of trusting the organization’s scouting staff. On the July 2 episode of the PHLY Flyers podcast, Charlie O’Connor noted exactly this with the Pautov pick:
“Basically, what Flahr told us after the draft is Kenny Hoodikoff, who is their Russian scout, pounded the table for him. And more or less, he said ‘Get this guy, he’s gonna be a stud.’”
So, without further ado, let’s get into the specifics of Pautov from the limited video and reports that are available on him.
Continue reading…
