It has been eerily quiet around the NHL since the Philadelphia Flyers tendered an offer sheet to Leo Carlsson on Friday.
Pat Verbeek and the Anaheim Ducks are in the second half of the seven-day period they have to decide whether or not to match the five-year, $90 million contract for their 21-year-old restricted free agent. Of course, that contract is heavily front-loaded with signing bonuses to boot, as the Flyers wanted to add even more pressure to Anaheim’s ownership.
While the debate carries on, with some analysts believing the Ducks won’t match the offer sheet and others thinking it’s obvious that they will, there is a third, lesser-talked-about option that could be the solution for the Ducks and Flyers.
Some of our older readers will remember the Flyers signing Chris Gratton to an offer sheet back in 1997. It was not matched by the Lightning so four first-round picks went to Gratton’s original team in the Lightning. Then, Tampa ended up trading those picks back to Philadelphia for a trade package involving Mikael Renberg.
The Flyers are once again set to send four first-round picks for a young center, and they could work out another trade around the offer sheet to land him.
Flyers-Ducks trade could work for both sides
Let’s assume that the Ducks decide that they don’t want to match the offer sheet. We dove into why Anaheim may take that route earlier this week, but in short, they need to pay Cutter Gauthier, would have to dump a few veteran forwards, and they can’t be 100% sure that Carlsson even wants to play there.
Anaheim isn’t really in a position where it would want four first-round picks. The Ducks are in a similar position to the Flyers in terms of their contention window, but Anaheim has a few older players helping to lead the way.
So, if the Ducks don’t match, they’ll likely be looking to trade those picks to acquire roster players that can help them right now. It’s already been floated out there that the Ducks could look to land someone like Dylan Larkin, who has requested a trade from the Detroit Red Wings.
And if Carlsson comes to Philadelphia, the Flyers will need to make some moves in terms of the salary cap to ensure they can pay restricted free agents Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras, both of whom filed for arbitration — which is a good thing –, and to optimize a roster that could be argued has a forward or two too many already.
Verbeek may not be too happy with Briere, but there were also a handful of other teams that wanted to sign Carlsson to an offer sheet. They’ve been able to come together on a few trades before, including one when the Flyers were in a bit of a sticky situation with the aforementioned Gauthier. There should also be some working relationship since last summer’s Zegras for Poehling swap worked out for both sides.
The Flyers and Ducks could potentially work out a trade where Philadelphia sends a few roster players to Anaheim with or instead of all four first-round picks. This would have to come after the Ducks don’t match the offer sheet, as they would be unable to trade him for a year.
There are quite a few roster players on the Flyers who the Ducks should have interest in, especially if they need to replace Carlsson.
Who could Flyers trade for Leo Carlsson?
Owen Tippett and Noah Cates are the two forwards that come to mind.
Tippett’s name has been in trade rumors for what seems like forever, and unfortunately, there’s not really any way to put a stop to that. Even if the Flyers come out and say they won’t trade him, as they did with Matvei Michkov, they’re going to have to trade another winger for a center or defenseman at some point.
The 27-year-old winger is at a cost-controlled $6.2 million cap hit through 2032. He wouldn’t break the bank for a team like the Ducks that may not necessarily want to spend up to the ever-rising cap. Tippett does have a 10-team no-trade list, though, so that could be a factor.
Cates is in a similar position. His $4 million AAV through 2029 is only going to look better as teams realize his defensive acumen. The two-way forward also put up a career high in goals (18), assists (29), and points (47) in 82 games last season.
Poehling already transitioned nicely to life in Southern California. While losing Cates would take away a defensive center, he certainly wouldn’t be a dealbreaker with Carlsson on the other side of the trade.
The Ducks could be interested in those two, but Verbeek may also play hardball and push Briere for a younger player or two. They’d be unlikely to trade Tyson Foerster after signing him to a long-term extension, but Anaheim could look to pry Denver Barkey or Alex Bump. If the Flyers are going to get one of the Ducks’ young stars, why wouldn’t Anaheim push for a young player that they can pay under $1 million for the next two years?
Could Ducks bring Cam York home?
The Flyers also have a few defensemen that the Ducks could look to get back in a trade package, along with some combination of Barkey, Bump, Cates, or Tippett.
Rasmus Ristolainen is the obvious one that Flyers fans would prefer to move. The Ducks just let three of their right defensemen walk in free agency, and Ristolainen could replace the size and physicality that Anaheim is losing in Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba.
Sure, Nick Seeler is an option too, I guess. If the Ducks really want a third-pair defenseman with a cheap contract, by all means.
But the Ducks’ real target on the blue line could be someone like Cam York. York has become a solid second-pair defenseman for the Flyers, but there are still many fans who aren’t convinced he can really be anything more than that — or that a second-pair role is his absolute ceiling.
York is from Anaheim Hills in California and grew up as a Ducks fan. If Verbeek doesn’t match the offer sheet, he’ll likely try to play a Keith Jones card with the “If you don’t want to be a Duck, you’re not going to be a Duck!” angle.
What better way to try to smooth things over than bringing back a hometown kid who is under contract at a nice $5.1 million cap hit through 2030?
What could Flyers-Ducks trade package look like?
A package centered around Cates, Tippett, and York would cost the Ducks $15.35 million in cap space, which is slightly more than Anaheim expected to pay Carlsson. While a franchise forward like Carlsson can’t be replaced, those three players can keep the Ducks in contention, and maybe Anaheim forces the Flyers to send a first-round pick or two, or a younger prospect back as well.
I will acknowledge that the Flyers would then have to do some moves of their own on the backend to get an NHL-caliber blue line, but Simon Benoit having to play every night might be the worst-case scenario there.
But losing two guys like Cates and Tippett in the forward group, even if you also had to throw in Barkey or Bump, would be worth it to land a guy like Carlsson. These players do not become available very often, which is why it’s so crazy that the Ducks let this thing unravel so far.
There are a lot of ifs and a lot of (educated) guesswork in what the Ducks may want if they decide to go the trade route, but there has to be in a situation like this.
Ultimately, a package involving three or four of Barkey, Bump, Cates, Ristolainen, Seeler, Tippett, and York — plus future assets depending on the players — could be good enough for the Ducks to ice a competitive team, pay Gauthier what he thinks he’s worth, and start the post-Carlsson era.
