Breaking down some trends in Rick Tocchet-coached teams

Rick Tocchet\'s coaching record won\'t be mistaken for Scotty Bowman\'s anytime soon. He is marginally over .500 over his three tenures with Tampa Bay, Arizona and Vancouver. But over that time, there are a few things which he seems to have his teams do well. And other things which are still works in progress for the 61-year-old coach. Here then are a handful of trends that have transpired over Tocchet\'s time behind the bench. Some that can result in praise or scorn for Tocchet, depending on the criteria in question.

Winning streaks, losing streaks

No team under Rick Tocchet has gone on a massive tear, meaning he hasn\'t had a team he\'s coached go more than on a six-game winning streak. That was with the Coyotes during 2018-19. So if a team is buried in the standings looking to gain ground, or looking to gain some distance from lesser thans during the season, Tocchet hasn\'t been behind the bench for it. However, there is a first time for everything, right?

In terms of losing streaks, he\'s had his share. In 2008-09 during his first year with Tampa Bay, Tocchet had not one but two nine-game winless streaks over 66 games (he replaced Barry Melrose 16 games into the season). One of those came at the end of the year. In 2017-18, his first year with Arizona, the Coyotes started the season with an 11-game winless streak. Later that year they endured a seven-game winless streak. A handful of five-game winless streaks have also been sprinkled throughout his coaching tenure.

Generally mediocre to slow starts

Tocchet\'s fastest start out of the gate was when Vancouver opened the 2023-24 season going 7-2-1. He also went 6-3-1 to start the 2019-20 season with Arizona. On the other side of the spectrum, the 2017-18 season was bad as mentioned before, where he went 0-9-1 to start the year. And in his first year with the Lightning he was 1-5-4 to start the year. So needless to say, not every team Tocchet has led has come out of the gates on fire.

Generally Tocchet has been around .500 when it comes to the opening 10-game segment. This was the case in 2009-10 with Tampa (4-3-3) and again in 2018-19 with the Coyotes (5-5-0). So although every team is different and Tocchet is entering Philadelphia with a new team, an incredibly red hot start to open 2025-26 would be a welcomed surprise. A start as horrid as he had back in 2017-18 wouldn\'t be great, particularly given the expectations the organization might have on being a playoff contender.

Underlying metrics not great

While people with far more experience than this writer can break down the minutiae of analytics far better, generally the underlying metrics for Tocchet\'s teams outside of his Jack Adams year have been average to below average. In layman\'s terms, Tocchet\'s coaching seasons saw his teams fall just short of the magic 50 per cent mark which often measures how a team is competing against its opposition. Again, the statistics are for the seasons Tocchet coached from start to finish. They don\'t include the years he was brought in during the season as a replacement or interim coach. All statistics are also for five-on-five situations.

The Jack Adams Award-winning season saw all four metrics over 50 per cent, including the goals for percentage over a ridiculously good 57 per cent. When those four stats in 2023-24 came falling back down to earth the following season, Tocchet was feeling a bit more heat.

Season CF% GF% xGF% HDCF% 2009-10 47.66 46.08 48.22 48.53 2017-18 48.10 46.05 47.31 47.23 2018-19 48.85 45.49 50.08 48.09 2019-20 48.37 50.20 48.96 48.47 2020-21 48.75 46.01 48.64 47.57 2023-24 51.45 57.89 52.28 54.08 2024-25 49.08 48.24 49.50 48.18

Goals for, goals against

For goals for and goals against, the seasons where Tocchet replaced Barry Melrose in Tampa Bay and Bruce Boudreau in Vancouver weren\'t included as they were partial seasons for Tocchet. Of the seven seasons included, Tocchet\'s teams have cracked the top ten offensively only once as the 2023-24 Canucks were sixth overall with 279 goals. The next highest ranking in the remaining seasons was twenty-second when the 2019-20 Arizona Coyotes scored 190 goals in the slightly shortened season. On three separate occasions Tocchet\'s teams have ranked twenty-third in goals for (2009-10 with Tampa Bay, 2020-21 with Arizona and 2024-25 with Vancouver).

On the other side of the puck, Tocchet has been a bit better. Three of the seven seasons has seen his teams rank in the top six overall. In 2018-19 with Arizona gave up only 220 goals which put them fifth overall in goals against. The following season they tightened the screws a bit more, allowing only 185 goals which put them third overall. And in Tocchet\'s first full season with the Canucks (2023-24), Vancouver ranked fifth in goals against with 227 allowed. So in short, Tocchet has a slightly better grip on how to keep the puck out of the net than he does putting it in the net. How this defensive ranking fares with the franchise-worst goaltending the Flyers got this past season remains to be seen.

If the front office can somehow mend the goaltending issue this summer, things should be better and there will be more W\'s in that column. Or if Sam Ersson can somehow find himself most evenings north of the .900 save percentage versus south, then Tocchet\'s job (barring a string of injuries or key players out) gets a hell of a lot easier.

The power play should be better, the penalty kill too

The Flyers\' power play doesn\'t have Rocky Thompson anymore. In his opening press conference Friday, Tocchet said he had some ideas on how to possibly improve the awful man advantage but didn\'t get into specifics. The good thing is the last three full seasons he\'s coached, Tocchet\'s teams have been above the league average regarding the power play. As for the penalty kill, the previous five seasons he\'s coached his teams have been above average down a man. Of course, Flyers fans would plan a parade if the team somehow ended up with a 17 to 19 per cent power play effectiveness at season\'s end. But the numbers seem to indicate Tocchet knows how to not run a power play into the ground like previous people in charge did the last few seasons.

Season Power play efficiency % League average % Penalty kill efficiency % League average % 2009-10 17.78 18.95 78.02 81.05 2017-18 16.87 20.18 79.46 79.82 2018-19 16.28 19.78 84.96 80.22 2019-20 19.16 20.03 82.74 79.97 2020-21 20.79 19.78 80.84 80.22 2023-24 22.57 20.98 79.13 79.02 2024-25 22.52 21.64 82.59 78.36

Can shut the door after 40!

Although some skeptics might suggest it\'s unlikely a team leading after two periods can easily blow leads, nearly all of Tocchet\'s teams he coached for full seasons have been shutdown teams. That is to say they can hold onto a lead and get a win when they\'re winning after 40 minutes. And given the record Tocchet has, the statistics almost make you want to smile. It\'s perhaps even better than the near certainty the Flyers under Alain Vigneault in the 2019-20 season before the pandemic changed everything. It seems so long ago.

Granted, Tocchet\'s teams weren\'t exactly terrific in overcoming deficits after two periods. But we\'ll let the numbers speak for themselves (note: the situational records for Tocchet\'s first full season in Tampa Bay in 2009-10 weren\'t available). If Tocchet is able to get the Flyers to avoid some blown leads late in contests, those regulation wins could come in quite handy if they\'re fortunate enough to remain in the playoff chase this coming season.

Season Record when leading after two periods Record when trailing after two periods 2017-18 21-6-4 4-26-4 2018-19 29-1-1 3-26-4 2019-20 22-1-4 2-19-0 2020-21 12-2-0 3-16-3 2023-24 42-1-4 3-14-2 2024-25 27-1-8 3-20-5 TOTAL 153-12-21 18-121-18

So, in summary

The upside can be found in some of this information. If they Flyers are looking for a coach who knows how to maintain a lead with the opposing goalie pulled late in the third, they probably found their guy. If they are looking to improve their power play and special teams overall, no team he\'s led for an entire season has been under 16 per cent up a skater. So Tocchet\'s worst season with the power play is an improvement on 2024-25\'s Flyers fiasco. Same goes for the penalty killing, one of the better parts of their game under Tortorella until that lost its way and began to plummet.

Of course these numbers can show some examples of what Tocchet does well and what he needs to enhance. The key is for him to get the most out of the Flyers roster, however that looks when September\'s training camp rolls around. One thing is for certain: the Flyers have turned the page and are entering a slightly new chapter in the rebuild. Whether it pans our or not remains to be seen. Hiring Tocchet shouldn\'t hinder the development, but whether it\'s enough to get them to the promised land is another story.

Talking Points