We’ve crossed into the second half of the first round, and it’s time at last to check in with NTDP winger Wyatt Cullen.
Something of a later-developer, Cullen’s game took a massive step forward this season, and while he still has some areas in need of polishing up, the flashiness of his playmaking game and the upside that lies ahead for him has made for a very intriguing package, and has brought his rise up the major draft rankings to a meteoric rate.
Pre-draft rankings
Ranked #13 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)
Ranked #6 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #12 by The Athletic (Scott Wheeler)
Ranked #21 by Sportsnet (Jason Bukala)
Ranked #10 by Daily Faceoff
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Cullen is one of the fastest risers in this home stretch towards the draft, and for a lot of reasons, it’s not surprising to see that unfold. He’s one of next top playmakers to come out of the NTDP, and there’s a lot to like in his game, even if it is still a little raw.
He hit a pretty significant growth spurt before this past season (even more on that later), and the added range that this has left him with has made for a major boost to his offensive game, giving him more reach to receive passes in stride and continue playing with a high pace. It’s a good thing, too, because his game really does seem to be at its best when he’s using his motor. He’s an effective and confident as a puck carrier, and even though his straight line speed is a bit of a work in progress, he’s able to play with pace, and that allows him to break well into the offensive zone — his speed and clean crossovers help him to back up defenders well — cleanly, and to wheel and distribute in the zone.
He works well to set up an initial play, whether in setting up a scoring chance or off the strength of his own shot, but what’s perhaps even more intriguing is how, when the play doesn’t break for him, he doesn’t give up on it, and regroups quickly to steal the puck back from a defender, or make a heads up play to block down a clearing attempt at the blue line. It speaks to a high effort level in his game, that he’s not going to quit on a chance, but also for the quickness of his reading of play. There’s a willingness in his game to take an extra step to draw an extra defender to him, and the confidence to engage under that pressure if it means space opening up elsewhere on the ice, and the slickness of his passing means that he’s generally well positioned to hit a lane to a teammate even when he’s being defended tightly.
His game is effective when he’s playing with high pace, as we mentioned, but he’s also nicely willing to break from that pace, stopping and starting to break down coverage and open up more options for himself with the puck — a mature play, in some ways, because it’s hard to stop and get started again, but it makes for a more effective model of play, and it’s a real positive to see him having that willingness in his game already.
And finally, for those who put a lot of stock into a player’s pedigree, lest we forget, Cullen is the son of former NHLer Matt Cullen, so he has that and the wealth of advice that surely comes from that going for him as well (but that also feels kind of insane if we spend too long thinking about it, so we’re going to move right along now).
What’s not to like?
It bears repeating, though, that Cullen is in something of a weird spot in his development. After that big growth spurt, he’s still really learning what he can do with his new frame, and while that could open the door for some particular optimism about his upside, it does also leave some lingering questions about just how much runway that leaves him and in which areas of his game. That is, a team has to be careful not to overrate him based on a somewhat nebulous potential, as they could get burned if he doesn’t keep developing in his vision or his decision making as rapidly as some might hope or expect.
Because, as it stands, there are still some weaker points in his game. His physical game is still a little underdeveloped, with his level of engagement on the lighter end and the frequency of times when he gets pushed off of pucks more than optimal, but as he fills out his frame more when he moves up to a college program, we should see that come along for him. Outside of that, we’ve seen times when his favored style of play has worked against him — that is, while his patience with the puck does open up a lot of great playmaking flashes for him, sometimes that patience is detriment, and he can over-handle and skate himself into trouble with defenders. He can be a bit turnover prone, and he’ll have to polish out some of his decision making as he moves up in the levels. It’s nice to see those instincts working for him, but he has to balance out some of the risk in his game.
What’s more, his defensive involvement isn’t exactly anything to write home about, and even though his newly extended reach should make getting involved in that area a little more seamless for him, the instincts aren’t exactly high end presently, so that’s something the team that eventually drafts him is going to have to work with.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
All of this said, it’s worth acknowledging that Cullen might not be the most seamless theoretical fit within the Flyers’ system. After all, their organizational ladder is just about stuffed to the gills with productive wingers, and they’re already dealing with the struggles to find spaces for all of them, and adding another into the mix would make their jobs a little bit more difficult.
That said, it remains impossible not to see the potential in Cullen’s game, and on the flip side, adding another high-end playmaking winger to set up some of the purer shooters in this lineup might not be the worst thing. There’s enough in that toolkit and the potential upside with Cullen to make him a case where, if he does somehow drop all the way down to you at 21, you run to the proverbial podium to make that pick and figure out the rest of the logistics in a couple of seasons when he’s ready to jump into the NHL.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
This case is a particularly really interesting one to begin to unpack. On the one hand, we do tend to see this sort of thing happening every year, where public rankings shift the longer people have to look at them, and a prospect might make a rapid late climb up those rankings in a way that would have been surprising just a couple of months before, but that rise doesn’t always tend to coincide with a rise on teams’ private boards.
But, on the flip side, Cullen is rising on some of the boards that tend to be in line with those private rankings — for one, Corey Pronman has been pretty tapped into how the teams are actually going to draft over these last few years, and he has Cullen all the way up at 10th place on his board — and that is certainly eyebrow raising. We could certainly see a world where Cullen still slips out of that top-10, to be sure, but it’s looking increasingly likely that he’ll be taken well outside of the Flyers’ range.
What scouts are saying
“Upside is the name of the game for Cullen, and boy is there a lot of it. I liked Cullen a ton last season with the U17 team and for one of the youngest players in this draft, he has grown into one of the most impressive players on the NTDP, especially as a passer. Cullen has excellent offensive transition metrics across the board and is one of the most effective carriers in the class. His defensive game certainly needs work, but he has that Mitch Marner-esque ability to see the ice beyond what’s right in front of him. Working off defenders using skill to create passing lanes, hanging onto the puck for an extra split second to hit a secondary option, faking out opponents and changing lanes remarkably quickly, his on-puck talent is undeniably. A wicked wrist shot release is part of the equation too, but his selection needs work like many in this range. I’ve seen him play college opponents and he doesn’t look out of place, and at his best he is one of the most impressive NTDP players with the puck on his stick to say the least. He needs time to grow and round out his game, but he brings so, so much to build on in areas that really matter in this sport as an offensive player. I’m excited for his potential and while I might have him a bit lower at the end of the year, I still believe that his projection could be very, very positive.”
–Will Scouch, scouching.ca
“Cullen, a Minnesota commit, has a fascinating development story. The son of former NHLer Matt Cullen, he was tiny when he showed up to the national program (5-5 and 120 pounds). But he was also one of the youngest players in the class, and now that the growth has come, he’s up to 6-1, he still has a lot of the little-guy elements to his game, and all of a sudden, a ton of development opportunity in front of him still, as he gets stronger in his frame. He also tore his hip flexor off the bone this year due to all the growth, but had some of the best games from an offensive standpoint that I watched in this class this season when healthy. He was far and away this NTDP age group’s most talented player. He was also one of the standouts at this year’s Chipotle All-American Game, where he had a goal and two assists before tweaking his hip again, and had the puck on a string late in the year and into U18s. He’s an extremely shifty on-puck handler who blends shoulder fakes into agile cuts and very noticeable lateral mobility in and out of turns and cuts. He’s an offensive thinker who can pull you in with his blend of footwork and stick work and then beat you one-on-one the first time or open you up to put a puck into space for a teammate on the next. He has inside and outside edges in full control. He has deception. He can be direct or play out wide. His eyes are always up. And while there are times when he can play one-on-one too much and turn pucks over, you want him playing with freedom because he can make the big play. He was clearly more talented than his production last year indicated, and caught my eye dating back to U17 worlds in Sarnia when he was really small. When he’s at his best, he has the puck all night and is knifing through or past coverage to make things happen. There are some visual parallels between him and James Hagens (who, coincidentally, he models his game after). He’s a winger, a little less competitive and doesn’t have the same pedigree, but he’s also taller. Hagens went seventh, but I fully believe Cullen now belongs at the edge of the top 10 conversation.”
–Scott Wheeler, The Athletic
We’re moving right along here, and we’re welcoming J.P. Hurlbert to the poll — a skilled but ultimately quite decisive winger.
“Hurlbert is a very skilled scoring winger. He’s very creative and dynamic as a puck handler and passer while also having a good shot. With the puck, he looks like an NHL player, but his effort level and speed are average, and he can be pushed to the outside too easily. If you see his best games, he looks like a clear middle-six NHL winger who will point and help a power play, but the holes in his game are a concern for the NHL level and could frustrate coaches.”
-Corey Pronman The Athletic
