On the BSH Draft Board, we’re officially at the spot where the Flyers will pick on Friday, June 26: No. 21. The honor goes to Elton Hermansson on our draft board, a toolsy Swedish right winger who played the majority of the season with MoDo of the Swedish HockeyAllsvenskan.
Hermansson is unquestionably in the second tier of this year’s Swedish draft class. Below Ivar Stenberg and Viggo Bjorck, Hermansson fits in a tier with defenseman Malte Gustafsson and Alexander Command in this class. He’s projected to go all over the middle of the first round, and could certainly drop into the late twenties as well.
Hermansson was the top prospect on MoDo, and was one of the team’s most consistent drivers of offense. He’s gained a reputation as one of the better transition passers in the class, and while there are concerns over his engagement off the puck, there’s tons of skills here that are typical of a future Top-6 forward. In the middle of the first round, you’d be hard pressed to find a player that pushes play at the pace that Hermansson does. His unique blend of pace, skill, and fearlessness in cutting to the middle of the ice has all the makings of a quality NHL winger, so let’s dive into what makes Hermansson one of the more interesting players in this range.
Pre-draft rankings
Ranked #25 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #18 by Sportsnet (Jason Bukala)
Ranked #26 by The Athletic (Corey Pronman)
Ranked #14 by Chris Peters (FloHockey)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
In this range of the draft, you often run into forwards that are praised for their solid two-way play and have legitimate question marks as to whether they can make the leap offensively into the NHL. Guys like Jack Hextall, Ilia Morozov, and Alexander Command are the types of players where you can easily see the NHL-level floor in a team’s middle-six. For Elton Hermansson, you’re looking at the opposite archetype for players in this range – he’s got skill for days, and as it stands right now, he’s probably Top-6 or bust. His floor is probably career SHLer, and as we’ll get into later, there are clear things that Hermansson needs to improve upon if he is going to make the leap.
Offensively, Hermansson can beat you in so many ways. He’s a player that thrives with the puck on his stick, and makes things happen pretty much only if his team has possession. Stretch passes through the neutral zone, creative passing plays to spring a teammate on a rush, cross-ice feeds in the offensive zone, pretty much whatever has to be done to create space for his teammates. Hermansson also excels in puck protection in the offensive zone, and often holds onto the puck for just a second longer in order to create space for his linemates. In the play below, Hermansson (No. 17 for Sweden) nails a long transition pass all the way from the defensive zone.
Hermansson has quite the feel for how the offensive play is going to develop, and at least with the puck on his stick, there’s a legit Top-6 upside here. There’s just so many instances in Hermansson’s highlight reel where he beats guys 1-on-1 with his puck skills, and the same cannot be said for so many guys in the middle-to-late first round.
There’s also something to be said for Hermansson’s knack for driving to the middle of the ice. He’s consistently finding himself in dangerous areas, and goes back to those areas over and over again. There’s a fearlessness in Hermansson’s game and the confidence to keep going back to high-danger areas that is impressive. If he hits his peak potential, Hermansson’s going to be such a handful to deal with in the offensive zone. He does both the flashy and the dirty-but-good in the offensive zone, as you can see by the nifty deflection goal below that was all about Hermansson’s positioning.
What’s not to like?
Hermansson is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, and that means there’s quite a few downsides to the player right now. He kinda reminds us of the Justin Carbonneau discussions last year (19th overall to St. Louis). Carbonneau was a high-scoring, boom-or-bust winger from the QMJHL that really did nothing off the puck. He’s certainly more of a goal-scorer than Hermansson is right now, so it might be useful to think of Hermansson as a pass-first version of him, at least in terms of risk behind the pick.
Hermansson really needs to work on his play off the puck, and in the defensive zone. There’s just not a lot of overall engagement in the game for Hermansson when he’s not in possession of the puck, and his tendency to play a bit of hero puck might get in the way as he progresses in his development. That’s not to say that Hermansson needs to become a really strong defensive player to make it as a Top-6 winger. You can easily envision a world where Hermansson is the third guy on a line, and next to a strong play-driver all his off-puck issues are masked. If he can shore up his defense and off-puck responsibilities to a passable level? Hermansson’s floor probably raises quite a bit, and you’re looking at more of a surefire NHLer in the middle of the first round.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Does a toolsy, top-6 or bust winger sound like what the Flyers need right now? No, but Hermansson would add a ton of skill and upside to a system that needs high-end skill and upside. Also, Hermannson would be a good refresh in terms of the winger depth in the system. The Flyers have so many quality wingers at the NHL level, but the next class is sort of all graduating to the majors right now. Alex Bump, Denver Barkey, Porter Martone, etc. are all NHLers now. After that, the Flyers prospects at wing are Max Westergard and Shane Vansaghi types. Hermansson would immediately be the top wing prospect in the organization, and probably the offensive prospect with the most high-end upside.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
For sure. Hermansson might go slightly before the Flyers pick at 21, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Hermansson available as well. A lot of teams are averse to this type of player and opt to go with the safer, higher-ceiling guy, so we would say it is more likely than not that Hermansson is available at 21. If that does happen, it would be nice to see the Flyers take a real swing on a guy like Hermansson.
What scouts are saying
“Hermansson is another player whose rise this year has only complicated the top end of the class for me. He’s gone from an undeniably skilled and impressive scoring winger to a very capable play driver with great vision and playmaking ability, even under pressure. His transition game is exceptional at the HockeyAllsvenskan level, and on paper he might be one of the best passers through the neutral zone that I’ve tracked to this point. He’s a tremendous player when you look at the fundamentals, and while his defensive game is a question almost all-around, it isn’t so behind his offensive game that everything becomes problematic. Half his team’s offense comes from him somehow, and if he can just attack the middle of the ice a bit more with and off the puck there’s room for even more to like. He and [Mathis] Preston suffer from shot selection issues here and there, and while Preston’s raw shooting ability makes it a bit more tolerable, Hermansson isn’t quite there, and for that among other reasons I lean slightly more in Preston’s favour. If what you’re interested in is pure pace, skill and procedural offense, Hermansson is a great bet that has matured his game significantly to my eye in the last few months.”
== Will Scouch, scouching.ca
“Hermansson is a highly skilled winger. He makes a ton of plays through defenders and to his teammates, although he plays a bit selfishly at times. He’s a good skater who can play with pace. Without the puck, he’s just OK and can be pushed to the outside when he does have it. His compete level and inconsistency can be frustrating. He has top-six winger talent, but whether he will get there will depend on him figuring those issues out.”
— Corey Pronman, The Athletic
The next player added to the poll is another Swedish-born player – Alexander Command, a reliable two-way center from Orebro HK of the Swedish J20 Nationell.
“Despite his last name, Command doesn’t demand too much attention. Instead, he’s a smart, solid two-way center who makes everyone around him better. He doesn’t seem to have many off shifts, and that’s because he’s effective away from the puck, too. He reminds me a bit of Milton Gastrin – someone who can contribute offensively but also will win faceoffs, block shots and make moves with intent. I’ve liked him internationally, and he has played quite well against his own age group. I think he’s more of a third-liner in the NHL, but one who shouldn’t have many issues being effective.”
Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff
