Next up on the community draft board is a smooth moving defenseman from the Western Hockey League who put up gaudy point totals, Prince George’s Carson Carels.
Carels has hung around amongst the most highly-touted defense prospects for quite awhile in a draft that has no shortage of defenders projected to go in the top half of Round 1. He currently sits in a group alongside names like Alberts Smits, Chase Reid, and Keaton Verhoeff as the next wave of talent after the two uber-talented forwards at the top that have seemingly separated themselves.
Pre-draft rankings
Ranked #4 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #5 by Jason Bukala (Sportsnet)
Ranked #7 by Corey Pronman (The Athletic)
Ranked #7 by Scott Wheeler (The Athletic)
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Carels doesn’t really possess any flaws in his game that can be consistently exposed repeatedly at the junior level. He can move well, he is more than capable with the puck on his stick, and has the frame and the willingness to play a physically demanding style.
In addition to his well-rounded skillset, he has as impressive of a resume as you can have as a draft eligible defenseman. He became one of a handful of 17-year old defensemen in history to play for Canada at the U-20 World Juniors, was tied for second on his team in points, just six points behind 2024 first round winger Terik Parascak, and his 73 points in 58 games gave him by far the best points per game of any draft eligible WHL defender. The quantifiables are all there for Carels, and he’s played up to his potential up to this point.
His 20 goals from the made him one of just seven WHL defenders to eclipse that mark this year, and there’s a decent argument to be made that he was the MVP of a solid Prince George team that came third in the league’s Western Conference.
But beyond his offensive game, Carels is a very steady player to have on your back end. He stays in good defensive positions, and has an active stick that he uses to separate opponents from the puck while keeping everything on the outside. It’s a very sturdy defensive game, especially when Carels is defending off of the rush against players trying to face him up one on one. He uses his stick aggressively in order to disrupt the rhythm of attacking forwards, and has the footspeed to make recovery plays if he is beaten.
He has a level of poise uncharacteristic to someone his age, and he often takes an extra second to look for the most suitable pass even when he’s under duress. He scans the ice well, and seems to always know where he is in relation to the players around him. He seems like the type of defenseman who could be capable of 25 minutes a night, and his newly evolved offensive game has raised his ceiling to the point where he seems like a slam dunk top-10 pick.
What’s not to like?
While Carels checks pretty much all the boxes that make up a high-end defensive prospect, there’s some strange tendencies that you notice when you actually watch him play. While again, his skating speed is actually pretty impressive in a vacuum, there’s points where he seems like he is just on the edge of keeping pace with the attacker in front of him. He stays so calm in the face of pressure that he can sometimes find himself caught on the back foot, and opposing forecheckers seem to close the distance on him quite quickly.
There’s a potential for him to improve as he plays better competition and gets more used to a higher pace, but even if he did, I have some doubts about his ability to really be a Gustav Forsling-level “stopper” who is elite enough to be a top-pair option. And beyond that, there’s the issue of his offensive game not really being outstanding enough to translate at the next level. Carels’ production in his age 17 season puts him in rarified air, even exceeding the feats of a player like Bowen Byram, who mustered 71 points in his 67 games at age 17.
But I’m not certain that Carels’ calling card will ever be his offensive prowess, and that does alter the way you have to look at him as a prospect. There is a difference between facilitating offense and creating offense, and Carels may ultimately end up doing a bit more of the former by the time he gets to the NHL. He’ll need to have each aspect of his game translate to the NHL to be more than just a second pair defender, and there may be a chance that a team rues spending such a high selection on a player that just ends up being OK.
And finally, while he did make Canada’s World Junior roster, he really struggled at times and made some crucial mistakes while being their least used defender throughout the tournament. The entire team played below expectations, and a 17-year old is never going to look entirely comfortable in a U-20 tournament, but it is worth mentioning.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
If Carels hits his ceiling, he would be a great partner to put alongside someone like Travis Sanheim as a 1B or number two defenseman on the Flyers’ top pair. With a group including names like Sanheim, Carels, York, Drysdale, Ristolainen, Seeler, (and Oliver Bonk and David Jiricek around too), you would have an entire defensive roster full of capable puck movers. It would undoubtedly solidify the Flyers, and even give them a rotation of options to try out as a power play quarterback.
However, if he doesn’t reach his lofty potential, then he would like fall in line as a Cam York-like figure on the Flyers back end, and while you can always use an extra middle pair defender, it wouldn’t necessarily solve the problems that the Flyers have regarding a consistent partner for Sanheim, nor a real PP quarterback. Like most prospects, the fit would depend on just how good he could adjust to the NHL level, but at this moment in time, the Flyers do have more pressing needs.
Could the Flyers actually get him?
Carels looks set to be one of the first three or four defensemen drafted this year, and even in his worst-case scenario, he likely wouldn’t fall past the top 10 selections. Moreso, he really isn’t the sort of player that the Flyers would trade up for at this point in the timeline. A center who sneaks out of the top-10 or falls into the teens would be more conducive to the Flyers needs.
What scouts are saying
“Carels is an all-around defenseman who plays the game firmly and directly in all three zones and on both sides of the puck. His game is more about instinct than being super cerebral, and he can be a little sloppy at times with his stick placement/closeouts/decisions on the puck, but he’s quite toolsy and looks like a pro in a lot of ways. He has a big, hard slap shot that makes him a threat to score. He sees the play well as a passer and can break it out. He’s a strong skater who can push pucks down ice and also open up and use his edges. He can defend physically (there’s a meanness to his game, even) and cuts off a lot of plays with his timing early when he’s at his best. He’s firm, with a wide gait, though he’ll occasionally get beaten one-on-one laterally. He’s not a dynamic individual playmaker, but he can move and carry pucks down ice, has skill and skating, walks the line well, can beat the first layer and can hammer it.”
– Scott Wheeler
“Carels is a strong two-way defender. He’s a powerful, fluid skater who can get up the ice easily. He closes on checks well, using his feet and body to break up a lot of plays. He has an edge in his game and plays with a lot of physicality. Carels has good hands and vision and can activate into plays. He doesn’t project as a PP1 type in the NHL, but he should generate offense. He could be a great top-four defenseman who will play significant NHL minutes.”
–Corey Pronman
“I’ve come around on Carels a bit this year, but not because I think he’s some kind of elite offensive dynamo like his production would indicate. He does have bonkers rates off playmaking attempts for a defenseman and generates a good amount of shot assists as well as peppering the net with plenty of shots of his own from the blueline, but I just don’t think that side of his game truly translates as an offensive NHL defenseman. He wouldn’t be the first productive CHL defenseman to regress into more of a solid defensive one, and I believe this very well could be the trajectory, which puts him significantly lower on my list than everyone else. The skill and explosive feet necessary for that kind of a defender just isn’t there to my eye, and a lot of his offensive attempts that aren’t point shots seem to be throwing pucks into the middle of the ice with a hope and a prayer, which is difficult to find repeatable long term. Think names like Bogosian or Ceci and you might see more of where I’m coming from. Say what you will about those players, but they’ve had long careers and keep getting jobs, yes, even Cody Ceci, for their defensive results. In Carels’ case, this has been the area that has really jumped out at me. I’m often very scared of how flat-footed and inactive Carels can be on defensive transitions, something that is often borne out in the data, but the way he monitors his lane to the net, closes gaps to opponents and erases players with physical energy is really strong, and definitely projectable. I can see why NHL teams are really interested in this player, but as I’ve said many times, my gamble this year is that the CHL has taken a big step back and will continue to do so, which may completely reshape how we evaluate players, and I’m betting that Carels might be a product of a low quality of competition, at least offensively. Defensively, I believe in him and he’s right here with the other defense-forward defenders I like from around the world, but he’s almost certainly gone before this point, and time will tell whether my gamble was a good one.”
–Will Scouch
Next up, we’re picking highly skilled Czech winger out of the OHL’s Peterborough Petes, Adam Novotny.
“He surpassed the 30-goal mark as an OHL rookie with Peterborough and easily finished as the Petes’ No. 1 scorer. Novotný loves to get the puck on net by any means necessary, and he’s a strong skater, too. I like his two-way work – he’s a full-time team player. There’s heavy top-six potential here.”
–Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff
