While there are plenty of salary cap ramifications from possible re-signings, buyouts, retained salaries and players on LTIR, Flyers’ general manager Danny Briere is also going to have to make a few more decisions with four players who will become restricted free agents at the end of the 2024-25 season. The dilemma Briere will face isn’t a new one for any NHL general manager. Take them to salary arbitration if the gap between the player and the team is vast? Offer the player a “bridge deal,” a shorter contract giving the team more time to see if they are a long-term fixture? Or gamble on the player with a longer, costlier contract offer?
Both player agents and teams often use comparables for measuring how a player’s play on the ice calculates to their compensation. But with the “dead cap” era over and the cap ceiling rising by $4.5 million this season, negotiations could be slightly tricker for Briere as RFAs (and their agents) want a cut of that increase.
The four main Flyer RFAs when the 2024-25 season ends are Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster, Morgan Frost and Cam York. Each player brings unique skill sets that may or may not be a fit for the ongoing rebuild or part of the core down the road. But we’ll do our best to see what each player could command as an RFA and whether or not a bridge contract or a lengthy, cap-friendly contract would be in the best interest of the team. Remember all of these players could be resigned as of this coming July 1 if both sides can come to an agreement.
Noah Cates
Noah Cates, 25, was rarely if ever in John Tortorella’s doghouse last season. After nine points in his 16 game stint back in 2021-22, Cates had a strong 2022-23 with 38 points (13 goals, 25 assists) over 82 games. Winning and earning Tortorella’s trust, Cates missed 23 games this past season and registered 18 points (six goals, 12 assists). He’ll turn 26 this coming February and currently has an AAV of $2.625 million. He will also be arbitration eligible in the event both sides can’t work out a deal and has a qualifying offer amount of $2.625 million. Cates elected to go to arbitration prior to both sides reaching a deal in July, 2023.
In terms of comparables, Cates could dream of a Ross Colton contract ($4M AAV over four years) but that would probably be a stretch for Briere to even consider unless Cates matched or eclipsed his personal best season in 2024-25. Colton, who signed the deal in July 2023 when he was 26, had 40 points with the Avs last season, his first after being traded from Tampa. Prior to that he recorded 39 and 32 points with the Lightning the previous two seasons. Missing only six games the last three seasons, Colton (who also elected for arbitration in 2023 before inking his contract) has been a steady third line forward on Cup contenders. Signing Cates to such a deal would see him become a UFA at age 30.
Another comparable contract and forward is Nicolas Roy of the Vegas Golden Knights. Roy, 27, developed into another vital bottom-six piece of Vegas the last three seasons with 39, 30 and 41 points respectively. Roy also had 11 points in 22 games during the Golden Knights’ Cup winning playoff drive in 2022-23. In terms of contract Roy signed a 5-year, $15 million deal in August, 2022. He was 25 at the time of the signing. Currently he’s giving the Knights value for $3 million AAV with another three years left at that price. In relation to Cates that seems like a deal that would definitely be in Briere’s wheelhouse in terms of cap hit. Cates would be a UFA when he turned 29 at the end of such a contract.
On the whole, if Cates remains a strong two-way player Tortorella covets, remains healthy, and can see an uptick in his production, then the Flyers would be foolish to not resign him. A three-year deal at a cap hit somewhere between Roy’s and Colton’s would probably be optimal. In short, provided he has a strong season, this should be one of the easier negotiations Briere has among the four.
Tyson Foerster
There were a few bright spots for the Flyers in 2023-24, and probably none were brighter than Tyson Foerster’s emergence. Although looking like he was snakebitten at times trying to score, the 22-year-old winger ended up with 20 goals and 13 assists for 33 points in his rookie year. Foerster was in the top-10 in rookie scoring and only saw Connor Bedard and Marco Rossi score more (Foerster was tied for third in rookie goals with Arizona (now Utah) forward Logan Cooley). Foerster signed his three-year entry level contract in October 2020 with an AAV of $863,333. His qualifying offer for his next contract is $874,125.
Much depends on what Foerster does this season in determining what he might be asking for with his next contract. If Foerster were to blossom and nearly double his production, it would almost mirror Buffalo forward Dylan Cozens’ progression. Cozens (the seventh pick overall in 2019) had 38 points in his first full season before getting 68 points in his second year. In February, 2023 Cozens, then 22 at the time, inked a seven-year, $49.7 million deal for an AAV of $7.1 million. If Foerster had a terrific 2024-25 in terms of production it would still be highly unlikely Briere would think of giving Foerster that kind of money. A cap hit in the range of $7 million would be a huge gamble but would put Foerster at age 30 when he became a UFA.
Perhaps Foerster could fall in line with two other comparables. One of those potential comparables is Utah forward Lawson Crouse. Crouse, 26, has found his niche with three straight seasons of at least 20 goals and having two seasons of over 40 points. Crouse signed a five-year, $21.5 million deal in August, 2022 for an AAV of $4.3 million. With a rising cap ceiling, some more money coming off the books with buyout contracts ending and perhaps some trades that could give Briere more wiggle room, a roughly $4 million or $4.25 million AAV could look quite fetching. This is a comparable deal which would give Foerster some term while also not being a ridiculous overpay for a 22-year-old entering his sophomore season who showed upside this past season. A similar deal in terms of length would make Foerster a UFA at age 28.
Another comparable although one which could cause some angst for Flyers fans is another Flyer in Joel Farabee. The forward was 21 when he signed a six-year, $30 million deal under previous general manager Chuck Fletcher in September 2021. With three more years at that cap hit, and with highs in goals, assists and points this season, Farabee’s deal doesn’t quite look like an albatross it might have at one point. A similar six-year deal at roughly that cap hit would be tempting for Foerster. A six-year deal would begin for Foerster when he’s 23 years old, meaning he’d be 29 when he’d become a UFA. As long as the deal didn’t come with a full no trade or no movement clause it’s something probably both sides would be pleased with.
Morgan Frost
After one of the more downhill/uphill seasons for a Flyer not named Sean Couturier this season, Morgan Frost went from doghouse to a quasi-penthouse in John Tortorella’s eyes. A chat between the two in early January — something Tortorella hoped would transpire — saw Frost given more responsibility and becoming the team’s top center. Although he took a slight dip in terms of points (41, down from 46 in 2022-23), Frost made the decision the Flyers still have in front of them regarding him that much harder with a decent 71 games (the other 11 were scratches in the first half of 2023-24). Frost turns 26 next May and is in the last year of a two-year, $4.2 million deal signed in September, 2023 ($2.1 million AAV). A qualifying offer of $2.4 million would be needed to retain his rights at the end of next season.
It still remains unclear what the future holds for Frost in terms of whether he’s part of a trade package for this coming draft or during the offseason. The fact Frost wasn’t present to start last year’s training camp after a contract dispute didn’t put him on a good footing to start. Additionally, the fact the Flyers signed the forward to a mere one-year, $800,000 deal in 2022 didn’t exactly scream to all that Frost was a lock to be a Flyer when things hopefully turn around and they are contenders. Last season, Frost proved some things, but was it enough to warrant a lengthy contract here?
Probably one contract which could be palatable for both parties and a decent comparable would be Washington’s center Dylan Strome. Strome signed a five-year, $25 million contract with the Capitals in February, 2023 and a month shy of Strome’s 26th birthday. A $5 million AAV last season — his first year of the contract — saw Strome register 27 goals and 67 points, about the same production as his previous season with Washington (23 goals, 65 points). If Frost’s production took a positive arc where 55 to 60 points was expected then this certainly would be a suitable deal and length, taking Frost to age 31 when he’d become a UFA.
Another comparable would probably be Boston’s Pavel Zacha. Zacha was 25 when he signed his four-year, $19 million deal with the Bruins in January, 2023. He has a $4.75 AAV through the end of 2026-27. His first year of this deal saw the center put up 21 goals and 38 assists which was a career high of 59 points. The only minor snag would be a modified No Trade Clause which is a 10-team list in the first two years of the contract and a eight-team list the final two years of the deal. If Frost agreed to such a deal he would become a UFA at age 30.
The jury is still out on Frost in some areas. And some things he has no control over including if he’s trade bait, if Couturier returns to his Selke-esque self next season or if the Flyers acquire a top line center. This is probably the toughest question facing Briere this offseason.
Cam York
With Ivan Provorov gone and Travis Sanheim almost shown the door last summer, Cam York would’ve had a huge role to play last season. He did play a huge role often paired with Travis Sanheim and seemed to thrive this season as a steadying blueliner. After fans were screaming for blood after he didn’t make the team to start 2022-23, York has become another bright spot in the past year. In July, 2023 York signed a two-year $3.2 million deal when he was 22. He has a year left on the deal with a very favorable $1.6 million AAV.
The Flyers look to have three known quantities on the back end beyond 2024-25 in Sanheim, Jamie Drysdale and Nick Seeler. And look for York to become the fourth. Although his trade value might not be higher at such a paltry cap hit and playing over 22 minutes a game as it is now, it is probably wise to keep a 23-year-old blueliner that assistant coach Brad Shaw can continue to develop. In terms of comparable contracts, there are a few which could make sense for both York and Philadelphia. Depending on his play, locking York up at this still youthful age with a rising cap ceiling each year looking more certain could be almost a steal.
One such contract is Chicago’s Alex Vlasic. The defenseman signed a six-year, $27.6 million deal this past April when Vlasic was 22 (he turned 23 June 5). Vlasic has 97 games of NHL experience, 76 of them this past season where he had two goals and 14 assists for 16 points on a hideous Chicago team. By comparison York had two goals and 18 assists in 54 games in 2022-23, essentially his first full season after 30 games in 2021-22. Having York set to make $4.6 million AAV until he’s 30 years old would seem to be value. And if for some reason things did not work out, a relatively frugal cap hit with term is probably something other NHL general managers wouldn’t hesitate to inquire about in trades.
Another comparable that is a little longer and a wee more pricey is Colorado’s Sam Girard. Girard was 21 years old when he signed a seven-year, $35 million deal in July 2019. Girard has fallen somewhere between 25 to 35 points for most of the contract while adding just a handful of goals each season. A seven-year deal would see York turn 31 when the contract ended, and with a rather economical $5 million AAV (again taking into account the cap ceiling rising annually for the next handful of years).
It would appear York, much like Foerster, has probably the best chance of seeing a lengthy deal that would seem logical and appeasing to both sides of the negotiation.
